That's baseball, Suzyn
It’s a refrain we’ve heard over and over again since we saw Alex Rodriguez flail away and make the final out of the 2011 season. It certainly felt that way, other than Robbie Cano’s big 6 RBI showing in game 1 and some late, garbage time tack-on runs in game 4 the Yankee offense just seemed to sputter this year. But is that perception or reality? Let’s take a look:
2011 ALDS
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS Totals 5 173 28 45 8 2 4 26 21 50 .260 .350 .399 .749 2 0
2011 season
Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ Team Totals 30.6 162 6306 5518 867 1452 267 33 222 836 147 46 627 1138 .263 .343 .444 .788 106
As you see BA and OBP are virtually the same as they were over the full 162 game season. SLG was down some, but that didn’t hinder their ability to score runs in this particular small sample of games. The Yanks scored 28 Runs in the 5 game ALDS, averaging 5.6 runs per game. Over the full season, they averaged 5.35 Runs per game. If anything, the Yankee offense was a bit more efficient at scoring runs than they were in the regular season. Some have argued that the Yanks have a feast or famine offense, and the 9 and 10 run efforts in games 1 and 4 would seem to feed that perception on the surface. These folks argue the Yanks need guys who strike out less and do better with situational hitting. Yet Nick Swisher is viewed as one of the best situational hitters on the team, and he’s had one poor October after another. I think the Yankee offense is just fine, we’re just drawing overly broad conclusions from tiny samples of games.
Take Alex Rodriguez as an example. Mr Unclutch, favorite whipping boy and poster child for every Yankee failure since his arrival in 2004. The way some fans talk about him, you would think he chokes on a regular basis with men on base. His career triple slash line over the course of his HOF 18 year career is .302/.386/.567 (.953 OPS). His career numbers with RISP is……drum roll please…. .300/.401/.542 (.943 OPS). Despite what you’ve heard, despite what your eyes have been telling you, Alex is EXACTLY the same player in clutch situations that he is day in and day out. In the post season his numbers are down some .277/.386/.498 (.884 OPS) but that’s to be expected facing better pitchers more often, as well as likely being due to the small (299 PAs) sample.
There’s a few lessons here. First, how our eyes can deceive us when watching baseball. That’s why we lean on statistical analysis to double check what we think we know. Most of the time it matches up, but sometimes it doesn’t. Next, we focus so intently on every AB in the post season that we often forget some basic facts. That baseball is a game of failure, where even the best hitters make out in 2 out of every 3 ABs. We conveniently forget these things in big situations during (seemingly) important playoff games, but that rule of failure still applies. Experience teaches us patience in watching this game, but in a 5 game series time runs out very quickly. You can’t change the nature of the game just because the calendar turns to the month of October, we can only resolve to put things in perspective.
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Steve, I appreciate your attempts at putting things in perspective. However, by ‘lean[ing] on statistical analysis’ to form that perspective, you ignore the Achilles Heel of statistical analysis. Engineers, geologists and, in this instance, baseball fans have to factor in the element of pressure. Pressure will never register in an algorithm. I’ve long felt Sabermetrics were useful and interesting, but not the be-all-and-end-all of baseball analysis. In fact, at times, it seems those algorithms are about to swallow the game whole. And, while you brought them up, looking at how well Rodriguez has hit with the bases juiced in his career, and how good a situational hitter Swisher has been, ignores what everyone of us saw Thursday night. They (along with Teixeira) simply collapsed under pressure. Alex Rodriguez, he of the 600-plus homeruns and eventually 2,000 RBI’s, buckled. They needed contact in the 7th inning, just contact. They got a few ferociously awkward swings. In the ninth, this likely first ballot Hall of Famer stood terrified at the plate; terrified of a pot-bellied hoople wearing swim goggles. Swisher, as is his wont in the post season, came to the plate with his own special plan – he was going to hit the Grand Concourse – with every swing, in every at-bat. Pressure. You can gaze in awe at the beauty of the Mona Lisa, but you could also very easily poke your finger right through her eye with the slightest bit of pressure.
