Photo courtesy of the NY Daily News
This is something of a response to Mike’s piece on Monday, so if you haven’t read it already I encourage you to do so. This is an area that I’ve written about in the past, and in my view I think he and some of my fellow TYA writers miss the big picture on this topic. This is an off season where some top flight pitching should be available, and you’ll have to give something good in order to get something good. Montero as a DH simply means he doesn’t have as much value to the Yankees as he does to another team that could play him everyday at Catcher or (more likely) his eventual home at 1B. Let’s put a few things on the table. We all know the Yanks love Russell Martin and Tex isn’t going anywhere. So the only long term place for him to get regular ABs is at DH.
Now lets look at the 2011 leaders in WAR at DH
Next the 2011 leaders in WAR at 1B
A top flight DH is worth 3-4 WAR annually. A top flight 1B is worth 5-7 WAR. If Jesus can be just average defensively at either Catcher (unlikely) or 1B (more likely) then his bat could make him a very solid asset. If he’s another Victor Martinez and can play a little of both, albeit not that well, he’s still valuable. V-Mart has been a 3-5 win player for most of his career.
Now let’s say a team has a 5+ WAR pitcher who’s contract is expiring that they can’t re-sign. The Yanks have a desperate need for that asset, and will be better off as a team having that pitcher on their roster as opposed to Montero. Montero’s a square peg on the Yankee roster, so if you use him to fill a need it maximizes his value to the Yankees and the team who trades for him in the deal. That’s what trades are all about in an ideal sense. By contrast, he would be wasting away at DH, losing anywhere from 2-3 WAR per year in value even if he was among the best in the game, which frankly is a big assumption.
Now let’s look at next year’s FA list. It’s loaded with top flight pitchers. As we saw with Johan Santana, Zach Grienke and others the trend in baseball is to deal a pitcher that you think you can’t sign a year before their deal expires to maximize their trade value. Some notable names are that could become available this offseason are Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Shaun Marcum, Zach Grienke, John Danks, Dan Haren, James Shields and Jonathan Sanchez. What’s more, all are between the ages of 27 and 31 this coming season. I’m sure we all like some more than others for varying reasons and may or may not be willing to include Jesus for some and not others. But understand there will be plenty of competition for good pitching if/when one becomes available. The Royals have stated they will be shopping for a starter and their farm system is considered to be among the best in the game. If the Ranger lose Wilson, they’ll be shopping for a starter as well and have a farm system on par with the Royals.
One counter argument I’ve heard is that with Alex and Derek aging the Yanks need a young, middle of the order type bat to replace their declining production. As the 2011 season showed, the Yanks already have that in Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson. Cano is already the best pure hitter on the team. Grandy would be a #3 or #5 anywhere but on the Yanks. A 3-4-5 of Grandy-Cano-Tex is one of the best in the game, and more than enough to supply the team with plenty of production going forward. The transition away from Alex has already happened. I suppose one could argue you never have enough hitting. But if you value hitting over pitching, which is the case presented here, then you’re ignoring the biggest need on the team. The 2012 Yankees need a #1 or 2 starter more than they need a DH, especially since it appears Alex will be spending more time there going forward.
As Mike pointed out in his Monday piece, don’t be seduced by Montero’s September numbers. He was used very carefully in situations where they knew he could be successful. When playing everyday, facing tough righties on a nightly basis he’s not going to wOBA .421. I’m not saying he won’t hit, most scouts and the Yanks think he will. But he will come down to Earth. I suspect that had he played everyday with the Yanks, his warts would have shown and the prospect of dealing him would go down more smoothly. I also think we should tread very carefully on assuming Montero will be an elite bat. He’s had a grand total of 68 carefully selected PAs in his young career. He struggled at times in the minors, bored or not. He hasn’t even had enough time in the majors to lose his prospect status. Assuming elite production from Mr Montero is a leap that in my view displays a gross lack of perspective. Look at what happened to Jason Heyward this year. Jack Z (who has an extensive background in player development) chose Justin Smoak over Montero, and Smoak has been anything but elite thus far. Never forget that even the top 1-20 prospects have a bust rate of roughly 1 in 3, and most who do pan out are just average producers at the MLB level. Odds are 2-1 against being elite. I’ll take proven MLB production over those odds any day of the week, and so will any smart GM. That’s why it will cost more than just Montero to land a high end starter.
