Yankeeist reader Wayne recently asked me to take a look at Jesus Montero, and though we’ve touched on Jesus here and there throughout the offseason, I realized that we haven’t done a thorough Yankeeist look at the Yankees’ most promising hitting prospect in ages, and so I’m happy to oblige.
If you’re a Yankee fan with a pulse, you already know the deal with Montero, so there’s no need to delve into the hype. Right now, the most important nugget of information is that he’s widely considered to be one of the top three hitting prospects in all of baseball. Many feel his bat is already Major League-ready, but his defense remains suspect. Former Rangers scout Frankie Piliere believes Montero is ready to catch at the big league level in 2o11, and the Yankees will undoubtedly give him a fair amount of time to prove himself, as his potent bat will be that much more valuable at catcher. Given that the Yankees have suffered through ‘s “defense” during the last decade, all Montero has to do is be as good as Jorge behind the plate and he’ll be fine. If he can’t even play to a Posada-type level of defense, the Yankees probably have a future DH on their hands — not the worst thing in the world, but you’d like to see Montero be able to contribute on both sides of the ball.
Here’s a look at Montero’s minor league career:
Monumentally impressive. I have to imagine the list of 19-year-olds that put up a .446 wOBA in their first 48 games in High A is pretty small. Montero of course jumped to AA that same season, and ripped the Eastern League apart to the tune of a .407 wOBA over 181 plate appearances. This line is even more awe-inspiring when taking into account the fact that Trenton’s home park is notoriously known as death to hitters.
After a famously slow start this past season — his first in AAA — Montero caught absolute fire in the second half (), and finished with a spectacular .289/.353/.517; .375 wOBA line (3.4 WAR) in his age 20 season. One can only imagine how much more amazing Montero’s season would have been had he not slumped so significantly during the first two months of the year ().
Here’s a look at his Major League equivalencies for the last three seasons:
| MLEs | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 2008 (A) | .226 | .258 | .319 |
| 2009 (AA) | .262 | .303 | .421 |
| 2010 (AAA) | .250 | .305 | .429 |
On the surface, those aren’t particularly impressive numbers, and I actually think they sell Jesus considerably short. In my experience Sean Smith’s MLEs tend to be inherently pessimistic, and I’m not sure they’re a great indicator of a singular talent like Montero. On the flip side, I’ve also seen the following far more optimistic equivalencies for Montero from The Hardball Times:
| MLEs | BA | OBP | SLG |
| 2008 (A) | .293 | .335 | .435 |
| 2009 (AA) | .314 | .359 | .537 |
| 2010 (AAA) | .279 | .339 | .501 |
These seem a bit too happy in my opinion. If you take the averages of these two sets of equivalencies (his 2010 line averages out to .265/.322/.465) you’d probably get a more realistic interpretation of how Montero’s Minor League numbers would translate at the MLB level.
So what can we expect from Montero at the Major League level in 2011? Despite Wayne’s concerns, if the Yankees deem Montero ready for action either at the beginning of the season or a month or so into the year as many of us expect, I doubt he gets limited to 250 PAs. For one, even if proves his bat is back to being at an acceptable level for a starting catcher, the Yankees have zero interest in continuing to trot out as the back-up, and so Montero should still get plenty of playing time as the backstop. On days when Montero isn’t starting in the field, I imagine will figure out how to get his bat in the lineup at DH.
A
s we noted back in November, Bill James has what appears to be a wildly aggressive projection for Montero, calling for the 21-year-old to hit .285/.348/.519; .376 wOBA in 442 PAs. This would require Jesus to essentially duplicate his 2010 at AAA in the Majors, and for as talented as Montero is that just doesn’t seem realistic for any prospect, no matter how much hype they may have attached to their name. In that same James projections post I also noted that “only” put up a .360 wOBA in his rookie season, while burst onto the scene with a scalding-hot .410 wOBA in 1936. If Montero somehow did manage to pull that .376 wOBA off, it would rank among the highest debuts for a player in Yankee history.
SG’s considerably more realistic CAIRO projection still has Montero as an above-average contributor, hitting .261/.326/.446; .337 wOBA in 508 plate appearances, which would be worth an impressive 24 Batting Runs Above Replacement (or 2.4 WAR). Even if we penalize Montero at -5 on Defense, which would make him among the worst defenders in the game, he’d still be worth 1.9 WAR, which would be fantastic. For comparison’s sake, The Mick compiled 1.8 fWAR in his rookie season, and he wasn’t a catcher.
The Hardball Times’ Oliver projection system has Montero at .284/.337/.497; .357 wOBA; however those numbers are only across 152 plate appearances. Still, this middle ground projection could actually be the closest. I love CAIRO, but a .337 wOBA might be underrating Montero just a tad; while James and his .376 is crazycakes. Given what we know about Montero’s minor league numbers and Major League equivalencies, Jesus seems like a reasonable bet to end up wOBAing somewhere in the .350s.
Obviously the most important thing for the fanbase with regards to Montero is to exercise patience. Even if he comes up and has a sub-.300 wOBA during his first month or so, it’s critical to be mindful that for all his talent he’ll still only be a 21-year-old playing one of the hardest sports at the highest level in the world. Remember, — who was much less heralded a prospect than Montero — wOBAed only .282 over his first 89 PAs, so there will almost certainly be an adjustment period for Montero. However, once Jesus finally get comfortable, Yankee fans are going to be in for something truly special.
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I'm seriously worried that Montero turns out to be a bat without a position. His value would be greatly diminished if he winds up as just a DH. It would probably make sense to turn him into a first baseman if it weren't for Tex standing in the way.
