PITCHF/x Scouting Report: Félix Doubront

The Yankees take on the Red Sox’ left handed pitcher Félix Doubront this afternoon. The 24 year old Venezuelan hit the big leagues in 2010 for 3 starts and 9 relief appearances. In his first short 25.0 inning season he posted a 4.32 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 8.28 K/9, and 3.60 BB/9. Last year he returned to the minors, and for 70.1 innings in Triple A, put up a 4.22 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 7.81 K/9, and 3.33 BB/9. He was given some brief relief opportunity in 2011 as well, but with superstar pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lackey out for the season, the team has decided to start him in 2012. In his first two starts of this year, he’s given the Red Sox a 5.40 ERA, 11.70 K/9, and 3.60 BB/9. The surprising amount of strikeouts has caused him to have a low early FIP of 2.87 in 10.0 innings of work.

Pitching Repertoire
Doubront came up from the minors with 4 different pitches in his arsenal. The 92 mph four-seam fastball is thrown the majority of the time with some very nice rising action of around 10 inches, but very little horizontal action into left handed hitters. The 91 mph two-seamer is thrown a little more than 20% of the time, and has only about 2 inches less break than his four-seamer, but substantial movement into lefties. The 76 mph curveball is used only 13% of the time and has a slightly above average drop with little horizontal movement. The 84 mph changeup is his least used pitch at 10%. Keep in mind, he plans to change his selection in 2012, using the changeup more often and by throwing a cutter to righties, although the pitch has been less than impressive thus far.

The graph above plots the release points of each of his different pitch types. Keep in mind that FA and FF are both four-seam fastballs. Doubront uses a 3/4 arm angle as you can see above. The release point falls between 2 to 3 feet to the right of the mound, and 6 to 7 feet above it. As per usual, his curveball is release from the highest point as to create the highest downward plane. His lowest pitch is usually the two-seamer, which he only throws inches below the changeup and fastball. You can see a picture of Doubront’s release point and arm angle on the right.

Here we have a visualization of the breaks in his different pitches from the release point on the right to homeplate on the left. The top image shows a bird’s eye view. You can really only see two horizontal breaks here, that of his two-seamer in yellow, and the rest of his repertoire. The two-seamer has the biggest movement into the left handed hitters, while the four-seamer, changeup, and curveball have only a few inches of break. The bottom image shows the vertical break from the 1st or 3rd base side. The four-seamer obviously has the least break, with the two-seamer following right behind it. The changeup gets some decent break to it as you see it drops nicely close to homeplate. The curveball obviously has the biggest break.

Here we have the movement of each pitch based on a catcher’s perspective. His two-seamer moves into lefties by nearly 10 inches, and drops slightly more than the four-seamer. The other three pitches are relatively straight, although the each have impressive vertical movement. The four-seamer “rises” about 10 inches, the changeup drop has a lot of last minute movement, and the curveball drops over 8 inches the no-spin origin. While I think he can get away with less movement on the changeup, the four-seamer and curveball need horizontal movement to be effective.

Here we have the velocity of each pitch and the spin angle. The spin angle of the four-seam fastball is exceptionally high for a lefty, and where he should be sitting between 140-160 degrees, he’s almost touching 170. While this helps in putting spin on the ball that will fight the effects of gravity, its the reason why he can’t get horizontal movement. The two-seamer is a pretty standard pitch however, at 130 degrees. The changeup spin angle is very similar to the four-seamer at 164 degrees, which explains why the pitches are so similar horizontally. The curveball has an extreme angle as well, and the pitch is almost thrown at a perfect 360/0 degree point on average, although he’s no stranger to putting some angle on it from time to time.

Where He Throws It

This graph plots the locations of pitch types that he’s thrown to right handed hitters. Lacking a pitch with much movement in to righties, he doesn’t often try to jam them. I don’t see much method to his four-seam fastball other than throwing it anywhere along with the changeup, but the two-seamer is pretty clearly thrown away in the zone or down. Remember that the two-seamer has plenty of action that moves toward a left handed hitter, so a pitch away from a righty would get them chasing. The curveball also isn’t clustered here, but I would say there are more thrown away from the hitter. His selection against righties was 53.4% four-seamers, 22.7% two-seamers, 12.6% changeups, and 11.2% curveballs.

Against lefties you can see that he had more of a set plan with his locations. The four-seamer is thrown mostly away from the hitter, while the the two-seamer is thrown in to jam them. The changeup is thrown on a lot of corners, which shows that he has some very good control with it. It’s clear he’s willing to throw the curveball anywhere, but it looks like he throws it a little bit more often down and away. His selection against lefties is 59.9% four-seamer, 17.7% two-seamer, 15.3% curveball, and 7.2% changeup. It surprises me that he throws so few two-seamers into left handed hitters though.

