Mo Link Dump

It’s our favorite time of the year, people: What’s Wrong With Mariano? Week! (WWWMW for short). Here are some links that focus on ‘s recent struggles:

Leading us off is Josh@IIATMS. He takes a look at both the numbers (see the quotes below) and run values using pitch location charts.

Yes, it is true that Mo has performed poorly in his past few appearances. Yes, it is true that he’s getting old and he doesn’t throw as hard as he once did. But any jump from these two facts to the paragraph above is much more narrative driven than reality driven. This year, Mo is at or above career averages in all of the following: FIP-, xFIP-, K%, BB%, tERA, SIERA. So in terms of overall performance, there is no reason to worry. (written before Thursday’s game)

Josh ends his piece with this tidbit about the pitch locations from Rivera:

It’s hard to say that his pitch location to lefties is any different in 2011 than 2010. This is reflected in both visualizations of his pitch locations and a regression model used to predict run value. According to the PITCHf/x data, there really isn’t anything worrisome at all. In terms of velocity and movement, the pitch is identical to 2010. In a near perfect career, Mo has had a few blips every once in a while, and this is just another one of those blips. It’s not like he just rolled out of bed a few days ago without the cutter working after it being effective the entire season.

In a similar vein, Mark Simon of ESPN wrote a heat map inclusive piece and also broke down the dates on which Rivera struggled. One interesting thing here is the chart on the right dictating GB% and BABIP against the cutter. This year, Mo’s getting a 45% GB rate on his cutter, which is low. Aside from the low GB%, there’s a high BABIP.

Here’s Jay Jaffe’s awesomely titled piece on Rivera from today.

Because his greatness is so routine, his saves often so nondescript, I haven’t had many opportunities to cover Rivera during my short time with access to the inside of the Yankee clubhouse, though I did get to ask him a question about closing out the game in which collected his 3,000th hit. There was more than a little frustration in his voice as he described his recent woes, something that most Yankee fans — or even reporters — aren’t used to hearing. The man says he feels healthy, however, and that he’s struggling with nothing more than the occasional lapse in location, and his manager agrees. The numbers suggest this is an isolated occurrence, not a harbinger of doom. Let’s hope that’s the case.

For obvious reasons, the bolded portions are the most interesting. No matter what, Mo’s been a cool, collected, and calm guy during interviews. He rarely sounds flustered or frustrated so hearing that is a bit of a shock. Still, I’ll trust both the numbers and Mo’s cold-bloodedness going forward.

Also from ESPN is this article by Jason McCallum. He details the park factors that led to ‘s leadoff double in Boston as well as Rivera’s numbers in save/non-save situations.

This quick study isn’t designed to provide evidence that it was acceptable for Rivera to struggle in these two outings. But it certainly provides evidence to combat the quick-trigger reaction to his recent issues as the beginning of his inevitable downfall.

Lastly on the Mo front, to show that it’s not all doom and gloom, there’s this fun article from Beyond the Box Score about who’s got the most Win Probability Added in World Series history. For pitchers, Mo is third all time in WS WPA behind Art Nehf (WHO?!) and Yankee great Red Ruffing.

Here is the batter’s chart.

The coolest thing from that piece?

Babe Ruth ranks fifth all time among hitters—and fifteenth all time among pitchers. In fact, he has the highest single-game WPA for any pitcher in history. The dude was just good.