I know this is going to come across as harsh to many fans who have been anxiously awaiting the arrival of the best prospect the Yanks have had in years. But putting myself in the shoes of the Yankee GM, I think this is one of the easier decisions I’d have to make this off season. There should be numerous high end starters available this winter, and Jesus Montero should, and I think will, be on the table.
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Of the list of pitchers you posted, the only ones I think would be worth Montero + more are Haren, Hamels, and maybe Shields. We’ve seen that Cashman would be reluctant to pull the trigger on a Greinke trade, so I don’t think that’s even worth considering.
Is this a response to the RAB post about how the Yankees should keep him?
No, the Mike I was responding to was our own MJR from yesterday. But I’m sure if RAB did a post on the same topic its worth reading, so thanks for the heads up and I will check it out when I get home tonight.
Honestly, most of those SP can be crossed right off.
We need a #2 starter, one who can succeed in YS, and the other team must have a hole at C or 1B.
Cole Hamels – You have to think that the Phillies will go all-in for one last try at a WS, even if it means letting Hamels walk.
Dan Haren – The Angels have Trumbo/Morales for 1B/DH, and Montero is another Napoli-type who Mike S. would hate at C.
James Shields – Intriguing choice, but unlikely that TBR will trade with a team above them.
Shaun Marcum, Jonathan Sanchez – Not #2 material.
That leaves:
Matt Cain – There’s an opening for Montero at 1B (move Belt to LF), but there’s some worry about Cain’s high FlyB%.
John Danks: Could be a fit; averaged 3.4 WAR the last 3 seasons.
Zach Grienke – Montero could replace Fielder @ 1B, but the potential for Ed Whitson 2.0 has to be worrying.
Don’t discount the possibility of a three-team trade. Even if a team with a top pitcher doesn’t need Montero, he has enough value to fetch them some players that would fit.
Right, which is why I part ways with Joe P on his RAB piece that I just read. It’s not so cut and dried, if you have a player you really like you find a way to make it work.
This is kinda where I was coming out on it. I’d be willing in theory to trade Montero for a number 2 but unless you can arrange a three way trade, there’s not an obvious match.
I also agree with Jake S. that Cashman rejected the notion of Greinke last year and probably isn’t likely to revisit acquiring him this year.
That leaves Cain and Danks unless there’s someone not on any of our radars. If you trade a cost-controlled Montero for one of them, you’d presumably require a negotiating period on a contract extension because one year of these guys is not worth the cost controlled years of Montero. That then eliminates Danks for me. As much as I might like him as a trade deadline pickup for lesser prospects, I don’t really like him enough to want to sign him to an expensive long term deal.
I would trade Montero for Cain contingent on reaching agreement with Cain for a long term deal. That said, I think SF likely either keeps Cain or finds a trading partner that is a better match. They could move Belt to LF but that’s probably not ideal.
I wouldn’t dismiss Haren until we at least know who the GM is.
Why would you trade the Yankees best prospect when you can wait and sign him for only money? I realize the Yankees tried that with Lee but a) Cashman has admitted that’s a special case and b) Montero’s value has increased since then.
Also I don’t get what bringing up Heyward or Smoak have to do with Montero. Heyward is an elite talent regardless of what happened this year and when Smoak was Montero’s age he was still in A ball. I’m not saying Montero is guaranteed to be anything but it’s hard to find a person other than yourself who feels he may not turn out to be a good MLB hitter.
