Yankeeist’s 2010 ALDS Preview, Part 2: 25-Man Roster Comparisons

In case you missed part 1, please click on the following:

Yankeeist’s 2010 ALDS Series Preview, Part 1: Head-to-Head Overall Team Numbers

Edited, 1:24pm. So of course the roster was announced five minutes after this post went up. did indeed make the roster over Eduardo Nunez, while got the nod over for some reason. is also on the roster. The following individual player breakdowns are my best guesses at the 25-man rosters; as neither team has released them yet. I think I’m pretty close on the Yankee roster, though one of Eduardo Nunez or could be swapped out for , while the Yankees could opt for another reliever instead of , although if they’re thinking about or I’d prefer Burnett.

I haven’t heard word on the Twins yet, but I feel pretty good about the 14 position players I expect Minnesota to use. I couldn’t narrow Gardenhire’s pitching staff down to 11 from 13, so do not take these as gospel.

Offense

I have 10 Yankees listed as starters, as will be platooned with . The Twins’ two clear advantages lie at DH and catcher, where throttles the Berkman/Thames two-headed monster, while of course continues to be the best catcher in baseball, though didn’t exactly have a bad year.

The rest of the Yankees’ infield dominates the Twins outfield, with even in a down year outproducing , killing , besting (you know it’s a strange year for shortstops when a .320 wOBA represents a superior mark), and edging . However, Valencia’s no pushover, and his impressive .351 wOBA has him in the running for AL Rookie of the Year.

In the outfield the Yankees boast three players with 3.0-plus yWARs in , and . The Twins counter with , and . While Young and Kubel are solid offensive threats, they give a lot of their value back on defense, as evi
denced by their surprisingly low yWARs. The Yankees also have the clear edge in the outfield, as well. So out of nine position players, the Yankees have the advantage in seven of them. There’s probably a case to be made for Young over Gardner, but I feel that Gardy’s defensive contributions outweigh any advantages Young might bring on the slugging end of the spectrum.

The Twins look to have the slight edge with their bench, with and providing near-league average performances, and and just above replacement level. Of , , and , only Kearns provides any pop, which will make any late-game pinch-running/defensive substitutions Joe Girardi may opt for very difficult to swallow.

Pitching

The Yankees’ trio of , and is probably slightly better than the Twins’ planned foursome of , , and , although Blackburn’s numbers are dragging the rest down pretty significantly. Likewise, the Yankee bullpen is being dragged a bit by Burnett’s numbers, and it’s not even clear whether will throw a pitch in this series.

I would take the Yankees’ endgame of --- over the Twins’ ---, despite the fact that the Twins’ foursome have absurdly low FIPs — that just means they don’t walk anybody. Not that that attribute should be discounted, but the Twins’ ‘pen is more likely to yield a base hit or a home run. If and do make the roster, I wouldn’t expect to see either get any significant innings and they may not pitch at all unless a game gets out of hand. As for Gardenhire, he’ll have starters and available as long men.

It’s pretty clear that these two teams match-up very closely. Again, the Yankees obviously get the edge on offense, and their three-man starting rotation is arguably stronger than the Twins’ four starters, given that the Yankees would be running a 5.2 yWAR pitcher out to the mound twice in those head-to-head matchups. The bullpens are also very close, but I like the Yankee relievers’ ability to miss bats more than the Twins’ propensity to let the opposition put the ball in play and see what happens.

Please also be sure to check out SG’s position player and pitcher postseason previews, Cliff Corcoran’s ALDS lineup breakdown and and of TYU’s ALDS Preview.