Yankees vs. Tigers: 2011 Opening Series Preview

The New York Yankees kick off their 2011 season against the Detroit Tigers this afternoon in the Bronx at 1pm.

Mike previewed the Tigers back at the beginning of March, ultimately concluding that he didn’t feel that the 2011 team would be much better than its 2010 incarnation. I’d say that’s a fairly accurate assessment, as the offense hasn’t really undergone any significant upgrades — though ‘s bat does give Detroit a rather formidable 3-4-5 — while the starting rotation continues to remain a fairly fairly large question mark after and .

The mere fact that is slated to be the team’s fifth starter is enough to send Yankee fans into delirious fits of amusement, but who knows, maybe Comerica and Coke were made for each other? The bullpen received an upgrade in the form of , while will likely continue to be an effective closer while also infuriating opponents with his ridiculous clucking after recording each and every out.

In today’s opener we have two of the best pitchers in baseball squaring off in (CAIRO-projected 3.54 ERA/3.68 FIP; all numbers in this post are CAIRO-projected) vs. (3.79 ERA/3.41 FIP). Verlander was worth 6.3 fWAR last season — the second-best tally among AL hurlers — though incredibly this total was actually down from 2009′s insane 8.3 fWAR. Verlander faced the Yankees twice last year, throwing 6.2 innings of shutout ball last May during what was probably the Yankees’ ugliest stretch of the first half, and tossing a less Verlander-esque five innings of three-run ball on August 17.

Sabathia was of course his usual badass self in 2010, delivering a 5.1 fWAR season, though this was actually his lowest fWAR total in the last five years. Sabathia got crushed by the Tigers in that same May game that Verlander cruised, coughing up six runs in six innings; and then got revenge in the August 17 game, chucking 7 innings of two-run ball.

In the FOX Saturday Afternoon Game of Death, (4.66 ERA/4.50 FIP) takes on former Marlin teammate (4.73 ERA/4.54 FIP), who I thought the Yankees should’ve taken a flier on back in December. Through a quirk of the schedule, Burnett didn’t see the Tigers last season, so perhaps that will work in his favor, although I imagine it could just as easily backfire. Penny of course didn’t see the Yankees last year, having spent all nine of his 2010 starts with St. Louis, but amusingly enough the Yankees were the last American League team he faced, as the Bombers’ eight-run outburst over four innings on August 21, 2009, resulted in Boston severing ties with Penny.

In the Sunday afternoon finale, (4.22 ERA/4.17 FIP) faces (4.10 ERA/4.15 FIP). Hughes had a decent 2010, but Scherzer was outstanding, accruing 3.7 FWAR (3.50 ERA/3.71 FIP), the 17th-best total in the AL. While Sabathia-Verlander is always great, watching these two young flamethrowers square off could end up being the most exciting match-up of the weekend.

Given that this is the first series preview of the season, we obviously don’t have any 2011 team stats to do my patented head-to-head look, so instead we’ll look at each team’s projected starting lineup’s CAIRO-projected triple slashes:

Yankees
1 LF – .270/.358/.372
2 SS – .290/.360/.406
3 1B – .276/.377/.515
4 3B – .281/.372/.526
5 2B – .306/.355/.511
6 RF – .260/.354/.470
7 DH – .267/.355/.460
8 CF – .252/.335/.462
9 C – .263/.362/.380

Tigers
1 CF – .264/.320/.373
2 2B – .263/.308/.350
3 RF – .308/.379/.471
4 1B – .303/.383/.547
5 DH – .291/.350/.464
6 LF – .272/.338/.468
7 SS – .262/.318/.418
8 3B – .232/.312/.388
9 C – .244/.330/.388

On paper the Yankee offense is clearly deeper than Detroit’s, but it’s not as if the Tigers will be sending the 2010 Mariners out there.

It’s always tricky to make a prediction for the first series of the season, as we wouldn’t expect either team to be operating at peak capacity right of the gate. Additionally, all three of these games could easily go either way. I can envision Verlander outdueling the historically slower-starting Sabathia in the opener, though obviously Sabathia is capable of outpitching Verlander; Saturday could be a bloodbath with both Penny and Burnett starting; and the Hughes-Scherzer showdown probably ends up getting decided by the bullpens. The call? Yankees, two out of three.