I don’t think it’s clear if the Yankees should or shouldn’t trade him, but as Joe wrote in his RAB post, there just doesn’t seem to be a team out there that has a need and a willingness to give up a frontline pitcher. Your reasons are stretches at best, when you have a prospect of his caliber you shouldn’t trade him just for the hell of it.
When someone argues to “trade him for the hell of it” please let me know. If you read the piece, my stàrting point was 5 win pitchers.
Further, the 2012 FA list is a starting point. Billy Beane has been known to trade pitchers far sooner, and Gio Gonzalez is a super 2 this year who should make 3-4 mil. The new Cub GM could decide to rebuild and make his most tradeable asset Garza available. I’m simply saying Montero should be on the table in the right deal.
Steve, your last sentence says it all. Montero should be on the table if the right deal comes along. For any Yankee GM to out of hand refuse to consider his options does a disservice to the Yankees and their fans.
I have had this discussion on this and other boards but when and if an “elite” pitcher #1 or solid #2 were to become available they are by their very nature more valuable to a team then a DH even a very good DH. Sure his time in the minors indicates he has the “potential”. But potential is defined as nothing more then “existing in possibility : capable of development into actuality”. There are simply no guarantees. Which at this point at least to my way of thinking no one is absolutely sure how well Montero will perform at the big league level. Besides as was already mentioned DH’s are a lot easier to find then elite starting pitchers.
The reality is Montero alone won’t be enough to land a #1, so straight up for a #2 could work.
If you are really just saying “Montero should be on the table in the right deal,” then I don’t think you would get much argument from anyone. In fact, you could just say “Any Yankee should be on the table in the right deal,” and probably not get much argument.
That’s not what you chose for the title of your post though. There you were much stronger in saying that the best use for Montero is to trade him which at a minimum implies not only that he should be on the table in the “right deal” but that the “right deal” is realistically out there. That’s where you’re finding more skepticism.
Post titles and nuance often don’t go hand in hand. Titles tend to be declarative, and you leave the more wordy nuance for the body of the piece. That’s just the nature of writing, at least for my style of it.
As to your 2nd point, I see a fertile trade market this year, and won’t be surprised if players no one is currently considering become available as they so often do. I have heard rumblings that the Yanks plan to be more aggressive this year and I think they will find what they seek. They have the trade chips, they just need to find a partner.
what about a prospect for prospect type trade? Matt Moore actually makes sense there, (I know, I know, The rays will never trade him…) as both players are top 5 prospects that got called up late in the year and experienced big league success in a short sample size. I’m not saying weither team pulls the trigger there, but it does make sense and is a fair trade
Tough to do trades like that in division.
But why not just sign those pitchers when they become free agents?
If the Yankees can flip Montero for an established top of the rotation starter who will be locked in with the Yanks, sign me up. Trading him for a rental, especially for a rental of a number 2 type starter? Not so interested.
“But why not just sign those pitchers when they become free agents?” Because few of them actually reach free agency. They are dealt to teams that sign them to long-term deals or sign again with their own teams.
This is not to advocate trading Montero, but certainly soem deals would be worth considering.
But why not just sign those pitchers when they become free agents?
Like Cliff Lee? Or Johan? Or Halladay?
Unfortunately, top pitchers often never get to market. They get traded for and locked up by their teams.
Well at least with Lee, he hit free agency and just took a different offer. If the Yanks had landed him in a trade, would he have signed with us? Who knows. Roy Halladay took way less money than he could’ve had on the FA market to sign with Philly, implying that even if he had become a FA, he might not have gone for a Yankee mega-offer. So sure, sometimes even the Yankees might get outbid, and sometimes guys just would prefer to play for other teams.
Maybe acquiring a pitcher in a trade before he hits the market substantially increases the odds the Yankees can sign him, since you can set up an extension.
Generally though, my sense is that if a pitcher is out to get top dollar, he knows the Yankees can pay. If that’s what he wants, he’ll hit the FA market and take the best offer. If the guy doesn’t want top dollar/wants to play elsewhere, why would the Yankees acquiring him in a trade change his mind all that much?
