In my nearly two years of blogging, I don’t think there is a player I’ve written about more than Jesus Montero. Joba Chamberlain and Derek Jeter probably come close, and may pass him, but writing about Montero has been more enjoyable than writing about Chamberlain’s mostly improper development and/or Derek Jeter’s decline. Some of what I’m going to say is repetitious, but I think these things are worth repeating, even if I said them yesterday.
The first thing we should remember is that Jesus Montero is most definitely tradeable. Every prospect is and despite his awesome bat and ridiculous upside, he is no exception. The return for him just needs to be higher. He’s not a “part of a package” guy. He’s not a “use him to get a slight rotation upgrade” guy. He’s a “get a player that’s going to impact the team in a big way immediately and in the future” guy. Those guys don’t become available often and they probably won’t be during this trade season.
There was a comment yesterday on my post about trades that was the real inspiration for this post:
Adam B Reply:
May 31st, 2011 at 12:14 pmYea its not ideal, but to me its the million dollar question… He is no use to us if he cant catch 120 games a year.
I responded that I completely disagree. If Jesus Montero can be an even Posada-level catcher, he will be insanely valuable for the Yankees during his team-controlled years. If he’s not, well, he won’t be as valuable. That doesn’t mean, however, that he will be completely without value to the team. While he’ll never win Gold Gloves back there, it seems that Montero is at least competent enough to sit back there and take up space. Even if he doesnt’ catch full time, he can still do the job occasionally while DHing. Yeah, it would suck if a guy as young as he is ends up relegated to DH, but there’s still value in that. While DHs aren’t incredibly hard to find or incredibly expensive, having a guy who will cost as relatively little as Montero will in his first few years can help the Yankees a lot. Instead of giving money to a veteran player to DH, the Yankees can give Montero the league minimum or just above it. That way, they can “spread the wealth” and use those resources elsewhere.
There’s also the production element to that argument. While it’s not a guarantee–because nothing is in baseball–it’s a good bet that Montero’s bat will turn out more than fine in the Majors. If he catches and hits like he’s supposed to, he’ll be the paragon of value. His value obviously takes a hit if he doesn’t catch, but I’m confident in his ability to produce at the level of your average DH and if he can do that while being much cheaper than the average DH, then there’s no way he’s “of no use” to the Yankees.
Jesus Montero is incredibly valuable in two big ways for the Yankees: He can be used to land an impact player or he can be held on to and become a key bat for the Bronx Bombers going forward. I think it’s much more likely that the latter happens…at least, that’s what I hope.
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The Yankees should keep Montero and try to get a #3 starter without trading him.
Sabathia/Burnett/Trade Acquisition/Colon/Garcia
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:24 pm
they make put noesi in place of nova
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Nova + Cervelli + minor league prospect for Chad Billingsley. Then bring up Montero as back-up catcher/DH
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Matt Imbrogno Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 12:03 pm
That’s going to have to be one hell of a minor league prospect.
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David, Jr. Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:12 pm
It would take Betances. Hard to say whether it would be worth it. That is what Cashman is paid for, to make calls like that. To me, it is too much, having read that Kevin Towers said that his ceiling is like Felix.
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:30 pm
I think the Yankees should leave the top prospect pitchers alone and trade for Derek Lowe who would not cost them Betances, Banuelos, Brackman, or even Nova. The Braves want the remainder of Lowe’s contract including $15M due to him next year off the books and name me a better free agent starting pitcher as good as or better than Lowe besides Mark Buerhle who I am resigned to believe will remain with the Chi-Sox, and why not remain one? Buerhle is royalty there from winning it all in ’05, settled, and in the nice position to be the rare player who plays for only one team his entire career.
Sabathia/Burnett/Lowe/Colon/Garcia
I would go to war with that front four in the postseason, and Garcia is a suitable emergency starter/mopup man.
Nova further develops in AAA and battles for the fifth starter slot in spring training.
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:36 pm
lowe ran from the AL, he would more often be shelled then pitch well. no future in this guy along with garcia colon.to much to gamble on older players.. we have been blessed so far with colon and garcia..rather go through the pains grooming a kid then to have four guys 35 and older
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 2:10 pm
Lowe ran from the AL? Try more like he felt dissed by the Red Sox and left them to take the big I Just Won The World Series payday from L.A. he’s still getting from the Braves.
I know his 14-12, 5.42 ERA 2004 seems like he ran from the AL, but I doubt it. Boston wasn’t offering him the contract LA gave him.
