Yesterday in my article about and his problem with hard contact, I intimated that Nova’s high HR/FB% was a bit unlucky. He didn’t do me any favors by giving up two more homers, one to Jose Molina and one to , during his start last night. The one to Scott, though, was definitely a Yankee Stadium Special, so I went to Nova’s page on Hit Tracker to see if Nova was actually getting unlucky with the long ball, or if I was just being a bit of a Pollyanna.
He has now given up eight home runs on the year, leading to an 18.2 HR/FB%. If we go by the classifications on HTO, Nova’s given up one no doubt homer, the one to in Yankee Stadium lat week. Three homers have been classified as “plenty” while the remaining four have been dubbed “just enough” to get out. What might matter more, though, is how many of those homers would’ve gotten out in xx number of parks. Three of the homers Nova has given up would’ve gone out in fewer than 10 Major League parks, including last night’s homer surrendered to Scott (2). Let’s go batter-by-batter (starting with last night) and examine the homers, courtesy as always, of Brooks Baseball.
Jose Molina, 5/8:
Yeah, he left an 0-2 pitch right over the plate. Jose may not be the most powerful of hitters, but even he’s going to hit a homer on that pitch, especially if it’s a hanging slider.
Luke Scott, 5/8:
On this one, I can’t really blame Nova. He put the pitch in a pretty good spot and even Scott didn’t think it was out after he hit it.
Matt Weiters, 5/2:
Again, looks like a pretty good pitch, but Weiters was able to handle it and hit it out. For the record, HTO labeled this one as “plenty,” though it would’ve been out in only 7 parks.
Nick Markakis, 5/2:
Yeah, that location tells us all we need to know.
, 4/20:
Same as Markakis. When you leave the ball there, it’s going to go a long, long way. This is the only homer Nova’s given up on the road.
, 4/15:
Hitter’s count? Check. Bad location? Check. Homer? Check. Like the Ortiz shot, this one would’ve been out in all 30 parks.
, 4/15:
It’s a hitter’s count, but it’s not in an awful location. Tip your cap to Iannetta? Well, this one, we should note, would only get out of one park…the park that it did get out of.
Matt Weiters, 4/9:
Like many of the others, we see a hitter’s count and a bad pitch location. Granted, this one should’ve been 1-1 instead of 2-0, but that third pitch’s location is unforgivable. You can’t help but hit a homer on that.
So, has Nova gotten a bit unlucky on his homers? Possibly. Two homers came off of pretty good pitches, but the others were off of fat pitches that even the meekest of Major Leaguers could turn into extra bases. I highly doubt Nova’s going to give up homers at the rate he’s doing now (1.91 HR/9, 18.2 HR/FB%), but he’s got to watch his location in hitter’s counts. I understand the desire not to give in, but sometimes you need to swallow your pride and give up a walk instead of a hit.
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I really like this analysis of the situation, as it illustrates just how little margin for error there is for a pitcher at the big-league level. Five pitches, out of the *hundreds* he’s thrown this year have made an enormous difference in our perception of Nova this year vs. last year.
I understand the idea of sucking it up and giving the walk, but I honestly like Nova’s willingness to go after the hitters, and take the mistakes when they happen. I remain a big fan of Nova!