ALDS Performance Highlights The A-Rod Problem Going Forward

By On October 12, 2011 · 18 Comments · In Player Analysis

Joe Posnanski ran through the worst contracts in baseball, and A-Rod placed second:

There’s nothing especially surprising left to say about Alex Rodriguez. He’s 36 years old, and he played a lot of innings at shortstop, and his body’s beat up, and there’s no compelling reason to believe that he can ever play 150 games in a season, much less be a dominant player. And he has SIX YEARS left on that deal. The thing about sports it that when a player starts regressing, the way A-Rod did two or three years ago, people quickly adjust to the new reality. OK, so A-Rod is not a 40- or 50-home run guy anymore, he’s more like a 30-homer guy. But that’s not how regression works. It doesn’t stop at the level of choice. It just keeps on, you know, regressing. Thirty-homer guys become 20-homer guys become 12-homer guys.

If A-Rod could even remain the player he was in 2011 — assuming he could stay healthy long enough to play more than 99 games — then the Yankees would be OK. Sure, a third baseman hitting .276/.362/.461 isn’t worth $30 million a year, or anything close, but he’s still a good player. He’s about as good as any other third baseman, save a Longoria here, a Beltre there. But A-Rod won’t stay at that level, certainly not for another six years, maybe not even for another two years. And the Yankees will be stuck.

The storyline after Alex’s ALDS failures focused on his clutch ability, as if 2009 never happened and he once again just could not handle the spotlight. The real issue that the ALDS highlighted is A-Rod’s inability to stay healthy. He struggled in October not because he could not handle the glare of the harsh postseason lights, but because his thumb was barking, his body was aching, and his infrequent playing time down the stretch did not allow him to get his timing back. He was playing hurt and it cost him.

I have little doubt that if Alex could avoid getting dinged up throughout the season, he would put up the sort of numbers he notched while healthy in April. Alas, it seems that his famed durability (played in fewer than 141 games once from 1996-2007) has abandoned him, and I see no reason to believe that the Yankees can count on him as a middle of the order force as they move forward. The thumb injury that hampered him in the postseason came on a routine play at 3rd base, so insignificant that no one but Alex noticed it at the time. He has now failed to play in more than 138 games in a season since 2007, and his OPS has declined each year during that span. His power, in particular, has abandoned him in his poor health, with his isolated power going from an absurd .333 in 2007 all the way to .185 this season.

The A-Rod problem is not his inability to perform in the clutch or too many celebrity girlfriends or any silly off-field stuff like that. The issue that the Yankees have going forward is his newfound inability to stay reasonably healthy for an extended period of time. Alex is getting old, and with age usually comes increased risk of injury. The Yankees have to find him an adequate caddy, someone who can start 40 games in his stead and allow Alex to stay well rested and hopefully healthy throughout the season. Even such caution may not be enough, but it might help the Yankees extract more value from their investment.

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18 Responses to ALDS Performance Highlights The A-Rod Problem Going Forward

  1. Eric Schultz says:
    October 12, 2011 at 5:11 pm

    The contract may not be as much of a terrible albatross going forward since (if I remember correctly) the guaranteed money was pretty front-loaded. Obviously he almost certainly won’t be worth the money he’ll be making over the duration of the contract, but he’ll “only” be making $20 million per year in the last two years of the contract. Health is key, and I don’t see reason to believe that he won’t be able to play 150 games again.

    Reply
  2. bg90027 says:
    October 12, 2011 at 6:36 pm

    That’s a good point about the contract being front loaded. Also, Posnanski’s numbers assume that A-Rod earns all of the HR incentives. To do that he’d have to average over 22 HR’s for the next 6 years which isn’t exactly a given (and would make him pretty valuable combined with playing 3B). He’s only 31 away from passing Willie Mays but there’s a lot of HR’s he’ll have to hit to pass Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron & Barry Bonds.

    Reply
  3. bornwithpinstripes says:
    October 12, 2011 at 7:36 pm

    who would you want to have at third base during post season..inge or arod….???? inge for me..

    Reply
    • Michael P. says:
      October 12, 2011 at 8:38 pm

      Cmon man Inge sucks. ARod gets hot during the playoffs he can carry us to a WS victory. Inge gets hot and…well nothing really happens. Might help you win one playoff game. Again I might be overly optimistic because I am debating even typing this ARod defense but…ahh crap he mostly sucks in the postseason. But if hes doing his thing the team moves on. If not, given his position in the lineup, it hurts badly

      Reply
  4. bornwithpinstripes says:
    October 12, 2011 at 9:07 pm

    michael…inge big hit early, scores a run…now hits a game tying homer..hugh pressure..that is what i meant..arod melted..a guy with hugh heart a little guy..ask leyland why he starts this kid in big spots..heart..

    Reply
  5. bornwithpinstripes says:
    October 12, 2011 at 9:27 pm

    who do you want up with a runner on third less than two out looking for contact a fly ball…in the playoffs..arod tex swish..or delmon young..hmmmm young gets it done..

    Reply
    • Michael P. says:
      October 13, 2011 at 2:46 pm

      How well did Young hit in the playoffs with the Twins? Small sample size combined with the recent sting of losing in the playoffs might be influencing your statement a bit.

      Reply
      • bornwithpinstripes says:
        October 13, 2011 at 8:18 pm

        you guys are missing the point..these guys are exactly what you say they are. not in arods class…until you need a fly ball. or big hit..he is arod.. ..look fielder, braun.cabrera, martinez, hamilton cruz..puljos ..that is where arod is in that class ..right? put 09 on the side he has killed us.any one of the delmon young and inge can have a big series..exactly my point..look how the names i mentioned have big hits that come with 4 5 hitters..that is why we are home and those boys are still playing

        Reply
  6. Steve S. says:
    October 13, 2011 at 7:10 am

    As I discussed elsewhere, I think the transition away from Alex has already begun, so I’m not overly concerned about this. As you stated he’ll need a caddy at 3B, and maybe after next season they could consider moving him to RF to replace Swisher and go sign a 3B. Wright and Polanco are FAs.

    Or even better, maybe in 2013 they make a bunch of long term fixes. Derek to 3B, Alex to RF and sign a Stephen Drew or trade for Han-Ram. Just a thought. But given the age on the left side of the infield it will need to be addressed at some point in the near future.

    Reply
    • Mike K says:
      October 13, 2011 at 9:33 am

      I think if Alex were to regress to such a point that he would simply retire. I don’t think he would go out there and embarrass himself. I just don’t see him hitting .240 with 13 homeruns and batting 7th.

      Reply
      • bornwithpinstripes says:
        October 13, 2011 at 8:21 pm

        are you saying he will leave 140mil on the table, so not to make a fool of himself…?hit could hit.40 he will come in and spit his seeds all over the place..then he would say my thumb hurts

        Reply
    • Michael P. says:
      October 13, 2011 at 2:45 pm

      ARod played a very good 3B when healthy. His injuries this year don’t concern me that much. Its not a previous injury coming back to haunt him.

      Reply
      • bornwithpinstripes says:
        October 13, 2011 at 8:26 pm

        MICHAEL he will be hurt every year and never will hit .300 or 30 homers again….i was a hugh arod fan before he came to the yanks just like i was a hugh giambi fan..arod is giambi..watch..the roids he took for all those years are paying him back.. see sizemore hafner and dozens of other guys who just stopped hitting and playing injury free.. arod is done.

        Reply

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