It’s finally here! Pitchers and Catchers report to spring training today, unofficially marking the end of the offseason and the beginning of the preseason. The Yankees will report to camp this year with some key personnel changes. In fact, this has been the busiest offseason for the team since the winter of 2008.
The most recent change, of course, is the long anticipated departure of . While the deal isn’t yet official, barring an unforeseen surprise A.J. has pitched his last game as a Yankee and his reign of terror in Pittsburgh is about to begin. The move essentially guarantees that will be given every opportunity to prove himself as the Yankees’ fifth starter. Failing that, expect the Bombers to move him to the bullpen and turn to veteran as an insurance option.
The Yankees also signed . Kuroda’s signing was somewhat under the radar, for a Yankee move, but he brings proven talent to the team. His presence allows the Yankees to ease some pressure off . Entering the 2011 postseason Nova was looked on to be the team’s second starter (thanks again A.J.). Ivan was up to the challenge, but that was a lot to ask of a pitcher still learning to harness his full potential. Hiroki allows the Yankees to make Nova the team’s fourth starter, a less demanding responsibility that will allow Nova to develop more freely.
The reason, of course, that Hiroki isn’t the Yankees second starter is because the team dealt Jesus Montero for , in the largest trade the Yankees have made in years. This trade was painful for many fans. Montero was big-league ready, and the team’s best offensive prospect since . However, this deal was the right move for the Yankees. The Yankees are stacked on offense, but are reliant on aging players whose value is fast disappearing. The team needed pitching (when is that not the case?) and will get lots of it from Pineda. Michael is a young, cost-controlled pitcher with Ace potential. He slots in as a perfect heir apparent to , a pitcher with a similar build and repertoire to Pineda, making him an ideal mentor. While there is always a risk that Pineda doesn’t live up to his potential, that is also true of Montero. The Yankees made the calculated decision that a young future staff Ace was more valuable to them than a future middle of the order bat. It was the right move.
In total, the Yankees come into spring training with their most complete rotation since 2010, when they also had five legitimate starters breaking camp. Unlike 2010, however, this season the Yankees come in with what figures to be the core of the rotation that they will have for several seasons. CC is pretty much locked up until he retires. We have to be optimistic and assume Pineda is legit until he proves otherwise. The same can be said for Ivan Nova, meaning that the success of Phil Hughes is the only thing that will keep the Yankees from having four starters whom they can keep around for a few seasons.
Furthermore, this is the most the team has transformed in the offseason since 2009, when Brian Cashman signed CC Sabathia, A.J. and . They’ve added two legitimate pitchers to what already figured to be one of baseball’s best offenses. As a result, barring injury, the Yankees will put the most complete team they’ve had on the field since 2010. None of this means all that much, of course. The 2010 Yankees featured a high octane offense and a full rotation but that wasn’t enough to get them back to the promised land. No one will know anything until the game is played, but no one can fault the Yankees either. The team with the best record in the American League got better on paper this winter. And now, we’re about a month way from seeing if they got better on the field as well.
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“While there is always a risk that Pineda doesn’t live up to his potential, that is also true of Montero.”
Yes, but the risk is quite a bit greater in the case of Pineda because pitchers can easily get arm problems. Also, Montero has a higher possible upside than Miguel Cabrera, namely Mike Piazza. If Montero develops into an adequate defensive catcher, his hitting ability could make him a Hall of Famer.
OTOH for 2012, Montero has limited value to the Yanks. He wouldn’t be the regular catcher and he wouldn’t be needed to DH every single day. Looking to 2013 and beyond, there’s a good chance that ARod will be the DH for much of the time and Teix the regular 1B. That means that if Montero doesn’t develop into an adequate fielding catcher, he’d have limited value to the Yanks.
My bottom line is that the Yanks were right to trade Montero, and Pineda was a good return, even though I think it’s likely that Montero will have a bigger career, say in terms of WAR.
ill say that there is almost no chance montero out wars pineda barring injury.
MOntero is NOT going to be an adequate catcher. There isnt one scouting report ever that says he will even be a catcher PERIOD.
IF he is a DH it is extremely hard to put up more than 3.5 war in even an outstanding season. I like MOntero I think he’ll hit alot. (Miguel Cabrera is stretching quite a bit) but even so I don’t see how you can not trade a DH for a 23 year old potential ace with a great make up.
Having Posada was as much of tolerating a below average defensive catcher as I want to see in my lifetime. IMHO Montero would have been more of the same!
If Sherman’s article is true, then I really don’t see any point in anyone other than Garcia getting the 5th spot. I think he should have it anyway, but forgetting that for a moment: if Hughes pitches really well, are the Yankees so concerned about finances that they would trade him anyway? If so, then I miss the good old days. Whose to say that any of the other kids coming up behind him, whether Betances or Banuelos or lower ceiling prospects will succeed? If he improves significantly, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be a part of their future.
Trading Hughes would be less about finances and more about his 5 year Yankee career. If he was a solid stalwart of the rotation, they’d pay him. But he hasn’t been, and he’s had 5 years to prove himself.
I missed the article about Garcia. If he’s a shoo-in for the 5th starters role that would be a real surprise. There’s zero long term value to the team from giving him the job, but I’ve seen stranger things happen.
Regarding Montero and Pineda, WAR won’t favor Montero unless he hits like Miguel Cabrera (a distinct possibility). Defense matters in overall WAR values. If he’s a DH it will bring his value down.
Odds overwhelmingly favor Pineda making a larger contribution than Montero next year. I think the real question is what happens in, say, three years.
I’ve read conflicting things about the #5 spot. One reporter says it’s Hughes’ job to lose, the next one says they’re leaning towards Garcia.
I don’t see how it’s a distinct possibilty he hits like Miguel Cabrera. Miguel is the best right handed bat in baseball, depending on how you feel about Pujols going forward. To say it’s even close to likely that Montero will becomes a .300/.400 guy going forward is stretching it with his walk rates. Carlos Lee is also a .300, 30, 100 guy but I don’t see anyone jumping out and saying he’s likely to be the next Carlos Lee, it’s always Cabrera, Edgar Martinez, Piazza and Manny Ramirez. This seems a bit much doesn’t it? The guy has less than a third of the season in the bigs and all anyone wants to do is compare him to HOF hitters. The most likely outcome if all goes well for him is a DH who WARs close to David Ortiz, which would be an awesome career but not a HOF one, and certainly not more valuable than even a solid number 2 starter.
I could see Freddy Garcia turning into the Yankee version of Tim Wakefield. A perpetual 4M option that keeps getting renewed as veteran insurance for one of the rotation spots. This year it’s Hughes, next year Betances, then Banuelos, then Campos, etc, etc.