When He Throws It

Felix Doubront’s Pitch Selection Against Righties

Count	Four-seam (R)	Two-seam (R)	Curveball (R)	Changeup (R)
3-0	83.4%	16.7%	0%	0%
3-1	90.9%	0%	0%	9.1%
2-0	56.3%	43.8%	0%	0%
2-1	47.8%	26.1%	4.3%	21.7%
1-0	54.3%	31.4%	2.9%	11.4%
0-0	64.6%	22.2%	5.1%	8.1%
1-1	39.4%	27.3%	6.1%	27.3%
0-1	31.9%	25.5%	21.3%	21.3%
3-2	80.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0%
2-2	52.1%	17.4%	17.4%	13.0%
1-2	60.0%	15.0%	20.0%	5.0%
0-2	32.0%	12.0%	44.0%	12.0%

Against righties, Doubront starts the count off with a fastball nearly 90% of the time, and its 65% four-seamers. As he falls behind in the count, he will continue to throw fastballs and mix them both until he relies on the four-seamer with 3 balls. With 1 strike, Doubront will break out his changeup more than 20% of the time. With 2 strikes he will mix in the curveball around 20% of the time, unless you’re 0-2, in which case he loves to throw it 44.4%. You can see that Doubront throws a lot of fastballs, even with 2 strikes, and that’s because he doesn’t have much of a put-away pitch against righties. His best pitch is curveball, which is the only one to break double digits with a 10.3% whiff rate.

Felix Doubront’s Pitch Selection Against Lefties

Count	Four-seam (L)	Two-seam (L)	Curveball (L)	Changeup (L)
3-0	100%	0%	0%	0%
3-1	75.0%	25.0%	0%	0%
2-0	76.9%	15.4%	0%	7.7%
2-1	68.7%	31.3%	0%	0%
1-0	62.9%	14.8%	7.4%	14.8%
0-0	80.6%	9.7%	4.8%	4.8%
1-1	29.2%	20.8%	41.7%	8.3%
0-1	44.8%	34.5%	6.9%	13.8%
3-2	66.6%	26.7%	6.7%	0%
2-2	37.5%	18.8%	31.3%	12.5%
1-2	37.5%	18.8%	43.8%	0%
0-2	41.2%	0%	47.1%	11.8%

Facing same side hitters, the left handed pitcher will start with a four-seamer 80.6% of the time. Now going back to the pitch locations against lefties, I think a hitter can go to the plate looking for a four-seamer down the middle or away and have a lot of luck hitting the first pitch. The selection here appears too predictable and linear. When falling behind in the count, he’ll continue throwing four-seamers. With strike 1 he’s finally start jamming lefties with two-seamer. With two-strikes he’ll breakout his curveball most of the time, which is strong with a 13.2% whiff rate. Although he throws it very infrequently, the changeup has an 11.1% whiff rate as well.

Results
Over his career, the southpaw has drawn flyballs and groundballs at a similar rate of 42.4% groundball, 38.1% flyball, and 19.4% linedrives. Although he’s never been exceptional striking players out in the minors, he’s done well in the majors with an 8.34 K/9, and this year he’s been very strong with an 11.70 K/9. He does have some clear control issues, posting a 4.37 BB/9 in his major leaguer career, but also posting similar numbers in the minors. Perhaps its due to small sample size, but he also has an odd platoon split. He holds righties to a terrible .295/.380/.438 triple slash, and lefties a .279/.342/.559 triple slash. While righties have gotten on base more often, lefties have hit him for a lot of power.

Against The Yankees
He’s faced the Yankees 4 times in his career as a reliever. In his short 4.2 innings of work he held them to a 3.86 ERA in 2010 and 2011. He did give up a homerun to Curtis Granderson though, and a single to Eric Chavez (despite the two homeruns, I doubt he’ll play) and Nick Swisher.

Prediction
Doubront has shown some signs of ridiculous strikeout potential, and shown signs that he belongs back in Triple A. Looking at the strikeout numbers this year, the majority of them are coming off younger hitters, and my bet is that they’re unaccustomed or surprised by his straight movement. The Yankees are an older and more experienced club than his previous opponents, the Rays and Blue Jays, and I don’t think they’ll run into many swings and misses. What does worry me is his ability to control his changeup, and if he can hit edges and corners with strong movement I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Yankees struggle. Thats a big if for a pitcher with control issues and facing a lineup notorious for being patient. The Yankees should hit Doubront, the bigger question now is, will Garcia fare any better?