What Does Soriano’s Re-emergence Do For The Postseason Bullpen?

10 Responses to What Does Soriano’s Re-emergence Do For The Postseason Bullpen?

1. Professor Longnose says:

   September 15, 2011 at 1:15 pm

   Do you have the stats, or know where to get them, for Nate Silver’s “secret sauce” for postseason success? Are they available without having a subscription to Baseball Prospectus?

   A power pitching staff, as measured by normalized strikeout rate.
   A good closer, as measured by WXRL.
   A good defense, as measured by FRAA.

   I really would like to know where the Yankees rank in these.

   Reply
   • Larry Koestler says:

     September 15, 2011 at 4:57 pm

     Longnose,

     Without a BP subscription I’m having trouble tracking down the WXRL and FRAA numbers — I remember being able to access them last year; I guess they put them behind the paywall.

     Per Normalized Strikeout Rate, the Yankees’ .1974 is the best of the four AL playoff teams and second-best in the AL, after the White Sox.

     By Defensive Efficiency they’re 10th in the AL, and behind the three other playoff teams, although I’m not sure how reliable a metric DE is as I’ve never really used it and the gap between the “best” and “worst” is so small. By Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency (PADE) they also have the worst mark of the 4 AL playoff teams.

     Although as we know, there are a slew of problems with measuring defense. If you go by UZR, the Yankees appear to be one of the top teams in the AL. Eduardo Nunez aside, I’d say that’s a pretty accurate statement after watching this team play an entire season.

     I have a post tomorrow morning at 11am doing a comprehensive review of the 4 AL playoff teams’ bullpens, and while you probably already knew this because you read TYA, (spoiler alert) the Yankees’ has been the best in the AL this season. And it goes without saying that they have the best closer in the game.

     So, depending on what stats you want to use, it looks like the team is fairly strong in all three of Silver’s “secret sauce” categories. The one category I’m a bit suspect of is the power pitching one — that’s really carried by Sabathia, Colon, D-Rob and Mo; it’s not like Freddy and Nova are strikeout-machines.

     Reply
2. Rich in NJ says:

   September 15, 2011 at 1:41 pm

   I don’t think Logan splits v. LHB (.263/.324/.474/.797) enable him to be considered part of anything “dominant.”

   Reply
3. roadrider says:

   September 15, 2011 at 2:15 pm

   “At this point, I think the Yankees might be better off going to the bullpen starting with the 6th or 7th inning, no matter who (non-CC division) is starting that day.”

   I think this is an overly optimistic viewpoint. Aside from Rivera relief pitcher performance is often highly variable because sometimes winning or losing comes down to one or two critical batter-pitcher confrontations and even the best reliever is going to cough it up sometimes. I have no confidence in Logan and frankly not really that much confidence in Soriano, Wade or Ayala no matter how good their numbers are in any cherry-picked slice of games you can put together or even in their season-long statistics.

   None of those guys is dominating and all of them have shown to be capable of getting torched (and not always by premium hitters – like what happened to Wade last night).

   I’m not saying that the non-CC starters inspire much more confidence but neither do I agree that the Yankees are necessarily better off pre-emptively pulling them for the likes of the middle relief corps Those guys must and will be used in the post-season but to me they’re a necessary evil not a strength and nowhere near the level of Mendoza/Stanton/Nelson.

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   • Duh, Innings! says:

     September 15, 2011 at 3:08 pm

     The Yanks should go to the bullpen when the starter isn’t good enough to be in the game anymore. We have to see how each game plays out.

     Reply
4. Duh, Innings! says:

   September 15, 2011 at 2:24 pm

   ‘Say Sabathia pitches eight innings of one-run ball and Ayala pitches a scoreless ninth for a 7-1 Yankees Game 1 win.

   How would you manage the bullpen for Game 2?

   If Nova starts Game 2 on 10/1, he could start Game 5 if Sabathia can’t or go as long as he’s needed whenever during Game 5 on normal rest. The less pitches Nova throws in Game 2, the more pitches he could throw in Game 5.

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   • roadrider says:

     September 15, 2011 at 2:58 pm

     “The less pitches Nova throws in Game 2, the more pitches he could throw in Game 5.”

     And, assuming he’s pitching effectively, the more pitches Nova (or whomever) throws in Game 2 the more likely the Yankees are to win that game than they are by making a pre-emptive run to the bullpen. You have to win whatever game you’re playing that night before worrying about the other games. Suppose there is no Game 5? Suppose Game 5 turns out to be a blowout (in either direction)?

     Your reasoning suffers from the same fallacy as the that which says you should never use your closer in a tie game on the road which means you might lose a key game without using your best because you saved him for a situation that never came up (see 2003 WS Game 4 or Friday night’s game in Anaheim).

     In my opinion, having to rely on 3-4 pitchers per night, which is where getting only 5-7 innings out of your starter leaves you is nothing less than a search algorithm for finding the one guy who is having a bad enough night to cost you the game.

