Despite Pineda injury, Yanks haven’t missed Montero

By On May 13, 2012 · 19 Comments · In Statistical Notes

opposite field vs Jim Johnson

Its become conventional wisdom to say that the Montero-Pineda swap from last January has been complete disaster for the Yanks. Brian Cashman himself wouldn’t argue the point, calling all second guessing of the deal fair game in a recent press conference. But so far in the 2012 season, on the field, the Yanks haven’t missed Jesus Montero one bit. Actually, they’ve received better production from the players they signed to take his ABs.

The whole reason why Jesus was traded was he lacked a position on the Yanks, and would be relegated to DH duties. As a righty bat, he was an even poorer fit since the Yanks had plans to DH Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter about once a week to keep their aging bodies strong. Since Jesus would have spent much of his time at DH had he stayed with the team, let’s compare his numbers to the production the Yanks have had from the DH spot this season:

Montero’s 

Split           G GS  PA  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
2012 Totals    30 30 121 116 11 31  5  0  5  17  0  1  3 24 .267 .281 .440 .721

Yankee DH’s

Split            G   PA  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
as DH            33 144 129 17  38  4  0  8  25  2  0 12 22  .295  .347  .512  .859

 

As you can see, the replacements Brian Cashman signed (Jones/Ibanez) have more than held the fort, while A-Rod and Jeter have contributed some good numbers as well. While its impossible to know how much effect the weekly half day off for Alex and Derek have had on their 2012 seasons, what we do know is that both have been healthy and productive thus far this year, exceptionally so in Jeter’s case. If they maintain that over the course of the full season, the added production you get from them as opposed to recent years has to be taken into consideration when assessing how much the team has missed Montero, if at all, for the 2012 campaign. Like most other things in life, Baseball doesn’t occur in a vacuum. Of course, the trade isn’t a 1 year deal. If Pineda doesn’t come back healthy and productive next year then we can look at it again and find a very different result. But calling the trade “a disaster” at this point simply doesn’t hold. The Yanks have been just fine, actually better off, without Montero thus far this season.

 

 
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19 Responses to Despite Pineda injury, Yanks haven’t missed Montero

  1. TheOneWhoKnocks says:
    May 13, 2012 at 8:36 am

    We haven’t missed his production at DH yet, and we might not this season (Ibanez/Jones is a great platoon) but Montero is a catcher that’s outproducing Martin. I know Martins value is more in his defense, but I think it’s really convenient that everyone is ignoring that Montero is a catcher and doing a serviceable job behind the plate actually too

    Reply
    • Steve Sciacco says:
      May 13, 2012 at 9:08 am

      What you said is fair, but he wouldn’t have been a Catcher on this team.

      Martin (and Stewart) also gets high marks for subtle things like pitch framing which is a new frontier of analysis. If you add that defensive production to their offense the gap is closed.

      Reply
      • Sharon Leder says:
        May 15, 2012 at 10:04 am

        If Martin is so great at pitch framing and other aspects of catching, why doesn’t CC want to pitch to him? Martin’s hitting is embarrassing. What team would keep a sub-.200 hitter in its line-up day after day. Martin is nothing but a good back-up, and even Stewart does a better job as back-up catcher. I have watched Montero catch 4-5 games this year and he has looked pretty good for a 22 year old. About a month ago Wedge had some interesting things to say about the frequently repeated “myth” that Montero can’t catch and will never be a good catcher. Basically he seemed to be saying that when people repeat something they heard enough times, they begin to believe it.

        Reply
    • Paul Knopick says:
      May 16, 2012 at 4:40 pm

      Serviceable is probably stretching it a bit. Montero never ever is going to be a good catcher. Do miss those pokes into the right field porch though.

      Reply
  2. TheOneWhoKnocks says:
    May 13, 2012 at 8:42 am

    Also I think everyone knows Monteros numbers would get a nice boost from hitting in a great lineup with a stadium perfect for his swing instead of the worst ballpark for RHs in the majors(safeco)

    Reply
    • Steve Sciacco says:
      May 13, 2012 at 9:17 am

      Again, fair point. But if we want to start micro analyzing we have to look at the Yanks as well. Would the Yanks have still signed Ibanez or Jones? What other affects does that have on the roster? Would Jeter wear down mid season? Would Alex get hurt? We’ll know more by the end of this year how the plan worked, but I just wanted to make a simple, direct point.

      One other thing, OBP has nothing to do with where you hit, and Montero’s is an abysmal .281. His plate discipline has always been suspect back to his days in the minors, and when pitchers know you don’t walk they will start throwing you crap at this level. That’s the main reason I wasn’t as high on him as others. He’ll need to correct that. He’s very young and there’s plenty of time, but that will make or break him as to whether he reaches his ceiling.

      Reply
  3. bornwithpinstripes says:
    May 13, 2012 at 9:05 am

    is martin worth 7mil more than montero,

    Reply
  4. says:
    May 13, 2012 at 9:52 am

    The only thing that ever bothered me was the Yankees, a team that didn’t seem to care about defense when they plopped the atrocious Francisco Cervelli behind the plate, decided that Montero just couldn’t catch.

    Reply
    • Steve Sciacco says:
      May 13, 2012 at 10:08 am

      Cervelli had his share of bonehead moments, but his poor numbers in throwing out baserunners were largely a function of him catching Burnett. AJ made no effort to hold runners, so he gets a pass from me on that.

