Mike Axisa over at RAB did a yesterday summing up Phil Hughes’ disastrous 2011 season:
The plan was to put Hughes on a throwing program after a few days of rest, and things went well at first. He was ready to start a minor league rehab assignment about two weeks after his start against the Orioles, but the team cut short a bullpen session after just a dozen pitches and called it a “setback.” Hughes was sent for an MRI the next day, and after some concerns about low-level thoracic outlet syndrome, it was announced that he’d miss another six-to-eight weeks with shoulder inflammation that was bad enough to require a cortisone shot. While all that was going on, a report came out that Hughes showed up to camp out of shape, leading to speculation about how it may have contributed to his arm troubles.
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All told, Hughes pitched to 5.79 ERA with a 4.58 FIP in 74.2 IP in 2011. Even if you disregard his first three starts, when he clearly wasn’t right, he still had a 4.48 ERA with a ~3.90 ERA in 64.1 post-DL innings. His strikeout and swing and miss rates dipped to 5.67 K/9 and 6.2%, respectively, well-below-average and down considerably from 2010. Was the decline the result of poor conditioning? Poor mechanics? The 80.1 IP jump from 2009 to 2010? All of the above? Something else all together? We all have our theories, but the only thing we know for sure is that Hughes heads into the 2012 season as a giant question mark.
I’ll be perfectly honest: I have given up on Phil Hughes, or at least the “Phil Hughes, exciting arm loaded with potential” version. If he gets in shape, gets healthy, and can stay on the field for a sustained period of time, I could see him settling in around his 2010 numbers and being a solid #3 in the AL East moving forward. But the exciting prospect that we fell in love with during that no-hit bid in Texas, the one who we always noted had #1 or #2 potential? That guy is gone, and I just do not see him coming back.
There are reasonable arguments to the contrary of course. Hughes has been unable to stay healthy for an extended period of team, which has continually sabotaged his development. If he could just stay on the field, the argument goes, he might be able to recapture his former greatness and pay off on the potential he flashed in the minors and in his first stint in the majors. Additionally, his age-24 season was an extremely good showing considering the difficulty of the competition in the division, and his poor 2011 may have been the result of his large jump in innings from 2009 to 2010.
But I just do not buy it. My skepticism has nothing to do with statistics or age or health or anything of that sort. It is based on the eye test and scouting. The projection of Hughes as an ace was always predicated on two things: his development of a consistent third pitch, and his outstanding command of his pitches, particularly of his fastball. Hughes has never had a varied repertoire while in the majors, relying on his fastball and curveball while forever developing a third pitch. He has dabbled with the changeup and cutter and considered going back to his slider, but nothing has really stuck. Whether it was due to injuries or lack of ability, Hughes has simply never been able to establish a consistent third pitch.
That leaves him a two pitch pitcher, which would be fine if he still possessed fantastic fastball command. Putting the fastball exactly where he wanted it allowed 90-93 MPH to play a lot faster, and was the key to Hughes’ success. But I have not seen Phil’s command be anything better than solid since early 2010, and it was quite atrocious during all of 2011. Throw in the fact that Hughes is prone to bouts of inconsistency with his curveball, and you have AJ Burnett with better control but worse stuff. There is nothing there that screams “a top starter in the AL East.” Our hopes regarding his potential are based on old scouting reports and a few exciting performances, but we should start to trust what we see in front of us at some point. Everything that I have seen suggests that Phil will never be an ace, and that any hopes to that end are likely just residual wishful thinking, an echo of the lofty expectations from Phil’s prospect days.
I hope that I am dead wrong, and that people dredge this post up for years to point out how dumb it is to give up on a 25 year old pitcher. But I really doubt that happens. The Yankees need to start from scratch with Hughes. Make him compete for a job in spring training, push him to get into great shape, and see if he can rediscover his great command, sharpen his stuff, or add a third pitch. If he can do any of those things, he could likely return to 2010 levels. But a return to the halcyon days when he was seen as a future ace is unlikely. The future is now, and Phil Hughes the Ace is nowhere to be found.
