Cano hitting one of five Yankee solo home runs in an April 16, 2009, game against the Indians (photo c/o The New York Times)
The Cleveland Indians have been in first place in the AL Central since their sixth game of the season, despite the fact that neither their offense (.324 team wOBA, which is pretty good in the current depressed 2011 hitting environment, but nothing extraordinary) or pitching staff (a middling 3.89 team ERA, 7th-best in the AL) appears to be particularly imposing on paper — save for , who has come out of nowhere (.301 wOBA in 2010) to post an 9th-best-in-the-American-League .391 wOBA.
Given that most prognosticators pegged the Indians for a 4th- or 5th-place finish in 2011, the Tribe’s early season run has caught many by surprise, though it appears that the team might finally be coming back down to earth. After finishing April with a mighty 18-8 record, the Indians played near-.500 ball in May (14-12) before hitting the skids in June (2-6).
Staff “ace” appears to have finally reached his potential, having pitched to a fine 3.18 ERA/3.12 FIP/3.52 xFIP worth 2.0 fWAR, but nothing about the sinkerballing Masterson’s profile screams “head for the hills.” He doesn’t strike a ton of guys out (6.26 K/9), doesn’t have an overly impressive BB/9 (2.77) and gives up his share of hits on ball in play (.314 BABIP), though that’s not terribly surprising for a groundball pitcher like Masterson (55% GB%). While the GB% is nice, it’s actually lower than last season’s and isn’t quite the rate at which I think we’ve come to expect from the creme de la creme of sinkerballers, which I would unscientifically define as around 60%. The righty Masterson still has a pretty pronounced platoon split — though he’s been death on righties (.194 AVG, 2.71 FIP, zero home runs allowed in 35 innings), he still hasn’t quite mastered lefties, who hit him at a .309 clip and who he’s recorded a 3.46 FIP against).
In a way, Masterson’s profile reminds me a lot of , only with slightly fewer ground balls (Wang had a career 60% GB%) and more strikeouts. Wang also had more trouble with lefties as well, but was equally adept at limiting the long ball, which Masterson has done quite well this year (0.34 HR/9; 2nd-lowest in the American League). In addition to a decent sinker (3.6 runs above average), the other primary reason for Masterson’s success has been his complementary weapon, a strong slider (3.7 runs above average, 8th in the AL). At Wang’s peak in 2007, his sinker was worth 13 runs above average and his slider was 10.4 runs above average.
Of course, after spending all of this time on Masterson, it turns out the Yankees won’t even be seeing him this weekend.
The remainder of the Indians’ rotation really isn’t terribly exciting:
| K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | ERA | FIP | xFIP | fWAR | |
| Justin Masterson | 6.26 | 2.77 | 0.31 | 3.18 | 3.12 | 3.52 | 2.0 |
| 5.21 | 2.60 | 0.55 | 4.52 | 3.48 | 3.84 | 1.2 | |
| 5.10 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 3.71 | 4.15 | 3.80 | 0.8 | |
| 5.66 | 2.50 | 1.20 | 5.33 | 4.43 | 3.76 | 0.6 | |
| 6.11 | 4.18 | 0.96 | 4.18 | 4.58 | 4.29 | 0.1 |
| wFB | wSL | wCT | wCB | wCH | |
| Justin Masterson | 3.6 | 3.7 | 0.2 | ||
| Carlos Carrasco | -3.5 | -0.3 | 1.3 | 5.3 | |
| Josh Tomlin | 1.1 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 0.2 |
| Fausto Carmona | -0.5 | -1.5 | 2.2 | ||
| Mitch Talbot | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -1.5 |
While this Indians pitching staff seems to do a reasonable-enough job limiting walks, they also don’t strike anyone out. Carmona’s getting his groundballs (58% GB%), but outside of his changeup (2.2 runs above average) he really isn’t fooling anyone.
