‘s strong start to the 2011 season has given Yankee fans some confidence in the short-term security of the catcher position. In the early going, Martin has posted a .983 OPS and a .435 WOBA, and though his walk rate is down from previous years, his power production more resembles the all-star Russell Martin of 2007 rather than the mediocre worn-down version of the past few seasons. While Martin is unlikely to continue this impressive offensive production, he is looking more and more like he could catch for the Yankees for at least a few years. Martin’s defense looks quite impressive after years of watching catch, which further increases his value to the Yankees.
Martin’s strong start has led to much speculation about the future of Jesus Montero in the Yankee organization. After a sub-par spring, Montero is off to a strong start in AAA, batting .414/.407/.534. Despite the lack of walks and the uncharacteristically few homers so far, Montero is further demonstrating that his bat is major league ready, even if his defense may not be there yet (or ever?). Given the Yankees’ need for another good starter, many people have discussed dealing Montero for a front-line starter while his value is high (and Martin seems to be a better bet to be the catcher of the future). Others would consider switching Montero to a less demanding defensive position, bringing him up to the majors, and letting him mash in the Bronx for the next 15 years. To be honest, I am not totally sure where I fall on the trade Montero spectrum, but I want to address another possibility to improve the Yankee rotation that does not involve Montero: trading Austin Romine.
Romine, because of a down year in 2010 and the presence of Jesus Montero in AAA, is repeating AA. He is off to a great start so far, putting up a .298/.400/.489 line through 12 games, with 2 homers (both in the same game). The stat I am most impressed with however is Romine’s k:bb ratio, as he has walked 8 times and struck out just 6 times. Romine’s plate discipline has for years been a weakness, and if this disciplined approach is sustainable, he could shoot up the prospect charts. Romine has long played second fiddle to Montero as a prospect, as he isn’t in the same class offensively (though he’s a better defender). However, a strong season in AA/AAA (and no second-half swoon as in 2010) for Romine could boost his value to the point where he would be a valuable trade chip.
Given the Yankees’ rotation needs, Romine could prove to be a useful trade piece. He will likely not be enough to acquire a top-tier starter straight up, but could be a useful piece of a larger package. To determine Romine’s trade value, I decided to look at BA’s All-Time Top 100 List for top-100 catching prospects who were dealt in recent years for pitching. Romine has ranked in the lowest quintile of the top 100 for the past 2 years, #86 in 2009 and #98 in 2010. With a strong season in 2011 at the higher levels, he could move up this list. To get a better idea of Romine’s trade value, here are some recently-traded catching prospects, and who they were traded for:
Travis d’Arnaud (peaked at #36 in 2011): D’Arnaud was a solid young catching prospect in the Phillies organization with strong defensive skills and a decent bat. He was on his way to cracking the top 100 in 2009 when he was dealt along with Michael Taylor (unranked in 2009, but #29 in 2010), and (unranked in 2009, #25 in 2010) to the Blue Jays for , who was and probably still is the game’s best pitcher.
(peaked at #60, 99 on 2009 list): Although Flowers was not a top 100 prospect prior to the 2008 season, he eventually reached the list in 2009. In 2008, Flowers was traded along with infielder (#93 in 2007) and a few minor prospects for and . While Vazquez was not a frontline starter like he was in 2009 (or the absolute garbage he was in 2010), he was a solid starter with good peripherals in a tough park for pitchers, and had some decent value.
(peaked at #58 in 2009): Ramos was a guy who always seemed a little overrated to me. He was a strong defensive catcher, but never posted flashy offensive numbers at any level. Ramos, then on the Twins was dealt straight up for Nationals closer , a deal that at the time was largely viewed as favorable to Washington (though the outcome may not in fact have worked out that way). The Nationals were trying to open the closer spot for rookie phenom (a Yankee draftee out of high school). Here the Twins did not appear at the time to get great value for a top-100 catcher, though Capps has worked out well for them so far.
