A Look at the 2011 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

In 2009 the Angels won 97 games and came two victories shy of making the World Series. That team featured a high-powered offense that put the ball in play to score runs. Apart from , no other player on that team had more than 30 homers, but every single starter posted an OPS+ of 104 or better. To put how good that is into perspective, not even the 2010 Yankees featured a lineup of 100 OPS+ hitters top to bottom (than you very much, ). Unfortunately for the 2009 Angels, they didn’t offer much in the way of pitching. Baseball-Reference only lists four qualified starters for the team, and two of them were and . In all likelihood, had the 2009 Yankee offense not chewed up that rotation, the 2009 Phillies’ offense would have.

That was 2009. The 2010 version of the Angels was different. Longtime ace left as a free agent. The team mistakenly thought was finished, and let him leave, replacing him with . The Angels were smart to sell high on , who is now the Mariners’ problem, but bad luck undid that fortune. broke his ankle in a walk-off celebration, while Tampa import managed an ERA+ of 68. The net impact of that was to turn a 97-win team into an 80-win team. Once the power of the AL West, the Angels saw Texas (and possibly Oakland) emerge as a better team. The full details of the 2010 season are below.

The data above are taken directly from Baseball-Reference. The player assigned to each position appeared there the most during the season.

In light of these numbers it is surprising that the Angels won 80 games last year. Five of their nine regulars had OPS+’s below 100, three of them below 80. The remaining four regulars were professional hitters, but it is tough to overcome a lineup that’s 55% crap. The pitching was better, but not by leaps and bounds. is as legit a starter as you’ll find, while Santana had a bounceback season after his sub-par 2009, but is mediocre on a good day and didn’t give the team innings. The artist formally known as and , meanwhile, suck. was an excellent acquisition, but he didn’t arrive in time to do much damage. While the team’s Pythagorean was 79-83, only one win less than its actual performance, this easily could have been a 75-win team or worse. That’s what happens when you throw out less than half a lineup to back up only half a rotation.

The 2011 team doesn’t project to become the power of the West anytime soon, but it does figure to be better than the 2010 vintage. As is my custom in these posts, I’ve plucked the data from the good people at RotoChamp who continue to do an excellent job of projecting not only player performance, but also the actual lineups of each team in the coming season. I hate doing that. I’ve posted the Marcel projection instead of the CAIRO projection this time because CAIRO still has at first base for the Angels. He’s out indefinitely with lingering problems from last season’s injury. I’ve also included RotoChamp’s proprietary projection system as a thank-you for providing me the lineup.

Neither projection system is fond of the projected 2011 Angel hitters. Only the over-priced and project to have at least 20 homers, while the rest of the hitters aren’t forecasted to even sniff a .450 SLG. and won’t hit for any power and won’t draw enough walks, while , and are all projected below replacement level. For the second consecutive season the Angels will feature a lineup with at most five professional hitters. That won’t be enough to get the job done against the loaded Texas lineup and the Oakland pitching.

The Angel rotation projects more favorably. and are the highlights of these forecasts. The Angels will benefit from a full season of Haren, while Weaver projects to remain a front line pitcher. That’s as solid a one-two punch as you’ll find in baseball. ‘s forecasts are also reasonable. Both systems peg him right in line with what he did last season, although RotoChamp is forecasting him to post more innings than is likely. It’s downhill after that.  was an adequate pitcher last season,  but he posted an 85 ERA+ in 2009. Marcel is being too kind to him. His numbers figure to be closer to the RotoChamp side of the ledger. The same is also true of . Kazmir was awful last season, comically so. Marcel’s forecast that his ERA will improve by 1.3 runs is ludicrous. Even the RotoChamp forecast seems generous.

Oddly, RotoChamp lists a large bullpen for the 2011 Angels, presenting stats on far more players than they had for other teams. None of those pitchers is particularly dominant, though. projects well, but he’s a lefty specialist. After that either system projects a bevy of average pitchers. If these forecasts hold true the Angels figure to have plenty of ammo in the bullpen, but not much in the way of heavy artillery.

After putting one of the best teams in baseball on the field in 2009, the 2010 Angels aspired to mediocrity. The 2011 vintage figures to be better, but only marginally so. The front of the team’s rotation is as good as it gets, but it’s downhill from there. It is possible that Pineiro and Santana will give them team decent production, but replacement value can’t be ruled out as a possible outcome for those two. , meanwhile, shouldn’t be counted on to be a good pitcher again. That means at most three legitimate pitchers in front of a decidedly below average offense, with a large but average bullpen backing them up. At most this is an 85-win team, with considerable downside.