The starter who probably has the best overall repertoire is — shudder –good old righthanded junkballer Josh Tomlin and his blazingly fast 87mph fastball, who for all intents and purposes drove me insane after he shut the Yankees down in his Major League debut last July. Carlos Carrasco has a pretty decent changeup, which doesn’t necessarily bode well for the Yankees, who are at -5.0 runs above average against the change, but fortunately he doesn’t seem to be overwhelmingly good at everything else. Again, Tomlin’s cutter and curve, which are both above-average pitchers for him as well as pitch types the Yankees have also struggled against this season (-3.1 and -5.0 runs above average, respectively), would appear to make him the Cleveland pitcher with the best chance of shutting the Yankees down this weekend.
So how then have the Indians managed to remain in first place with what appears to be one of the more mediocre pitching staffs in the league? It certainly helps to have a strong bullpen that ranks 2nd in the AL in ERA (3.25) and 5th in FIP (3.60), even if they have perhaps been a tad lucky (4.11 xFIP). Vinnie Pestano in particular is having a scary-good season, boasting a K/9 of 11.57 and a triple slash of 1.29/2.27/2.63. Given the Yankees’ difficulty with hitting teams’ bullpens all season-long, expect Pestano to shut the Bombers down. Fortunately, the Yankees can counter with what has been to date the finest relief corps in the league.
In tonight’s kick off of the Yankees’ second four-gamer of the season at home (it would’ve been their third had one of the games against the Twins not been rained out), the Bombers will trot out (4.50 ERA/4.29 FIP/4.69 xFIP) to face Fausto Carmona. Carmona saw the Yankees twice last season and was OK the first time out (4 ER in 6 innings) and got absolutely bombed the second time around (7 runs in just 2.2 innings). Let’s hope for something like the latter outing this time around.
The Saturday afternoon game (this is, believe it or not, the Yankees’ first Saturday afternoon at 1pm start since April 16 against the Rangers) has Mitch Talbot going against (3.39 ERA/3.48 FIP/2.99 xFIP). Not to dump on the guy, but Mitch Talbot truly is the definition of a mediocre pitchers, and the Yankees simply have to beat up on the Indians’ weakest starter in this game.
The Sunday matinee features Freddy Garcia (3.77 ERA/4.75 FIP/4.16 xFIP) against Certified Yankee-Killer Josh Tomlin. Tomlin of course pitched that gem against the Yankees in his MLB debut last July, and his Game Score of 69 in that outing is still a career-high (he did match it in a start against the Reds back in May).
And in the Monday evening finale, the Yankees will face Carlos Carrasco, who will be opposed by (4.37/4.60/4.06). PITCHER THE YANKEES HAVE NEVER SEEN ALERT. Between Carrasco having been the Indians’ second-best starter this season and him being new to the Yankees, this game has disaster written all over it.
After another ridiculously disappointing series against the Red Sox, the Yankees really need to right the ship against the Indians. Not that Cleveland is a pushover team by any stretch, but they’ve pretty clearly been playing over their heads for much of the season, and the Bombers have to get better pitching performances and more timely hitting to help reestablish their credibility at home. The Yankees used to feel invincible at Yankee Stadium, and they’ve already lost 16 home games after losing 29 all of last season. I know they’ve played a ton at home, but they still need to be better than that. Following the historical embarrassment of two straight three-game sweeps by Boston at home, the Yankees simply have to win three of four this weekend.
Play today, win today. Das it.
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The Yankees opened the season 17-10. Since then they’re 16-17.
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A base hit for Cano with bases loaded! Nice start.
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RBI hit for my man, Jorge!
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Cervelli just threw the ball into centerfield on the warmup.
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Brawl! Get it on.
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Granderson one homer behind Bautista.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:03 pm
Thank god people stopped giving him fastballs!
I love to see Granderson not getting into a long slumps with the power, but I still think we need to see him put together another long stretch before we’ll know what’s real.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:05 pm
I think they proved they aren’t by stepping up. Did you see how much bigger Acta is than girardi? He was al up in Acta’s face!
EDIT: I hate doing this on a phone! This goes below this about being meek.
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I love Girardi right there! For anyone who doesn’t think Joe cares that was real heat!
Carmona is a punk, that is weak baseball!
I just hope no brawls break out! We need to wn games, last thing we need is Teixeira, Martin, Arod, Cano, Etc… get an injury vs this team fighting, and miss a month or something.