When we say that we’re giving up 3 WAR of Montero for 5 WAR of SP, that’s sort of a false dichotomy.
Chances are good that the NYY could cobble together a 5th starter (Garcia + Noesi) capable of giving them 2-3 WAR over the course of the season. Therefore, the benefit from signing a Wilson or Darvish, or trading for a Cain or Haren might only be 2-3 WAR above what the team can already reasonably acquire through FA or internal promotion.
On the other hand, if we really believe Montero is a 3 WAR DH by himself (a reasonable assumption), how would the team make up that production from its roster or other additions? Probably by resigning Jones & Posada or another LHB to platoon DH.
In other words, what you could be describing is robbing Peter to pay Paul. The NYY’s best bet is to concentrate as many wins in as few players as possible, which in this case would mean keeping Montero (the best DH) & buying pitching wins (Darvish or Jackson) on the open market.
Most trades can be described as robbing Peter to pay Paul on some level, unless it’s a pure salary dump and you give up little.
Your suggestion of keeping Montero and signing Darvish or Jackson looks like an offense heavy/light pitching team, and those teams rarely win come October.
Though I am not an E-Jax fan, he has averaged 3.76 fWAR the past 3 years. His 11.2 since 2009 is 19th in MLB, tied with Josh Beckett and slightly ahead of James Shields, John Danks, or Ricky Nolasco. So I think you’re underselling Jackson.
As for Darvish, well that’s a pretty big lottery ticket. But he could easily end up a mid-3 ERA pitcher in MLB, which would put him firmly in #2 territory.
We really have no idea what Darvish will be here, even after he pitches here for a year or two. To me, Darvish is nothing more than another top flight prospect, and I wouldn’t pay 75-100 mil for a top 10 BA prospect unless his name was Strasburg. I’m all for bringing in Japanese pitchers, just not at these prices. Too speculative.
Well, if Darvish is any good, that rotation is no worse than a number of the ones currently still playing. Nova as a #3 compares nicely to what these teams are tossing out there.
A top flight DH is worth 3-4 WAR annually. A top flight 1B is worth 5-7 WAR…By contrast, he would be wasting away at DH, losing anywhere from 2-4 WAR per year in value even if he was among the best in the game, which frankly is a big assumption.
The best 1B have a higher WAR than the best DHs because they’re better players, not because DHs are that much less valuable. There were 4 1B who were better hitters than the best DH this year. If you put a Pujols or Cabrera at DH, you wouldn’t lose that much value. I’m not saying that Montero will be that good, or that there aren’t reasons to trade him, just that him being stuck at DH isn’t one of them.
You’re really splitting hairs on the first point, but the fact that he doesn’t have a long term position on the team is an excellent reason to trade him for an area of need. Given the age on the team and the manager’s preference to keep the DH slot open, even more so.
We have Montero under control for 6 years. Most of the pitchers are under control for 1 or 2 years. I think this offseason Cole Hamels will sign an extension with the Phillies making that point moot anyway. Why would the Phillies want him? Play him where? None that work out in a trade that makes sense for the other team anyway. Can we stop with the Matt Cain stuff guys? He constantly pitches above his peripherals in the NL West. He wouldn’t be nearly as good in the AL East. The A’s ask for an arm and a leg when they make deals, and none of their pitchers away splits really make me think they are aces. And the away splits are even more skewed bc they play Seattle, and the Angels two offensively weak teams.
I understand the logic behind wanted to trade for an good pitcher with this kid. But whenever anyone says it they never seem to come up with a realistic trade partner. I really hope the Yankees dont trade this kid. It would be a very short sighted move that I am sick of seeing them make.
yeah lets trade jay buhner again..only this kid is better
Heresy, Steve; utter heresy.
