One thing is for sure, no one looks cooler finishing off a pitch.
Stephen Rhoads at RAB scooped me Thursday. My intention had been to write a post investigating how much money might be in a position to get once he hits free agency. Rhoads beat me to the punch, forcing me to change my focus. Fortunately for me, I came across another idea while researching my Cano salary post.
Rhoads was elaborating upon a rumor that Scott Boras has approached the Yankees about renegotiating Cano’s current contract. Stephen concluded that Robbie may be in a position to get a six year, $100 million deal from the Yankees. He linked to a Mike Axisa post from the summer that suggested Cano may be due for a six year, $120 million pay out. Those contract numbers represent serious bank for Robbie, but Cano is a steal at those prices because he’s one of the best players in baseball … right? Right?
Robinson is an immensely talented baseball player. He’s tantalized fans and scouts alike with his natural ability since he burst onto the scene in 2005 to replace an injured (and awful) . He locked up his reputation as one of the best players in the entire sport in 2010, when he had his best season to date. He reinforced his reputation as one of the game’s best with a stellar 2011 season.
An annual salary of $17 to $20 million would make Robinson Cano one of baseball’s twenty highest paid players. That isn’t such a big deal, given Cano’s reputation as being one of the game’s twenty best players. The dirty little secret, however, is that, as good as Robbie is, the operative word in these last two paragraphs is reputation. Robbie may have a reputation as being one of the game’s best, but the numbers don’t back that up.
In terms of WAR, wOBA, Home Runs, SLG and OBP — reputation too — 2010 was far and away Robinson’s best season in baseball. He had an amazing year, posting 6.5 fWAR, a .389 wOBA, 29 homers, a .534 SLG and a .381 OBP. That was an amazing season, an All Star season to say the least. It wasn’t, however, a top ten season in baseball that year.
Cano’s fWAR of 6.5 ranked 11th in the game in 2010 among position players. That’s amazing, but it isn’t as amazing as the hype surrounding that season would suggest. His wOBA rates similarly. Cano placed 12th in all of baseball in 2010, which is truly phenomenal, but to hear people talk about it you’d think Robbie was one of the top five hitters in the game. He wasn’t. His .389 2010 wOBA was tied with Ryan Zimmerman‘s mark, and just .001 points ahead of . Both of those guys are excellent ball players, but neither’s 2010 season was as hyped as Cano’s.
2011 tells a similar story. Once again, Robbie had a great season. He posted 5.6 fWAR with a .375 wOBA, 28 homers, a .533 SLG and a .349 OBP. That was an All Star caliber season, but it wasn’t one of the top seasons in all of baseball. In 2010 he came close to having one of the top seasons in baseball. He didn’t come close in 2011. His fWAR ranked 22nd in the entire game while his wOBA was 27th in all of baseball. He placed just ahead of . Is anyone talking about giving Aramis $100 million?
This raises three questions. Is Robbie overrated, as my title implies? If so, why is he overrated? And, regardless, given that he’s critical to the Yankees’ long-term success and will soon be a free-agent, should he be as highly paid as Stephen and Mike at RAB suggest? I’ll tackle these in order.
Bluntly put, Robbie is overrated. Don’t get me wrong. Robbie is great. He’s phenomenal. I never want to see him in another uniform for the rest of his career. But, just about everyone who follows baseball, professional and amateur alike, talks about Cano as though he’s been one of the game’s single best players for the last couple of seasons. That’s simply not true. He’s been one of the top fifteen to twenty position players in the last two seasons, but he hasn’t been as good as the hype. Perhaps this is a cruel application of the definition of overrated, but the facts are when someone is not as good as we claim, he is overrated.
There are two reasons why Robbie is (just a little) overrated. First, he plays in New York. He’s succeeding on the world’s biggest stage. That will make any star burn brighter. Second, Robbie looks so good playing baseball that we think he’s better than he is. Cano is one of the most graceful, exciting baseball players I’ve ever seen in a lifetime of watching this game. When he does something good on the field, its often something astounding, and he executes with pizazz. Whether its running down a ball in the gap and making an impossible throw to first across his body or dropping his bat and briefly admiring a ball that he’s just hit into the stratosphere, Robbie does a lot of things in baseball that no one else can do. The problem is that he does many near-impossible things so well that we forget to notice all the essential things that he does badly, like take pitches. We overrate Cano because he’s so much fun to watch play baseball that we naturally think he’s better than he is.
