At What Point Do You Pass On Sabathia?

By On October 11, 2011 · 18 Comments · In General Musings

C.C. Sabathia will opt-out of his contract and become a free agent. The Yankees would love to have him at his former salary for the duration of his former contract. Unfortunately, so we a lot of teams, many of whom have a lot more budget room than the Yankees. His new contract could cost as much as $130 million, or more. At some point, there may be a price too high for the Yankees to pay.

What is that price? We all know how good Sabathia is, how heavy he is, and how much he has pitched lately. He’s 30 years old, and will eventually start to decline. Our recent experiences with Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, and A.J. Burnett should teach us that no how great a player is, they will eventually show the effects of age. C.C. is no different, and this next contract would force the Yankees to be on the hook for some of his decline years.

To make matters worse, the Yankees have to deal with huge liabilities to Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira in the long term, and A.J. Burnett and Derek Jeter in the medium term, not to mention potential long term deals to Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson. If the Yankees aren’t careful, they could wind up with an aging, zombie roster and no financial space to bring in new blood. They’ll always be able to afford to run out 8 or 9 expensive players every day, but they can’t pay everyone $20 million.

The hardest part about this while question is that I can’t imagine the Yankees seriously contending in 2012 if Sabathia signs elsewhere. At best, they could replace him with someone like C.J. Wilson, or try to swing a desperate trade for an ace, losing Jesus Montero or another potential 2012 contributor. Their already-shakey starting rotation would be even thinner. However, an albatross contract would start to endanger the Yankees in the second half of this decade.

I’m willing to throw out a number: 5 years, $120 million. He gets the exact same deal that Cliff Lee got from the Phillies. He gets a raise, but only stays on the payroll for one additional year. Lee also has a vesting option, and that’s something I would be very comfortable giving to Sabathia based upon innings pitched, or even Cy Young voting.

So, am I wrong? I got a lot of flak last offseason for wanting to stay away from a monster contract for Lee. What should be our team’s final offer?

 
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18 Responses to At What Point Do You Pass On Sabathia?

  1. TmHnz says:
    October 11, 2011 at 1:23 pm

    I don’t see CC declining for a long while. First of all, he has great command, so even if he lost a few MPH off his FB, he’d still be a frontline starter. Secondly, I look at it this way: if he wasn’t on the team and was an impending FA from another club, I’d want the Yankees to sign him, and sign him now.

    But he does have to work on his conditioning. The one concern was his breakdown at the end of the year. Part of me thinks that it was the 6 man rotation that screwed him up, but another part wonders if he wore down due to being out of shape. It can’t be both, though. It would be a contradiction to say both. You can’t argue the 6-man rotation screwed him up, since that would’ve allowed him to pitch more and at the same time, question his condition. Tricky situation.

    Either way, if he decided to opt out, I’d hope they make a reasonable effort to make sure he remains where he is. And while I respect the athlete’s plight to make as much $ as they can during the window to do so, I’d be lying if I said I wouldn’t be disappointed if he opted out, if only because of the supposed love he has for the area and the charitable work he has done. If you love it here so much, then it’s simple – don’t opt out.

    Reply
  2. Cris Pengiucci says:
    October 11, 2011 at 1:33 pm

    I’m with you on 5 yrs/120 mil. The vesting option may make CC consider it. I’d also be OK adding a small amount of additional money over the life of the contract (2.5-5 mil) if that’s what it takes. I get uncomfortable with a guaranteed 6 years.

    Reply
  3. Regis says:
    October 11, 2011 at 1:33 pm

    The Yanks will sign him for 6 years and $150M.

    Reply
  4. UYF1950 says:
    October 11, 2011 at 1:49 pm

    I’m all for 5 years and say $125M total. As for the vesting option I can see something along the lines of of Cy Young voting based on years 4 and 5 but not at the $25M average. I’d say the 6th year if it is vested is at say $15M. So net, net 5 years $125M or 6 years if vested option for a total of $140M. But no way a 6 year straight deal from day 1.

    BTW EJ, unless I’m wrong I think CC turned 31 this past July not 30.

    Reply
  5. sm says:
    October 11, 2011 at 2:00 pm

    The decline already started. More than 2 or 3 years would be risking another AJ.

    Reply
    • JoshTFL says:
      October 11, 2011 at 2:03 pm

      Based on what? Highest fWAR as a Yank this season and arguably his best season ever with respect to strength of competition. So many of those NL starts were against junk teams.

      Reply
    • JD says:
      October 11, 2011 at 4:37 pm

      AJ was never that good to begin with. CC with normal decline is still better than AJ.

      Reply
  6. JoshTFL says:
    October 11, 2011 at 2:02 pm

    7/161

    Reply
  7. Professor Longnose says:
    October 11, 2011 at 2:18 pm

    Maybe they could get Sabathia to eat Burnett.

    Reply
  8. jai Nitai says:
    October 11, 2011 at 3:16 pm

    How about a trade. Burnett, Noesi, and 1 other for Zambrano and Garza. Zambrano’s main crime is that he hates teammates who gave the appearance of slacking. 1 year of Zambrano, an intense competitor, versus 2 years of Burnett, who is a great teammate but a semi reliable pitcher. Plus Garza for two young pitchers with Big league experience. Zambrano will be pitching for his next big contract and will be motivated.

    Reply
  9. Marek says:
    October 11, 2011 at 3:21 pm

    In the shape he’s in I can’t see going more than five years guaranteed. Even that I think will buy some decline.

    Reply
  10. Adam B. says:
    October 11, 2011 at 4:18 pm

    make no mistake, they will be the highest bidder for him, they will whatever it takes… problem is that CC has made money and won a ring so if he wants to move back to the west coast like he always has, we are in trouble…

    us having CC made it so we didn’t HAVE TO SIGN LEE… This year is different.

    Reply
  11. Michael P. says:
    October 11, 2011 at 7:36 pm

    He will get a 6 year deal for around 140 million most likely…and I am fine with that. I agree with TmHnz, he isn’t reliant on his “stuff” the way Burnett is. CC is a pitcher, not a thrower, and is an absolute horse. Even in the latter stages when his stuff declines to that of a number 4 starter, you know he is capable of giving you lots of innings. The man has a rubber arm and there is no way you can say that you are in it to win the WS every year with a straight face if you don’t make an attempt to bring him back.

    Reply
  12. bornwithpinstripes says:
    October 11, 2011 at 10:53 pm

    as soon as he opts out!!!! and i tell him can you get soriano to do the same..we will give traveling money for both of you.

    Reply
  13. bornwithpinstripes says:
    October 11, 2011 at 10:55 pm

    yanks once again will bid vs themselves

    Reply

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