After this season, the free agent crop is not too impressive when it comes to starting pitching:
Starting Pitchers
CWS
STL *
KC
Aaron Cook COL *
KC
CHC *
OAK
ARI *
KC
NYY
LAD *
SD
OAK
WAS
CWS
ATL
LAA
LAD
CHC
PIT
COL
WAS
NYY
PIT *
PHI *
DET
NYM
LAA
NYY (may opt out)
Carlos Silva NYY
FLA
STL *
BOS
WAS
ARI
C.J. Wilson TEX
Chris Young NYM
I’m going to assume that CC Sabathia opts out of his deal with the Yankees and re-negotiates with them for a better deal. I’d be all for that. Still, even with Sabathia, the potential Yankee rotation in 2012 might not be so great. Let’s assume Sabathia re-signs. The rotation would probably lineup like this:
1. Sabathia
2. A.J. Burnett
3.
4.
5. ??
That’s an okay rotation; it’s got an ace, but some questions after that. Burnett is great at times, but is anything but consistent. Hughes, well, I think the jury is still out. He needs to prove that the first half of 2010 wasn’t fluky for me to have some more faith in him again. Nova’s a good back end starter, but I’d prefer to see him bumped back to the fifth spot (though it doesn’t make too much difference). As for the internal fifth starter candidates, I’m not sure which guys will step up. They could, of course, in the next few months and in Spring Training, but it’s a bit dangerous to count on that. It would be nice to see another starter added to the team, no?
Like I said, the free agent crop of starters is not good and I doubt we’ll see the Yankees trade for anything more than a rental during this July. I think they’ll at least peruse the pitching market come December and I think C.J. Wilson will be a definite target.
In public and private, I’ve been more or less against the Yankees signing Wilson. We’ve heard whispers that he’ll want a Burnett type deal, and that is hardly desirable. He’s had pretty limited success, too. But, during a G-Mail chat with Larry last night, I pulled up Wilson’s page on FanGraphs and started to reconsider.
This year, Wilson has cut more than a full walk off of his BB/9 rate from last year while maintaining solid strikeout and home run rates. He’s also still got a high 40′s groundball rate and that’s always helpful in a ballpark like the one in Arlington or Yankee Stadium.
There are downsides, like his age and his limited success. The age, Wilson will be 31 in November, isn’t horrible, but it’s not desirable either. He still may find a long term deal, but I don’t know if many teams will be willing to go five years for him.
The limited success is a bit of a double edged sword for Wilson. On the one edge, he’s still kind of “unknown.” He’s had success in a rotation for just a year and a half now, so can we be sure that he’ll do it for longer? But at the same time, it makes him a little more attractive because he doesn’t have as many miles on his arms as most 31 year old pitchers do.
After looking more closely at the numbers and contemplating the lack of innings his arm has racked up, I’m finding Wilson just a bit more attractive. That may be, though, because of how bare the market will be for pitching. By no means am I saying the Yankees should go all in for him and give him a five year contract. However, they should definitely be in on him. I could swallow a four year deal, but I would aim for a three year deal, even if it meant more money. I’d much rather the Yankees overpay than over commit.
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Assuming the Yankees wrap up the Sabathia extension without a hassle, the C.J. Wilson sweepstakes could be one of the more intriguing storylines of the offseason, as the Yankees and Rangers get set to once again square off for perhaps the best available free agent pitcher on the market.
I’m not really sure where I’d draw the line on Wilson, and the age is certainly a concern when thinking long-term deal, but I’d love for the Yankees to go hard after Wilson. At 3.2 fWAR, he’s currently the third-most valuable lefty in the AL (9th-best K/9), and you can never have too many good lefties in a Yankee rotation.
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And least we not forget as Larry just mentioned C.J. Wilson is a lefty and a lefty in Yankee stadium is never a bad thing. Three years would be ideal for a contract but 4 wouldn’t be out of the question. It still would only leave him 35 at the end of the contract.
Don’t forget there still may be a possibility of Erik Bedard at the trade deadline from Seattle if he’s healthy and Seattle decides to move him. And of course mending the bad blood between GM’s due to last years Lee deal falling though. Which I might add may have been a blessing in disguise.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 13th, 2011 at 10:26 pm
3 years for Wilson? I imagine Texas is going to start their offer at 5 years, and they may be willing to go up to 6 seasons. He is their ace, and after missing out on Lee last year they won’t let him go without a fight.