We’re stuck with Rodriguez and Teixeira for the foreseeable future, like it or not. Swisher, on the other hand, has trade value. After seeing – not calculating – his performance in now six series with the Yankees, I hope they consider going in another direction in right.
My screed notwithstanding, I really enjoy and look forward to your columns. Keep it up.
See I just don’t understand this perspective at all. Why is it that Swisher and A-Rod “buckled under the pressure,” and not Benoit did his job? As a baseball fan you obviously know hitters are going to fail more often than they succeed. Sure, it would’ve been great (and likely won the series) had either of them put the ball in play in the 7th, but they didn’t, and to me, that’s Benoit — one of the better relievers in the game, regardless of how you feel about his contract — simply getting the job done.
Think about it this way — if the Tigers came up with the bases loaded and one out against Mo in the bottom of the ninth, and got a hit to tie the game, chances are we’d be calling them lucky, because we all feel that Mo is invincible. But if Mo takes care of business, no one’s talking about how the Tiger hitters “failed” or “buckled under pressure,” just that Mo is amazing and unsurprisingly took care of business. Baseball is a two-way street; it’s incredible to me how many have forgotten that in the aftermath of this series.
Great point Larry.
benoit was awful..those hitters mentioned by 161 were worse
larry it was very predictable that swisher was going to melt again..arod set the table just before the playoffs ,i don’t feel good.tex missed pitch after pitch down the middle /even darling said it..these three choked and it is the “norm” for them in the playoffs.. i said all this before ..not after..swisher needs to go.. MO ..has been proven under pressure ..you can not link his name with these guys. we needed one if not two productive outs..fly balls..and we be playing now..girardi never pinch hit , made moves..kick gardner in his ass. then .he steals on the first picth and jeter is swinging..where was joe? he went back to the panic guy..
Thanks for the kind words and as always thanks for reading.
boy / do i agree
Please tell me what that direction for RF should be.
Right fielders
Willie Bloomquist (34) – $1.1MM mutual option with a $150K buyout
Milton Bradley (34)
Michael Cuddyer (33)
David DeJesus (32)
J.D. Drew (36)
Kosuke Fukudome (35)
Willie Harris (34)
Brad Hawpe (33)
Jason Kubel (29)
Ryan Ludwick (33)
Xavier Nady (33)
Magglio Ordonez (38)
Cody Ross (31)
Nick Swisher (31) – $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Josh Willingham (33)
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/03/2012-mlb-free-agents.html
The best guy on that list is already on the team.
what about via trade..brendon b. from tigers.. if it came to dickerson or swisher..the kid gets it to lose..save 10mil..
I really don’t want to point this out in case Cashman reads this or one of you fellas tells him.
But Josh Willingham would be a great fit. I just checked his stats at Baseball Reference. They don’t look sexy at all.
Consider though that up until this year his OBP had been a little above .360. I know it came down to .332 this year, but consider how seldom he got good pitches to hit in that Oakland lineup. Nobody to protect him at all!
And when he did swing he mashed 29 HRs. Adjusting for Oakland’s park playing like the Grand Canyon and New Yankee Stadium playing like a launching pad, I would expect him to have hit at least 35 in your lineup.
Now I know he is going to be 33 next year (though I didn’t realize he was OLDER than Swisher…man Swisher must have some hard miles on his odometer to look that tired) but I think he will be a much better player than Swisher.
I can’t answer, though, whether Willingham can do it in the clutch. Until he plays on a playoff team we won’t know. The obvious answer is that he can’t because he hasn’t. But until last year none of the Rangers had played in the playoffs. And that worked out pretty well (until SF cooled them).
If I was Cashman, I would look long and hard at Willingham. If you guys don’t sign him, some opponent will be happy. I would love to see him in a Rangers uni, but I am not sure we have a spot for him to play every day unless Cruz goes down.
Personally I would much rather have 1 year of Swisher than have to sign Willingham to a 2-4 year contract. Swisher has been better in the outfield than Josh anyway, and Swisher has a better eye for my money.
