Prospect validation

By On September 6, 2011 · 12 Comments · In General Musings

On Thursday, we were excited because it was Jesus Jueves. He didn’t get any hits that night, but Jesus Montero didn’t look overmatched and even got on base with an HBP. He also scored the game winning run on ‘s double to the right-center field gap in Fenway Park displaying some good base running instincts. He sat Friday night in the Bronx, but got his first Major League hit Saturday afternoon before adding two more on Sunday. Yesterday was the day where we saw that first hint of what Jesus Montero could become.

He drew a walk early in the game before adding two home runs in the 5th and 7th innings. That alone is special, but the way in which the homers were hit added something to them. We’ve all heard tales of Jesus Montero’s ridiculous opposite field power and that’s what was on display yesterday with those two home runs. He hit them deep into right field, just a seat shy of the bleachers each time. There it was, right in front of us. Before Montero even had a chance to struggle and make us doubt him and his abilities, he showed us exactly what we wanted to see. There are going to be times when Montero struggles in the next few days, weeks, or months but no matter what happens then, we’ll always look back to yesterday’s game and remember “He can do it, so it’s likely that he will do it in the future.”

(Moshe alluded to this on Twitter last night, so I’m piggybacking a bit here, but it reminds me of two specific game instances, both involving pitchers.)

In 2008, we saw toss up this gem in Boston. I’ll never forget that game–I was driving to my girlfriend’s after a softball game of my own and remembered thinking “Okay. This is it. This is the game that lets everyone know Joba is a starter.” It didn’t quite work out that way (grumblegrumble), but that was the signature moment of Joba’s starting career. We saw Chamberlain pitch like the ace that his stuff showed us he could become.

The same happened less than a year later when took the mound in Texas and threw eight scoreless innings. There it was. There was the ace in the making. There was the guy who’d lead the pitching staff into the next decade with his rotation mate Mr. Chamberlain.

Those games, those validation games, they serve as a bit of a double-edged sword for us. We can point to them and remember that these guys are great at baseball, remember that they have an enormous wealth of baseball talent. They will also frustrate us to no end when the player is stuck in an unbelievable slump. He’s done it before so why can’t he do it again? In those situations, we’ll react negatively when thinking back to the games in which our favorite young players flashed their brilliance. What we should try to do instead (easier said than done) is remember that most of the time, talent wins out and that there are likely to be many more validation games to come in the future.

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12 Responses to Prospect validation

  1. Sean P. says:
    September 6, 2011 at 11:25 am

    It’s kind of ironic that both Hughes and Joba seemingly peaked during those validation moments of yours, no?

    Reply
    • Matt Warden says:
      September 6, 2011 at 11:43 am

      It’s because you weren’t cheering them on hard enough, Sean. Thanks a lot.

      Reply
      • Sean P. says:
        September 6, 2011 at 11:52 am

        Haha yeah, good call. I just think that’s the other side of the coin with baseball prospects. We have such concrete visions of where Joba and Phil were going to end up, in terms of their career paths. This stuff is just so unpredictable sometimes.

        Reply
      • Matt Imbrogno says:
        September 6, 2011 at 12:08 pm

        He didn’t love this team enough, that’s why neither guy became what he should be.

        Reply
        • Joe G says:
          September 6, 2011 at 1:10 pm

          Although not as dominate as the game in Texas, I think Hughes peak point was in last years ALCS Game 3 vs. Minnesota. Granted that wasn’t a strong offense, but Hughes was very good in that game (7innings, 4 hits, 6 k’s, 0 runs) and finally looked like a legit playoff starter.

          Reply
  2. Moshe Mandel says:
    September 6, 2011 at 12:33 pm

    The Texas game I was thinking of for Hughes came much earlier, in 2007, when he had the no hitter and then got injured.

    Reply
    • Matt Imbrogno says:
      September 6, 2011 at 12:37 pm

      Oh, well, that works, too. I was watching that on Gameday up at school and remember it was Tex who hit a foul ball right before the dreaded “injury delay” went up. I just kept saying “Please let it be Tex, please let it be Tex, please let it be Tex…”

      Reply
    • Sean P. says:
      September 6, 2011 at 12:50 pm

      I was thinking of the same game. I remember thinking, “wow this is gonna be great having this guy for years to come”. Sigh.

      Reply
  3. Daniel says:
    September 6, 2011 at 12:37 pm

    I think Hughes’ moment was his second start, even with the injury:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TEX/TEX200705010.shtml

    Reply
  4. Marek says:
    September 6, 2011 at 12:40 pm

    You could add to your last sentence, “… especially for hitters.”

    Reply
  5. Scout says:
    September 6, 2011 at 2:36 pm

    Sorry, but I don’t buy the premise of “validation moments.” Nearly any decent prospect who reaches the majors will have his good games, but many never rise to the level that the organization and its fans hope he will.

    Validation occurs over time, usually a couple of seasons. That’s because major league success is a matter of adjustments, an ongoing process as opponents test and exploit weaknesses and young players are forced to respond. Teams will go to school on Montero. Validation lies at the other end of the process.

    Reply

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