All that said, even if we say Robbie is a top five player when he is not, he is still a top twenty player who will be a free agent after the 2013 season at the latest, which would be just his age 30 season. Should the Yankees make him not just one of the top twenty highest paid position players in the game, but one of the top twenty highest paid players, period? I vote yes, resoundingly, slightly overrated or not (and I emphasize slightly, because Robbie is obviously an elite player).
Since 2009 Robbie has accumulated 16.4 fWAR, while hitting .314/.361/.529, for a .378 wOBA. That may not make him a top ten position player, but it does rank 13th in the game during that time. Among second basemen only and have been better during that stretch, and not by much. Setting defense aside, Robbie’s .378 wOBA during that stretch is 14th in the game and tops among all second basemen. Having turned 29 this October, Robbie figures to be one of the game’s elite second basemen for the next five or six years. He figures to be worth at least $18 million a season to the Yankees. The team should pay him fairly and lock him up for a few more seasons if it can. He is, after all, perhaps the game’s best second basemen, even if he’s not perhaps its best player.
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I also think Cano gets recognition as a great player because he plays 2nd base. Traditionally not a power position until players like Utley came into their own. The same thing could have been said about Jeter and A-Rod back in the day because they played SS.
I agree, he’s a valuable asset at second base. Interestingly, one thing I noticed when writing this post is that 2B is the new SS. There are a lot of talented second basemen right now: Cano, Pedroia, Kinsler, Utley, even Zobrist, if you want to think of him at the position.
I think the analysis underplays his defensive skills. In more than 50 years of watching the game I’ve never seen a 2nd baseman with greater range or a better arm. His pivots on double plays are a thing of beauty.
Cano’s defense is tough to rate. He passes the eye test with flying colors, but defensive metrics don’t love his range.
That is because defensive metrics are a joke. According to the metrics, Teixeira is not a good 1st baseman.
uh, no.
Certainly not, but CC sure as hell is.
How?
First it was Jeter’s turn to here about being “overrated” for the past 16 years (which is just crap) and now I guess they are tired of picking on Derek so it’s Robby’s turn.
Yeah, totally. It’s not like Mike had really well reasoned and well supported arguments in this piece.
Matt, you got my back!
Circling back to this, Derek Jeter was never overrated. People outside New York frequently hated him, but baseball prognosticators said he was one of the best players in the game because … he was. According to fWAR, from 1996 to 2009, inclusive, Derek Jeter was the 5th best player in all of baseball, accumulating 69.8 fWAR.
I think the problem using fWAR is that for some reason, UZR really hates Cano. We’ve talked about this before. Other defensive metrics paint a much better picture and if you use those, Cano doesn’t appear to be very overrated at all.
Here’s a good example of what I’m talking about, from Rhoads Cano/Pedroia piece earlier this year http://riveraveblues.com/2011/07/the-great-cano-vs-pedroia-debate-51934/
Sean, I agree that fWAR is flawed. In fact, WAR is flawed in general, but that was why I included wOBA in the analysis as well. Even with the bat, Cano isn’t a top ten player because his high AVG doesn’t translate into a stellar OBP. He and Tex both had similar OBP’s this year, even though Robbie had a much, much higher average.
And Cano still had the second highest wOBA on the team, 14 points higher than Tex. Even if you wanted to use the ridiculous Fangraphs value thing, which I hate by the way, it has Cano valued at 25 million for his past season. He’s gonna get 10 below that. I think even with that numbers obvious flaws, he’s clearly not in danger of being drastically over paid.
No, there is little risk that Cano will be drastically over paid. Given the Yankee budget I’d take Cano even if his salary hit $23 million per year at a certain point. If you trust the Fangraphs value metrics then he would be getting precisely what he’s worth. Even if you don’t, Cano works well on the Yankees. We could swap him Pedroia or Kinsler and not get the same results. Sometimes you have to pay to keep a winning formula together.
Yeah I think he’s a perfect fit for the team and his options won’t come close to overpaying him. He’s been the best offensive player for them over the past two years and nobody plays in as many games as he does. There are a lot of better examples of players being overpaid to go over before we start worrying about Cano in my opinion.
Well said. Also, hey Sean!
I love Cano, but I think he is definitely overrated (see e.g. Jim Leyland calling him one of the best 5 players in the game.)
I think it stems from 2 reasons. First, many people are STILL hung up on batting average. They see his strong batting averages, and think he’s a tough out, when in fact he gives away lots of at bats. This is a real shame, because we’ve all seen what he does when he gets good pitches to hit.
