In perusing the wOBA leaderboards on Fangraphs, as I am wont to do, I couldn’t help but notice that has remained in the top 10 in the American League even after a torrid April (.483 wOBA) that he couldn’t possibly have maintained, sporting a mighty .411 mark. Though Konerko unsurprisingly fell back to earth and then some in May (.315), he resumed being a beast in June and has continued raking as he puts together what may end up being the finest season of his 14-year career.
I’ve made no secret of my desire to see Adam Dunn in pinstripes, and with Dunn once again approaching free agency this offseason I will continue to bang that drum, especially given that (a) ‘s pleasantly surprising season may compel the Yankees to stay away from , despite everyone and their mother assuming Crawford to the Yanks was a foregone conclusion; (b) the Yankees are likely to have a gaping hole at designated hitter; and (c) if they don’t in fact pursue Crawford they will almost certainly need another bat. And even if they do end up hauling Crawford in I’d still like to see them address the DH.
As much as I love The Stick, It seems incredibly unlikely that the Yankees will exercise Nick Johnson‘s mutual option (though as posited by RAB’s Joe Pawlikowski in a recent chat, Nick the Injury could represent an interesting potential bench piece if the price was right) and even less likely that would be brought back. has done a very nice job in limited duty this season, and even though he’s been an equal-opportunity masher (.392 wOBA vs. lefties; .363 vs. righties) despite being brought in primarily as a lefty-killer, he’s unlikely to continue defying his platoon split, especially in a full-time role.
I’ve seen a handful of Yankee experts opine that the team may opt to keep the DH available to rotate the team’s veterans in 2011, but while that’s worked to some extent this season (the Yankees have received a .355 wOBA out of their designated hitters in 2010; good for the 4th-best total in the AL) I still think it’s ludicrous to punt the DH — a lineup slot solely designed to generate offense — in favor of giving and et. al. the occasional day of rest. Going with the rotating DH not only ensures that nonexistent sticks like ‘s get to waste far more at-bats than they should, but also disregards another .020 to .030 potential wOBA points depending on which full-time DH you’re hypothetically not signing.
Additionally, the Yankees have experienced a bit of a power outage this season. I know offensive numbers are slightly depressed league-wide, but this 2010 Yankee team has not bashed the ball with the regularity the lineup is capable of. If the season ended today, the Yankees would tally their lowest team SLG (.440) in 10 years, save for the injury-riddled, slump-ridden and best-left-forgotten 2008 campaign (.427). That’s quite the dropoff from the team that led the world in slugging in 2009, with a beastly .478 mark.
is the perfect player for the Yankees — an ideal blend of power and patience — and they are obviously aware of this, as they inquired about acquiring Dunn prior to the trade deadline only to find that the Nationals’ requests were not in line with what they were hoping to pay. I was desperate for the Yankees to sign Dunn in the ’08-’09 offseason, and was baffled that he remained on the market until just before spring training. Of course, with in tow there wasn’t exactly an obvious spot for Dunn, but I figured the Yankees could figure out some way to slot 40 home runs and 100 walks into their lineup.
Coming into 2011 there will be a spot for Dunn, and the Yankees really should be all over him. Dunn only cost $10 million a year when Mike Rizzo signed him, although with a somewhat improved economy and an increased number of suitors this past trade deadline the Big Donkey may not come as cheaply this time around. Then again, how much can a team realistically pay a guy who you don’t want anywhere near a glove and who’s going to contribute nothing in the field? Fangraphs has Dunn’s season being worth $13.3 million thus far; it seems like $13 million would probably be the maximum price you could pay for a designated hitter. I don’t see anyone in baseball paying Dunn $15 million a year given that he comes with significantly negative defense.
However, if the Yankees either decide that Dunn’s ask is too high or lose out to another team on Adam, perhaps — coming off a five-year deal in which he was paid $12 million per — becomes a comparable option.
Here’s a look at what Dunn and Konerko have done in 2010 through last night’s games, along with their career numbers:
Though Konerko’s having a career year, he’ll also be entering his age 35 season, while Dunn will be heading into his age 31 season, so Konerko would likely be slightly cheaper. Historically Konerko will walk less than Dunn, but also put far more balls in play, hence the higher career batting average. You could also plug Konerko in at first base in a pinch.
