(Kim Klement-US PRESSWIRE)
has thus far been a very solid addition to the Yankees starting rotation. The 37-year-old right-hander, who spent the first four years of his Major League career in Los Angeles with the Dodgers, has made five starts on the young season. And though Kuroda is just 2-3 in those five starts, he has been arguably the most productive starter on the team. His 3.69 ERA leads all Yankee starters by nearly a run, the result of a home run rate far below the rates given up by the rest of the rotation.
So far, so good. And thank God. With out for the season and and sporting ERAs over 7.00, the acquisition of Kuroda is looking like a lot more than overkill. The second piece acquired on the same night as Pineda this past winter, Kuroda was seen as a luxury acquisition by some. Now, in the Yankees’ quest for a 28th title, Kuroda will likely be a major deciding factor.
Kuroda has pitched well. But five starts into the season, there is some reason to worry that age is catching up with the Japanese import. While some regression was to be expected, moving from the NL West to the AL East, Kuroda is now sporting a FIP and xFIP far above his career levels. After striking out 7.3 and 7.2 batters per nine innings in the past two seasons, respectively, Kuroda has just 20 strikeouts in his first 30.2 innings pitched. That’s a rate of 5.7 per nine innings. A normal drop for a pitcher making such a transition? Hardly. While the the pitcher in the National League provides strikeout fodder, the difference in K-rate between the National League in 2011 and American League in 2012 is, so far, just 0.2 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.
Kuroda has never been a strikeout pitcher, per se. His low walk rate and high groundball rates have kept his ERA firmly in the low-to-mid threes since joining the Dodgers in 2008. But even on those fronts, Kuroda has lost a step. Coming off a season in which he allowed well over a home run per nine innings – far above his career levels – some regression in that respect was expected. Kuroda’s groundball rate is up from last season, though still below his 2008-2010 levels. Moving from Dodger Stadium to Yankee Stadium hasn’t helped either. Kuroda has given up four home runs in five starts – two in one start at home, against the Minnesota Twins. Home runs hurt less without baserunners. But Kuroda’s walk rate, a career 2.1 per nine innings, sits just under 2.6 per nine. His strikeout to walk rate, generally int he threes and good indication of a pitchers ability to prevent baserunners, is just 2.2 on the season.
It’s early yet, but Kuroda’s deteriorating skill set does not look as much like a statistical fluke as a traditional aging pattern. Unlike Sabathia, among others, Kuroda does not suffer persistent slow Aprils. His caree ERA in the month is 3.19 and his velocity has generally been near his year-long average in the month. Yet so far this season, there is underlying underperformance. His fastball, which sat at 92.0 MPH last season, sits at 91.0 MPH so far this season, and he has thrown it about 5% less often. His breaking balls have similarly lost between 0.5 and 1.0 MPH. But Kuroda has thrown his slider 45% more frequently, his curveball twice as frequently. His swinging strike rate, around 10% for his career, is just above 8%. Kuroda is throwing fewer strikes, yet batters are making contact off more of his pitches, suggesting his stuff is suppressed and that Kuroda is less than willing to cave to hitters who are taking him deep at a career high rate.
Today is May 2nd, and May 2nd is always too early to get worried about anyone, let alone a pitcher with a 3.69 ERA. Yes, Kuroda has a history of strong starts, and yes, Kuroda is not an innings eater. The Yankees want to get what they can out of Kuroda in the innings he will give them, particularly early in the season. Even if Kuroda has lost a step, and given his age and the transition he’s made between divisions no one would be surprised, his skill set is still solid enough. His 3.97 xFIP is third among Yankees starters, behind and Sabathia. But his 4.11 SIERA, and his 5.11 tERA suggest that his ERA could be higher, perhaps much higher, and that lesser results could be forthcoming. Kuroda’s stuff, and his ability to come into the zone with great frequency, and successfully, bares watching going forward.
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I have faith in all of Brian Cashmans decisions
This article is totally biased. Kuroda is one of the few Yankees we don’t have to worry about now. I’m just glad Yankees got him.
Why? He’s 37. He’s pitched his entire career in the NL West. Of course we should be worried about him. Yes, he’s a good pitcher and was a good acquisition. He’s pitching decently right now and I’m not suggesting we need to jump ship. I’m suggesting he hasn’t been nearly as good as his ERA might indicate and that there’s potential for further slippage.
There are plenty of players we need to worry about *NOW* in the Yankees organization. Kuroda just pitched a great ball game against the division leader. Without him, the Yankees would have been swept at home. Writing negative stuff on Kuroda at this specific moment is depressing at best.
Unsupported success is not a sign of future unsupported success. Kuroda is striking out 5.7 batters per nine innings. He has a 4.27 FIP (over 5 outside of his start vs. Los Angeles’ anemic offense). If he keeps that up he’s not going to have many seven inning, one run performances against division rivals.
Will his strikeouts stay that low? Will his home runs stay that high? Will his FIP stay over four? Maybe not. We’re talking about a small sample size. Look a bit deeper and you’ll find that Kuroda’s velo is down, he’s not throwing as many strikes, and he’s getting hit harder. Now that’s a bit concerning.
The Yankees need Kuroda to pitch like a number two with the way the rotation has struggled. I think there’s reason to believe he wont do that. You can call that “negative.” I’ll call that “honest.”
