Same expression in every picture of him. And I like that. Courtesy of Getty Images
(The following is being syndicated from An A-Blog for A-Rod)
I’ve written about a pretty fair amount this season. I can’t help it, I think he’s an underrated pitcher and I’m fascinated by the way his season has gone down. Phelps’ 2012 campaign has been a continued series of fortunate opportunities created by unexpected circumstances affecting the rest of the pitching staff. He got a 25-man roster spot out of Spring Training because of ‘s shoulder injury; he got a lot of early chances to show what he could do thanks to some horrific early outings by and ; he got the chance to start because of ‘s unfathomably bad start to the season and the Yankees not being able to wait for any longer; he’s slowly worked his way up the leverage ladder out of the bullpen as other middle relievers have regressed. Now he’s got another chance to shine in a starting role because CC landed back on the DL. It’s been at the expense of others’ misfortune, but Phelps himself has had some pretty good situational luck this year.
And he’s made the most of that luck by pitching pretty damn well all season. He had a rough stretch from late April to early May, but since then he’s been very good in any role the Yankees have asked him to take on. After his solid 5-inning start against Texas on Monday, Phelps is rocking a 2.53/3.89/3.76 slash line for the year with a 9.32 K/9 rate in 57 innings pitched. He’s been at his best since coming back from his June MiL trip, allowing just 3 ER in 20.0 IP with a 25/6 K/BB ratio in the last 6 weeks, and has already shown an ability to think on the mound, learn from his mistakes, and adapt and make in-game adjustments depending on what hitters are trying to do against him.
With his Major League exposure this season and the almost complete disaster in the Triple-A rotation beneath him, Phelps has become the “next” homegrown Yankee pitching prospect. Given their recent poor history in that department and their future plans to cut payroll, that’s important for the Yankees and for Phelps. But how legitimate a prospect can we call Phelps based on just 57 Major League innings? I believe in him, but that belief is not universal across the Yankee fanbase or the blogosphere. Without trying to make a 57-inning sample size definitive, here’s some food for thought on Phelps’ early Yankee career and how it stacks up against the most recent group of homegrown starting pitching prospects and their first 57 career IP:
* David Phelps: 2.53 ERA/3.89 FIP, 1.16 WHIP, 9.32 K/9, 3.16 BB/9
* Ivan Nova: 5.21 ERA/4.25 FIP, 1.53 WHIP, 5.53 K/9, 4.11 BB/9
* Phil Hughes: 5.05 ERA/4.41 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 7.42 K/9, 3.79 BB/9
* : 5.53 ERA/4.92 FIP, 1.54 WHIP, 6.47 K/9, 5.37 BB/9
* : 1.58 ERA/2.52 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 11.37 K/9, 3.47 BB/9
Those numbers don’t just stand up to the competition, they stand well above almost all of it. Joba’s production came almost exclusively during his electric first run as a reliever, and with Nova, Hughes, and IPK accumulating their numbers almost exclusively as starters getting thrown into the mix, the argument can be made that as young pitchers put into high-pressure situations their early results are understandable. But can’t that same argument also be made for Phelps in relation to what he’s been asked to handle this season? Remember that we’re talking about a pitcher who’s had his role change 6 times in the season’s first 4 months, with the 7th change coming in this latest move back to CC’s rotation spot. Joba and Hughes struggled with the flip-flopping from starter to reliever, granted with some injuries sprinkled in. Phelps has gotten better as the season has progressed, even with the constant role changing, and has done it in a season where he wasn’t even supposed to open with the team out of camp. That has to say something about the kid.
