(Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)
While ‘s upcoming expected opt-out will remain the most pressing Yankee roster issue until it’s resolved, I expect both the big lefty and the Yankees to reach an agreeable conclusion in relatively short order, and thus won’t be losing too much sleep over the “will he” or “won’t he” hysteria.
However, I’m a bit surprised at the number of comments I’ve seen expressing an opposition to the Yankees re-upping one of the best pitchers in baseball. Postseason losses can do crazy things to a person, and though Sabathia not pitching the way we expected him to certainly stings, some perspective is needed before we go running one of the best pitchers to ever don pinstripes out of town.
For those worrying about cost and years of a new Sabathia contract, RLYW’s SG has you covered, ultimately concluding that something on the order of around six years, $138 million should represent a fair deal for both sides. Without delving too heavily into the numbers, that looks good to me.
While ordinarily I’d dive in and create a few charts of my own, I don’t think you need fancy graphs to tell you just how great Sabathia’s been. Instead, I’ll just share some facts that you may not have been aware of:
- Since 1969, CC Sabathia has the fourth-lowest ERA (3.18) among Yankee starting pitchers making a minimum of 101 starts with the team, ahead of such hallowed Yankee starters as , , , , El Duque, , and . In fact, the next best “dynasty” starter ERA is Wells’ 3.90.
- Though we know pitcher wins are pointless, Sabathia also has the highest winning percentage of the 17 pitchers that meet the 101-start criteria.
- Sabathia has the third-best K/9 of this group, after Cone and Clemens.
- Since his rookie season in 2001, Sabathia has the fourth-lowest ERA (3.51) in all of baseball among the 14 pitchers that have made a minimum of 300 starts, behind only , and .
- Since joining the Yankees prior to the 2009 season, he has the 10th-lowest ERA (3.18) of the 71 pitchers that have made a minimum of 75 starts since then, and 4th-lowest among pitchers still in the American League.
- I know xFIP isn’t an ERA estimator for the following season, as league average home run rate changes every year; however, I still think it’s noteworthy that in 2009 Sabathia’s xFIP was 3.77 and he finished the 2010 season with a 3.18 ERA; and in 2010 his xFIP was 3.63 and he finished this past season with an even 3.00 ERA. His 2011 xFIP was 3.02, and while it’s probably not realistic to expect Sabathia to turn in another 3.00-ish ERA, I don’t think anyone would be surprised if he did.
I’m sure I can find more, but the fact remains that CC Sabathia has been one of the top 10 best pitchers on the planet during the last decade, and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect several more years of greatness, especially when you consider he just posted the lowest full season American League ERA of his career, not to mention a Cy Young-caliber season. Even if he devolves into a Burnett-ian mess near the end of his new deal, this is one instance where the team should overpay if need be as Sabathia’s given us no reason to think he’ll be anything other than an elite pitcher for the foreseeable future.
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From this fans perspective I would like to see 5 years guaranteed at say $125M and the 6th year be some sort of vesting option. Be it Cy Young voting or innings pitched just something that doesn’t automatically guarantee the 6th year from day 1. It seems to me that would be fair. And if CC truly is interested in staying with the Yankees that shouldn’t be a big issue for him. Plus the fact realistically how many teams are in a position of offer CC anywhere near that type of contract. Even the Red Sox with all the long term contracts they have on the books now and one’s certain to come up in the near future like Ellsbury I doubt they would want to take on a 6 year deal. Also even without CC the Red Sox payroll in 2012 should approach $175M if not more. The Phillies are pretty much maxed out salary wise. The Cubs are a disaster. They Angels they aleady have 2 pitchers (Haren and Santana)that in the next year or 2 will command some serious money. Plus Weaver’s new contract, and they still don’t have a GM. So it would seem that CC’s landing places are somewhat limited if the Yankees make him a good faith offer.
Had Game 1 not been rained-out, a lot of the haters would be shrieking that we need to sign CC no matter the cost. He was dealing, and it looked like we were heading toward an epic performance. Then he comes back on two days rest and loses his command, and here we are with all kinds of questions about his ability to perform in the postseason.
The Yankees need CC as much as any single player going forward. Both the free agent and trade markets for a top line starter look less than ideal and the Yanks farm is stocked either with middle to back end pitching talent, or in the case of the Banuelos and Betances, great arms that are by no means a sure thing. The Yanks don’t need to go ARod nuts with this contract, but they need to make sure he’s in pinstripes next season.
WE ARE NOT HATERS AT ALL..just looking at a contract that could cripple us again if we just throw years and money..front end is fine, it is the last four years that can kill our payroll.and the rain out is a non issue he labored all sept.
If the Dodgers ownership issues ever get resolved perhaps CC would find himself courted by a west coast team. That however is a remote event.
The Yankees need CC to anchor the front end of the rotation for the next five years. If that means CC lands a 5 yr, 125 ML new deal , then that’s the price we’ll pay. As much as I want to avoid a 6th yr guarantee , a vesting option should be on the table. Its not crazy to assume CC can still be above avg five years from now.
or his arm dies..