However, despite a down year by his standards, is an offensive monster. Dunn’s accumulated nearly as high a WAR total as Konerko despite playing four fewer seasons; he currently leads the NL in Isolated Power and has been in the top 12 in that category every year since 2005; he has a superb career walk rate of 16%; and is a career .384 wOBA hitter. I would very much like for Dunn to remain the Yankees’ top offensive priority this coming offseason.
But if the Yankees can’t get Dunn, they could do worse than taking a long look at , a pretty comparable player who is currently out-Dunning Dunn at his own game. I’m not terribly familiar with Chicago’s intentions, although I’d imagine they’d look to bring a cornerstone of their offense back to the team he’s been with for the last 12 years, so that could make landing Konerko somewhat difficult. Regardless, Konerko and his career .365 wOBA make for an intriguing possibility as next year’s designated hitter.
Edited at 3:15pm to add a link to a table of the Yankees’ year-by-year team SLG back to 1994 and corresponding MLB and AL ranks. As you can see, the Yankee offenses of 2002, 2007 and 2009 were quite the powerhouses.
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Larry, great subject matter for the post, and I'm actually glad you focused 90% of it on Dunn, who I would also love to see in Pinstripes. If they cannot acquire Dunn, I think Konerko would be a waste of money. Think of it as if Konerko was already a Yankee finishing a 5 year deal. Despite having a career year, try to remember, as a fan, some of the pain you went through the previous 4. We let Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, and Matsui go, who were all comparable in age and salary, and probably could have been signed for less.
I say no go to konerko unless it is exactly what we gave Nick the Stick, but even then, I would never expect him to repeat a career year at his age, and as a Yankee fan, my expectations are far higher. I think there are far better value players out there, and we are trying to get younger, not older.
I would love to see the Yankees sign Dunn, (I agree with Eric re: Konerko) but if the recent salary ceiling of about $205 million is real then the Yankees may not have the cash.
The team entered the year with about that much on the books. Although it has about $22 million coming off from Vazquez and Pettitte, Cliff Lee alone will eat all of that. The $5.5 million from Nick Johnson will be more than eclipsed when Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson and Robbie Cano all get the raises in their contracts.
Adding a Dunn or Crawford probably puts the Yankees closer to $220 million at the start of the season, assuming they don't also re-sign someone like Pettitte. Unless the team is truly willing to bust budget for the right players (Dunn would positively OWN Yankee Stadium), I'm not sure this happens.
I think the Yankees need to throw the budget out the window with regards to bringing Adam Dunn in. Dunn might hit 50 home runs if he played half his games in Yankee Stadium.
I'm not buying Konerko or Dunn stock. For starters, Dunn has expressed interest in being a field player, not an exclusive DH. I'm not even sure he'd go for being a Yankee. Second, he'll cost a premium and from what I see, all indications show he will not be a graceful ager. If the Yanks were to acquire him for several years, that might get ugly quick. Ditto for Konerko.
I actually like the idea of a rotating DH spot. Guys like Jeter and A-Rod won't necessarily want a day of rest. They will need a spot altogether when they're incapable of playing their position. Like it or not, both those guys are sticking around for a while. Having a DH spot that is open is the only way of partially addressing that.
Also, I took a look at DH production as a whole and it isn't the most prolific hitter on the team most of the time. I'd settle for a capable hitter the majority of the time. That still keeps guys like Pena from killing every rally possible.
The problem as I see it is that there are not a lot of infielders who can also hit to DH level, which is what Matt is saying the Yankees need.
I agree with the identified problem: ARod and Jete are senior citizens at this point who can still swing the bat well. Unfortunately, it is difficult to find a player who can play short and third who can also hit, and mostly serve as a DH. No matter what, unless someone like Howie Kendrick or Placido Polanco, comes on to be mostly a DH and occasional infielder, the Yankees are forced to put a Pena/Nunez type player in the lineup anytime they rest Derek or Al.