Analyzing Kuroda’s stats on the season in their totality is essentially irrelevant due to his wildly varying degrees of success over a short period of time. Many of his uglier stats are attributed to one or two horrific starts. But with the small sample size, it has a much greater effect on his overall numbers. In fact, if we just remove Kuroda’s first start in Tampa, his K/BB ratio shifts from “just 2.2″ to a whopping 3.6. Naturally, due to his age, there will be concerns going forward in terms of his durability, but I see no reason to go out of the way to criticize the Yankees’ most solid pitcher at this juncture, with questionable statistical reinforcement nonetheless, when each member of the rest of the rotation has much more glaring issues to discuss. I understand that topic has already been discussed at length, but I still see no reason for this piece beyond inciting more issues to complain and worry about.
If you take out Kuroda’s first start in Tampa he still has a 6.2 strikeout rate on the season. That’s a full strikeout per nine below where he’s been in his past two seasons. His fastball is still sitting around 91 PMH. That’s full mile per hour less than it was last season. I suspect game by game breakdowns on swinging strike rate and so on would show smilar trends. And while he’s shown great control over the past five starts he’s also given up more than a home run per nine innings. My point? It wasn’t just his first start. His stuff is not as sharp.
But of course I could just as easily point that if you take out April 13th against the Angels – the second worst offense in the league – Kuroda has a 4.94 ERA and 5.10 FIP on the season with 14 strikeouts to 7 walks and 4 homers in 23.2 innings pitched. In all honesty, that’s the outlier. And that’s not the team we need Kuroda to beat. We need to Kuroda to beat Tampa in Tampa. If we’re going to throw out one start it should probably be the only dominant one against a terrible offensive ballclub.
I’m not saying Kuroda has been bad. I realize it’s early. I included all the necessary caveats as such. But he’s old and switching leagues and there’s a lot of risk there and so far, the ERA is misleading. His walks are up, strikeouts down, home runs way up, his fastball velocity is down, he’s getting far fewer swings and misses, he’s throwing fewer strikes and getting hit more often.
If pointing that out is anything but reasonable then I’m sorry. But to be clear, CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova have pitched far better than Kuroda this season. Kuroda has a lower ERA because of dumb luck. I can’t imagine anyone whose seen the starts and looked over the stat line could disagree. The Yankees need Kuroda to do what he’s doing now in terms of going deep into ball games and keeping the score low. I don’t think that holds quite at this level if his stuff is as suppressed as it appears. And I don’t think a low ERA insulates him from criticism.
First of all… good post, Steve.
Secondly, those large differences in his K rate, BB rate, etc. tell me he’s in for a correction. Being a year older, and 37, does tell me some regression is to be expected. As would a move from the NL to the AL. But the regression shouldn’t be that big, so I actually expect him to be a bit better. Meaning more along the lines of what we saw in his last two starts, rather than what we saw in his 1st or 3rd starts.
Being a year older at 37 can mean an extra run or two added to your ERA for the rest of your career. Ask Greg Maddux. It’s certainly possible what’s wrong with Kuroda corrects. We’re looking at a small sample size. But it’s not the kind of small sample size you can disregard. His stuff right now is not what it was last year. I’m not suggesting this is a permanent situation. I’m suggesting it might be. I’m suggesting that we need to look past the fact that his ERA is the best in the rotation and realize he hasn’t actually pitched that well this season, three strikeouts in seven innings will not work in the AL East for long, and that the way he’s pitching his ERA is not long for the sub-4.00 territory.
The way I see it, Kuroda has shown he is a successful pitcher in his career with the Dodgers. At 37 years old he moves from the NL West to the AL East and is relatively successful in his first five starts, only showing a few growing pains, but nothing seriously drastic. Also considering the fact that the rotation has been put under more pressure with consistently weak outings, Kuroda has actually been relatively impressive in his first five starts ever in the American League. His strikeouts have dipped but are manageable, his walks have risen but only slightly, he’s giving up more hits…but it’s just a small sample size, man.
Kuroda has been relatively successful through five starts. If he had a five ERA there’d be no reason to point out that he really isn’t pitching all that well. It would be obvious. But it hasn’t been obvious because he’s had a few starts in which he’s gone deep into games and gotten a lot of outs. That’s great. There are warning signs.
Look, a strikeout level of 5.7 per nine is not manageable. That’s not a minor growing pain. He wont succeed long term at that level in the American League East. A tERA over 5 is a sign that something might be wrong. 20% less frequent swinging strikes than his career average is a sign that something might be wrong.
We could dismiss that as simply a sample size issue for Kuroda. Maybe it is. A few at bats go a different way and maybe we don’t notice it. But his velocity is down on his four seamer and sinker. He’s not attacking hitters as often. He’s not fooling hitters as often. That’s the most base evaluation of a pitcher you’re going to get and it doesn’t require a tremendous sample size. Five starts into the season we know his stuff isn’t as sharp right now as it has been.
I think maybe we’re fooling ourselves if we try to pretend Kuroda’s been awesome just because he has a shiny ERA. I’m glad he’s kept the team in games, I’m glad he has a nice ERA, but I wouldn’t necessarily assume second starter performance going forward.