While we’re on the topic of Phelps’ immeasurables, there’s also something about the way he works and carries himself on the mound that I like. Phelps barely shows any visible emotion on the mound, but he has a look of quiet focus and intensity on his face that actually reminds me of Pettitte**. He never looks rattled or even remotely bothered by anything that’s happening on the field. He’s also got some hair on his peaches and isn’t one to shy away from the moment. Not every pitcher can be confident enough to throw a 4-seamer on the inside corner to on a 3-1 pitch and hit his spot to get Cabrera to fly out, or completely fool with a lightning quick move to pick him off of 2nd base. Phelps did both in the span of 5 days. There’ no stat to measure a pitcher’s swagger, but Phelps has shown that he’s got some on multiple occasions, which is very encouraging to see from a rookie pitcher.
** (If you were curious, Andy’s first 57 career IP looked like this- 3.95 ERA/4.31 FIP, 1.49 WHIP, 4.89 K/9, 3.16 BB/9)
All of this adds up to place Phelps is in a very opportunistic position right now where he can start to carve out a better-defined and more important role on the Yankee staff. Nova and Hughes’ performances have been uneven lately, and both are likely to be at least included in discussions with the D-backs in the offseason if the Yanks are serious about acquiring . Andy almost assuredly is not coming back after this year, and could very well earn himself some lucrative contract offers from teams who skipped on him this year with the job he’s doing. The Yankees might need a cheap rotation option for next season, and they’ll certainly need another one for 2014. With what he’s already done this season and another strong outing in his next start before giving way to CC again, Phelps could force his way into an open spot.
It’s highly unlikely that he ends up becoming an All Star starting pitcher down the road, and 2 more spot starts should not get his name written into future rotations in permanent ink. But it’s hard to say that David Phelps’ 2012 season has been anything but a tremendous success, and I think it’s fair to say his ceiling has been raised. He’s managed to not only survive, but thrive in the Yankees’ up-and-down, here-and-there, starter-reliever mismanagement system of young pitchers, and shown enough stuff, pitching tools, and intestinal fortitude to be considered a serious option for future Yankee rotations. He’s seized every chance he’s gotten so far this year and made the most of them. Now he’s got another chance to show the Yankee brass that he deserves their attention.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
88 Responses to David Phelps’ Big Chance
Leave a Reply
-
TIQ IQ
Game thread?
Schiglke schmagel smumph, humph
These announcers are driving me crazy.
On that GB by Young. One says even if McGehee picked it up he would have had trouble getting Young. The other wondered why he didn’t use his glove because he had plenty of time!!!
Thank God Stewart’s catching Nova today. Martin gave up 4 runs in the past three days. Stewart will….opps….2 1st inning runs for Tex-ass
Now they have a graphic that states Jeter is 1 of 3 (three!)players with 17 straight seasons of 150+ hits. The other was Hank Aaron. Dumb, dumber, and dumbest.
Bring back Bill White!
I’m not feeling comfortable about Nova these days, and with this lineup the game could already be over.
They’ll score some runs. And Nova looked a little better in the 2nd. Holland gives up plenty of HRs. I think they said 22, that’s only 1 less than Nova.
He didn’t even look that bad in the first–infield single, bloop–but I’m worried about him in general.
I agree about the worry. Super Nova has become Scary Nova.
Glass houses a holes!! These idiots are talking about cheap HRs at Yankee stadium. Like it’s so difficult to hit them in Tex-ass.
After a Yankee hit a home run into the first row in right field at Yankee Stadium against the Red Sox, someone on overthemonster.com said the Stadium was “disgusting.” See, no one has ever hit a cheap home run at Fenway.
I hate talking about cheap HRs. And saying, damn, if we playing at Such & Such Stadium, that would have been an HR.
Dig Nova getting out of that! I’m impressed.
He surely did.
Now get some runs, and get the momentum.
Hits, hits, hits, hits
Hits, hits, hits, hits
Hittity Hits, Hittity Hits
To be sung to the SPAM song by Monty Python
That could be a hit.
It’s in there 10 times and they only got one! Damnity Damn
Quick inning for Nova. When are they going to start hitting? Third time through?
I missed the last play (I was getting some blackberries) but I didn’t like the way Nova walked off the field. Is anyone up in the pen?