(Thanks to Stephen Rhoads of RAB for inspiring portions of this post)
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Moshe, would a solid #3 be so bad if that’s what Hughes ultimately turns out to be. I don’t think so.
Not at all, it would be very solid at this point. But it would mean that he didn’t leave up to the lofty expectations.
Solid #3 is fine, but if you look at the back of his baseball card and didn’t hear all the hype, you would think he’s a back of the rotation guy who hasn’t stayed healthy enough to give you innings. Those are the types of guys most teams non-tender when they start making serious money, and Phil is in his 2nd year of arb.
I do think that Phil still has some upside, but its mostly as a reliever. I’ve seen enough of him as a starter.
I think he is more likely to end up in the bullpen, passed by other young pitchers with either higher upside or better realization of their promise, or both.
Start Joba!
Sigh. I wish.
Yanks should let joba start in aaa next year. Maybe he gets second life in his arm.
Hughes was first prospect that i followed in minors. But i gave up on him. Dont think he has it be great. While joba has the fire to be great
They certainly should, but they never let him start in triple A in the first place. They used triple A his first time around to get him ready for the bullpen, and ruined his development. At this point I think they have completely given up on Joba the starter, and I don’t see how they are going to change their minds. I’m just afraid Joba may go somewhere else and realize his potential as a starter.
I have pretty much no doubt that is exactly what will happen. In a way, I’m kind of looking forward to it too.
Wow! When even Moshe gives up……….
I remember seeing Phil when he was in the minors in person and remember telling my friend that I didn’t like his arm action and the way he finished his pitches. He told me I was nuts (it was one of his 6 inning, 10k type games) but it just did not seem to sit right with me. He never seemed to throw free and easy and it worried me because I figured he was either on his way to being injury prone, or a wearing down of velocity in a short period of time because of it.
Also, add me to the list of people who think Joba should be given a chance to start since he has a “blank slate”
Thank you! I have also given up on Hughes being more than a number 3 or 4 pitcher for the Yankees. Its his delivery, it seems so forced. A real max effort guy, and he has very little margin for error. This is why I think this offseason the Yankees need to resign CC and add another pitcher, be it Darvish, Wilson, or even EJax. Hughes ultimate upside to me isn’t higher than EJax honestly. Yes we should stick with him, but I wouldn’t pencil him into any of the top spots in the rotation. As it stands now, until Hughes proves he can be healthy let alone effective, the Yankees have two number 5 pitchers with Hughes and Burnett.
He’s been a giant disappointment, for sure, for many reasons. His stuff is not that good – I can’t believe his leg injuries caused his stuff to diminish this badly, so perhaps his minor league #s were due to his just maturing a lot earlier than the kids he was facing. Phil had a rep of being a smart pitcher, but he’s really not. He makes the same mistakes over and over again – a lot of them at the wrong moment. He also has been unable to develop any secondary pitches (particularly the curve) with any consistency – it’s remarkable how mediocre he’s been in that regard.
I do not think he’ll be on the team much longer. I would expect him to get until the ASB to show his stuff – if he’s not good enough, he’ll be sent to the pen until either the team trades him for whatever they can get for him or they let him go when he’s a FA. Maybe this year he’ll come into camp in shape.
Phil short-arms the ball – and he seems to have a slight hitch as well. If he fails to live up to expectations, he can join a long list of players who did so.
His throwing motion was not problem. He hide ball well. He just didnt know how to finish batters. When i watch his game i knew what pitch he going to throw next. So many foul balls. In minors he killed on pure stuff.
Well when you only have 2 pitches you trust in it’s a lot easier for the batter to know what’s coming, thus resulting in more foul balls. I still fully believe control is his biggest problem. He thinks he can throw the ball past people if he simply throws hard enough, but the problem is his velocity isn’t that kind of fast, and he is very erratic within the strikezone.