(peaked at #66 in 2009): Marson was highly regarded coming into the 2009 season, though he did not perform as well as he did in 2008. Nonetheless, Marson was an important piece in the deal for , along with #52 prospect , #69 prospect , and Jason Knapp (who would be ranked #64 in 2010). 4 top-100 caliber prospects for Lee was considered a high but fair price (given Lee’s dominance), though Marson, Donald, and Carrasco were not performing at the same level as they did in 2008, so their value should probably be discounted somewhat. Regardless, Marson was an important piece in getting one of the best starters in the game as a rental.
(peaked at #10 in 2010): Santana is an interesting case, because he was not a top 100 prospect prior to the season he was dealt he was considered a promising prospect whose stock was on the rise. Santana was traded by the Dodgers along with intriguing bullpen arm Jonathan Meloan to the Indians for , a solid player, but nonetheless the Dodgers were ripped for this move (and rightfully so).
(peaked at #18 in 2006): You might not believe it given his recent performance, but Salty was once considered a top-tier catching prospect for the Braves. After being ranked #36 prior to the 2007 season (in which he got off to a strong start in AA and was rushed to the majors), Salty was the centerpiece of a trade for Mark Texeira (and ) from the Rangers, along with (a back-end top 100 guy in 2008), (#65 in 2007), (#90 in 2007), and Beau Jones. Teixeira was one of the top hitters in the game at the time, and had significant value. I imagine the Braves heavily regret this trade, however, given the success of Feliz, Andrus, and Harrison, and the fact that the acquisition did not lead to a World Series win.
From looking at these examples (I probably missed a few), a picture of Romine’s potential value emerges somewhat. To me, of the prospects on this list, Romine is most similar to D’Arnaud. It is clear that he does not presently have the value to be dealt for a Lee or Halladay type on his own, but he could be an important piece in a package including a few other top 100ish guys (say Dellin Betances, Andrew Brackman, Slade Heathcott, or a few others) for a top tier starter.
As legitimate aces are hard to acquire, and it does not look at present that one will be available, it might be necessary to examine whether Romine could bring in a mid-rotation starter on his own. The Tyler Flowers/Javier Vazquez trade may prove instructive in this instance. The Flowers-Vazquez deal gave the Braves a decent mid-rotation caliber starter while only surrendering Flowers and another borderline top-100 player. It is in a trade such as this one that Romine might have the most value, as there will likely be some mid-rotation starters available at the trade deadline (who exactly, I will not even try to predict).
Obviously, Romine’s value will depend somewhat on his performance in 2011. If he is able to sustain his strong start, his stock will rise and the Yankees may be able to trade him straight-up for a mid-rotation guy, or use him in more of a headlining spot in a trade for a front-line starter. Of course, if he stumbles again, his value could go down, and he may not be a significant trade piece on his own.
Given Martin and Montero’s strong starts, there may not be much room for Romine in the Yankee organization. As such, the Yankees should definitely explore trade options for him at and before the deadline, to see if dealing Romine could strengthen their rotation for the stretch run and perhaps the future. However, if Martin comes back to earth and the Yankees are still not feeling bullish on Montero’s defense, then this situation would likely prevent Romine from being dealt. With all these possibilities, I will definitely be following Austin’s performance throughout the season.
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To me, the emergence of Russel Martin puts everyone not named Gary Sanchez in the mix to be dealt in the right deal, and I’ve always viewed Romine as either a chip or an upgrade over Cervelli. That said, there’s no rush to deal him. He could spend this year in AA/AAA and be put on the 40 man next year. No rush at all.
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Eric Schultz Reply:
April 23rd, 2011 at 8:02 pm
I agree. I think the “rush” to deal Romine could be more that the team has present needs in the rotation that might need to be met in order to strengthen its chances of winning the World Series. That’s not to say that Romine should be dealt for any old pitcher, but rather, that there might be need to make a deal.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
April 23rd, 2011 at 9:18 pm
You said everything I was coming here to say Steve, good job as usual being in in-sync and a step ahead.
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There are really only 2 or 3 players that I would be interested in trading prospects for.
1. Grady Sizemore (I believe hs is back) to replace Gardner
2. Bryce Harper–huge future to replace Swisher in 2013.
3. Gio Gonzales
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Eric Schultz Reply:
April 23rd, 2011 at 9:09 pm
I imagine Harper is not going anywhere, but the other 2 could be acquired (albeit, at a high price). Who would you deal for Sizemore or Gonzales?