Second, similar to Jeter, he has a flashy “signature” play: scooping up grounders up the middle and flinging them effortlessly to first. Like Jeter’s “jump throw” it leads observers to erroneously conclude that Cano is one of the best fielding 2B out there.
He’s got the best swing on the team, and maybe the nicest swing of any Yankee I’ve ever seen. But he also has one of the worst batter’s eyes as well, and is only adequate at best, with the glove. Still an outstanding player, but not in the truly upper echelon.
Perfectly put. Cano is so much fun to watch play baseball that it makes the things he does badly harder to notice.
Adding to your point, I think that people look at Cano’s talent, and rate him on his potential. He has the potential to be one of the five best players in the game, but he doesn’t always realize it. If he had better plate discipline, combined with that swing, he’d be a beast.
Right on the nose! Watching him at bat you just wonder which Robby will it be this time. Will it be the patient Robby that let’s the location of the pitch dictate which part of the field his lightening quick hands will spray the baseball or the gotta-pull-the-ball Robby that will try to yank an outside pitch resulting in a soft ground ball to second.
I can only imagine the things Kevin Long mumbles under his breath after he and Robbie go over charts, put together a plan for an at-bat, agree that Robbie isn’t going to swing at pitches outside of the zone, only for Cano to turn around and chase a high, inside fastball blazing past his eyes.
Nice piece, Mike. I don’t know that I necessarily agree with the premise, but you make an interesting case.
Cano is obviously a fantastic hitter, but the one thing that always comes up in conversations about Cano — pretty sure Imbrogno and I have discussed this several times — that keeps him being one of the very best players in the game is his general lack of plate discipline. I thought his 8.2% walk rate was highly encouraging last year, but that it fell to 5.6% this season seems like one of the more underreported stories of the season, presumably because Cano still had a very good year.
Sifting through the list of top wOBAs, the only player ahead of Cano with a lower OBP is Adrian Beltre, and while Beltre had a very good year and has been a lot of fun to watch this postseason, you pretty much have to force him at gunpoint to take a walk (4.8% BB%).
I’ve heard arguments suggesting that because Cano is such a good hitter it’s better that he be aggressive and not necessarily work the count, but that seems like a load of crap. Miguel Cabrera — he of the second-best wOBA in all of baseball in 2011 — swung at 49.6% of the pitches he saw, well above the Major League average of 46.2%, but still took a walk 15.7% of the time which helped him to an insane .448 OBP. Now I’m not suggesting Cano is quite in the same class as Cabrera, but he’s also not really that far off, either. Both players are known to hit for high averages — Cano’s a career .308 hitter, Cabrera .317 — and of course, power, though Cabrera has a much larger advantage in that department, .555 career SLG to Cano’s .496.
Still, this past season Cabrera only thumped 30 bombs, his lowest total since 2006, while Cano hit 28. Cabrera also only had nine more hits than Cano, but his batting average was way higher because he had 50 less at-bats due to his incredible walk rate.
Re-reading all of this, I never really realized just how close Cano and Cabrera actually are as hitters except Cabrera has way more patience. So basically if Robinson Cano started taking walks, he could be Miguel Cabrera. So yeah, about that whole “Cano needs to be aggressive thing”? Not so much.
My general point is just that we speak of Cano as a top five player, the way Miguel Cabrera is currently, when in fact he’s a top 20 player.
Cano is phenomenal. He’s a top 20 freakin’ baseball player! He is one of the 20 best professionals in the world at his job. He’s just not quite as good as we frequently suggest he is.
The follow on is then to ask, why? And you’ve nailed the answer. (Kevin Long has said as much.) Cano is only in the top 20, and not the top 5, because he never, ever, ever, ever walks. If he did, would he be Miguel Cabrera? Yes. Yes he would.
That’s a really interesting comparison between Cano and Cabrera, Larry.
No Cano isn’t overrated, I think everyone rates him about right. Everyone pretty much agrees he’s one of the top 20 players in the game, and he’s arguably the best player at his position. Cano’s flaw, what prevents him from being a top 5 player is his impatience, its not a secret. He also is punished this year for his first two months, where he did not walk much as well as offensively in regards to his dreadful May . His discipline did improve (by Cano standards)as the season went on.
