Don't Worry Too Much About Boston

By On December 9, 2010 · 27 Comments · In Uncategorized

I sense a panic in the air. Its ok! Boston is was not the best team in the American League a week ago, and they are not the best team in the America League today, after acquiring Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez.

The Red Sox won 89 games last season, 6 fewer than the Yankees. They lost their best player Adrian Beltre, who was worth 7.1 wins above replacement according to Fangraphs. They also lost their second best player Victor Martinez, who was worth 4 wins.

What does this mean? The Red Sox have a ton of ground to make up with any additions that they make before they even start to reach the level of the 2010 Yankees, Rays, and Rangers. Carl Crawford was with 7 wins last season, but that was the best season of his career. He’s hovered anywhere from 2.5 to 5.7 over the last few years. Adrian Gonzalez has been a 5-6 win player (WAR includes a ballpark adjustment) over the last two years,. but a 3-4 win player before that.

This means that Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez will have to play on the top of their games just to replace Beltre and Martinez. If the Red Sox are going to win more than 89 games, they will have to count on improvement from the rest of their team. Now, this is likely to happen. The Sox had a lot of injuries last year. The Red Sox will look for a better year out of John Lackey, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury and J.D. Drew, among others. But they’ll have to risk preciptious drops in production from David Ortiz and Clay Buchholtz at the same time. Can they make up 6 wins from this group? Yes, but I don’t think they are likely to.

The Red Sox are going to be a better team in 2011 than they were in 2010, but Carl Crawford doesn’t make them an unstoppable Juggernaut.

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27 Responses to Don't Worry Too Much About Boston

  1. bg90027 says:
    December 9, 2010 at 2:06 pm

    The Crawford signing was a terrible one. He makes them better in the near term but not as much as it might seem because the value of defensive range is largely negated by the short left field in Fenway Park. In the long term, I think that contract is an albatross as his speed diminishes. Boston has less of an ability to absorb mistakes than NY does. As Yankee fans, we should be really happy with that deal. Gonzalez is a beast and a great pickup for them. It further depletes their farm system though and as mentioned, they needed to add a big bat with the loss of Beltre and Martinez.

    Reply
    • T.O. Chris says:
      December 9, 2010 at 2:27 pm

      I couldn’t disagree more! Crawford is 28 years old not an old man so by the time his 7 year deal is done he will only be 35 meaning he will have lost minimal speed probably only enough that it would matter in a big LF which as you point out Fenway is not.

      I also think the way to maximize Crawford’s value for the short and long term is to split his time in the outfield and have him play centerfield for his first 3-4 years of the deal and then transition him to the left side and move in a younger CF, Carl is more than athletically gifted enough to play center and it would allow his defense to really play into the value of the contract not to mention the value of a 3 hitting centerfielder who hits 20 HRs drive in 100 and steals 45.

      Crawford makes the most sense on a 7 year deal out of the three that will get them because he is young enough to not decline in a major way by the end of the deal, as Yankee fans we should realize this is a signing that will probably be a plus contract the entire way through he won’t value 20 million a year but he will produce in a major way.

      I would start him hitting third in the lineup to get the most value I could out of his bat between the HRs and double he can get with the wall he will drive in 100 runs easy, add to that his speed and it’s scary, once he gets the the back part of the deal say the last 2 seasons when he can’t hit 20 HRs anymore I would move him to the 2 hole and he’d score 100 runs the last two years.

      Reply
      • Moshe Mandel says:
        December 9, 2010 at 2:33 pm

        I disagree. he’s not a high OBP guy or a high power guy, so a ton of his value is tied into his speed. It is why I didnt want the Yankees to pursue him and why I think Boston paid too much. If he gets hurt or slows down a bit, it could cost him in a big way. He’s a very good, possibly great player (depends on much you weight defense), but I dont think a 7 year deal at that sort of money was prudent.

        Reply
        • Matt Imbrogno says:
          December 9, 2010 at 2:50 pm

          Agree with all of this. Couldn’t we also make the argument that LF in Fenway takes away from Crawford’s value a little bit? He can cover a ton of ground, but he won’t be covering a ton of ground, simply because he doesn’t have any ground to cover, though I do suspect he will get to his fair share of balls in the gap.

          Reply
          • T.O. Chris says:
            December 9, 2010 at 4:41 pm

            He got overpaid no doubt and there is no way I view him as a “20 million dollar player” but I think his speed is going to hold up until 35 or so and I don’t epxect him to falloff the table until 37 or so, if he was going to be any older than 35 going into the final season he wouldn’t be as valuable but when you look at Crawford I think he can provide no less than 2 WAR per year for the entire contract.

