BP’s Mike Fast has done some truly ground breaking research on the impact pitch framing skills can have on a ballclub’s ability to suppress runs. Mo addressed this in a previous post (check out his graphics) but I wanted to come at it from a different angle, namely the pending decisions on what to do with Russel Martin and Jesus Montero. Here’s the piece, which has been updated since Mo’s column. Check out the numbers on Martin and Posada:
| Catcher |
Called Pitches |
Total Runs |
R/120G |
2011 |
2010 |
2009 |
2008 |
2007 |
| Russell Martin |
42186 |
71 |
15 |
15 |
10 |
20 |
14 |
11 |
| Jorge Posada | 17942 | -50 | -25 | 0 | -23 | -11 | -5 | -10 |
The takeaway? Eliminating 2011 (since Jorge didn’t play Catcher) the difference between Russell Martin and Jorge Posada defensively was 105 runs over the course of 4 seasons from 07-10. If you accept Fast’s research (which is new and may be revised over time) then Posada would have needed to be a whopping 26.25 runs better than Martin with his bat each season just to break even on the defensive difference. Further, since Jorge caught less than half as many pitches, you could estimate that we could double his -50 rating if he played everyday like Martin. It says a lot about the impact an outstanding defensive Catcher can make, and could go a long way towards explaining why the Yankee pitching staff has outperformed expectations this year. Brian Cashman stated earlier this year that he believes the improved performance from the staff was in part due to Martin’s presence. This also helps explain why the Yanks were so adamant on making Jorge a DH.
These findings shouldn’t surprise us all that much. Think about the difference a strike call can make in a given AB. For example, lets say the batter has a 1-1 count with men on base. The difference between being ahead or behind in the count will change the pitch selection and how aggressive the batter will be with his swing. Falling behind an elite hitter can result in deciding to pitch around the batter altogether. If there’s 2 strikes on the batter, then the difference is between ending the at bat (and sometimes the inning) or allowing it to continue. Obviously, that’s huge. It’s axiomatic among pitchers that ‘the most important pitch in baseball is strike one’. Check out this table from BR for the 2011 AL season:
Split G BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ Batter Ahead 2210 .299 .464 .497 .961 10906 456 123 104 203 449 244 .302 167 Even Count 2210 .267 .273 .416 .689 11358 659 310 325 256 0 326 .292 88 Pitcher Ahead 2210 .211 .219 .314 .532 8261 537 305 96 168 0 261 .286 46
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The numbers bear this out, outcomes change dramatically when pitching ahead in the count as opposed to behind. Obviously Jorge is toast, but this could be tied in with some decisions that are pending for the club this off season. Like Posada, Jesus Montero is considered by most scouts to be a poor defensive Catcher. We don’t have any data on his pitch framing skills, but the scouting reports aren’t encouraging. His size and lack of flexibility alone could cause a pitcher to lose strike calls on the lower half of the strike zone. In situations where you need to get the low strike called to induce hitters to swing, that can be the difference between a walk or an inning-ending double play. For the ground ball pitcher who makes his living on those pitches, that can obviously be an enormous problem. The Yanks will have to decide whether or not to retain Russel Martin this off season in favor of starting Montero, or re-signing Martin (who is in his last year of arb) and pegging Jesus as strictly a DH for the immediate future while continuing to work on his glove. So far, Jesus has been as good as advertised with the bat. But he will either need to be much better defensively or an absolute monster hitter to make up the defensive gap between himself and Russel Martin.
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the answer to this question is so damn obvious.
What are the facts?
1)Russel martin is a damn good player. JUST JUST outside of elite. Not an auto out, will take a walk, hits some hrs, runs the bases well and is an OUTSTANDING defender by both eye test and cutting edge stats.
2) Jesus Montero can effing hit.
3) Martin is under team control.
4) the yankees traditional biggest bat and defintie biggest contract, while still a helluva ballplaer, is in his decline.
The answer is that Montero needs to asap learn 1b, lf, and emergency 3b.
