The 2013 free agent market projects to be one of the richest in years. A team like the Yankees can find a plethora of young starting pitchers, outfielders, and catchers who could draw Cy Young or MVP votes. is on his way to free agency, which means the team will have yet another position to replace. Though one of their strongest organizational positions is catching, the team’s only immediate option in 2013 appears to be . News of an extension proposal to sheds evidence that the front office doesn’t view Romine as an everyday catcher. Assuming the Yankees would like a hand in offering pitchers like , , or a contract, and considering that team is looking at a budget in 2014, the free agent market is a tough place to find a catcher on a team friendly contracts, and their best option may be to offer Martin an extension now.
Matt Slocum / AP
Aside from resigning Martin in 2013, Miguel Montero, , and are projected to become free agents. While all may offer better offense and possibly better defense, the contract demands will be huge commitments in years and likely approach an average annual salary in the mid to upper teens. The current offer that Russell Martin is balking at is , and if he receives the raise that he wants, say $26 million, he could be close to $10 million cheaper than the other three catchers. A three year contract also allows prospects J.R. Murphy and Gary Sanchez enough time to develop into major league players, while a longer contract would likely mean they become trade fodder.
Montero, Molina, and Napoli averaged 4.7 fWAR in 2011, while Martin earned 3.1 fWAR. If this is any indication of each player going forward, it is hard to justify spending $10 million more a year with a riskier length commitment for an extra 1.6 fWAR. The money saved extending Martin could go to signing another free agent like , and prevent blocking catching prospects from a job in the next few years. As much as I want to see the Yankees buy the top player at every position in 2013, a team on a budget needs to cut corners in some areas, and Russell Martin is a quality player to have at an extension price. While it’s clear where I stand on this issue, it remains a controversial topic. What does TYA think of a possible extension?
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15 Responses to Russell Martin v. The Free Agent Market
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TIQ IQ
i really do not think the yankees will get too caught up in the 2012 free agent pitching class. thats why they traded for pineada
I’d be pretty surprised if Cole Hamels and Matt Cain don’t resign with the Phillies and Giants. If the Yankees were interested in Greinke, they would have tried to trade for him two years ago.
I’d like to see them bring Martin back but unless its a team friendly deal, why not wait until the end of the year when they’ll have a better timetable for Sanchez/Murphy and a better idea of whether Romine could handle the job.
Sanchez and Murphy are at least two years away a piece, and since neither one has played even a full season of high A ball and are catchers they are likely 3-4 years away. Re-signing Martin for 3 years isn’t going to effect either one of those two, the one it bumps is Romine. However I think Romine’s max upside is Martin of last year with less power. Martin is already that with more power, and has the chance to be even better with the bat going forward. If the decision is coming down to Romine or Martin it’s a no brainer for Martin in my opinion.
26 million for 3 years is a pretty team friendly deal, he could easily get that plus a 4th year on the open market. Especially if Yadier inks an extension before free agency. If Martin goes out and hit another 16-18 HRs, only this time gets his BA/OBP up to .270/.360 or so, which is reasonable to expect, his price is going to go up.
I hear you on Martin vs. Romine. I’m not a big Romine fan and if the Yankees view Martin as a better version of Romine’s ceiling, then it makes sense to extend him…eventually. I would just prefer the Yankees to wait to see what shakes out with the other potential free agents that may hit the open market.
At the end of the day the 3 catchers I see on the same tier as Martiin in next years free agent crop are, as mentioned above, Montero, Napoli, and Yadier. Yadier is probabky the best overall, depending on how much you value defense. Montero is the best bat with serviceable a defense, and Napoli is to me not a full time catcher.
I think to get the most out of Napoli you have to have him split time at catcher, DH, and first base, because his defense is terrible behind the plate. I think Napoli will get more than 3/26 and I’d rather have Martin over Napoli.
I think Yadier probably reaches an extension with St. Louis, they can’t afford to let him go at this point. If he does make it to free agency though I would put him above Martin, depending on how high the contract is. I’m not paying 18 million to Yadier Molina if someone goes crazy Nationals crazy and offers 16 or 17 AAV.
Montero is obviously the prize of the free agent class. A catcher who can probably hit 20 HRs in Yankee stadium, while hitting 6th in the batting order. He’s not Martin in the field but he isn’t bad either, which is what you want out of a hitting catcher. I think he could end up getting a Posada like deal if the market is big enough, I’m not sure he’s worth that much more than Martin.
