Recently I ran a post demonstrating that the best teams in baseball the past few seasons have separated themselves from the pack after the All-Star break. I ran that post because I quietly feel that the 2011 Yankees may be poised to out run their competition in July and August. With that in mind, I wanted to zero in on the players who would have to step up to make a strong second half run possible.
5.
Robbie is in the middle of an excellent season. He’s batting .296/.342/.521 entering the All-Star break, which translates to a .373 wOBA. This is down a bit from his career best performance in 2010, when his wOBA was .389, but it remains an excellent performance. What is lost amid this excellent performance is that Cano has typically been a better hitter in the second half of the season. ESPN reports that from 2008-2010 Robbie hit .297/.339/.468 before the break, but .314/.358/.517 after the break. Oddly enough, he actually hit worse after the break in 2010, but for his career his numbers have been better in the second half in every other season he’s played. If that pattern holds true this season then Cano may be in a position to carry the team in the warmer months.
4.
Most analysts are enamored of Tex’s impressive counting stats, and with good reason. The dude has 25 home runs. However, his wOBA is only .378, compared to .387 for his career. This is entirely because his OBP is just .352, which would be the lowest OBP Tex has posted since he was a rookie. Those numbers are fine for ordinary players, but Tex has the potential to be one of the best switch hitters of all time and is expected to do better.
Fortunately for Yankee fans, he too is a second half performer. In fact, from 2008-2010 Tex has been a completely different player after the All-Star break. During that time he has hit a good but not great .267/.370/.494 before the break, but a phenomenal .310/.406/.584 after the break. If Tex can do that again in 2011 the Yankees will score a lot of runs.
3.
Since the beginning of the season the common wisdom has been that the Yankees would be in the market to trade for a starter. Analysts felt this way because it was assumed that at least one of , Freddy Garciaand Bartolo Colon would fail as a starter (or a long reliever, which is how Colon started the season). Instead, so far on the season the Yankees have hit the inside straight. All three have succeeded to varying degrees. None has been more successful than Colon, who has flirted with being the Yankees’ best starter on a rate basis at times this season.
The real measure of success for Colon will be his durability down the stretch. At 39 years of age, the Yankees have no incentive to limit Colon all that much. Who knows if he will ever be as good as he was in the first half again. But, if he can continue to be as dominant as he has been as the trade deadline approaches then the Yankees may not need to part ways with prospects to get a starter from a thin market. Instead, the potential one-two punch of and Colon is potentially as good as any in baseball, and would be stronger than the front line the Yankees took into the 2009 post season. All that rests on Bartolo’s surgically repaired right shoulder. Despite that, he’s still not as important as this guy …
2. CC Sabathia
What can I say about the beast that I haven’t said already? As it stands, my man crush on CC is approaching the legendary proportions of my man crush on . Still, let’s wax poetic about how awesome he’s been. He’s on pace to give the Yankees about 267 innings. His FIP of 2.50 would be the lowest of his career if he continues at this pace through the rest of the season. He’s been worth 4.8 fWAR on the season, which trails only in all of baseball (take THAT )! Did I mention that he was worth 5.1 fWAR in ALL of 2010? That’s how good CC has been in 2011. He’s almost matched his entire output from his excellent 2010 campaign BEFORE THE ALL-STAR BREAK!
Now that I’ve regained my breath, I’ll share the best part. CC has also been a second half performer from 2008 to 2010. Over that period his ERA was 3.54 before the break, and 2.50 after the break. His WHIP was 1.18 before the break during that stretch and 1.12 after the break. In order for CC to have the best year of his career (and consider this a contract year, because that’s exactly what it is) he just has to continue his post All-Star break pace from his past three seasons. His second half ERA and WHIP during that stretch are both better than what he’s already posted during this monster season. If CC can do that he’ll position himself to carry the Yankee pitching staff into the post season, and earn himself an additional fifty or sixty million dollars in the process. Win-win!
1. Alex Rodriguez
He’s not on the field and he’s still the most important player! I’m serious, by the way. A-Rod has a .374 wOBA on the season. Even an offense as strong as the Yankees’ will miss that production for four to six weeks. In order to succeed after the All-Star break the Yankees will have to survive not only without one of their best hitters, but without a player who without question is still capable of turning it on and carrying the team for a month or two. That won’t just require Eduardo Nunez to continue the hot-hitting he showed after went on the DL. It will also require Tex and Cano to do what they’ve typically done in the second half, while and avoid turning back into automatic outs. That’s a lot to ask of any team, but the Bombers will have to respond to compete in the AL East.
The most interesting twist in all this is that Alex is due to come back in mid August or so, at full strength. By all accounts he’s having a necessary but otherwise minor surgery. If he can burst out of the gate when he returns to the team the way he did at the start of the season, he may provide precisely the spark the team needs to compete with the Red Sox down the stretch, particularly if the rest of the squad was holding its own in his absence.