Montero’s next 4 years are spent 90 games at DH, 30-35 games at catcher, 15 games at 1b, 10 games in lf, 3 games at 3b.
This opitimizes everyting and tides us over until one of sanchez, murphy, Romine emerges as this teams starting C going forward.
If Montero can be merely a terrible fielder in LF and at 1b he’ll be a huge cost controlled plus. The flexibility of carrying a hitter like him as your backup catcher can’t possibly be overestimated.
And if Murphy is someday on this team having Montero and Murphy as flexible catcher plus type guys will be a boon.
Long story short. There is no decision to be made here. Martin will be offered arb and will sign.
He’s probably the second best catcher in the division and is top 5 in the Al.
Montero in LF at Yankee stadium would be the biggest mistake, and comedy, of all time. His big, slow, nonexplosive frame would lead to a hilarious amount extra base hits and errors.
I think the Yankees can do both. Even if Montero “is a catcher” you don’t want him starting 120/130 games. Starting him 40/60 games (while using those days as DH for Tex, Cano, Jeter and Arod) resting Martin and then having martin catch 100/120 games is an ideal scenario. You have Cervilli waiting in AAA for a call up or as an emergency backup catcher for days Montero DH’s.
Long term Jesus is a first baseman and when the position opens up in five years, he’ll be 26.
Yeah, I think we all pretty much agree, Martin must stay. He seems to have really helped this team out. His salary is manageable, at least for next year. That gives the Yankees at least one more season to evaluate Montero as a catcher. If he shows he can cut it in a 40-60 game sample, then take another look at Martin after the ’12 season. If he can’t be an every day catcher, then prepare him for limited roles at other postions and have him DH when the regulars aren’t getting a half-day off.
The only thing that concerns me is that with ARod, Jeter and (to a lesser extent) Teixiera aging, they’ll need more time at DH. I could see a point during the ’13 &/or ’14 seasons, that between those 3 (and occasional rest for others), you’d be able to fill your DH ABs entirely. Hope Montero’s bat continues as it has so far (and he doesn’t become another Shane Spencer) and that he can at least fake it at another position.
I look at Montero’s swing and it’s clear he’s for real. We have to remember that he will only be like 25 when Texiera’s contract is up. Arod in my opinion will be able to play 3b for a long time. I think that we should be content with a bat like his who can play catcher 25-30 times. Think Mike Napoli but 21. Martinez etc. Such easy power and excellent contact skills. And his takes against boston were IMPRESSIVE. Very exciting.
Martin should be back (if he wants to be). Montero may or may not be able to cut it as a C but the Yankees need to find that out before rashly deciding to transition him to other positions that he may be just as poorly suited to play.
Montero might be a Mike Piazza or he might be an Edgar Martinez and there’s nothing wrong with either one of those outcomes. What I would prefer not to see is the team jerking him around to 3 or 4 different positions and screwing up his head so that it affects his hitting.
Posada was 35 in 2007, an age when many catchers are retired. It’s questionable whether or not it’s fair (or even useful) to generalize his defensive ability based on his performance at such advanced baseball ages.
Martin appears to be a far better hitter when he plays less games. So even granting that he can frame pitches well, it’s probably in the Yankees’ (and Martin’s) best interests to give him regular rest, especially since he has had a problem staying healthy in his career.
It also seems ridiculous (and counterproductive) to have Montero play more than one position in addition to catcher (apart from DH).
Rich, look at the number of pitches caught by both Posada and Martin. Martin played roughly two and a half times more often, so (as I said in the piece) if anything Posada’s numbers are way too low. We also know the Yanks cherry-picked when to use him, so if Jorge was your everyday Catcher and taking the bulk of the starts from guys like AJ Burnett, things could have really got ugly.
My point with this piece was to show that the spread between a good catcher and a bad one is bigger than even I thought, and those calling for Montero to catch everyday are begging for trouble. Jesus and Jorge have many of the same bad habits. They move too much, stab at the ball, and Montero’s crouch means he is going to be a passed ball machine, just like Jorge. They’re very similar in both offensive abilities and defensive liabilities.
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