AL career: 3.83 ERA, 1.298 WHIP, 85 saves
NL career: 3.88 ERA, 1.300 WHIP, 9.2 H/9 vs. 8.9 in the AL
Granted he was only a starter for three years in the AL 2002-04 including a 21-8, 2.58 ERA 2002, but he has produced almost identical ERA and WHIP in both leagues.
Also he gave up only 1083 hits in 1090 career IP in the AL.
He’s 3-4, 4.03 ERA, 58 SO in 67 IP so far this year, with two hard-luck losses where he could’ve been 5-2.
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:53 pm
lowes e.r.a. is 405 in the NL add between .50 to 1 more run to that if he comes to the AL east
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 2:27 pm
4.03 ERA according to his page on baseball-reference.com. 58 SO in 67 IP. WHIP a little above his career average.
That “add one run if he was in the AL East” is not an exact science.
Denny Neagle came from the NL in the middle of 2000 and helped the Yankees win it all.
Javier Vasquez for his troubles in Yankee pinstripes including his 2004 ALCS Game 7 stinkjob pitched well enough to help the Yankees get one win away from going to the 2004 World Series. Alot of people forget he was ace-like in the first half of 2004. Wasn’t he an All-Star that year on his first half? I forgot.
El Duque came from a bullshit baseball league called the Cuban League with only four teams thus three opponents and helped the Yankees win three World Series including win Game 4 of the 1998 ALCS with the Yankees down 1-2 in the series to Cleveland.
Jeff Weaver came over from the Tigers and helped the Yankees get into the 2003 World Series. Do not tell me 2003 Jeff Weaver > 2011 Derek Lowe.
Granted most of these guys weren’t the aces, #2s, or even the #3s of any of the WS winning Yankee staffs, but they helped the Yankees win it all to varying degrees.
Lowe wouldn’t be brought in to be the ace or #2, he’d be the solid veteran workhorse warrior winner #3 brought in to help the Yankees get into the playoffs, give the bullpen relief with innings, and be a more than adequate postseason starter. I wouldn’t start him in an elimination game, but I’d feel comfortable starting him in Game 2 between Burnett and Sabathia (or vice versa if the Yankees wanted CC to start Games 1, 4, and 7 not just 3 and 7.)
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 2:48 pm
Correction:
I meant to say most of these guys helped the Yankees win it all, at least get to the World Series, or come very close to helping them get to the WS, to varying degrees. I know full well they didn’t win the WS with Vasquez or Weaver.
bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 2:57 pm
hello innings, if it was five years ago o.k., by the way it is lowes birthday today. june 1 1973.. some pitchers just rather pitch in the NL, it is weaker, no DH, matt holiday came to the AL stunk, adam dunn. .182 ba. i know it is not an absolute.but to trade away anyone, except posada is not worth it..i would not trade for billingby either unless he cam real cheap..he comes from the weakest hitting division in all baseball. i do feel there is enough to go by that says for more times than not let the NL guys stay in the NL..adrian is one of those exceptions, redsox stole him.. is he signed for 2012? if so what does he make if you know.
bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 3:00 pm
jeff weaver ..he came to the yanks and melted..how do you figure
bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:25 pm
dodgers need bats they have pitchers in the loop
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:31 pm
if we try to get a pitcher from them i rather go for the lefty..but they won’t trade him
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Duh, Innings! Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 2:44 pm
My logic behind trading for Lowe is he wouldn’t cost the Yankees a top prospect.
Also, by not giving up top prospects for Lowe, the Yankees could still trade some for a top-flight starter.
The “Lowe would do worse in the AL” argument is a fallacious one because you’d have to say the same about Chad Billingsley and Hideki (sp?) Kuroda who are career NL starters. Lowe once won 21 and 17 games as a starter in the AL and was the first pitcher ever or since whoever to save over 30 games one year then win 20 or more games the next, so he’s not exactly chopped liver. ‘Dude eats innings. Can we say that about Colon, Garcia, and Nova the Yankees current 3/4/5 starters yet?
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 3:05 pm
with respect..,those past years stats are just that..never would i take kuroda…igawa waiting to happen in the AL.. the innings eater stuff rings hollow if you have a five plus era
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I respect your opinion Matt, I just think that Montero is more valuable in a trade, assuming they can get fair value for him, if he can’t catch full time. I just think there are too many older players on this team for him to be DHing.
however, please don’t misunderstand my point. His bat is good enough where it’ll play at any position and I wish they had a place to put him if he cant catch. Actually I would almost argue that 1B is a better spot for him so the wear and tear of catching don’t take away from his bat later in the season (Posey, Mauer). But 1B is obviously filled for the next 6 years and AROD will probably need to move DH eventually… Where does that leave Montero?