That’s my specialty. :wink:
In all seriousness, I came to the conclusion a long time ago that Jesus was going to have a tough time breaking into a starting gig with the Yanks. With that being the case, I think its pretty obvious what’s going to happen sooner or later.
As usual on this topic, I couldnt disagree more. I certainly don’t think it is obvious. In fact, they have had the chance to trade for Greinke and Haren in the past and have passed. Seems pretty obvious, to use your terminology, that Montero is not going anywhere unless a legit top 5-7 MLB pitcher like Lee or Halladay comes along. Which does not happen every day.
Haren wanted to go to the west coast, Grienke’s issues were well known. From what I’ve read the Haren talks never got to a serious stage.
They offered him once for Halladay, then again for 2 months of Cliff Lee. Check that, Jesus plus 2-3 other prospects for 2 months of Cliff Lee. And Jack Z, whose entire resume is in player development, turned them down.
I know Yankee fans haven’t had many prospects at this level, but as I stated in the piece odds are still against him being elite at the MLB level. That’s the assumption that I find to be the most wrong headed here. When one accepts that fact, plus the fact he has no long term position, it’s an easy choice for me. But we’ll continue to agree to disagree on this one.
When it came to Halladay, (Johan)Santana, and Lee everytime the yankees made their offer, the other team asked for another top prospect. With Halladay and Santana it was Phil Hughes if I’m not mistaken. With Lee, Jack Z asked for Eduardo nunez or Ivan Nova on top of the other players(After already agreeing to the deal). Each time Cashman balked at those requests for other top talents.
a long time ago? he was in diapers not to long ago..
I don’t see why everyone is so quick to want to trade this kid. If there is one thing we have learned from the postseason is 9 times out of 10 the big name free agents we bring in don’t perform well in the playoffs and our developed guys do. Montero has an amazing bat and that bat is something we need in our lineup. I’ve been telling people all year that our weakness wasn’t our pitching it was our lineup. Out of every one of the guys on that roster, we had one that was hitting for average and power(Cano). The rest were relying on the long ball, hence why swish and tex were so horrible in the playoffs. They weren’t trying to get a base-hit, they were trying to put the ball in the stands. Most of the times playoffs are won by base-hits and not homeruns. Just look at the Red Sox, when they were winning they were the best team in baseball because they had at least 4 guys in their lineup that were hitting for average and power, and they had one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball(besides Beckett and Lester of course). We don’t need to go after big name free agent pitchers this offseason, we need a buffer to take over the number 2 or 3 spot for at least two years and let Betances take the #5 spot and develop there. Once he’s relatively ready bring up Banuelos to develop at the #5 spot. These two need to come up and have absolutely no pressure on them whatsoever. They need a baptism of fire, not the Joba type baptism though. More like a Madison Bumgarner
I’ll agree that there’s something to be said for bringing up kids through the system, even for a team like the Yanks.
But when you start saying “the lineup was the problem” I part ways. They were #2 in Runs scored, just 6 behind Boston. There was little wrong with their lineup. The were #1 in run differential, so this team did a good job of both suppressing and scoring runs. They just lost 3 games out of 5 at the wrong time of the year. That shouldn’t change your assessment of the team as a whole, that’s just silly. As we see over and over again in the playoffs, the best teams generally don’t win in October.
The yankees power hitting was incredible this year to say the least, but put runners on and ask them to get a base-hit and they couldn’t do it to save their life. Which is exactly what we saw in the series this year. One hit, a single base-hit, a fucking sac-fly and we would be playing Texas right now. Texas and Detroit were in the top 3 in batting average, whereas New York was 7th. Both scored less runs than the yankees overall this year and look where they are now.
