The relief leverage fallacy

By On October 4, 2011 · 4 Comments · In General Musings

Last night’s loss was certainly a frustrating one, but since the game has been explored quite thoroughly by my co-writers here, I thought I would explore another topic.  In particular, I wanted to focus on the common critique of how managers tend to pigeonhole relievers to a specific inning.  This strategy is not unique to Joe Girardi by any stretch of the imagination, but he does seem to be the recipient of significant snark for occasional decisions he makes regarding the bullpen.

Regarding bullpen use, the conventional wisdom is that you want to have your most effective relievers pitching in the highest leverage situation, with leverage being determined by the score of the game, number of runners on base, and the inning.  It makes intuitive sense to have your best pitchers pitching when the stakes are the highest, and as a fan, it can be infuriating to watch a lesser pitcher give up a lead in the 6th or 7th inning while David Robertson is sitting on his ass in the bullpen.

I agree with this idea in principle, but in practice it is a little more difficult to implement.  Aside from the inning and the batters coming up, it can be difficult to predict that a high-leverage situation will occur in a particular inning.  Stringing a few hits together can happen relatively quickly, and in the blink of an eye a lead can be placed into jeopardy.  Freddy Garcia’s meltdown in Game 2 of the Division Series was a prime example of this phenomenon, since he was cruising for the majority of the game, and nobody was warming up to replace him.

While it would’ve been great to have David Robertson come in to the jam to bail the Yankees out and keep the situation from getting out of hand, the reality is that pitchers need to warm up, and the decision to warm up the pitcher usually has to occur before the high-leverage situation materializes. To avoid injury to the pitcher by repeated “dry humping” (when the pitcher warms up but doesn’t go in the game), it is simply not practical to have your relief ace warming up in the 6th inning on a regular basis.  As a result, sometimes you have to make do with an inferior pitcher in a tough situation simply because he is the only guy who is ready to go.  Giving relievers established innings makes it easier for the manager to ensure that they are fully warmed up, to maximize effectiveness and reduce injury risk.

It’s frustrating to watch and certainly a tempting target of criticism for Monday morning quarterbacks.  However, If you get think about the decision-making process for a manager in terms of risk assessment, it makes a little more sense that managers rarely bring in their best relievers into early jams.  As a fan, it’s easy to criticize, but sometimes these externalities make these decisions far more complex than simply plugging in the reliever with the best xFIP in the situation with the highest leverage index.

 
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4 Responses to The relief leverage fallacy

  1. roadrider says:
    October 4, 2011 at 3:25 pm

    Oh come on. Sparky Lyle and Goose Gossage and many other relievers of past eras used to do the fireman thing all the time. This “established innings” crap is a joke. All it does is create a crutch for guys to complain that they can’t pitch (or pitch well) unless it’s “their inning” or they had to come in with guys on base or it wasn’t a “save situation”. What nonsense. This entire bullpen fetishism thing has gotten so out of hand that it really detracts from my ability to enjoy a game.

    All you need to do to give a guy enough time to warm up is throw over to first a few times and have a couple of mound conferences (not that I love those either but they can serve a purpose).

    Reply
  2. Adam B says:
    October 4, 2011 at 3:40 pm

    I understand what you are saying and I agree with it most of the time. But Robertson is the best in the league this year at getting out a jam and if I were calling the shots then I have Robertson on the mound with 1st and 3rd and no one out in the 6th in game 2. Robertson pitches 2 innings there (assuming he does what he ALWAYS does) then turn to Soriano in the 8th. I would leave CC in but not freddy. It’s what I would have done, but hey maybe that’s why I’m no manager.

    Either way the labels definitely handcuff a manager, there is no doubt about that. In the end it makes very little difference… If the lineup can get there **** together we wouldn’t even be talking about this.

    Reply
  3. bg90027 says:
    October 4, 2011 at 3:46 pm

    I don’t disagree with the point in general but it’s different in the playoffs. They’d gotten 5 good innings from Freddy Garcia but the top of the order was up and the game was still in reach. There wasn’t likely to be a more high leverage situation than if someone got on base. It might be the last inning that Miguel Cabrera would be due up before Mo time. I’d absolutely have been warming up Robertson or Soriano to start that inning and brought one of them in at the first sign of trouble. The Tigers have an elite bullpen and they were scheduled to face Verlander the next day. I think it was important not to let that game slip away and even if he was pitching well, I just don’t trust him that much to think he shouldn’t have a short leash at that point.

    Reply
    • Eric Schultz says:
      October 4, 2011 at 5:30 pm

      A good point, I definitely agree that the playoffs are different. You definitely should ride your best guys in the playoffs a little harder than you would during the regular season, so perhaps it was not a great example to point to the Garcia game. It’s really more of a long-term strategy rather than a game-to-game strategy.

      Reply

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