It’ll depend on who else is out there. If Hamels or Greinke find their way to the open market, I think most people would prefer the relative bargain price of Martin if it meant adding another All-Star caliber arm. Lot’s of moving parts at this point, but not extending him leaves options open.
Even if Greinke is a free agent I don’t think the Yankees will care. They’ve shown once before that his SAD is at least on the table when discussing him, I doubt they’re shelling out a huge 6 or 7 year contract for Greinke when they already have Sabathia and Pineda.
If they are going to sign a Cain or Hamels that means they are already busting the 2014, 189 million plan, so they could go after Montero or Yadier and still sign Hamels or Cain. I still think though they are going to focus on offense first going forward, they have the pitching for now and don’t need new long term deals in the rotation right now.
I hope they go after offense too, but what if the offense isn’t available and Greinke is? I think they’d give him very strong consideration. The last time the Yankees had a shot at him was when they would have had to trade for him AND eventually extend him. They didn’t want to pay twice, but I think they’ll be more willing to pay once.
I don’t want to see the team spend money for spending monies sake. If they don’t want to pay for one of the catchers, I won’t be happy but I don’t want them to sign Greinke just because we have to go with Romine at catcher. If BJ Upton doesn’t fit the bill in center, and they don’t find a suitable replacement for the outfield hole when Nick leaves, that doesn’t mean Greinke is going to fill in for Swisher’s missing production.
Greinke is going to cake up on his next contract, it may be paying once but it’s an overpay for that once. After what CJ Wilson and Mark Buehrle got this offseason Greinke is going to be getting 18-20 million per season for 6-8 years, no thanks.
We aren’t in some desperate spot with our rotation, one where we’re so thin we need anyone who can throw 200 innings at the top of the rotation. So in that case I would only sign a contract like that for an elite starting pitcher like Halladay, Lee, Sabathia, Felix, or Verlander, and Greinke isn’t on that level in my mind. Greinke is a gamble, much more so than any of the names I listed above. I think 2009 skews how people look at Greinke, you can’t use that year when looking at what he will do going forward. That was a career year, one he probably never comes close to again. In the AL, especially the AL East, I think his upside is that of a 3.3-3.5 ERA. But we have no idea how he would handle when things get rough with the media. Say what you will about Burnett, and he deserves a lot of it, but he never broke from the media pressure. His every start became the focal point for everybody around the club in anyway. He didn’t perform but he never broke down as others have, could Greinke deal with that if he went into a serious slump? We won’t know until he signs and goes through it, I’d rather not find out.
We aren’t desperate for an arm so I hope they pass.
Well, I’m not necessarily advocating that they sign Greinke. Also, I don’t necessarily see a SP signing as an attempt to replace Swisher’s production.
You mentioned your concerns with Greinke in particular. Don’t you think that will keep his price down a bit? It’s not like he has Scott Boras as his agent – not yet at least.
I definitely prefer offense, I’ve said so numerous times, but I don’t want anything to do with B.J. Upton. If it came down to spending money on Upton or Greinke, I’d much rather have Greinke.
If you lose Swisher, sign Greinke, and then are forced to go with a Dickerson in RF we better hope Greinke pitches well enough to make up for the loss of production in RF.
No I don’t think that will keep his price down at all, the market says it won’t. Greinke has more upside than CJ Wilson who got 16 million per year to be a 4 starter, and Buehrle got 15 or 16 million AAV for simply throwing 200 innings per year. Based on that and the fact that many consider Greinke an ace, or potential ace, and he’ll be making 18-20 easy.
It makes no sense to say you’d spend on Greinke over Upton. Greinke will be making 18-20 million per year, Upton will likely make 30 million or less on an entire 5 or 6 year deal. If Swisher leaves there is no right field option in free agency, the best option is Andre Ethier and he’s a platoon player at this point with his splits. I don’t want to re-sign Nick for 4 or 5 years, I think his bat should hold up well enough due to walking but I don’t think he’s worth the extension. I’d almost take Upton for the defense that Gardner-Upton-Granderson would bring us alone. It’d easily be the best defensive outfield in all of baseball, plus Upton can hit 20 HRs and steal 40 bases out of the 8 hole in the lineup, with gold glove defense, and he’s still only 27. I think being in a veteran club house will help with whatever attitude or hustle problems he may or may not have. Plus if Kevin Long can work that magic on his swing and help him tap into some more of his talent, make a little more consistent contact, he could be a better than he has been with the Rays.
The options for the outfield next year are limited. We either re-sign Swisher, ink Ethier for RF, bring in Upton for CF, or make a trade.