P.S. They had around fifteen games where they scored 10 runs or more. Mostly by the longball
hit them in the stands…?? nah swisher wanted to hit it to canada..swisher must go..pena goes, cervelli goes, jones goes, posada goes.trade arod to the cubs eat half his salary..let CC go if he opts..regroup 2012..hey we lost with this bunch ,i bet you we can lose again without them..hey maybe we get lucky win 93 games make it in , win it all.thats 50mil next year saved..make a few trades at the dead line ..sign a few FAs..bring up some kids to pitch..it will be alot more fun rooting for them ,then putting up with afraud//
On Jesus Montero: “It’s something that we will look at in Spring Training, heavily. I can’t tell you exactly what the makeup of our team will be behind the plate. Montero’s a guy that can probably do a lot of different things, DH some, catch some, gotta see the makeup of our team. I was very pleased with his at-bats in the month of September. Lot of upside there.”
I found that particular sentence interesting.
Especially in the context of this:
“I can’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen with [Jorge Posada]
We all know Jorge’s gone, and he used the exact same terminology when addressing Montero.
SPOOKY!
Clayton Kershaw for Montero, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos and Nova. Would the Dodgers do it? Maybe they need pieces but with mlb controlling the team, hard to see them pulling the trade. I think should sell high on nova. Kershaw is legit talent (WHIP of 0.98).
I don’t think Bud Selig would allow McCourt to trade Kershaw or Kemp. He’s trying to push McCourt out, and doesn’t want a new buyer to be looking at a devalued asset with no stars.
i would never make that trade..
You say Heyward. I say Mike Stanton. You say Smoak. I say Freddie Freeman. I think Montero’s hit tool is at least as good as Freeman, and if Montero finished next season with a .800 OPS, you know what … that’s not bad for a 22 year old rookie in the AL East. Montero showed some real good in game power, so call me a “homer” but i’ll peg Montero for 25 hrs if he gets 600 At-bats. Montero doesn’t have Stanton-esque power, but all-in-all, the bat that Montero can bring to a lineup will more than make up for the loss of Posada and a power regression from Russell Martin.
I dont trade Montero for anything less than a can’t-miss #1 starter. Honestly, aside from Greinke, Hamels, Haren, and Shields (a pipedream), Cashman cant bother with anyone else on your list.
What if Beane makes Gio Gonzalez available? He’s a super 2 and due for a big raise.
That’s a good one. Gio’s walks are a tad high but all the other numbers look great, and right now, Gio’s upside represents that we all hope Manny Banuelos can reach.
Would I trade an immediate (imo) .800 OPS rookie DH for a lefty starter who could end up rivaling CC in Ks and IP. Yeah…I would. Yet, whatever raise Gio is in line to get i’m sure Beane can afford it for the next couple years.
Figure 3-4 mil for this year, double it next year. He locked up Cahill, but Gio is going year to year. I would guess Gio becomes available either this year or next, but I stopped trying to figure out Beane a long time ago.
Because of the Yankees ridiculous business model of not negotiating with players until they are free agents, no one you could obtain for Montero would equal out in value. To get a Hamels, or Grienke you would pay in prospects, and then pay in cash when they hit free agency. Not smart. Philly is pretty certain to sign Hamels to an extension. Shields has very team friendly team options until after 2013 and most likely wont trade with NY. Why would the Angels trade for Montero? They have Trumbo and Kendry Moralas at first, and one of their top prospects is Hank Conger. They have a logjam at DH also with Abreu, Wells, and Hunter. Not a fit. There is no fit between Montero and any team with a true ace pitcher on any team in baseball really. Hopefully.
That business model worked out pretty well with Chien Ming Wang . . .
I’m not saying its perfect, just that there is no one perfect answer. There’s is as good as any other.
That’s the only one example I can think of it working out. Think about it, say a player gets called up at 23. 6 years of team control later they are 29. Now the Yankees sign the player for a big long term high dollar contract. There’s no way it can work unless your signing a truly great player. Its almost an assurance that your going to hand out a band contract.
The fit doesnt really matter so long as the Angels have holes at 3B and LF. Why not then trade Conger or Montero in order to alleviate the logjam and upgrade a key spot? Heck, at the end of the day, the Angels cut ties with Abreu and simply put Montero in the DH role.