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Wouldn’t be shocked if Bartolo Colon re-ups with the Yanks for another year. He’s past the point of getting a two year deal, so if Colon wants familiarity he’ll resettle here or back with the Angels. Colon has pitched too well to date to leave him out of the calculus for next season.
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To stay on point with the thread, Cj Wilson will get what the market bears. I think Wilson stays in Texas if Ryan comes close to the Yankees offer.
Still a second half of baseball to be played and you never know what might go down via trade.
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The last season and a half have been quite impressive for CJ Wilson to say the least, however, I am cautious especially when it comes with starting pitchers without much a track record over 30. With CJ Wilson I could easily see him getting a five year deal for 70-80 million dollars considering some of the other teams that will have cash to spend such as the Red Sox. Also, while the performance has been nothing but superior the stuff that backs Wilson is not nearly as impressive with his fastball averaging a tick below 91. In addition, this has been the lowest walk rate that he has ever posted by more than .5 BB/9. This seems more like an aberration rather than a trend that will regress in the following years. While Wilson has shown a capability to be an effective starter that does not diminish the fact that is this is most likely a career year for him. Put with the fact that there are other teams high revenue teams such as the Red Sox and the Rangers competing for his services it would be wise to pass on paying Wilson a contract based on a career year which may run as high as 5 years 80 million dollars.
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I say just re-sign Colon for 2012 only for at least $1.8M (double his 2011 salary) plus incentives based on number of starts and innings pitched and go with Sabathia/Burnett/Hughes/Nova/Colon to start 2012.
If they signed K-Rod moreoever convinced him to be the setup man for Mo for one year/2012 only – I think he’d be cool with that cuz he idolizes Mo – their bullpen would be the best in MLB and they wouldn’t need to sign anyone for the rotation with it. Mo/K-Rod/D-Rob/Sori/Logan/Feliciano/Ayala re-signed. Boras wouldn’t care if K-Rod wasn’t the closer as long as he’s paid like one.
I’d rather sign K-Rod than any of the free agent starters listed in this article. My guess is Buerhle remains with the Chi-Sox so he could play his entire career with them and Wilson signs with an NL team so he has to deal with only one AL team in the postseason – see Cliff Lee signing with Philly and Halladay locking himself up with Philly after being traded there.
If had to choose between Buerhle, Wilson, and Pettitte, I’d choose Pettitte cuz he’d want just a year. Who would you trust with Game 2 of the ALDS out of the three if Sabathia got roughed up in a Game 1 loss? I’d want Pettitte.
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Larry Koestler Reply:
July 13th, 2011 at 3:54 pm
If Pettitte didn’t want to play this season, what makes you think he’d want to come back next season? Additionally, unless he’s been working out regularly, for as much as I love Andy, it seems unlikely that a rusty Pettitte could come back and still compete after a year off.
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I agree CJ is the best pitcher available in the FA market. As a devout Ranger fan, I am hoping he never taints himself by becoming a Yankee (see Kenny Rogers).
That said, I think that the Yankees would be CRAZY not to pursue him. Yes, he is new to being a successful starter. But he keeps himself in shape like nobody this side of Roy Halladay. Since he is such a fitness nut I am not very worried that he will break down any time soon if the Rangers have to pay through the nose for him.
I can only hope that he stays here in Texas because he loves the direction of the team and has bonded with his teammates. Because we can’t outspend you guys.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
July 14th, 2011 at 1:44 am
You may not be able to “outspend” us in pure dollars, but you may be willing to go further in years. Do you think the Rangers are considering going 6-7 years? Because I think the Yankees would be hesitant to give CC another 6-7 years, and commit 6-7 years to Wilson as well.
I do find it insulting to say he would “taint himself” if he signed with the Yankees. The team spends money, I don’t see why that automatically has to generate such over the top hate. I guess it’s just me.
I wouldn’t say CC tainted himself if he opted out and signed with the Rangers.
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There are 2 kinds of people in the world. Those of you who love the Yankees and those of us who hate them.
If my Rangers have the same sort of success over the next 100 years that the Yankees have had in the past century, I expect the same sort of love-hate from non Rangers fans.
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