            Of course LF takes his range away Matt which is why I said I would have him play CF for the first 4 years or so and I think that you may end up seeing something like that happen, I don’t doubt that he can play CF as good or better than Ellsbury

            Reply
            • T.O. Chris says:
              December 9, 2010 at 5:05 pm

              I’ll put it this way, considering that we all knew (or at least I thought) they would end up with one of Crawford or Werth and I think you are going to get more value out of Crawford through his 35-36 season than you will Werth through his 39 year old season and since that was their choice they made the right one.

              Crawford fits in better with the Sox way of play better since they are trying to be more speed and defense oriented and he can hit in the top of the order as where Werth can only hit 5 or down.

              Reply
    • EJ Fagan says:
      December 9, 2010 at 3:34 pm

      Yeah, the LF in Fenway thing I still don’t get. Maybe they plan on moving him to right?

      I think its a bad deal long term, but clearly improves the team in the short term. I’m sort of looking forward to facing the Red Sox a few years from now when they’re stuck with old men in Lackey, Crawford, Beckett, AGon, etc.

      Reply
  2. T.O. Chris says:
    December 9, 2010 at 4:55 pm

    True, but hey, we’ll still have Cano and CC.  

    So somehow Adrian Gonzalez who is currently in his 20′s will be an “older guy” but CC who is 30 won’t be “old”? How do you figure? Also if a 28 year Agon is old in a few years isn’t a 28 year old Cano right behind him?

    I really think their is a lot of arogance foolishness going around about the Sox and the biggest flaw in all these arguments is that Gonzo and Crawford have to produce more than Beltre and Vmart did last year just to win 89 games which is really untrue, all Boston had to do was stay healthy last year and they win 90 games so if they stay healthy this year (and they can’t be as hurt) they should win at least 90 games.

    Reply
  3. T.O. Chris says:
    December 9, 2010 at 5:00 pm

    There’s no reason to panic but you guys are acting like the Sox got no better and some of you make it sound like they may have gotten worse and won’t be a factor in the end of the season which is a very cocky and arogant attitude to have considering we won the World Series come off THE EXACT SAME RECORD in 2008 and re-toolling in a similar fashion after an injury marred season the year before.

    Reply
  4. old fan says:
    December 9, 2010 at 5:19 pm

    I am used to seeing many strong Boston teams, and in a perverse way, I admire the strength of them, with a slugger/strong hitter at almost every position.
    The mid to late 1960′s team with Yaz, Petrocelli, Scott, Conig, etc. were fun to watch. The mid to late 1970′s teams with Lynn, Rice, Evans, Yaz, etc. were so formidible I still wonder how the Billy Martin teams beat them. The early to mid 2000′s teams with the Manny/ Ortiz core and their constant heroics were very scary and frequent sources of TV angst. Before my time, the late 1940′s /early 1950′s teams were power backed. Reveiwing the key games from this era are classics with HOFers all over the place-on both sides.
    Now, it seems, we will be seeing a new chapter with a outrageous Sox lineup matched up with a outrageous Yankee lineup.
    Can’t wait for the games!
    But we absolutely need Lee and another very good LH reliever (Downs, Fuentes?) to stay on top in this relationship.

    Reply
    • T.O. Chris says:
      December 9, 2010 at 5:51 pm

      Would you be willing to give 2 or 3 years to Downs or Fuentes? I really can’t convince myself giving a 34 year old reliever a multiyear deal is a good idea.

      I would rather try and get Feliciano on a 1 year deal, he’s the same age as the others but shouldn’t command as much in years and money.

      Reply
      • old fan says:
        December 9, 2010 at 7:03 pm

        We may have to (give a 2 or 3 yr contract to Downs or Fuentes) if we want to win a title in the next 2 yrs. Being frugal and prudent here might get us the honor of being the 2nd or 3rd best team in the AL.
        Both Downs and Fuentes seem to be good risks as they have been fairly consisent over their careers, but so was Marte before he came to the Yankees, so you never really know.
        Feliciano is OK, because we absolutely need proven LH relief, but I’d prefer the more accomplished Downs or Fuentes. Right now this is a huge need on a strong contending team, and to not try to get a better arm, when they are available, would be something that we would regret later on in the season. A good LH arm could consistently shut down the LH hitters on all of our close rivals.
        I hope the Steinbrenners won’t say to Cashman, “You’ve spent enough!” on this, because the team really needs a quality arm in this role.
        Based on the last 2 yrs, you can’t depend on a half season from Marte. Anything he provides has to be looked on as gravy, next year.