But as I laid out in the piece, he has far less value if the team is acquiring a DH. Best fit for Jesus is finding a team with a pitcher that needs a 1B. From what I’ve seen I don’t think he’s an adequate Catcher now, and his problems are largely physical in nature.
Trade for a pitcher who by the nature of his trade is only a pitch away from retirement for a young power hitter? Don’t be silly, and don’t fall too deeply in love w/ WAR, it’s only useful in hindsight (think “INJURY”). Montero may yet turn into a position player, and it’s damn early in the game to say with any degree of certainty that he’ll be a career DH for the Yanks….
We know the bust rate on prospects is roughly 1 in 3. I haven’t seen this studied, but do 1 in 3 proven, elite MLB starters have career ending injuries in their prime (27-31) years? Sounds high to me.
Steve, I don’t know the rate either. But, I’ve been a Yankee fan for 40 years and anecdotely I wouldn’t be surprised that a pitchers’ risk of sustaining either and career ending injury or one leading to becoming a “junk-baller” isn’t higher. I seem to remember a study that Bill James did back in the ’80′s that a team should never trade a position star for a star pitcher for this reason. OK, Montero isn’t a star yet, but until he is, no team will give up star pitcher anyway….and then we’re back to the injury argument…..
Mike Piazza’s career refutes this post.
I am so sick of the way some Yankee fans overrate Martin in large part because of an out of context April.
The guy has a poor approach at the plate and is injury prone.
Montero’s Yankee career will make Martin’s Yankee career a footnote.
Piazza’s a 1st ballot HOFer, are we seriously assuming a rookie with a handful of PAs will become Piazza? There are 100 Mike Napoli’s (bad defensive Catchers who can hit) who will never become Piazza, especially if they stay behind the plate.
(As an aside, Piazza is widely rumored to have had some ‘help’ cough cough which is kinda sorta banned now.)
You really just give no value to defensive catching at all…
When I decided to wait a day before posting my own comment to Steve’s post, I never in a million years thought I’d be 57th on the comments list. It looks like we’ve hit on a hot button issue here in Yankee land.
Steve, there’s just one thing that you missed (well, two, but one big one). I agree with you, 100%. Perhaps I didn’t emphasize it fully in my post, but one of the reasons I argued that the Yankees should use Montero more next year at all costs was to enhance his trade value. If he can hit to a .365+ wOBA over extended use next season, when he’ll be only 22 years old, his trade value will be huge to a team that needs a young bat. So long as the Yankees get appropriate value for him then I’m fine with seeing him go in a trade. If that trade comes this winter, all the better.
My main point was that Montero should be given a serious look at the DH spot next season because if he succeeds (and I believe he will) that will help the team on multiple dimensions, including trading him. It will not help the team to throw an inferior bat in the DH spot, which is precisely what the Yankees have done for the past two years. The job should be Montero’s until he loses it, or is traded.
Finally, I also disagree with the use of WAR in this way. As one of the comments noted already, there are better hitters at 1B right now than at DH. Miguel Cabrera, for example, rated negatively in the field, according to Fangraphs. Moving him from 1B to DH should therefore increase his value on multiple dimensions, according to WAR, because he no longer harms you with his glove and he would be compared to inferior competition.
In general I’m leery of the use of WAR to evaluate a DH (and almost anything else, but I’ve posted on that topic before). If Montero can give the Yankees a 125 wRC+ or greater next year then his WAR matters less to me, and he’ll help the team whether they keep him at DH or trade him.
Final note: good post. I enjoyed reading it and certainly enjoyed the debate.
