One of my favorite baseball bloggers, Jonah Keri, is in the process of writing (what I assume to be) another fantastic book which is scheduled for release in 2014. He’ll be focusing in on the history of the Montreal Expos — a team I often find myself rather awestruck by, given the plethora of talent they developed and traded away. Via Twitter, Keri released one particularly interesting tidbit discovered in his research for the book.
“How’s this grab you, Yankees fans? Before Expos dealt Pedro to Sox, Yanks made offer: Pedro for…. #ExposBook” (@jonahkeri)
Imagine if Expos GM, Jim Beattie, acquired Mariano instead of the agreed upon Red Sox package consisting of and a player to be named later (). As blasphemous as it is to even contemplate Rivera wearing another uniform, would the move have made sense for the Yankees? Let’s consider.
The first point to remember is that this trade would have happened prior to the 1998 season. Try to keep the context of the times in mind. Pedro had just completed a superb 1997 season in which he posted an 8.8 fWAR for the Expos. During that 1997 campaign, he pitched to a 1.90 ERA (2.39 FIP) over the course of 241.1 (that’s “CC workhorse” territory!) innings. Unsurprisingly, during that 1997 season, Martinez also posted very gaudy K/9 (11.37), HR/9 (0.79), BB/9 (2.50) rates as well. Heading into the 1998 season, Pedro would have been a 26 year old stud pitcher (think of a hot-headed version of ), fresh off of his first CY award, making approximately $3.6M entering the prime of his career.
Meanwhile, in 1997, the Yankees starting rotation was currently comprised of , , David Cone, , and Dwight Gooden. This cast managed to carry the Bombers into the Divisional Series of the playoffs where they ultimately wound up losing to a talented Cleveland ballclub. In other words, this trade would have occured before those monster years of the Yankees dynasty. Though the Yankee rotation at the time was certainly effective, it still left plenty of room for improvement, particularly towards the back end*.
*Thanks to hindsight, we also know that during the 1998-2000 dynasty years, the Yanks obtained pitchers such as , , , and Denny Neagle to further strengthen the rotation. From 2001-2004, New York looked to (who absolutely was a quality acquisition), , , , Kevin Brown, , and Jose Contreras. That’s not to say that Pedro would have prevented some of these names from surfacing in pinstripes, but the Yanks may not have faced the same sense of desperation to find another reliable big name pitcher.
As for Mariano, he was 27 years old at that time and making a very affordable $550K as he entered his third season in the Bigs. After putting up numbers worthy of Cy Young consideration in 1996 (5.4 bWAR), Rivera was looking more and more like one of the key components of the Yankee organization heading forward. During the 1997 campaign, in 71.2 IP, Mo notched a 1.88 ERA (2.96 FIP) and was averaging 8.5 SO/9 (good for a 4.2 bWAR which is really pretty incredibly given the innings). He was also one of the key members of a solidified bullpen comprised of , , Mike Stanton, and Graeme Lloyd.
| Rk | Pos | Age | W | L | IP | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SP | * | 25 | 18 | 7 | 2.88 | 240.1 | 156 | 1.240 | 8.7 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 6.2 | 2.55 |
| 2 | SP | * | 34 | 16 | 10 | 4.21 | 218.0 | 107 | 1.303 | 9.9 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 6.4 | 3.47 |
| 3 | SP | 34 | 12 | 6 | 2.82 | 195.0 | 159 | 1.236 | 7.2 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 10.2 | 2.58 | |
| 4 | SP | * | 32 | 6 | 7 | 5.65 | 145.0 | 80 | 1.538 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 1.26 |
| 5 | SP | 32 | 9 | 5 | 4.91 | 106.1 | 92 | 1.589 | 9.8 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 1.25 | |
| Rk | Pos | Age | W | L | IP | |||||||||
| 6 | CL | 27 | 6 | 4 | 1.88 | 71.2 | 239 | 1.186 | 8.2 | 0.6 | 2.5 | 8.5 | 3.40 | |
| 7 | RP | 25 | 8 | 6 | 4.24 | 133.2 | 106 | 1.384 | 10.6 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 2.93 | |
| 8 | RP | 30 | 3 | 7 | 2.86 | 78.2 | 157 | 1.144 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 9.3 | 2.19 | |
| 9 | RP | * | 30 | 6 | 1 | 2.57 | 66.2 | 176 | 1.260 | 6.8 | 0.4 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 2.06 |
| 10 | RP | * | 30 | 1 | 1 | 3.31 | 49.0 | 136 | 1.531 | 10.1 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 1.30 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/24/2011.
Generated 10/24/2011.