     Yes, I agree the Yankees with their less than stellar starting rotation will need a lot of bullpen support. But it should be used only as needed, not employed as a pre-emptive strategy because those guys (again excepting Rivera and Robertson) are not really that good.

     Reply
     • Duh, Innings! says:

       September 15, 2011 at 3:48 pm

       Since you want to put words in my mouth I never said:

       If the Yanks didn’t have to use Sori, D-Rob, or Mo in Game 1 and are up 5-0 (out of grand slam ties it range) through six in Game 2, yeah, I take out Nova in favor of Sori and D-Rob to start (as maybe Mo wouldn’t be needed again) after only 80 pitches because

       1. I want Nova to go as long as he can in Game 5 if he’s needed. What if Sabathia can’t start or make it through the second inning Game 5 and Nova threw 115 pitches where he labored most of the night in Game 2? That’s a weaker Nova going into the elimination game. Unlikely scenario, but you never know. If Sabathia doesn’t have it in Game 5 where he leaves the game after just two innings, Yanks down 5-0, I want Nova to come in right after him and go so long in Game 5 the Yanks don’t have to use anyone but Sori, Logan, D-Rob, and Mo after him if the offense mounts a comeback where they cut it to 5-4 through six where we don’t even think about bringing in Ayala, Wade, or Hughes for the 7th on. I want Nova to pitch 110-120 pitch seven inning ball in the extra innings if that’s what it takes/it comes to that. I’m a whole-series kind of armchair/fantasy manager haha.

       2. I think Sori and D-Rob with a possible dash of Logan are good enough to pitch 4 or runs or less ball in the final 3 frames with the Yanks up 5-0 through six, and the Yanks offense is good enough to score at least one more run after going up 5-0, too bad you don’t. Or am I putting words in your mouth?

       3. Day off after Game 2 and the possibility D-Rob and/or Mo won’t be needed for Game 3.

       This is just my “what I’d do” scenario based on what I’ve seen from the better part of the bullpen this year. Then again maybe I’d leave Nova in for longer than 80 pitches – I probably wouldn’t. The Yanks up 5-0 through six in Game 2 with Mo, D-Rob, and Sori not used in Game 1 and leaving in Nova after 110 pitches would be just as stupid as if I left in Granderson or Cano with the Yanks up 10-0 after six. All of you would crucify Girardi if Granderson or Cano got hurt with the Yanks up 10-0 after six. I’m wasting Nova for as many as two innings I may need him to pitch for Game 5 (110 pitches I leave him in to throw minus 80 pitches I could take him out after to conserve him for Game 5.)

       Garcia and Colon can’t start Game 5 and I don’t trust either of them, Hughes, or Burnett with the game in mopup, extra innings, or certainly the start. I want Nova to pitch as long as he can in Game 5 and hopefully he wouldn’t have to be used for it. That’s my primary reason for wanting to conserve Nova if the opportunity arises.

       My thinking on this is based on a pretty big “what ifs” (the opposing starters pitching like crap in Games 1 and 2, Sabathia sucking or unable to start in Game 5, Game 5 going 15 or more innings) and apply only if it actually happens. I don’t see any of these things happening.

       Reply
       • roadrider says:

         September 15, 2011 at 7:15 pm

         I put words in your mouth? Which ones? I copied that quote directly from your post and never claimed you said anything else.

         Your reply is even less convincing than your original argument.Why would you worry about Game 5 when you haven’t won Game 2 yet? Under your scenario the Yankees are up 1-0 in games and have a lead in Game 2 yet you want to yank Nova after only 80 pitches in order to save him for a long relief appearance in Game 5 (started by your #1 guy no less) which means you think the Yankees will lose Games 3 and 4 in addition to CC getting blown out in the early innings of Game 5.

         Well, all of that might happen but why burn the bullpen (and risk them blowing the lead in game that’s well in hand) when everything’s going your way? Sorry, but that would be dumb managing – even Joe Girardi isn’t that antsy (hell, even Sparky Anderson – Captain Hook himself – wouldn’t do it).

         And I have more news for you. CC is not getting yanked in the second inning of even an elimination game unless he’s hurt or is even more ineffective than you suggested and you do not plan your pitching strategy for the earlier games around those possibilities. In that situation you either ride your horse and hope he can right the ship or you work with what you have which might mean one of your starters on short rest or the guy you would have pitched the next day or your long man in the bullpen.

         If the dire situation you postulate for Game 5 did come about I think it would probably be Colon who would come in and that would be the best option in my opinion.

         Reply
5. The Captain says:

   September 15, 2011 at 3:00 pm

   Would you rather have Ayala over Noesi in the playoff ‘pen? Personally I like the flexibility that Noesi brings to the table over Ayala. And I can never get completely comfortable with Ayala on the mound, no matter the situation.

   Reply