I don’t think there are any pitchers out there that would/should warrant a trade of Montero. The only two for me would be Halladay or Lee and we(Yankees) whiffed on both of them. Some people say Clayton Kershaw, others say Felix Hernandez. Kershaw plays in the worst offensive league in baseball not to mention the pitchers parks in that league(except for coors of course). Felix Hernandez with all of his talents also plays in a shallow division with only four teams and with the Rangers being the only team comparable to those in the AL east. Not to mention he pitches in SafeCo and sometimes in the Overstock(Oakland)Coliseum. Unless he can put up numbers like he did in 2010 or ’09 I don’t want to take that risk. CC is the only big time(acquisition) pitcher out of recent memory that I can think of that came into The Bronx and really flourished. If you look the only players that stand out in the playoffs as being good are the ones that we either brought through our system or didn’t have a huge contract/expectations. Posada was never a stud at catcher but look at what all he has done. I think however “bad” montero is at catcher his bat will make people forget. I vote Montero stays
The Red Sox have used Ortiz as a career DH ever since they got him… I’d say that was a pretty good call by them.
Even working under the assumption that he will never play a position in the field your argument is flawed. You can’t place this much stock in WAR as it is essentially a very questionable statistic. Am I honestly to believe that Teixeira’s defense was responsible for losing games? Is there any way Swisher was seriously one of the 5 best defensive outfielders in the AL? The answer to both is no. dWAR in particular is a very questionable stat, and that is what makes up the difference between a position player and a DH.
Don’t be so quick to totally disregard Montero as a defensive player. He’s been compared to Piazza, not a Little Leaguer. He knows how to handle himself back there and has a strong arm. Sure some issues are physical, but he has a great arm and he could improve his footwork to become a good Avila-type catcher (good arm, not great defensive skills otherwise) with a better bat.
Maybe the odds are against him to be a superstar, but there’s every reason in the world to believe that he’s a talented young player with a great bat. Time will tell if he’s the next Miguel Cabrera or Manny Ramirez as some have said, but if not he’ll almost certainly be a great, if not amazing, player.
There are no superstar pitchers on the trading block, only great pitcher. Why would we trade a great 21 year old player with all the potential in the world for a pitcher with 10 fewer years left who has shown that he is a good #2 guy, but nothing more? It’s giving up an at least very solid player with potential to get much better for a player who’s of no more value and unlike the first no longer has room for improvement.
Go after CJ and Darvish, I can pretty much guarantee one of them will work out. If not, sign Edwin Jackson or make a run at Mark Buehrle. Or alternatively just give the kids a chance to shine. No matter what there’s no reason to sacrifice a great young player for one who’s much older, more expensive, under team control for fewer years, and won’t be of much more value. Unless a bona fide ace like Kershaw or Shields becomes available and a package of Montero, Banuelos, and Nova can hook them, Montero should be the DH next year and work his way into the catching job. I don’t see a true ace available, so that’s exactly what should happen.
EDGAR MARTINEZ BEST I.E.
I am on the Montero stays bandwagon, and claim that there is almost no deal that can be made for a pitcher that would mark a fair return. At least not realistically. Bud Selig will most likely not allow a trade of Kershaw while the team has no ownership, and it would certainly cost more than just Montero. Felix is under a team friendly contract and is not available. The only guy I can think of realistically being available and representing an even return is the Rays pitcher. And I am not talking about Shields. David Price is a true ace, and he has just hit arbitration. The Rays ownership keep losing money every year, Price is going to be expensive, and they have Matt Moore lined up to replace him. Thats what I would want, but they will never trade him within the division. Gallardo and Latos are still too cheap and important to their respective franchizes to be traded, and I don’t know if I would even want Latos.
Edgar Martinez became full-time DH in 1995. From 1995 ’till 2001 he had between 4.6 and 7.7 WAR a season, averaging 5.8 per season. So, great DH can be 6 WAR player.
Theoretically, yes. I was trying to be realistic. In the past few years, top DHs have been 3-4 WAR guys. Don’t forget the run environment if different now than when the great Edgar played.
Not to mention Steve, that you didn’t want to compare a rookie to probably the best DH of all time.