      Reply
  5. luis says:
    May 13, 2012 at 11:25 am

    Sorry, but you are still missing the point. The trade was a bad one from the beginning for several reasons:

    1) We enhanced a strength (pitching depth) at the expense of a weakness (offense depth). We have an aging lineup and we have no potential impact bat above low A ball. Management 101, you never enhance at the expense of a weakness, it makes you vulnerable to attack. In this case, is even worse because of the new CBA and their public commitment to go below the 189 mil mark by 2014.

    2) You never trade a position bat for a pitcher younger than 25, even though the amount of talent exchanged was fair. This because the risk of injury is a lot higher on the pitching side.

    3)Pineda was an injury waiting to happen. His move to home plate was violent, he was better suited for a BP job. And he still had to develop a third pitch to navigate an MLB lineup more than one turn. Their scouting has been a mess.

    4)The fallacy of the rotating DH spot. Montero has proven to be able to catch at the MLB level, and he is outhitting both of our catching combo. He had a position, the management fell in to the chorus that he couldn’t do so. Big fail on this too.

    About the DH, it was not about the present but the future. What would you prefer at the DH spot, a declining star who no longer can play the field or a impact bat in his prime?.

    In my case i would rather have the impact bat than the aging star. The latter has to adjust to his diminished role, especially if the team is playing to win.

    5) Last but not least, instead of talking about Montero being needed or not. I think is more important to note that we never needed Pineda in the first place. And Shoulder injuries are very tricky, at this point in time, anything we get from him is gravy.

    Reply
    • Steve Sciacco says:
      May 13, 2012 at 11:50 am

      1)The MLB rotation at the time of the deal was CC, Nova, Garcia with Burnett and Hughes coming off horrendous 2011. You call that a strength? The AAA depth is anything but certain, that what 2nd division teams, not teams like the Yankees, rely on.

      2)That was compensated for by the inclusion of Campos.

      3)At the time of the deal, he had nothing but one elbow injury back in 09. Other than that, he’d been healthy. Not ‘an injury waiting to happen’ as you characterized.

      4)The problem with assessing catching defensively is that most of it falls between the numbers, though that is slowly changing. For now, you have to trust what scouts tell you, and the universally agreed that he would be at best a poor defender. That’s one thing on a team like Seattle that isn’t going anywhere, quite another on a playoff team like the Yanks. One miscue could cost you a playoff game, and ruin your season.

      5)See #1. We needed Pineda.

      Reply
  6. MattJ says:
    May 13, 2012 at 11:50 am

    The “disaster” is not in losing Montero’s bat in the current Yankee lineup, but losing Montero’s trade value for a top starting pitcher. Now that Montero was spent to get the injued Pineda, the diaster is the present hole in the rotation.

    Reply
    • Steve Sciacco says:
      May 13, 2012 at 11:56 am

      You mean the spot Pettitte is filling today? Again, as of today the trade can not be characterized as a disaster for the 2012 team. That may change down the line, but for now his loss is minimal, and frankly a net plus given how the DH spot is producing. I’d love to still have the trade chip as well, but without knowing who we’d use it on its hard to say how its impacting the current group.

      Reply
    • T.O. Chris says:
      May 13, 2012 at 6:24 pm

      So the argument for not trading Montero was in order to trade Montero?

      Reply
  7. Hawaii Dave says:
    May 13, 2012 at 8:32 pm

    Depends who you compare Montero to. Before the game, Montero led all rookies (or tied) in 5 or 6 offensive categories. So his break out seasons may be a a couple of years away. I say he is holding his own so far. Matt Kemps 1st full year was his 3rd time up from the minors and he hit 18 homers w 76 RBIs…so let’s see wussup as the years go by.

    Reply
  8. fuster says:
    May 13, 2012 at 10:24 pm

    not even 40 games in….so the article,while interesting, can’t be taken seriously.

    of course, Jones/Ibanez replace Montero by taking up two roster spots and cost 6 times as much!!!!!
    (if you really wanna be silly).

    Reply
  9. jacksprat says:
    May 14, 2012 at 4:28 pm

    Most of these comments entirely miss the key point–while Jones, Ibanez and even Martin are on the very back end of their careers, Montero is a young and highly skilled position player who will improve both offensively and defensively in 2013 and beyond. In 20-25 years, let’s look back on this incredibly stupid and lop-sided deal as Montero mashes his way to Cooperstown, while Yankee fans scratch their heads and ask: “Who on earth was Michael Pineda?”.

    Reply
  10. JBoskie says:
    May 15, 2012 at 10:02 am

    Steve I am a life long Yankee fan and I understand your points, but it also seems like you want to be right beyond all reasoning. You are comparing two past their prime players (and we are going to leave out the cost of paying them) to a young player who’s talent level has yet to be discovered. What happens next year? The team continues to get older. Pineda got shut down last September because of his arm, whereas the young pitcher (Noesi) we included in the trade did okay last year in spot starts. To close I am just going to say look at Tampa home grown and young ready to compete for years to come. Oh and Andy came back. Really seems like not such a wise trade to me….

    Reply
  11. Dennis says:
    May 16, 2012 at 5:38 pm

    When Yogi berra first came up, he was considered a defensive liability behind the plate. He got better and is enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Montero is only 22. If it was up to me, he would have been the catcher on the Yankees. If the scouts are correct about his hitting potential comparing him to Miguel Cabrera, he may end up in the Hall of Fame also.

    Reply

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