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Brads Reply:
April 23rd, 2011 at 9:20 pm
Good question. I’m not big at making up a list of names and assuming the other team would lust over a group of lower level prospects.
But…
For Gio–Montero or Romine, Betances, Brackman, Heathcoat
For Sizemore–Gardner, Noesi, Nova, and Nunez
I can’t imagine what it would take to get Harper, but I suspect $10M in a swiss bank account with the name of Nats GM would be a start…then kidnapping his child, and then offering Kei Igawa.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
April 23rd, 2011 at 10:30 pm
Montero and Romine aren’t on the same level in prospect terms, you can build a package around Montero, Romine would simply be a nice piece in a package around another player, big difference between the two. I really doubt the A’s would send Gio for a Romine, they have Kurt Suzuki and I think they would be buying into Montero’s power not his position.
I just can’t bring myself to commit to trading Montero for Gonzalez, the combination of upside in Heathcott, Betances, and Montero just seems like a lot for a pitcher who honestly still has a lot of developing to do. I don’t see Gio walking in and being our number 2 behind CC, he would be better off as the 3 or 4 depending on where Hughes gets back to. He would certainly develop past Burnett and Hughes but he is far from being a finished product. I just don’t put Gio in the level of someone like Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw or Felix Hernandez, which is where I would need to put any pitcher to trade Montero.
I would probably do that Sizemore trade but I would want either Nova or Noesi back, since Sizemore doesn’t have many more years under team control he needs to be re-signed, and we need 1 of them for the rotation.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
April 23rd, 2011 at 9:28 pm
If I may cut in and add my 2 cents Eric, I was actually thinking about what I would trade for Sizemore today. I had a hard time commiting on what was appropriate because of his talent, and more importantly his injury history and I ended up settling on either Gardner and Betances, or Gardner, Brackman and Noesi.
I just can’t commit any bigger deal for someone who has proven to have a hard time staying on the field, maybe transitioning to LF might help keep him safer though.
Gio Gonzalez is someone who I have watched every start this year, one because he is on my fantasy team, and two because he is a prime target for a Yankee trade. I don’t think he has ace upside (if he tightens his control he might) but he could be a very good number 2 for a while, my only problem is he walks too many batters, but the stuff is nasty. 91-94 on a fastball, an 85 MPH change, and a tight curve at 77. The change is the pitch he has come the farthest on since coming up and probably has a lot of his future potential behind it. All that said I have no idea what to trade for him, the A’s likely start with Montero and I would be hesitant because of the lack of ace upside. He seems to be very similar in stuff and potential to Banuelos so for that reason alone it would be hard to trade in Manny and a package for a pitcher Manny could be as good or better than. The A’s don’t get screwed on trades much and I would be warry of them.
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Brads Reply:
April 23rd, 2011 at 9:53 pm
Gio is 24 years old. He has upside.
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T.O. Chris Reply:
April 23rd, 2011 at 10:24 pm
I guess you didn’t understand….
Not being an ace isn’t “not having upside”, Phil Hughes is never going to be an ace but he has upside. I even specifically pointed out that I think he can be a great number 2 for years, I just don’t neccesarily see that quality in him that says he will be a CC Sabathia like horse for 7-10 years.
Just because someone is 24 doesn’t mean they will one day become an ace, or that they even have that potential. I made the room saying he has a chance to become an ace, which I directly linked with his changeup development and further progression of said change. As I said in my original post he could become an ace level pitcher one day, but with his control and love of the curve over his change I think he is going to settle into that very quality number 2 guy, who could be a number 1 on teams but isn’t an “ace” in the true defenition of the word.
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Brads Reply:
April 24th, 2011 at 12:03 pm
No, I understand what you are saying, and I don’t think we are that far apart. I just think he is going to learn to pitch with his change even more and have a #2+or #1-capability. I believe his walks will come down as he matures.
If people tag Manny Baneulos with Ace potential, I have to apply that possibility to Gio.
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