Steve, you need to note that 19 of those 28 runs scored came in just two games. Outside of those games the offense really didn’t show up.
I did address that in the piece. The “feast or famine” stuff.
A-rod played fantastic defense this season, especially in the post-season. Yeah, his mechanics/timing looked way off, but for all I know that could be from barely playing in the second half. His defense probably did save us a couple runs though and that shouldn’t be forgotten.
Alex will always be a lightning rod, mostly due to his contract. If he was paid a middling salary, people would marvel at how good he is. But since he’s the highest paid player in the game, he’s not allowed to make out with men on base. Alex demanded that contract, so he has to live with some of the unfortunate baggage that comes with it.
baggage ?? he is a four hitter…then say the dollars.. he is there to hit..lets not forget alex has a history of failure in big games..
@Disco — Thank you; more people need to recognize this.
It was also unfair for anyone to expect Alex to be his normal self after the injuries he suffered. I mean he comes back from knee surgery, and never even has a chance to try and get his legs under him and he breaks his thumb. The most important part of your body in hitting is having a strong base, and not only was that compromised but the ability to grip his bat was hampered as well. He’s an easy scapegoat, but anyone blaming him for this exit shows their own character really.
Excellent post, gives much needed perspective.
i was hoping arod would say ..my thumb hurts..i wanted chavez playing third ..facing all those RH pitchers..we would have played sat. no doubt.
You point out that the offense did about as well in the playoffs as they did in the regular season. That’s true, and as far as I can see they got the same results as in the regular season: they were 21-24 in one-run games and 4-12 in extra inning games. They underplayed their pythagorean by 5.9 games.
For me, the questions are
Is runs scored (or the components of runs scored) enough to evaluate an offense or does run distribution need to be taken into account?
Is the Yankees’ run distribution an inherent byproduct of the way their offense is built?
And if so, are there better ways to build offenses, or ways to get better results in one-run games with this kind of offense?
(And by the way, my personal opinion is that it’s way too early for this cheer up stuff. I feel lousy about the Yankees losing, and I want to enjoy feeling lousy about the Yankees losing. I’ll worry about feeling better later–certainly not before the end of the World Series. So if this comment seems grumpy, too bad.)
Hey professor,
I think you raise an interesting point, and I’d be curious to see what a “run distribution/sequencing” metric might look like, although I’d bet the Yanks would be pretty close to the top of that as well. You can’t finish second in the league in runs scored by accident, I’m sure their sequencing was fine throughout the year. The record in one-run and extra-inning games sucks, but it’s inherently fluky — there’s nothing you can do to get “better” at winning a close game. Sometimes you get the bounces, sometimes you don’t.
You could probably make the case that maybe Swish shouldn’t have been batting 6th given his struggles, but at the end of the day who’s to say Posada doesn’t also strike out? We’ll never know. I do applaud Joe for not panicking and sticking with what he felt was his best offensive attack, although in hindsight Alex probably should’ve been swapped with Tex, but these minor lineup shuffles will have almost zero effect over the course of a five-game series.
Here’s another way of looking at it — the Yankees had 178 grand slam opportunities in 2011, second only to Boston’s 188, which means the Yankees averaged roughly 1.12 grand slam opportunities per game. The league average GSO was 142, or under one per game. The Yankees loaded the bases twice in Game 5 and had FOUR grand slam opportunities. They also hit .337/.354/.601 with the bases juiced in 2011 — 39% higher than they did in all situations. They also hit 11% better than normal with one out, for whatever reason. That they went 0-4 in their four bases loaded opportunities — including 0-2 with one out — is about as fluky as it gets, at least for me.
We can talk about sequencing, but after all was said and done the Yankees had a 100 wRC+, 103 wRC+, 122 wRC+ and 125 wRC+ — all above-average hitters — take a crack at the bases loaded, including one player who is one HR shy of tying the all-time grand slam record, and it just didn’t happen. I’m just not sure the Yankees could’ve asked for two better run-scoring situations.
we didn’t even need a hit..a fly ball has us tied ,two wins it..with outs.swisher swinging wildly as he does every post season..he needs to go..