For my part, I’m feeling optimistic. The 2011 Yankees have gotten off to a stronger start than I thought they would. Why begin doubting them now?
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I agree with you about Cano although I’d like him to be a bit more selective at the plate; Tex may have a strong second half, but he”s been really streaky this year; Colon has been great and has already exceeded my expectations despite whatever he does in the second half; CC has been great, except he can’t beat the RS. And he’s going to need to do that at some point. A-Rod hopefully comes back at full strength by mid-late August. In the meantime, hopefully Nunez (maybe Chavez) or perhaps a trade acquisition, steps up. I have a feeling Martin steps up big (offensively) in the seceond half.
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Mike Jaggers-Radolf Reply:
July 13th, 2011 at 3:28 pm
Tex and Cano are both streaky players, but I feel optimistic about each one entering the second half.
Colon I’m less certain about. He remains an unknown quantity. I’d come to expect only great things from him before that Rays game put the fear of god back into me.
My money would be on Tex or Cano carrying the offense before Martin. I like Martin, but I feel we’ve seen his ceiling.
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Rich Reply:
July 13th, 2011 at 5:33 pm
Agree with you about Colon—I fear the bubble has burst!
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If Tex can get some BABIP regression on that .218 BABIP he may be in for a huge second half.
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He got it last year.
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The Mets have just traded K-Rod to the Brewers:
http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/amazin_trade_rodriguez_named_brewers_ewEiyxfipLUWqZtUObyoBMs
If Soriano opts out after this year because he’s a stubborn mule who thinks he can still close, the Yankees should go after K-Rod and get him to set up for Mo for one year. This ensures the Yankees have a top-flight set up man for 2012, a top-flight closer for 2013, or both for 2013.
If Soriano doesn’t opt out after this year, the Yankees should still go for K-Rod because they’ll have $22.35M off the books letting go of Posada ($13.1M cleared), Igawa ($4M), Marte ($3.75M after a $250K buyout), and Chavez ($1.5M.) Igawa and Marte haven’t thrown and won’t throw a pitch for the Yankees this year and I doubt Chavez, who has barely played for the Yankees this year, will come back. K-Rod is making $11.5M this year right? Ok, I say offer him $14M for 2012 so he makes $17.5M total for 2012 ($14M salary + $3.5M buyout the Brewers will definitely exercise) then $15.6M per year 2013-??? (a record salary for a closer since Mo is making a record $15.5M per year this year and next right?) and K-Rod will take it. If Mo wants to return for 2013 only (my guess is if he wants to come back after 2012, it’ll be for one year only), re-sign him. I could see him taking a discount.
My logic behind going after K-Rod is who knows what the Yankees rotation after Sabathia and Burnett will be after this year and who knows if Burnett will keep pitching like he has this year beyond it? I would love to see Hughes be at least a #3 starter and Nova either a #4 or solid #5, but who knows? Either or both could be shit next year. Are any of you excited about any of the free agent starting pitchers for this offseason? I’m not. I say have a 2012 bullpen of Rivera/K-Rod/Soriano/Robertson/Logan/Feliciano/re-signed Ayala to allow the Yankees to simply re-sign Colon for a year cheap for a Sabathia/Burnett/Hughes/Nova/Colon rotation to at least start 2012 then you see if/when you need a starter. You have the bullpen to go with that rotation to start the season.
Also who is the closer after Mo if Mo retires after next year? You cannot assume Rivera will come back after next year. The only sure thing about Mo is his contract is up after next year. I do not trust Soriano, Chamberlain, or Robertson, although I like Chamberlain and Robertson and think they have the mental makeup to be closers unlike Soriano who scares me even with his stellar 2010.
I say prepare for life after Mo sooner than later. Keep dreaming if you think Soriano, Robertson, or Chamberlain will be as good as 2011 Mo or probably 2012 Mo. They won’t. K-Rod is better than all of them.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 13th, 2011 at 10:31 pm
K-Rod is having career worsts across the board, and his stiff has declined at a steady rate for several years. There is no way the Yankees are going to sign him to a multiple year deal, and they shouldn’t.
Rodriguez is basically David Robertson at this point. Both are high K, high BB guys, except Robertson has better stuff, is younger, and is much much cheaper.
What you are proposing is a bullpen that consists of Soriano making 10+ million, K-rod making 14 million, and Mariano making 14+ million. That is insane at the best. You would be paying Soriano or K-rod one to be a 10+ million dollar middle reliever.
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[...] here to see the original: Five Yankees to watch after the All-Star break | New York Yankees … AKPC_IDS += "25908,"; AKPC_IDS += [...]
I expect Cano will once again have a better second half than first. I think moving into the 4 hole replacing Alex may help with that, with the extra responsibility in the lineup he should be more focused consistently.
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