Although Montero has the most value as a catcher, I disagree that his value is tremendously reduced if he can't cut it defensively. If his bat plays as-advertised then the Yankees will either trade him to a team that believes it can develop him into a catcher, or use him as the DH, a position that projects to be mostly open once Jorge retires, probably after 2011.
Don't get me wrong: The kid should poor his heart and soul into catching, but any bat with .300/.400/.550 potential, which is what he projects to, has tremendous value just about anywhere.
Mr. Koestler, THANK YOU for an excellent article on Montero! It was better than I could have hoped for. The projections on what Montero might do in his first MLB season were exciting, even the low-end projections seem to indicate he could be truly special in 2011 and beyond.
I was wondering about one thing, though: what “whole,” if any, does Montero currently have in his swing (e.g., a pitch location he doesn’t handle, problems handling curves, sliders, or change ups, etc.). MLB pitchers will find that whole in short order and exploit it; his ability to compensate for that whole will determine how good he ends up being, along with his ability to handle ML life and NYC.
Thank you again for responding so quickly to my request for an article about Montero. I’d say it was worth the wait, but you hardly made me wait at all! Great piece!
One last thing, Mr. Koestler, I was expecting to get tweaked or blasted for saying Jeter was the last high-ceiling player the Yankees gave a shot as a full-time player. I purposefully omitted Cano’s name because, as you noted, Cano “was much less heralded a prospect than Montero.” I was pleased to see you understood why I omitted Cano from my list of Jeter-like high-ceiling players.
If I remember correctly, there were concerns early on that Cano might lack the focus or self-discipline to reach his potential. That negative attribute, in fact, seemed to be encouraged by the presence of Bobby Abreu, in particular, which is one reason the Yankees allegedly let him walk. Thankfully, Cano reached and even exceeded his initial projects last year, and we can thank A-Rod, in part, for helping him become a more focused player.
A-Rod doesn’t get anywhere near enough credit for how smart a player he is: he’s one of the smartest players in the game, in my estimation, even if he did screw up in Texas and use steroids. Even that mistake, though, was an attempt (albeit a bad one) to be an even better player.
Thank you, again, for a wonderful article.
Hey Wayne,
Thank you for the kind words; glad you enjoyed the piece. You guys are the reason we're around, and so if someone has a request for a piece we haven't done yet we always do our best to oblige.
As far as any holes in Montero's swing, without actually having seen him play, I am nowhere near qualified to comment on that unfortunately. I'm sure, like every other youngster before him, pitchers will figure out his weakness and he'll have to make the necessary adjustments, but based on everything we've been told about Montero there's no reason to think he can't adjust to MLB pitching. As noted in the post, he had to make adjustments last season in AAA after a wretched start, and he wound up rebounding pretty nicely, wouldn't you say?
Yankee prospects often tend to get overhyped, but when a player is unanimously considered a top-five hitting prospect it's difficult to envision a scenario in which that hitter fails to make an impact at the MLB level. Not to say it's impossible, but Montero sounds destined for big things, offense-wise.
And you're absolutely right about Jeter. No one expected Cano to blossom into the type of player he became, and it's scary to think at one time the Yankees dangled him for Randy Johnson only to have the D-Backs (thankfully) turn them down.
You won't find a bigger A-Rod fan then me (MJR loves him some A-Rod, too), and I agree, I think he's one of the smartest players in the game. Everyone loves to dump on him because of the contract, but you can tell he's sizing up each and every pitch the opposing team is throwing in order to be as thoroughly prepared for every at-bat as he can be. There was a story not too long ago detailing something to the effect of A-Rod recalling the exact sequence of pitches Pettitte threw in any inning, and Pettitte just being blown away that one of his infielders was cerebral enough to pay such close attention to detail.
Alex is constantly feeding information to his teammates. He genuinely cares, and anyone who thinks otherwise just isn't paying close enough attention.
Larry,
I didn’t think you could go up in my esteem any further, but your comments about A-Rod did just that for me. (I can’t imagine how my esteem for you as a baseball writer could get any higher now; and that’s coming from a former newspaper reporter.)
It saddens me that so many Yankee fans don’t appreciate how cerebral A-Rod is as a player. He’s a student of the game who understands the nuances of the game, right down to the finest details; and when he steals a base, it’s because that base matters to the Yankees, not because it matters to his stats.
I recall the Pettitte story you mentioned: that was an excellent example of A-Rod’s cerebral side, as well as his focus during the game and his dedication to the game. Andy, as I recall, was really blown away by A-Rod’s ability to recall every pitch he made.
Thank you, again, for the Montero piece. I feel like I owe you a round or two if you come down my way to watch the Trenton Thunder this season. (I work in Princeton and live just over the state line in PA.) If you haven’t been to a Trenton game, the facility is excellent.
To all you Yankee fans out there, if you live within an hour’s drive or so of Trenton, it’s a great place to see a game, ticket prices are very reasonable, and your kids or grandkids will love it if they’re baseball fans.
Thanks again, Larry.
Hey Wayne,
Wow, not really sure what to say, other than that I would like to nominate you for nicest comment in Yankeeist history.
Blog comment sections are almost always filled to the brim with arguments and disagreements — as one would expect them to be, as saying "I completely agree with you" doesn't typically add to the level of discourse — but it's still wonderful to receive a note of gratitude like that.
I will certainly keep your offer in mind should I find my way down to a Trenton Thunder game. It'd be a blast to shoot the bull over a couple of beers.