Of course, we know how events unfolded for the Yankees and the Red Sox during the late ’90s. The Yankees won the World Series each year from 1998-2000, and came very close to doing it again in 2001. Meanwhile the Sox struggled to find that elusive ring much to their fans chagrin; although from 1998-2000, Pedro utterly dominated the American league (he came in second in CY voting in 1998 and won the award both years in 1999 and 2000). In 1999 and 2000 specifically, he posted what very well could have been the most impressive consecutive seasons by a starting pitcher ever.
While we as fans like to associate Pedro with a malicious “Who’s your Daddy?” chant, the truth of the matter is, during the late ’90s (and even early ’00s), Pedro was a truly imposing force. For what it’s worth, during his seven seasons with the Red Sox overall, Pedro went 117-37 with a 2.52 ERA over 1383.2 innings pitched. He averaged 10.9 SO/9, 0.7 HR/9, and 2.0 BB/9. From 1998-2004, Pedro was worth a 47.6 bWAR, or approximately 6.8 bWAR on average each season in one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Despite being a prodigious closer these past 17 years, Mariano’s cumulative career bWAR is 56.3 (from 1998-2004, it would have been a 23.4 or roughly half of Pedro’s)**.
**Obviously, the disparity in WAR is inherent to each of the pitchers’ respective roles.
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | W | L | IP | Awards | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 18 | LAD-min | Rk | 8 | 3 | 3.62 | 77.0 | 8.6 | 0.6 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 2.05 | GRF · PION | |
| 1991 | 19 | LAD-min | AA,A+,AAA | 18 | 8 | 2.28 | 177.1 | 6.4 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 9.7 | 2.91 | SAN,BAK,ABQ · TL,CALL,PCL | |
| 1992 | 20 | LAD-min | AAA | 7 | 6 | 3.81 | 125.1 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 2.18 | ABQ · PCL | |
| 1993 | 21 | LAD-min | AAA | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 4.00 | ABQ · PCL | |
| 1998 | 26 | BOS | AL | 19 | 7 | 2.89 | 233.2 | 7.2 | 1.0 | 2.6 | 9.7 | 3.75 | AS,CYA-2,MVP-21 | |
| 1999 | 27 | BOS | AL | 23 | 4 | 2.07 | 213.1 | 6.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 13.2 | 8.46 | AS,CYA-1,MVP-2 | |
| 2000 | 28 | BOS | AL | 18 | 6 | 1.74 | 217.0 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 11.8 | 8.88 | AS,CYA-1,MVP-5 | |
| 2001 | 29 | BOS | AL | 7 | 3 | 2.39 | 116.2 | 6.5 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 12.6 | 6.52 | ||
| 2002 | 30 | BOS | AL | 20 | 4 | 2.26 | 199.1 | 6.5 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 10.8 | 5.98 | AS,CYA-2,MVP-20 | |
| 2003 | 31 | BOS | AL | 14 | 4 | 2.22 | 186.2 | 7.1 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 9.9 | 4.38 | CYA-3,MVP-22 | |
| 2004 | 32 | BOS | AL | 16 | 9 | 3.90 | 217.0 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 9.4 | 3.72 | CYA-4 | |
| 2007 | 35 | NYM-min | A+,Rk | 1 | 1 | 4.00 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 8.5 | 4.25 | SCE,MET · FLOR,GULF | |
| 2008 | 36 | NYM-min | A+ | 0 | 1 | 3.00 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | SCE · FLOR | ||
| 2009 | 37 | PHI-min | AA,AAA,A+ | 1 | 1 | 5.11 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 11.7 | 5.33 | REA,LHV,CLW · EL,IL,FLOR | |
| 18 Seasons | 219 | 100 | 2.93 | 2827.1 | 7.1 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 10.0 | 4.15 | |||||
| BOS (7 yrs) | 117 | 37 | 2.52 | 1383.2 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 10.9 | 5.45 | |||||
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com:
Generated 10/25/2011.
| Year | Age | Tm | IP | WAR | Awards | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 26 | BOS | 233.2 | 6.6 | $7,575,000 | AS,CYA-2,MVP-21 |
| 1999 | 27 | BOS | 213.1 | 8.4 | $11,100,000 | AS,CYA-1,MVP-2 |
| 2000 | 28 | BOS | 217.0 | 10.1 | $11,500,000 | AS,CYA-1,MVP-5 |
| 2001 | 29 | BOS | 116.2 | 4.6 | $13,000,000 | |
| 2002 | 30 | BOS | 199.1 | 5.7 | $14,000,000 | AS,CYA-2,MVP-20 |
| 2003 | 31 | BOS | 186.2 | 7.4 | $15,500,000 | CYA-3,MVP-22 |
| 2004 | 32 | BOS | 217.0 | 4.8 | $17,500,000 | CYA-4 |
| 18 Seasons | 2827.1 | 75.9 | $146,259,585 | |||
| BOS (7 yrs) | 1383.2 | 47.6 | $90,175,000 | |||
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com:
Generated 10/25/2011.