        Reply
        • T.O. Chris says:
          December 9, 2010 at 7:14 pm

          Have you seen Feliciano’s numbers VS LHB over the last 3 years? I posted them in off topic section on the side I wouldn’t call that OK myself I would say it’s pretty dominant, not to mention the upside of being able to sign Wood if we sign Feliciano but I think Downs or Fuentes nix Kerry from the budget. I know the Sox are heavy on Downs and Wood, I would really hate to see Kerry setting up in red next season.

          Feliciano VS LHB over the last 3 years .212/.273/.310/.583. 110 K, 24 BB, 6 HR, 17 2B in 377 ABs

          Reply
          • old fan says:
            December 9, 2010 at 8:05 pm

            I was just about to post the Wood angle (only being able to sign either/or), so I agree–its a tough choice.

            I think it is clear that Theo is in a full focus full court press to grab the title next year, and he’s just started on rebuilding their bullpen. I think that he is trying to get Fuente, plus others-maybe thru trades..

            You pose an interesting question, though. In a world of limited resources (money, roster spots), what combination of off season bullpen acquistions would be best for the Yanks? The choices are Wood, Downs, Fuentes,and Feliciano, and you have to consider if Aceves and Marte,(plus the other reclamation projects, and rookies looking to break thru) will be available later in the year. I’d have to think further on this.
            I assume that you are proposing the Wood/ Feliciano combination–which certainly has a lot of merit. My gut feeling is that we may need more LH talent, though. How has Feliciano performed against AL East foes? There is that NL pitcher coming to the AL East thing worry if I don’t have the data.

            I think it’s certain that Theo will grab at least one, maybe two, of these FA.
            Also, we don’t know, for sure,what these guys are demanding in $ and yrs., .

            So further thought is needed. Then again, I’m not getting paid for this, so maybe I’ll just wait to see what Cashman and Epstein end up doing. lol And hope that Cashman makes the wisest choices. lol

            Reply
            • T.O. Chris says:
              December 9, 2010 at 8:17 pm

              I don’t really care that much about NL Vs AL when it comes to a lefty specialist, they have a niche to get out all lefties and they don’t face pitchers so that doesn’t skew numbers, if you add Feliciano to Logan then we have a very good combo of left handed pitching.

              I actually think the Sox will only get Downs and maybe Wood if they can swing it just because it helps them and hurts us but they have a setup man already and if I’m Kerry I would setup for Mo but not Bard and Papelbum (couldn’t help myself) so I don’t worry about that as much as maybe I should.

              Guys like Aceves and Prior will be signed to minor league deals so they don’t actually affect the budget since neither one would start with the club but instead pitch in Scranton until their contracts are purchased.

              Reply
              • old fan says:
                December 9, 2010 at 8:37 pm

                My main concern right now is that Cashman gets in gear and gets some of these guys before they are all gone. Many of these pieces can work for us.

                He says he is working on a lot of things–some surprising to us.

                I dream about waking up and reading that he got Soriano, who has agreed to set up for Mo for 2 yrs, then become the closer.
                Wouldn’t that be nice?
                Regards

  5. old fan says:
    December 9, 2010 at 5:35 pm

    Some other comment….

    (1)- I’ve read numerous times where Crawford didn’t want to play CF for the Rays. But I guess if someone is paying you $20M a year, you will play wherever they ask you to.

    (2)-What is most scary to me is the Ellsbury/ Crawford combination (assuming Ells has not lost any of his daring because of the painful months of rib problems). Ells actually steals more bases than Crawford at this point of their careers. They have to bat them next to each other in the lineup. Can you imagine them both on base and in stealing situations? What stress on our pitcher and catcher. Can Montero handle this? Posada certainly can’t at this point of his career. We need the best throwing catcher available in the world so as to counter this threat in late inning, tight game situations. The best thing for us would be if the Sox would be so stupid enoug has to trade Ellsbury for some middle relief.

    Reply
    • T.O. Chris says:
      December 9, 2010 at 5:47 pm

      You are right oldfan he has rebufed center before but if I’m paying him 20 million I want to maximize his value and he has more value especially in that park in center.

      I actually wouldn’t want them together both being lefties I would rather break them up with Pedroia in to give Crawford more people to drive in and also put 3 people at the top of the order who can score runs.