If that's the case, then I'd rather see the playing time go to a dedicated DH. I agree with Larry in theory, that a lefty like Adam Dunn would hit 50 jacks in Yankee Stadium and fit perfectly at DH. In practice I'm not sure the Yankees go for the cost. I believe they should for the right player – like they did with Tex – I just don't think they will. Fortunately, there are players who can be had for a discount who would also do just fine as an every day DH.
I may have just talked myself into Konerko.
Matt,
I think you have some valid points, although as I mentioned, I don't think Dunn will be able to get all that much more than the $10M per he signed for a few years ago, and frankly, even at $13M I think he's worth it.
.384 career wOBAs don't grow on trees, and I'm not sure why you don't think he'd age gracefully — if anything, isn't the old baseball adage that guys with patience and power tend to age better than those primarily reliant on the speed game?
Dunn may be having a down year for him, but he's only going to be 31 next year — I'd have to think he has at least four more very productive years in him. Plus, the Yankees would probably only sign him for two of those years — no one's giving Adam Dunn a four-year deal.
I don't think we would have to worry about signing Dunn or Konerko to a long term deal. In my opinion, Dunn is the only one worth slightly over-paying for in this scenario for a 1 or 2 year deal. I would love to see an incentivized contract…"Beast 50 Homeruns and we'll throw you a cool $5MM" thats for me.
That's definitely a valid point Mike. Offensively productive SS aren't exactly growing on trees. Unfortunately they are going to have to fill those voids eventually(with potentially less productive players).
If they get a guy like Dunn, what will they do with the other aging vets when they no longer are serviceable at their respective positions? If they could manage a 1-2 year contract with a guy like that, it would be much more appealing to me. I don't think that's going to be the case though and I don't envision Jeter (and certainly not A-Rod) being out of the picture by then.
Although, you might be right about absolutely needing another bat. People take it for granted that Montero (or whoever) will fill Posada's offensive shoes when he steps down from the throne.
That's true Larry. I guess what I worry about is Dunn's strike out rates. As he looses a little more bat speed over the years and his power slips a bit, I wonder what will happen to the rest of his numbers. His walk rates might suffer if pitchers feel they can challenge him more. I guess in terms of money, I see him making about what Ortiz makes (which to your point) is in that 10-13MM neighboord.
A lot of my buddies are big Dunn advocates but I just can't get into him. I realize it's a bit biased (and maybe anecdotal to an extent), but when I look at him, I can't help but envision Jason Giambi during the tale end of his contract.
How come you don't think he's going to get a longer contract? He's pretty much going to be the biggest name on the market behind Crawford as a field player.
He may be able to get slightly more if he stays in the NL, where he can masquerade as a "fielder," but no one with any sense is going to play Dunn in the field any more than they absolutely have to. His advanced defensive metrics are horrendous, and for all his prodigious offensive abilities, he almost certainly gives a fair amount of his value back if you play him in the field.
Given that his value is essentially exclusively tied up in his bat, he'll have trouble breaking that $10-$13M upper level DH range that as you mentioned, Cookie Monster basically established a few years ago.
And given Dunn's difficulty in finding employment two years ago it seems highly unlikely that anyone would commit more than two years at a time to a DH.
Hmmm, well that's pretty sound reasoning. Yankee Brass is certainly into Dunn. Hopefully, they'll get him for a fair price and duration. Also, calling his defensive metrics horrendous is generous. Lol. On the positive side, he's the surest bet to hit 35+ HRs per season as a DH.
Matt, you hit the nail on the head with your very last sentence. "He's the surest bet to hit 35+ Hrs per season as a DH."
I'll sign up for that ALL DAY.
I have always been a Dunn advocate. Although we can make arguments against it, I do know this: as intelligent baseball fans, we love a guy who hits the longball and keeps his OBP at elite levels. I can take the K-rates as long as you can count on him being on base 40% of the time.