I actually think his time in the pen made this worse. When he was moved to the pen, and his stuff picked up, he was still erratic within the zone but he was blasting right by people. However he never seemed to make the transition back to a control pitcher when he was moved to the rotation, and his stuff wasn’t good enough to do that anymore.
Pitch n location. Was hughes fan n try to follow his start with mlb gamecast. But it seem to me his third pitch, changeup was the pitch where batters homer off him early in his career. I think he shy away from developing that pitch. Them he found the cutter were batters are fouling off that pitch n grew to love the cutter.
Phil Hughes is the perfect example of fans falling in love with a prospect, and not viewing him realistically. So many people wanted Hughes to be a future ace, that anytime he showed he any signs he wasn’t, someone said he wasn’t the shields went up.
I never saw him as much more than a 3-4 guy, with max upside if everything went right as a number 2. He always presented as Burnett-, a fastball curveball pitcher without the plus plus stuff on either pitch to get away with 2 pitches as much as AJ did.
I’d be happy if he just made every start next year, and posted and ERA of 4.20 or below. Maybe the low expectations this time around will lead to us all being surprised with the outcome.
You nailed it with the description of what he currently is: AJ with more control but less raw stuff. He’s only 25 though and sometimes pitchers have to experience adversity to make the adjustments that they need to really improve. I expect him to rebound and a be a key member of the staff next season.
That said, I think his ceiling is probably a two with a 3-4 more likely. I’m not as down on him as you are because I never really believed that he had Ace potential. His fastball is too straight and he doesn’t have a deep enough of a repertoire to make up for that.
The only thing that gives me hope is his age. We kept saying that about Melky, and lo and behold he had a breakout year in KC. But that was after bottoming out with the Braves, and I’m glad we missed that.
When it comes to young players, the road to success is often so bumpy and its tough to fail in NY where the pressure to perform is so great.
Devils advocate question: if he is nothing more than a number 4 or 5 starter (neither if he can’t stay healthy) is he more useful to the Yankees in the pen? I know a young average starter is probably more valuable than an elite reliever but I think the guy is below average. Are they better off opening that rotation spot to a free agent or letting one of the many kids down in the farm take over and moving him to the pen?
Yes, and don’t be surprised if that’s where he ends up this year. His stuff plays up there, and he doesn’t miss bats as a starter at this level the way he did in the minors.
“His stuff plays up a lot better out of the pen.” Haunting words but I think the Yanks got it wrong. Joba start and Hughes to the pen…eh w.e. When Hughes gets moved to the pen this year for Phelps, Warren, or Noesi it wont matter. He can be the bridge to Jo/So/Ro/Mo!!! 5 inning games haha. I kind of expected a debate or some backlash to this comment. Little bit disappointed.
Call me contrary, but I think you’re all full of beans. Phil’s poor arm was tired, which accentuated his short-armed bear claw sort of delivery. As the life comes back, he will throw easier, and strain his shoulder less. He’s been pitching on will power.
But I don’t mind if he should start the season at the long end of the bullpen. And I agree he needs to be working on that third pitch.
awh, when he gets both his cutter and slider working, you’ll sing a new reality.
Folks seem to forget that most of Phil’s work as a starter has been mediocre at best for FIVE seasons. He was bad in the beginning of 09 before he transitioned to the bullpen, bad in the 2nd half of 2010, bad and/or hurt in 07 and 08. His resume as a starter is one good first half in 2010. I’m sorry, but Jeff Karstens had a good first half in 2011, and he’s awful.
Look at his career splits as a starter vs reliever. It’s like 2 completely different pitchers.
He’s a future reliever. Only 2 pitches and his fastball only plays up in short stints.