Generated 10/25/2011.
Frankly, not much needs to be said about Mariano at this juncture. He’s the greatest closer of all time and was an absolutely integral member of all those championships. Without him, who knows if the team wins any titles (regardless of whether or not the rotation includes Pedro). On the other hand, perhaps New York would have been even more successful from 2001-2004 (assuming they resigned Pedro as Boston did, which I assume they probably would have) since the they may not have had to rely on as many aging, declining veteran pitchers in the postseason.
The same speculation can be directed at Boston’s fate too. Perhaps without Pedro’s services, the Sox don’t reach the playoffs in 2003 or 2004. Maybe they hit the century mark without a ring. Or, maybe, Boston fans are the ones mercilessly chanting “Who’s your daddy” to a pinstriped-clad Pedro in 2003 after they revamp their organization in a totally different fashion, bringing some other incredible pitcher’s services to Boston in the process. Unfortunately for us, it’s basically impossible to know how the paths of all the players involved with both teams may have been effected.
Although we have no way to know how history would have been rewritten had the trade gone through, it’s still fun to think about. Looking back, I’m really happy the Yankees offer was refuted and they wound up with Mariano. Over the years, he has become one of my all-time favorite players. That said, at the time of the trade proposal, I think I would have been utterly ecstatic for Pedro’s services. Moreover, I certainly can’t blame the Yankees at the time for preferring excellent starting pitching over potentially excellent bullpen pitching. I’m not sure there’s a team in baseball who wouldn’t have had taken their chances with Pedro at that time. Frankly, he was that good.
I’d like to believe that if the trade had gone through, we’d probably be looking back on Pedro’s career fondly and with gratitude. Also, if we had access to the old crystal ball back in 1997, Martinez might look a hell of a lot more appealing compared with some of the ineffective pitchers destined to idle around in the coming years prior to 2009. Of course, those championship rings are pretty sweet, and I’m sure none of us would trade them in for anything.
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I would have made the trade and signed Rivera as a free agent as soon as he came on the market.
Hah! That might be the closest means of “having your cake and being able to eat it too.”
Ha I was going to say the exact same thing. No way Montreal would of ponied up the 10 million plus to a closer, we definitely could of had Rivera back.
This is as fascinating a trade what if as you’ll ever find because I think everyone in the Yankee-verse would have been thrilled to get Martinez at that time. The irony, however, is that the Yankees would have potentially been worse off. Hind sight is 20-20, but the Yankees won three consecutive WS titles with excellent starting pitching without Pedro, while Mariano made history.
Who’s closing those ball games without Mo? As tantalizing as this would have been at the time, the Yanks lucked out.
I’m not so sure they would have been worse off. With Pedro there might have been fewer games that needed saving. Also, as great as Mo has been the importance of the closer role has been exaggerated to the point of mythology. Other guys would have saved many of those same games, perhaps in less stylish fashion and probably with more drama but saved them just the same.
It’s an interesting alternative history but I don’t know that it would have altered the outcomes from 1998-2001 much (I don’t remember what happened but it looks from Pedro’s record that he might have been hurt in 2001 and thus might not have been of too much help in the WS). In 2002 and 2004 Pedro might have been more valuable to the Yankees than Mo as in 2002 they got poor starting pitching in the ALDS (Mo only appeared in one game) and in 2004 they simply ran out of starting pitchers in the ALDS (of course, retaining Andy Pettitte and/or Roger Clemens would have addressed that situation just as well).
Great write-up Matt. We all love Mo, but Pedro was an absolute beast for many years. It’s quite possible the Yankees may have won more WS championships with Pedro over Mo, but again, there’s no real way to tell. I agree, had the trade gone through, we’d probably be looking back on Pedro’s career in pinstripes and saying how great he was. However, we’re still marveling at how great Mo is. Overall, I’m happy how things turned out. Mo’s career probably wouldn’t have been as historic had he worn anything but pinstripes.
From 1998 on, Martinez had a bWAR of 54.0. From 1998, Rivera had a bWAR of 46.6. And of course, Martinez bunch his bWAR into much better years, and then a few crappy ones.
On the other hand, I argue that Rivera has extra value because of his consistency. For 15 years, they’ve been able to throw him out there and get a good season. He doesn’t have bad years, they don’t have to suffer through an off half year where they worry if he’s through, they don’t have to audition guys every year for three months to see if they can be closers. That’s pretty valuable.
Add in that the Yankees won 3 straight championships, and I wouldn’t change a thing.