Don’t know. I assume he’s being looked at by the trainer as we speak.
I do believe so.
Glad Nova’s back out there.
RANGERS’ TRIVIA QUESTION: Who holds the single season record for being HPB? I’d guess Palmero.
Don Baylor? Maybe Ron Hunt? They were both big HBP guys.
16 times in 2001…A-Rod
I don’t remember him getting hit by a lot of pitches.
Maybe you should start breaking out the insults next inning.
Ah, give it up. Girardi did.
What do you mean about Girardi?
Putting this lineup on the field. Looks like he’s willing to sacrifice the game.
Maybe a littlke. But Cano is hurting and I think Granderson needs the time off.
True, true. But without them, and Chavez, Swisher, and Martin, it’s not much of a lineup. In fact, it’s a bunch of bit-spitting hacks. You hear that, you bush leaguers! You all stink!
That’s good. An all encompassing insult.
The Epp-ster and Fibber prevent more damage. But the win probability is rather low.
Mo fo runs. Mo fo runs. We needs lots of mo fo runs.
Another run here would be big. Come on, Blowfish, get the bat out of your butt and hit the ball!
Third time through the order and insults = runs. And of course the announcers are bitching about how the hits weren’t hit hard.
Those announcers sound lame. Texas soft-blooped Nova to death in the 1st.
Oh, Blind Boy Jones. Can’t field, can’t hit.
Woo-hoo! They’re down. Now stomp on their necks.
Sweeeeet!!
Didn’t look like the sun had anything to do with that. Just bad fielding.
Michael Kay: “Holland’s opus is over.”
That’s pretty good.
Now they’re saying; Olt did a good job, the ball just jumped out of his glove! Can I kill them? Please?
Well, OK, but not too violently.
Not violently, but very, VERY slowly. I’ll make them watch the last two games of last year’s WS until they go crazy!
Perfect!
Stomp! Stomp! Stomp!
You have me thinking about Lucy making wine!!!!
A classic.
Dang.
I hate, hate I tell you, losing that lead.
It stinks.
Joba! Joba!
This would be a good time for Joba to suddenly become great.
1/2 great so far!
Holding my breath.
DAMN!!!
Damn damn damn damn damn damn damn damn damn
Hoover Dam, Grand Coulee Damn
I so wanted to see Joba do well. He’s struggling with his breaking pitches, which is to be expected. Wainwright got off to a bad start this year but seems to have turned it around. Girardi should use Joba whenever they have a big lead or are way behind just to get him plenty of work.
Yes, I don’t think I’d have brought Joba in at that point. He’s not ready yet. I hope he will be, but he isn’t.
Now the Yanks need a bounce back inning. Nice start Itchy.
Why don’t you try some insults this inning?
Are you sure you want to change a working strategy?
Raul you couldn’t hit this guy if he was throwing a beachball.
Jeter you are so un-clutch. No way you can hit this guy.
What are you doing? Afraid to hit, looking for a walk?
All right, the Rangers opened the door. They have to take advantage.
With Swish up? Are you kidding? He’ll swing for the fences and K!
Keep going, it worked with Jeter.
Swish swings like an old lady from the right side.
Gotta at least get one in.
Come on, Blowfish, forget that you haven’t been any good since ’09, and get some damn runs in!
Here comes Tex with the bases loaded. What a choke artist he is. In fact, he’s the DaVinci of choke artists.
Nice one. Good for a run!
pathetic!
Jones up? How can he hit when he keeps falling over in the field.
Aswan Dam
OK Joba, forget the fastball, or the breaking balls, throw a double play ball.
Even if they lose, at least they made it a game.
Winning 3 out 4 vs. Tex-ass is nothing to complain about.
True, but that won’t stop me.
WTF? Did Ibanez just roll that ball in?
At least get the tying run on base. Can you do that, wimps?
I think I’m going to bail Professor. Have a few chores to do. Chat at ya tomorrow night.