You could probably make the case that maybe Swish shouldn’t have been batting 6th given his struggles, but at the end of the day who’s to say Posada doesn’t also strike out? We’ll never know. I do applaud Joe for not panicking and sticking with what he felt was his best offensive attack
On a similar note, Adrian Beltre was 0-for the ALDS before his big 3 HR game 4. If you bail out on a player who’s struggling, you’ll miss out on the correction, which in Swisher’s case could be huge.
Yeah, I’ve absorbed a lot about luck from the sabermetric revolution, and I buy it. It makes sense. But there are other things that I’m not sure have been explored. (I haven’t had enough to have a handle on what’s been explored or not.)
In Bill James’ book on managers. he does a brief calculation about how much single runs are worth compared to bunches of runs. That is, if two teams play each other, and one scores no more than 1 run an inning, and the other team scores runs in three-run bunches only, and both teams score the same amount of runs, then the team that scores only single runs will win more games. That’s just the nature of the run distribution–the team that scores in bunches will have more blowouts, but will pay for it will more one-run losses.
Also, you say, “but these minor lineup shuffles will have almost zero effect over the course of a five-game series.” I don’t think that’s right. Over the course of a 5-game series, a very smalls ample, the effect of changing the batting order can be huge. If you happen, by luck, to get the guy who goes 2 for 4 into a situation with the bases loaded and two out instead of the guy who goes 0 for 4, you could score a bunch more runs. Over a long sample, a season, that will even out, but in a short series it could be huge. Of course, there is no way of knowing which combination will happen to come up big. Yes, it’s luck. But the effect can be huge over a short series.
I don’t think there’s any question that luck played a big part in the loss. But it was so close–so little had to change, even one at bat for the outcome to change–that I wonder if there are strategies, at any level, that might have moved the percentages just a tiny bit.
The problem, of course, is that teams that score one run at a time are very unlikely to score as many runs as teams that score in bunches.
You state flat out that there is no way to increase your chances of winning one-run games. I’m not sure that’s true. Not sure it isn’t, either.
B Ut given that there are strategies that will increase the chances of scoring one run at certain times at the cost of reducing the odds of scoring more than one run, maybe there are ways to improve your run distribution.
your right prof. nothing to be happy about..still can not get over losing at home..no way that should have happened..never supposed to lose that game.not happy.
Yeah, it stung. Son of a bitch.
I mean, I certainly don’t claim to have all the answers, and I’m sure it’s possible to orchestrate a lineup that enhances one’s chances of scoring one run — shoot, we saw Joe try to play for one run all year and 99% of the time people went apoplectic at the mere site of someone squaring for a bunt — I was just trying to illustrate that the Yankees not only had their chances, but had more than the average team would have. It didn’t work out, and as I stated earlier you have to give Tiger pitching a lot of credit there.
Everyone’s different, but for me the offense drives me up a wall when things like Max Scherzer no-hitting them for 5 1/3 happens. They out-hit, out-OBPed and out-scored the Tigers in the DS; this was far from a no-show job by the offense. Though of course that only adds to the frustration. Sure you would’ve liked to have saved some runs from G4 for G5, but what can you do?
And hey, the top offense in the entire league didn’t even make the playoffs; I’d have been pretty frustrated had the Yanks led MLB in wOBA again and missed the postseason. I just don’t think there are wholesale changes required to the offensive attack, just adjustments that need to be made to the players the team already has. Tex in particular needs to enroll in Kevin Long boot camp this winter.
Oh, I’m not criticizing what you wrote, which seems accurate. I’m just wondering what can be done.
Wholesale changes that just bring in other guys who do the same things (or the same things but not as well) are not going to help. I’m just wondering how you can look at this without just shrugging it off, which is not my natural bent. As for what can be done, well, we’ve got the whole winter and this site to hack it out.
Of course, the pitching is probably more important right now.
I have always thought that Arod wasn’t unclutch but it has been brought to my attention that on Fangraphs Clutch rating, Alex is 8th worst in the past 10 years. What do we make of that?