Good argument on Greinke. I just wonder if the perception that Greinke’s SAD will cause problems will ultimately keep him in the $16 million range. Certainly a steep price either way. And again, I’m not necessarily advocating that they sign him.
I’m actually wondering if the Yankees should go ahead and re-sign Swisher. As you said, he’s got a skill set that ages well and 35-36 is younger than it used to be.
I’m not an agent but I think Upton will make more than that. $30 million over five or six years seems awfully friendly. Cespedes – while maybe not the best comp. – inked $36 mill over four years without even seeing a big league pitch. I have to believe Upton will make more than that for his CF defense and his established speed/power mix. However, I still don’t want the Yankees spending that money on him when he can’t even sniff the .800 OPS mark.
If the Yanks choose not to re-sign Swisher, a trade will be the best option. It might cost money AND players, but it will be a better value for the price.
As we’ve learned with players like Fielder, Werth, Alex, and so on when it comes to big contracts it only takes one team. One team to believe he is something they need, or to be desperate for something they hope he is. With his age, stuff, and 2009 season he’ll find himself in ace company paycheck wise, at least in my opinion that is.
I’m not so sure 35 is younger than it use to be. At the height of the steroid era this was true, but we are starting to see a regression back to normal aging again. I do believe Swisher on offense will hold up well for another 3-4 years, but I don’t know about his defense. His value is that he can hit with decent power, gets on base at an above average clip, and while he isn’t winning a gold glove he isn’t awful in RF. If one of those drops off, the power or defense, in any real way his value does too. Plus I would like to get younger if at all possible. If he’s taking a 3 year deal sign me up, if he wants 4 I’m less interested but would listen, but I wouldn’t give him a 5 year deal, not even a player option or vesting option for one.
You may be right on Upton. As I said with Greinke it only takes one, and he has age and untapped potential on his side. My thinking was Cespedes got paid on the hopes that he is a middle of the order guy, playing average to above average D in CF. With Upton, even if he does rise off his league average level of hitting over the past 3 years, he still won’t be hitting in the middle of the order. Defense and speed tend to not be paid as well in the league as slow, bad defending, power guys or power potentiaol guys. I think BJ can be had cheap enough because he has been so dissapointing and defense and speed are his calling card.
Can you imagine how many runs we’d save though with an outfield of Gardner-Upton-Granderson? The offense wouldn’t be great but it wouldn’t be the worst in the league either, but the defense would certainly be top 2 or 3 in all of baseball. Granderson’s arm is a little weak in RF but he has the bat for it.
Depending on who you could get a trade would be the best overall option. You could get younger and better than Swisher, but to do so will cost at minimum Banuelos and fans will burn us alive for even discussing that one right now. But if you can find a deal like the one that brought Matt Holliday to the Cards the team could be set in RF for a while. Justin Upton’s a pipe dream with how little he makes, and what he means to the team, but I’d drive Banuelos, Sanchez, and Betances to Arizona myself for that one.
Haha, if B.J. Upton is cheap enough, I won’t complain if the Yanks sign him. I’m also with you on a five year deal for Swisher – four is definitely the highest I go. Really, 3 with an option is the best bet, but teams always pay a little more than what fans determine as the “best bet”.
Depending on how some of the Yankees’ players develop this season, they could have plenty of fire power to make one big trade or maybe two “mid-level” trades without ruining their system. I’ll be right with you in the passenger seat if any pipe dream trade proposals get accepted.
They do but it’s because other owners up the price, or at least pretend like they have. I actually do think some team is going to give Swisher a 5 year deal, I wouldn’t be surprised if a couple teams did. If he really wants to stay he may have to take less years to do so.
I’m actually having a hard time coming up with realistic trade options. I’ll have to try and see who’s deals may be coming to and end within the next couple of years. Chris Young could actually be an option, you could trade for him and play him in RF when Swisher leaves, and if you let Grandy go then Young moves to CF and you find someone for RF. I heard he may lose some playing time in CF to Gerardo Parra. He’s still the starter but if they think they can replace him, combined with his low batting average and high strike out rates, he might be had at a reasonable price.
Young isn’t the perfect option but you could do worse. He’d be a good defensive player in RF, he’s still young, and he’ll give you 20-20 every year. He’s not a permanent answer in RF, but either way he doesn’t have to be. His contract runs through 2013 and he has an option year for 2014. He can replace both Swisher and Granderson on a short term basis over that time, then you decide if you want to let him leave or re-sign him when you see where our guys on the farm and the free agent market are at.