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Professor Longnose Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:01 pm
I agree. It’s good to see fire from Girardi and the team. And I don’t really want a brawl. I just don’t want the Yankees to be meek.
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It will be interesting to see how Nova handles this. I don’t usually like young guys throwing at people, they usually don’t know how to do it safley, and they tend not to have the control for it. This is a situation though, where at some point, someone is going to get hit back in this series.
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Professor Longnose Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:03 pm
Move some feet.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:23 pm
This isn’t a situation where you want to make batters uncomfortable so you can pitch better. This is a situation where you need to hit someone so Carmon’s teammates police him. If someone gets hit because you lost your temper, because you gave up a HR, they will get mad at you. Then you won’t see it again hopefully.
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Jorge doing his figurines proud.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:26 pm
He knows he can be cut now haha. Figurine night, and Jeter is 10 away from 3,000.
What a blast! Bleachers in center! Not sure I’ve seen that in this stadium yet.
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Are the YES text polls moronic?
A) Yes
B) Green
C) .357
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That was a real shot by Rodriguez. I hope his power bat is coming alive.
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T.O. Chr know he was on that major run to start the year, begining bac in spring training even, but then he injured that oblique and slumped. He played through that injury, maybe he is finally at the point where that injury is healed. I heard him say whil Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:30 pm
Well you
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:32 pm
Gotta love phone posting… I have no idea what even happened with this haha.
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Professor Longnose Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:33 pm
It looks weird, but I got the message.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:33 pm
What I was trying to reference was that while he was dealing with the oblique he was also having hip issues. Maybe he is finally at the point where both the hip, and the oblique feel good.
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Typical 5th inning jam by Nova. Let’s see if he can work out of it.
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All right. Nice job by Nova.
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Hughes makes his first rehab start Tuesday, which begs a question. Hughes is ready, looks healthy, velocity is back and is pitching well again.
Whose spot in the rotation does he take, Garcia or Nova?
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Professor Longnose Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:50 pm
Tough question. Where do you come down on it?
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Steve S. Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:58 pm
I think it’s clearly Nova, assuming he and Garcia are both pitching equally well. Nova either becomes the long man (most likely) or gets sent down to AAA.
You’ll lose Garcia if you put him on waivers and he’s of no use in the pen. Nova has options.
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Professor Longnose Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 9:02 pm
My guess is that they will separate in effectiveness before Hughes is ready.
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smurfy Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 9:51 pm
Why would Garcia be no use in the pen? seems to me he could give an inning or several.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 10:14 pm
He’s not going to give you any real value in the pen. All he would be is a guy you’d bring in when getting blown out, or blowing someone else out. He doesn’t throw hard, he’s a career starter so he will take forever to warmup, and because of that he will only be able to come in to start innings.
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HIP HIP…..ugh. Same old Jorge.
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Professor Longnose Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 8:51 pm
I think it’s a new old Jorge. 10 years ago, he probably makes that. But he’s really slowed down and he hasn’t recalibrated his expectations.
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[...] The Yankee Analysts [...]
A solo HR is no catastrophe. Nova is doing well.
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7 innings, 2 runs for Nova.
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Wooohoo! 3 runs in the 7th inning? I wonder how long it’s been since they did that.
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The last time the Yankees scored more than 1 run in the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning combined was on May 24th, when they scored 2 in the 8th and 2 in the 9th to beat Toronto.
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Jorge with the bases loaded on his figurine night.
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[...] is the original post: Game Thread and Series Preview | Yankees vs. Indians I: Rick … AKPC_IDS += "21205,"; AKPC_IDS += [...]
Boy, Whelan looks horrible.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
June 10th, 2011 at 10:18 pm
His big worry has always been control, but he has the stuff to do something out of the pen. I wouldn’t judge him to much off of this though, I bet he was really nervous. It’s always something new to make your big league debut, but he’s been in the minors working towards this forever.
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Steve S. Reply:
June 11th, 2011 at 7:01 am
Mike Dunn walked the ballpark his first outing, and now he’s one of the best LOOGYs around.
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