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:29 pm
posada was average at best so was piazza..but i agree that position hurts offensive production.tough on the hands
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Adam B Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:32 pm
and the knees… Obviously Posey’s was an accident but collisions at the plate are a by product of playign the position… Again if they can get fair value for him, I think he is more valuable on the trade market… Just my opinion.
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:45 pm
i don’t know how they stay on their knees everyday..tough job
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Ralph Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:57 pm
Understand what you are saying but I think it is a stretch to say they have no place for him. The DH spot is wide open right now and while the Yankees have several aging positions players, they all fall into two categories right now: 1) do not need to move to dh for at least a couple of years or 2) have no business getting DH AB’s. Going around the infield Russ Martin is young and good defensively, Tex is still in his prime and I see no reason to move him anytime soon, Cano falls in same category, Jeter falls into the no business at DH, especially not at the expense of a superior hitter, when the day comes he can’t play short he should ride out his contract on the bench. Now Arod is a different story, he is the obvious DH candidate, but he is still capable of manning third for atleast 2012 & 2013. The OFers are all fine to remain ther for the length of their respective contracts. So why not let Montero DH, catch some games and learn some 1b? The yanks have room for that bat and should use it.
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Having watched Montero a lot during spring training in Tampa I feel/know that his bat is special. The swing is so fluid and smooth and the ball just comes off his bat different than most people. Miguel Cabrera is a fair comparison in the sense of how the ball comes off their bats.
I’ve always envisioned the Yankees running a platoon of sorts with the catcher position with Romine catching 4-5 days a week and Montero DH’ing, spot starting at 1st, and catching.
I was beyond thrilled last year when the Mariners chose Smoak over Jesus. I can’t wait to watch his career unfold.
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Chaz Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:35 pm
And if you’re not convinced that he’ll be special – compare his birth date to Mo’s
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Adam B Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:39 pm
he may very well be a special player, but where do the yankees play him if he can’t catch is the issue I bring up…
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:50 pm
they have to give him a shot at it.. we put up with posada for a few years there is no way he can be worse than what we seen with jorge in 2010 2009.
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Matt Imbrogno Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 2:50 pm
He can DH, he can catch once or twice a week, he can spell Tex at first (btw, he’ll be just 27 when Tex’s contract is up so that’s something to consider). If his bat plays like it should, they’ll find somewhere to play him.
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 3:09 pm
i like that
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Dismortologist Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 3:54 pm
what I don’t get is why aren’t the Yanks giving him more time at 1b. It would increase his trade value especially to teams who need a bat & aren’t crazy about his catching ability. maybe like the Dodgers.
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 1:48 pm
Chaz , the sound off his bat is different also.. pleasure to watch him hit
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[...] Repeating myself on Montero | New York Yankees blog, Yankees blog … AKPC_IDS += "19709,"; AKPC_IDS += [...]
innings rays are down three zip in the eighth. white sox came back on now lead 4 3
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Thank goodness that I don’t live in the fantasy world where 30+ HR, 100+ RBI guys aren’t valuable as DHs. Unless the return is one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball on the right side of 30, you keep him. I’d rather lose on this five years right now because the Yanks kept him and he didn’t pan out than face him as one of the best hitters in baseball.
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bornwithpinstripes Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 4:14 pm
correct
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Phil C Reply:
June 1st, 2011 at 5:38 pm
I agree with Jay on this. Has anyone seen how poorly many of the DHs are performing this year? Sorry, Jorge. Also, let’s first find out if Montero can catch at MLB level before we write him off. I suspect that the readers of this blog are not the only ones who find his defense suspect, so if promoted and shows he can’t catch but will hit to expectations, Montero will still have trade value if the NYY have to give the DH spot to A-Rod in the future.
One last point, WOW! Montero surely generates a lot of traffic here.
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At this point there is no one available I would trade Montero for. Felix isn’t going anywhere, Josh Johnson has injured his shoulder again, Kershaw isn’t going anywhere, and the A’s aren’t trading Brett Anderson. The only position player I would consider trading him for would be Justin Upton, and I would only do that if they wanted to take him straight up for Upton. I still believe Upton has as much potential in his bat as anyone in the majors, he is somewhat sloppy in the field, but he has the athleticism to play any of the positions out there.
If he hits Montero should be able to slide into somewhere in the 3-5 spots and stay there for 10 years at any position, there is always value in that.
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The Yanks might consider shipping Montero to the Astros for Brett Meyers. This way, the Yanks will have a legit #3 pitcher, while the Astros will get some much needed power. This is the most realistic trade, if one takes place.
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Matt Imbrogno Reply:
June 3rd, 2011 at 8:09 am
If the Yankees did that trade, I’d want Cashman fired immediately.
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