This is the dumbest article I’ve read this year so far … How can he be overated n hav a career b.a over 300??? .. he was second in da league with 81 xtra base hits in 2011 Smh .. n he’s overated so I guess pedroia is 2 . Cuz cano is better den pedroia .. all of those stats yall r reading r flawed … Da only thing I agree with frm dis article is cano needs 2 be more patient
Is this sarcasm? With the “da” “den” and “dis” I can’t tell…
Seems english as a first language is over rated to jon…
i hope he is more patient this year, he would hit .330
Very good article. I know I certainly am guilty of talking about Robinson in terms of potential, and very rarley deal in the reality of his production. To this point however he has always been young enough for me to just assume he would eventually put it all together, and then become that top 5 player I talk about him as. You have to believe at this point though that he is what he is, and will never walk, and work counts more than he does now.
I’ll say this though, if the worst we have to worry about with Cano is him only being a top 15-20 player, I’ll take it with a smile. Haha.
Is Robinson Cano overrated? Yes, maybe, if people think he’s a Top 5 player when really he’s Top 20-30.
Does that mean Robinson Cano would be overVALUED if he were paid 6/120? No, not at all.
1. If you take fWAR, and recognize that the marginal win is worth about $5 million on the open market, then giving Cano $20 million would still be an underpay for the next 4 years (assuming WAR degredation of about .5/season past 30).
2. You’re arguing that if Cano were paid $20 million, he’s be roughly 10th among player salaries, but only 30th in performance (fWAR), therefore he is overvalued. What you’re missing is that many of those players ahead of Cano are not FA eligible, and therefore could not be acquired on the open market.
Among players with 6 or more years of service time, Cano was 17th in fWAR in 2011. Since 2009 (which wipes out some of the randomness of single season performance), Cano was 13th among position players and 21st overall. But among players who could have been available on the open market, he was 11th (Braun, Bautista, Longoria, Greinke, etc. are all under 6 years).
In other words, 6/120 would be right in line with what you’d pay the 11th most valuable player on the open market (the 11th highest salary is currently Beltran at $19.3 million). With inflation, it’s probably a steal.
One very significant factor regarding “worth” not mentioned in the article Is that Robbie is ultra durable. Out there every day. Never hurt. Last time was a hammie for a month in 2006. There is no metric to value that. When you’re hurt, almost always your replacement is not good. Robbie’s value, his worth to the team, and his greatness are all raised many notches because he is out there every day
You, and all sports writers are idiots. Everyone is overrated.
You think your bWars, bBAPs, fWARs can decide who is better or deserving of salaries? They’re ALL overrated. They are athletes, gets a grip. We idolize them all. We hype them all. Get it, now?
I certainly don’t, because your post makes no sense. I certainly don’t “idolize” any sports athlete. However that is besides the point, since no one is talking about being overrated in comparison to anyone other than other baseball players.
Players do have rankings, some are simply better than others. So if you rank one above more productive players they are in fact overrated. No ones talking about anything else, so you can calm down, get off the soapbox, and stop calling people you don’t know idiots. Be a little more mature please.
The Yankee’s should assign Robby Cano a book report on Ted Williams book The Art of Hitting. Maybe he would learn to pay attention to the hitting zones that he excels in.
I guess tony n t.o. r English teachers lol … if u can’t compromise what I’m writing den you both need special learning … Now back 2 cano … How is he overated n he’s the best 2nd basemsn hands down … Memba aaron hill was giving cano a run for his money as the best 2nd baseman … Where’s he now ??? Umm traded 2 Arizona .. trying 2 resurrect his career … Ppl always tryna find sumtin wrong with a gifted player lik cano … Being patient is all he needs 2 excel to top 5 .. rite now he is top 10 !!
I wasn’t trying to offend you, I seriously couldn’t tell if you were being serious or not. I see now you were in fact serious.
Cano is probably the best 2nd baseman in the game, though a healthy Chase Utley makes it closer than hands down. However I know I certainly overrate Cano, I consistently talk about him as one of the best 5 players in the whole game. I do this because of his potential, and the fact that he makes the game look so easy. He isn’t however top 5 at this current time, so I am guilty of overrating the guy based on what he could be.
People seem to take the word “overrated” as insulting said player, when in this case it simply is meant to make you evaluate the player on actual production vs potential ability.
if Cano learned to be more patient, stopped swinging at as many bad balls, and walked more he would be a top 5 player pretty easy with his sweet swing and power. I however don’t think he will ever do that, at 29 he’s a finished product.
Granderson hit .262 this year. He struck out 169 times and hit .240 with runners in scoring position. He limped home in September with an OPS of less than .700. His overall defense was marginal, and probably worse. His salary for 2012 is right around what Cano will be making.
Granderson is a sub .270 lifetime hitter.
Let’s really focus on an overrated player.
Maybe after this season some people will start to overrate Grandy, but certainly not before it. If anything coming into this year he was underrated, as many Yankee and baseball fans didn’t appreciate his skills enough.
