What failing to sign Teixeira cost the Red Sox

By On December 5, 2010 · 11 Comments · In Uncategorized

In the winter of 2008, Brian Cashman sold ownership on expanding their budget to include enough room to sign free agent 1B Mark Teixeira. Tex was close to signing with the Red Sox, and part of the rationale Cashman used at the time was that the signing would be pivotal for both franchises. It would allow the Yanks to move Nick Swisher to his natural position in RF, use their financial muscle to acquire a long term fix at 1B for just money and draft picks. From the Red Sox side, they would be looking at making trades to fill at 1B/C, depleting their farm system and forcing them to use their trade chips to fill a need, as opposed to a positional upgrade in CF or SS. Once those trade chips are spent, they obviously can’t be used when other trades present themselves and won’t be available if someone on your 25 man roster gets hurt and you’re looking fill the spot internally.

Taking all of this into account, I wanted to look at what the Red Sox gave up for Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez, and see how it impacted the franchise.

Victor Martinez deal-Bryan Price (minors), Nick Hagadone (minors) and .

Masterson was the centerpiece of this deal, and he hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in the past 2 seasons for the tribe. His WAR has been -0.1 and -0.8 in 2009 and 2010, respectively. But his best work has always been as a reliever, and the Sox bullpen needed all the help it could get last year. Nick Hagadone has stumbled as a 24 year old in AA, where it appears more the advanced hitters took advantage of his spotty control. Bryan Price is a serviceable minor league reliever, with hittable stuff but good control. Big win on the deal for the Sox unless Masterson somehow morphs into Kevin Brown, but the fact they had to make the deal means these chips weren’t available to be used elsewhere. The benefit of having V-Mart on the MLB squad certainly outweighed that, but just picture the Sox having Tex at 1B AND V-Mart behind the dish, the balance of power in the AL East shifts dramatically. The roles could be reversed and the Yanks could be the ones dealing Montero and one of the Killer Bs right now for A-Gon.

Adrian Gonzalez deal-Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes and PTBNL

The ink is barely dry on this trade, but we can already say a few things about it. The Sox gave up 3 of the top 6 prospects in their system. Kelly leads the pack, and while he’s still relatively new to pitching full-time his vast array of tools have wowed scouts for years. Rizzo hasn’t garnered nearly enough attention, he slugged 25 HRs as a 20 year old in High A/AA last year, 20 of them in AA. Strikes out too much, but who doesn’t these days. Fuentes was the Sox 1st round pick in 2009 (28th overall) and is still a baby at 19 years old.

No trade can be fully analyzed until years later, when you know whether these prospects have panned out or not. But clearly some of last year’s Red Sox injury issues could have been alleviated with Masterson in the fold as a swing man. He couldn’t have been much worse than the 43 year old Tim Wakefield, who made 19 starts to a 5.34 ERA. Further, the Sox could have employed Masterson as a reliever (where ) to aid their sagging bullpen. Or they could have used Masterson, Hagadone, Kelly, Rizzo or Fuentes in another package to find an outfielder (or two). As an 89 win team in 2010 that was battered with injuries, they needed all the help they could get. Brian Cashman was right, the deal had enormous ramifications for both franchises.

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11 Responses to What failing to sign Teixeira cost the Red Sox

  1. Moshe Mandel says:
    December 5, 2010 at 10:36 am

    “but just picture the Sox having Tex at 1B AND V-Mart behind the dish”

    If they would have gotten V-Mart anyhow, then his acquisition would be unrelated to the whole Tex thing, right?

    I do think it impacted them in both ways, in that they did not have Tex for the last two seasons, plus they needed to give up prospects. As you alluded to, even if the prospects do not work out, they could have been used to bring in other players.

    Reply
    • Steve S. says:
      December 5, 2010 at 10:39 am

      Yeah, missed that part. I’m still editing this thing.

      One thing about a piece like this, all the potential scenarios are enough to make your head spin.

      Reply
      • Moshe Mandel says:
        December 5, 2010 at 10:43 am

        Although now that I think about, maybe having Tex prevents Beltre? Or Lackey?

        Reply
      • Steve S. says:
        December 5, 2010 at 10:43 am

        Actually, I’m leaving that as is. It still has big impact on the Yankee side, since they don’t have Tex and are scrambling for a 1B or playing Swisher there and looking for a RF.

        Reply
  2. Jake H says:
    December 5, 2010 at 10:53 am

    I do think they hardly gave up anything for Martinez. I don’t understand the hype with Kelly, yes he was young at AA but he go destroyed.

    Reply
  3. Mike says:
    December 5, 2010 at 10:58 am

    One aspect you left out is draft pick compensation. The Red Sox signed Adrian Beltre last year as a result of not signing Teixeira and he had a better season than Teixeira did last year and will now net the Red Sox 2 draft picks as a type A free agent. Those picks should help make up for the loss of the prospects somewhat, as does not surrending their 1st round draft pick that year by not signing Teixeira/a type A free agent.

    Interestingly enough, that pick ended up being Reymond Fuentes, who was now sent to SD in the deal for A-Gon, so it’s like they gave up the pick after all. In terms of prospects, the Red Sox basically trade Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo for the 2 picks they receive for Beltre this year.

    And if you want to include V-Mart (which I don’t really see why you do, Varitek being a miserable hitter had a far greater impact on them wanting Martinez than not getting Teixeira. Plus it only makes it look better for the Red Sox, since they robbed Cleveland), they are also getting 2 picks (including the 19th overall pick from Detroit this year) for him this year that you didn’t mention.

    I’d say the 2009 season was the biggest impact of the trade. With all the draft picks they are getting out of this, the Red Sox may not be far behind in how much they give up prospects wise (though it does set them back a bit development time wise). And with the year Beltre had this year, they were better off with him than Teix in 2010. But the 2009 season could’ve been much different if the Red Sox had Mark Teixeira instead of Mike Lowell, and the Yankees didn’t have Teixeira at all. Just my 2 cents.

    Reply
    • Steve S. says:
      December 5, 2010 at 11:33 am

      Yes, I did leave out the draft picks because that’s another entire post. One with many scenarios, as you detailed. For instance, if the Sox sign Tex they give up THEIR 1st round pick in 2009 and never have Fuentes to begin with.If the Yanks missed out on Tex, who would they have drafted with their 2nd rounder? So many possibilities to consider.

      As I was writing this, I quickly realized I needed to narrow my focus before this thing turned from being a blog post and into a book.

      Reply
  4. Reggie C. says:
    December 5, 2010 at 2:02 pm

    It’d be interesting to see how the opinions Callis and Law evolve on Casey Kelly now that he’s gone from the RS farm. I’ll trust Hoyer knows what he’s doing and that his opinion of Kelly is all that matters.

    Reply
  5. Oz says:
    December 5, 2010 at 8:18 pm

    Ignoring Tex, think about the Gonzo talks that heated up last season… Clay Buchholz was the centerpiece. While the V-mart transaction cost the Sox additional minor leaguers, it may be a matter of quantity over quality. Right now Clay looks like a future CY young winner.

    Reply
  6. Monday Morning Links: Hall Of Fame, AL East Movement, Unbelievable Markets says:
    December 6, 2010 at 7:28 am

    [...] -TYU has an interesting look at the Mark Teixeira failed signing by the Red Sox. [...]

    Reply

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