I still think a ton of NL teams will be trying for him this winter
Yankees are in no position to be giving up any pitchers unfortunately. Hopefully they aren’t counting on this guy. I mean say Cashman reads this site, agrees with me (assistant GM? Thank you very much i’ll drop out of college for that!) and decides to resign CC, sign Darvish, keep Martin, and pick up Swishers option. Offense fine, but think of the pitching staff still. Its CC and a lot of optimism.
Stop being so hard on the guy, all pitchers have those times where they suck and need to improve their pitches. Phil was good in the second half of last year, and I think with some conditioning and some work on his cutter, and change-up he will be a top of the rotation starter. He also needs to bring on another pitch be it a sinker/2 seamer/ slider or whatever, If he doesn’t try to evolve and sticks with Fastball Curveball his ass is headed back to the pen.
I don’t agree that he was bad before going in the pen in 2009. Yeah, he had that one awful start in Baltimore – that totally skewed his #s. Still, overall, he has not been that good.
Point is, until he proves he can be healthy or consistently effective, he should be the Yankees number 5 pitcher. However what we have is a domino effect from AJ Burnetts ineffectiveness and the 2 years remaining with the club. Burnett pitches like a 5. That’s two rotation spots taken up by guys who give in number 5 performances. Throw in Nova, who outpitched his peripherals a bit this year, and doesn’t miss many bats. To me, he is a number 4 guy with a chance to be a strong 3 if he hits his ceiling (if your optimistic think Chien Ming Wang).
For a pitcher like Hughes, who so obviously needs a 3rd pitch (and some command), the organization should allow him to experiment with some new pitches, like a sinker or a splitter (is it just me or has it seemed like pitchers throw the splitter less these days?). However it would probably be a long shot that he ever masters one of these pitches, as he has never been able to consistently throw the change or even the curve.
So really what we have here is a guy who throws a good fastball (in short spurts) and a show me curveball. Sounds like a reliever to me.
History is rife with examples of young pitchers suddenly “getting it” in their mid to late 20′s. Way to early to write him off, the down-beat hype now is almost as loud as the hype was 5 years ago.
This is exactly why the Yankees fail at developing starting pitching. There is no room for them to ever develop. EVER!!! Unless you pull a Chien Ming Wang or even the year Nova had, you are never going to get fried for failing your first time out. While the media blames it on the fans, it is the media itself to blame. Also it is the front office. People who say he was like another Roger Clemens have to shut the heck up. Maybe in 2006 when he was young and firing the ball, it was different, but he has yet to prove he can get back to that 93-95 fastball consistently.
I also completely agree about the lack of a 3rd pitch, just never seems to get it developed. Hopefully he comes back in good shape next year and we don’t hear about his disappearing fast ball again. He’s 25, but you look at the Yankees rotation right now, and you really don’t have a number 2 pitcher behind CC, unless Nova continues to develop and remains consistent. If Hughes makes some kind of comeback, maybe, but you probably should look to free agency and get Darvish in the fold. Burnett should compete for a spot with Noesi, Warren, Mitchell and Phelps. Then in 2013, we can start looking at Banuelos and Betances coming on board.
But you have to give these guys time. Maybe Hughes figures it out this year. Maybe he doesn’t. I understand the Yanks are a results-now organization, but starting pitching does not work that way and what might be considered a number 2 pitcher in the AL East in Yankee Stadium might always be worse than what people will always hope for.
Done ranting.
I agree with your premise that fans are too quick at times to write players off. I’ve been on the Hughes ship the whole time, even when some fans were writing him off after last years disastorous ALCS (which completely ignored his great ALDS, albeit against the twins).
However the reason I’m starting to let the idea of “Phil Hughes, Ace Pitcher” slip away is because he just doesn’t have the tools. It’s why guys like Daniel Cabrera got so many chances, he had an electric fastball. Hughes’s fastball has looked mediocre most of the time, except when he’s out of the bullpen. And it’s not even like his secondary pitches are that great when they are working, which is very rarely.
I’m still hoping he can succeed, but there is more reasoning for believing he won’t now then there is that he will.