Sure Granderson isn’t as good as Cano, but no one said he was. No one thinks of Grandy as a top 5 player the way they do of Cano. Overratedness is directly linked to perception of skill, not actual skill. I think most people now see Granderson as what he is, a very good overall centerfielder, but not an elite overall player.
Interesting points you bring up about Cano.
But take this into account: How many incredible players (Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, Tony Womack, Kenny Lofton, Lance Berkman, Randy Johnson the Future Hall-of-Famer) just to name a few, have made great names for themselves, then come to New York and completely crumble? Cano has consistently (although his notoriety surfaced two years ago) been a quality player in a very pressured enviornment.
Also, you talk only of his batting rankings. But what of his stellar fielding? The best 2nd base fielding in the game perhaps? No other 2nd baseman, (and hardly any position players) have a unique combination of high-calibler offensive and defensive abilities. (and in the clutch to add the cherry on top).
So to conclude, I don’t believe Cano is overrated by any means. (maybe awarded his stature prematurely?) but not overrated.
By all defensive metrics Cano is at best slightly above average to below it, depending on which numbers you go by. He passes the eye test as a good 2nd baseman defensively, but you have to wonder if that is because he makes such awe inspiring plays. Because metrics don’t love his range, or his consistency in that department.
In 2009 the “metrics” had Prince Fielder being a better first baseman than Mark Teixeira.
Defensive metrics are mostly useless.
I agree that UZR certainly has its flaws, but I’m not for dismissing them altogether. Cano makes plays that I don’t think any other 2nd baseman in baseball can make, this I think most people would agree with. But I don’t know if his range is necessarily at the top of the leader board for 2nd baseman.
I don’t understand this article…out of about 800 ball players in the MLB and this guy admits Cano is one of the top 20 players in the game. Yet he is overrated? If he is in the top 20 baseball players in the majors, that sounds like he is appropriately rated to me. He has performed better than 780 players in his same profession at arguably one of the toughest sports to play in the best league to do so in in the entire world. He may not be in the top 5 but at his position I wouldn’t want any other player in the game. Regardless of his plate discipline. The only other player I could compare him to at second base is Pedroia. And I HATE the Redsox. So obviously Cano>Pedroia on that basis alone. Oh and how is Miguel Cabrera one of the top 5 players in the game? Hitters yea, but overall ball player? I don’t know about that one either.
I don’t get how people don’t understand this point…
Being overrated has nothing to do with where you are ranked in terms of every player in the league. It has to do with where you are ranked versus how you are percieved to be ranked. If you don’t think Cano is anymore than top 20 he isn’t overrated to you, but all the people who claim him to be top 5 (myself included) are overrating him.
Jim Leyland has said he thinks he is one of the 5 best players in baseball, the numbers don’t back that up. This is overrating. Cano has the talent and potential to be that kind of player, though he hasn’t produced quite at that level.
This isn’t an insult, it’s suppose to be a thought provoking question/post. People are really missing the boat on this whole thing.
If you don’t think Cabrera is right there with Pujols as one of the best handful of players in baseball, I don’t know what to say, other than go look at his numbers.
Ok I can understand how some people can overrate Cano as a top 5 all around ball player today. But also you can argue that everyone that are considered the best in the game are overrated. Numbers only go so far in examining a ball player. They change constantly and there is always some sort of statistical category a player will lack in compared to other players. I guess then what I don’t understand now is it seems like you know he isn’t that super elite player, but you overrate him to be anyway. I get you perceive him to be that way, but if you know he is not, why continue to overrate him then? You’re basically admitting you’re wrong. I agree he could be one of the best players in the game, but like you said, the numbers haven’t backed him up yet. That is why I personally didn’t overrate him.
Every player talked about as the best isn’t overrated, Pujols is clearly one of these players. He is head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. He is putting up numbers that put him in a ruthian stratosphere, and his defense is very solid as well. You just have to identify the players who are living up to their billing versus those simply being talked up based on potential, or blind followings.
Most people still talk about Cano in terms of potential, and that’s what leads to saying he is a top 5 player. I WAS wrong when I talked about him as a player in that echelon of player before. I never separated the potential from actual production, which is why this is such a good topic to get on. I now admit that he is a top 15-20 player, with the potential to get into a higher level. Though I think he is probably going to plateau off at this level, since I don’t think he will ever walk more.
I believe many people are taking this as Mike degrading Cano, when in actuality he is simply asking you to reevaluate your own perception of the man.