      Reply
  6. Oz says:
    December 9, 2010 at 6:45 pm

    If the season were to start today (no Lee, Pettitte returns), I’d have to say the Sox are the better team. The Sox might be healthy plus their new all-stars.
    (Youk + 60games)+(Pedroia + 75games)+(Ellsbury + 144games)+(Gonzo + 162games)+(Crawford + 162games)+(Beckett + 70innings) – IS GREATER THAN – (Beltre – 154games) + (V-mart – 127games)
    I know I’m making some huge assumptions but you catch my drift.

    Reply
  7. T.O. Chris says:
    December 9, 2010 at 8:50 pm

    My main concern right now is that Cashman gets in gear and gets some of these guys before they are all gone. Many of these pieces can work for us.He says he is working on a lot of things–some surprising to us.I dream about waking up and reading that he got Soriano, who has agreed to set up for Mo for 2 yrs, then become the closer.
    Wouldn’t that be nice?
    Regards  

    The main problem is we don’t know how much we have to spend until Lee makes up his mind on what deal he wants and only then can we decide on some of these other guys like Downs.

    I wouldn’t be that happy about it because Soriano would be making around 12 million to setup and besides he has already said he would never do that because he is a closer (I guess 1 year after splitting time with Mike G he’s a closer haha) and the the Yankees said early in the offseason they had interest only if Mo left.

    I would rather see them spend less over a wider area…. for instance bringing in Scott Hairston and/or Bill Hall, signing Russell Martin to compete with Montero, signing Wood and Feliciano and maybe adding Mark Prior on a minor league deal. If we could pull off those moves on top of Lee and bringing Pettitte back then I think we are right there with the Sox .

    Reply
    • old fan says:
      December 9, 2010 at 9:06 pm

      Soriano is just a daydream that I allow myself to indulge in at this time of year. Same with Adam Dunn before he signed with the ChiSox.

      Actually, I think it will work out about as you described–all of this has been reported in print. Except maybe Hall, who reportedly wants 2 yrs and the Yanks want only 1 yr, and he supposedly has other 2-yr offers.

      It would still be nice if Brian pleasantly surprised us with something after this last week.
      Or then again, maybe it would be good to let the BoSox take the center stage this year (except for Lee), then the country would have another baddie team to excoriate.

      Hey, they said that Lee will make his decision by the end of this weekend. Let’s get it done and over with, already.

      Reply
      • T.O. Chris says:
        December 9, 2010 at 9:28 pm

        No one is hating on the Red Sox for their signing in fact they seem to be blaming us for “making ” them become “us” ridiculous! I’m use to the hate though, when you win 27 titles you step on a lot of toes along the way haha.

        Yeah Hall has a 2 year offer from the Pirates but GL if you want that over the Yankees, we do need someone like that though a guy who can play 3rd and maybe play some outfield but with a bat better than Pena’s.

        I’d like to see Nunez spend a lot of time in triple A next year to see what he actually has so that means you Cervelli/Martin and Pena on the bench for next year which leaves two spots for an outfielder such as Scott and a place for a utility type of guy with a bat, I don’t want Colin Curtis on the bench this year.

        Reply
        • old fan says:
          December 9, 2010 at 10:21 pm

          Nunez looked real good for the first 2-3 weeks, then it seemed that he was a little overcome with it all—typical for a rookie. A little more seasoning is right.

          I love Bill Hall’s power and versatility. He’s a gamer. Decent base runner. But he did make a lot of errors last yr, mostly playing the infield. Has never been a good BA or OB guy. In a reserve role–OK–better than a lot. But, I’d prefer a better fielder, if avaiable.

          I never quite understood the reason why Curtis became the reserve OF for a while last yr. Then I read somewhere that he lives in the Pacific Northwest, and my conspiratorial side surmised that he was called up to “showcase” him as a possible throw-in chip in a package for Lee, at the trading deadline. Never heard anything to confirm this. But, it was funny how he was sent down right after the Lee trade to Texas (and us getting Kerns, of course). the Yanks could do much better for this role.

          In recent yrs, the Yankees bench seems to be weak, at the start, then is beefed up at the deadline from clubs shedding people and salaries.

          I think the Yanks/ Sox relationship, in it’s totality, is both facinating and hilarious.

          Reply
  8. YankeesVine » Blog Archive » Sunday Morning Links: Rule 5, Minor League Signings, Russell Martin, And Some Guy Named Cliff Lee says:
    December 12, 2010 at 3:19 pm

    [...] had some great stuff on their site recently. The main two are E.J. Fagan’s piece about not worrying about Boston as much as people are, and William J.’s look at starters [...]

    Reply

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