Sign him up for 5 years and 135 million. Hes a pitcher who hits spots, not a thrower who relies on velocity even though he does have good stuff so I expect him to age well. The man has a rubber arm and gives a ridiculous amount of innings. The Yankees need him, and need him badly given the fact that every other starter currently on the roster ranges from question mark to a now perpetual lock to disappoint. People act like Nova is a number two. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats, doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses, hes like a Twins pitcher. I would do a backflip if he became a Chien Ming Wang, or Brandon Webb, but that’s his ceiling and he’s not a lock to hit it. As for Phil Hughes and AJ Burnett well…yeah.
135mil????27mil per..just make him and afraud partners in the yanks..it would be cheaper. i respect your opinion and wanting to keep a number one guy, but take all the long term guys we have now, look at the return in the years to come..tex , arod , jeter, burnett, thats about 87mil per now add CC long term..it is not my money but CC will not get that from anyone ..unless the yanks out bid the yanks
The Yankees don’t get hurt by handing out lots of money nearly as much as other teams obviously. However no one gets away with a bad contract that lasts a long time. My thinking is to offer more money in order to avoid giving a 6th or 7th year which is more damaging than the money. Thinking from his agents prospective if Lee got a 6 year deal at 32 whats CC going to ask for at 31? Hes opting out of 4 year contract to sign an extension of only 1 more year? I doubt it. The negotiations start at a new 7 year deal.
One year in length but potentially about $35M in money. And potentially a 6th year with vesting. Which could bring the total up to about $140M plus. 5 years at $125M plus or minus or 6 years at $140M plus with vesting. Not a bad deal, in my opinion. Certainly either one is better then what he’s opting out of 4 years with $92M remaining. And either deal would make it difficult for another team to match, not impossible but difficult.
i see your point on years and dollars..lee should not be used as a base line..i know you will of coarse.. CC is no cliff lee..post season pressure goes easy to lee..we need to take in all the contracts going forward.. it is not just CC..we need to find at least one more starter this year.#2guy.. next years market opens up for more talent..i say he opts so long..he has been very lucky with carrying all that weight for that long..as the season went on..so did is waist line..he just don’t care about staying fit for the post season..it will hurt to let him go, just close your eyes and say carl pavano..we can get stuck with arod,he will never hit .300 or hit 30 homers again..let alone in the same year..tex will never hit .280 again..he turned into giambi..and will never try and hit for average he know 500 homers is in his future and that is his ticket to the hall.at the teams expense.AJ is a mental case..jeter will never get 180 or more hits again..and he has a problem throwing on a fly to first base..only going to get worse..three more years of that..we need to give cano a hugh contract coming up..along with grandy.. and we need pitching and a big bat..we are stuck with this team..and bloated salaries..we need our kids to come through..look what happened to the twins..they are done..long contracts to the M&M boys..that team is done for years to come.unless those two come back to form..and that is not happening..michael i know you want to secure a front line guy. but we can not have a star at every position..it has never worked..check stink sox 2011..lets throw some money around after 2012.. oh and soriano lets hope he is dumb enough to opt out..if he opts out sign CC..I WILL THEN GO ALONG
I understand your point. The Yankees will soon resemble the Yankees of the early to mid 2000′s after the contracts to Cano and Granderson are handed out (maybe not to Granderson but thats a totally separate issue I wont get into right now). Were not getting out of the ARod or Tex contract either. All the more reason I believe we need to rely on our farm systerm so we have cost controlled young guys going forward hence my keep Montero stance. You and I agree on most points, but I am just perhaps too optimistic that CC will still be a good pitcher going forward. Even when near the end of the deal he isn’t a true ace I believe he can be a Buehrle or Pettite type pitcher. Solid lefty who can still give you lots and lots of innings. By then hopefully Banuelos, Betances, Darvish, one of the other kids on the farm, or hopefully they sign Roberto Osuna to a minor league deal. He looks potentially ace worthy
I’m in favor of signing him as long as it’s not higher than their offer to Cliff Lee. That said, I don’t think it’s outrageous to be concerned with locking him up for 6 or more years given all the innings he’s thrown. Back when the Yankees signed him, there was a contingent of fans that were hoping for him to opt out and the Yankees not to have to pay for the back end years of that contract. It might have made more sense if AJ was a lot better and Hughes had turned into a reliable front of the rotation starter. That’s not the situation though and there’s not a lot out there on the free agent front. Still, it’s not likely to be a great contract.
MICHAEL how about this give that 27mil to fielder or puljos..trade tex
Hey there are very few players I wouldn’t trade in the right deal. However I don’t know if anyone takes on that contract. We would have to eat a substantial portion of the deal and then pay a large sum for a Fielder or Pujols. That’s a whole lotta dinero tied up in on first base.
Larry, with all due respect I’ll have to disagree with the new mantra of ‘win totals are pointless’. If a pitcher averages more innings per game and can still pitch well in those later innings he and the team will win more games. The bullpen is also saved, and maybe the team would benefit from an extra bench player. As for comparing CC to Guidry (and others), check this out, carefully:
I’ve watched many games that CC and Guidry pitched, and between his “stuff”, guts, and innings pitched, Guidry was better, and it’s not even close. Just sayin’……….