As for the argument about using the DH spot as a weigh station for older players, I just don't see that happening. Just like the team attempted this year with Nick Johnson, the ideal lineup has an every day DH who can masquerade as a 1B if the need arises. I can deal with a Pena/Nunez type bat in the lineup as long as Teix/Dunn/Jeter/Swisher/ARod or some combo thereof is there in support.
Now to the actual krux of the article: Dunn v. Konerko. Although I wouldn't boo him out of town, Konerko doesn't offer comparable value to Dunn. Forget the glove, because they are both non-assets in the field, and 1B has very little defensive bearing, Teixeira and Kotchman aside. The conversation, as Larry alluded, is completely tied to the offensive aspect. The bottom line is Dunn produces a higher OBP, and does it form the left side of the plate. Done and done.
I would give Dunn 3 years to be that lefty presence in the middle of the lineup, let ARod play third until he can't move, and Jeter will be in the outfield in no time.
Given Jorge Posada's inability to stay off the DL for the last few yrs and the continued development of Jesus Montero, perhaps the Yankees will consider carrying 3 catchers next year and having Cervelli take some ground balls at 1st and 3rd? If the Yankees want to keep Posada healthy for the last year of his deal, I think he's going to need to see a ton of time at DH next year.
Or maybe they'll sign someone like Dunn and just run Posada out there as the catcher until he gets hurt and then bring up Montero. Still, I think I'd like them to stay away from Crawford and make Cliff Lee their number one off season priority. if Pettitte retires, Lee becomes a must sign instead of a should sign.
~jamie
I think the Yankees should sign Crawford. Bring up Montero to replace Cerville. Find a good hitting utility guy. Resign Kearns and Thames. Use Gardner as a fourth outfielder or trade bait. Sign Lee and if Andy retires give Ivan Nova a shot at the fifth slot. Let's not forget Jorge A-Rod and Jeter will need at bats at the DH spot.
I think youre forgetting one thing…Dunn wants to play 1B…so does Konerko. Unless you overpay for Konerko hes going to go where he can play at 1B. I seriously doubt hes going to want to go to anywhere that he sits on the bench most of the time
Absolutely no way Konerko goes somewhere to play full time DH. He's actually a very good fielder at 1B (not a lot of range, but he catches every ball thrown anywhere near him – saves a ton of Alexei Ramirez errors).
How about they sign a DH player like Adam Dunn or Paul Konerko or Carlos Pena and then they sign Juan Uribe to be their utility guy instead of Pena?
sign crawford. move gardner to cf. granderson to rf.swisher to dh. we don't need any slow people on the bases or in the of. were does Dunn play when people need a break? what make you think he'll hit in the AL? better pitching,more strikeouts. stay away from him.
Dunn is strictly a DH, and that's a problem. With A-Rod likely needing 20-30 games at DH, Posada needing a bunch, and young Mr. Montero around, etc., the Yanks would be hard pressed to find 550 at-bats for Dunn. It would not make any sense for them to give $13mil to a part-time DH.
Dunn has absolutely no defensive value and would hurt the team either at 1B or in the OF.
A bold move would be to sign Victor Martinez. Not a good defensive C by any means, but he's viable behind the plate and would be a fine DH whenever he wasn't playing defense.
Ty Wigginton would be a great signing as a back-up for A-Rod, and he's viable at 2B and the OF corners, as well. Kearns has shown enough to warrant another contract as a 4th OF. Pena hits like a little leaguer, but is an excellent defensive SS/2B.
Find another LH bat and a LH reliever.
Sign Cliff Lee.
Is "walk rate" something that is actually tracked… you know an actual stat or is it something you just came out with on the fly? I ask because to achieve the "walk rate" you mentioned for Dunn you have to use BB/AB-WR. This doesn't seem quite right to me, it should be figured using Plate Appearances not At Bats.
Hey Mark,
Whoops, that's embarrassing. Looks like I was looking at Dunn's career K rate when I mentioned his walk rate.
Barry Bonds' career walk rate is 20.3%. Babe Ruth is 19.4% and Rickey Henderson's is 16.4%. A 33% career walk rate would probably mean you were the greatest player in baseball history.
Even so, Dunn's career walk rate is 16.3%; still a great number.