One issue that seems to have plagued the Yankees in 2011 is a penchant for making outs on the bases. It seems like every couple of days, the Yankees have a game where they make 2 or more outs on the basepaths, giving away outs and taking away at-bats from their excellent lineup. While you do want to see certain Yankees be aggressive and take the extra base where they can, the high quality of the Yankees’ hitters means that a high level of success is required to make aggressive baserunning a statistically sound strategy. Let’s take a look at some basic statistics to see if the perception of a baserunning malaise is accurate.
Stolen Bases: The Yankees are 9th in the majors in stolen bases with 62, but they are also tied for first in times caught stealing, with 29. Overall, they have a success rate of 68%, which is 25th in baseball and is below the “break-even” point. That means that they are making enough outs by attempting to steal to nullify the benefit of the instances in which they are successful. By contrast, last year’s club stole at a 77% rate. The real culprits in this area have been and , with 59% and 58% success rates respectively. These two have accounted for 41 of the team’s 91 attempts, so their struggles are the driving factor behind a good base-stealing team in 2010 becoming a poor one in 2011. Considering that both players have posted much higher success rates in the past, I would expect these numbers to improve as the season continues.
Pickoffs: Yankees’ baserunners have been picked off 11 times, tying them for 8th in baseball. They were picked off 19 times all of last season, but are on a 25 pickoff pace thus far in 2011. Brett Gardner is once again to blame in this category, as his 4 pickoffs ties him for 5th in all of baseball (note: all four of his pickoffs came on attempted steals and are included in the caught stealing data). Eduardo Nunez and both have been picked off twice as well.
Outs on Bases: These are outs made in the course of baserunning, such as while trying to stretch a hit, advance on a flyball, or getting doubled off on a lineout. The Yankees are in the middle of the pack with 26 OOB, which ties them for 11th in MLB. Considering that the Yankees have more baserunners than most teams, that seems fairly solid. That said, it is interesting to note that in terms of taking the extra base on a hit, (XBT%), the Yankees are 28th at 36%. This suggests to me that they are not being incredibly aggressive in terms of trying to take an extra base, yet they still have a reasonably high number of outs on the bases, which may point to poor baserunning. Just as a point of comparison, the 2010 Yankees only made 48 outs on the bases (currently on pace for 59) despite taking the extra base at a 38% clip.
As for the culprits in this category, and are tied for the team lead with 4 OOB. Both only take the extra base about 32% of the time, so they are giving themselves up on the bases without recovering those bases with well-timed aggression. and Eduardo Nunez are in a similar position with 3 OOB each and fairly low XBT rates, while has 3 OOB to go with his incredibly laughable 6% XBT. Jorge really is one of the worst baserunners of all time.
Another notable negative is that although he has only been thrown out on the bases twice, Brett Gardner has only taken the extra base 30% of the time, which is well below his 47% career rate and places him 11th on the Yankees (7th among regulars). It seems that he really has lost any baserunning instincts that he had coming into 2011. On a more positive note, has not been thrown out on the bases to this point, takes the extra base at a rate above league average (46% compared to 41% average), and Curtis Granderson has a whopping 67% XBT.
Conclusion: Looking at all of these measures points to a general weakness for the Yankees on the basepaths. They have been one of the least aggressive clubs in baseball in terms of taking the extra base, yet have made plenty of outs while running the bases. Furthermore, they have been fairly aggressive in the stolen base department, but have not been successful enough to justify that aggression. In particular, Brett Gardner is having a very poor year in this department, something that is not in line with his career performance or his skill set. If the Yankees could get him straightened out, it would go a long way towards correcting some of the more unsightly elements of this problem.
Photo: AP, via Daylife.com
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Ah what can ya do really? Baserunning is the one thing an entire team can’t correct. All you can hope for is as many of the biggest culprits in bad baserunning as possible improve. ‘Thing is, it’s hard to resist going for second when you’re caught up in the moment. Perhaps Mitch Kelliher is waving too many guys around first – why no mention of him? Isn’t it his job to tell a guy go or not go for second?
[...] reading here: Yankees Struggling On The Basepaths | New York Yankees blog … AKPC_IDS += "22817,"; AKPC_IDS += [...]
Watching Granderson last night it seemed like he tired legs (maybe all those triples ;)). Gardner has a real bad habit of looking back at home when he steals, a cardinal sin. Another thing about Gardner is that he really needs to come into the bag feet first. The fielders are getting way too comfortable at the bag, sometimes all but blocking the bag as a catcher would do. I’ve seen Gardner get thrown out this year that had he not committed the above sins would have had the bag stolen, for sure. Obviously the coaches are seeing this as well, making me wonder if Gardner has a foot or ankle issue. As for Cano’s baserunning, maybe he finally realized that he’s really quite slow for a middle infielder.
Moshe, for the issues that you’ve stated, as well as the ones that I’ve expanded on the question begs to be asked. The Yankees need someone that understands the subtleties of baserunning. Maybe Ricky Henderson? I think that it’s clear that teams have picked-up when Gardner is going to run and would certainly benefit from some first class coaching. Hell, bring Joe Morgan in. If you saw him in his prime, well, “Nobody” understood playing baseball better than “Lil Joe”.
Good suggestion, Kevin. I guess Brett’s instincts are tongue-tied, stultified by fear of doing it wrong. The right expert mentor would likely provide him new cues, which he could focus on positively.
With the Yankee lineup, there’s no need to push the envelope on the basepaths. Chances are there’s a good hitter coming up who has the ability to get you home, so you don’t want to deprive him of that opportunity. But the success rates of Gardner/Grandy are just inexcusable. I know they’re trying to teach Gardy to be more aggressive and there’s a learning curve there, but if he can’t get his SB% back up to his career avg then at some point he should just stop running.
[...] any case, as I was writing this I was reading through my favorite Yankees blogs, and I found that Moshe at The Yankee Analysts had already covered the topic. It’s a fantastically comprehensive view of the Yankees base [...]
[...] any case, as I was writing this I was reading through my favorite Yankees blogs, and I found that Moshe at The Yankee Analysts had already covered the topic. It’s a fantastically comprehensive view of the Yankees base [...]
Many, if not most of Gardner’s “caught stealing” last year were actually pick-offs. He hardly ever got thrown out at 2nd base. He really is much, much worse this year.
Any idea where the Yankees rank in situational hitting? Moving runners over- scoring men from 2nd and 0 outs, runners from 3rd with less than 2 outs, etc? Because I think the strength in the baserunning #s is when combined with how bad of a situational hitting team they prove to be. The combination adds to their dependence on the HR and makes it tougher to win close games…any #s you can throw together?
The Yankees are a veteran team, filled with players who have been running the bases for years, and with good success, as evidenced by their numbers as recently as last year. It seems unlikely they’ve collectively forgotten how to run the bases. This could be random noise, similar to a team that has an off year hitting with RISP. Eventually, these things even out.
The Gardner situation, however, is interesting. He’s always been a high-percentage base stealer, in the minors and the majors. He certainly appears to be running as fast as ever. His problems seemed to have started late last year when he was being questioned for when he would attempt to steal. Perhaps by questioning him on when he runs in the count, he’s now over thinking a skill he once took for granted. Regarding Granderson, he is now 30, and while his overall game is much better, he might simply be a fraction of a step slower. It may be time to reduce his SB attempts.
Overall, very interesting article since it confirms what visually many of us have questioned. I wonder if the poor base running is why the Yankees are a few wins under their Pythagorean expectation?