ManBan is Underrated

By On February 2, 2012 · 19 Comments · In Prospects

Manuel Banuelos, now our undisputed #1 prospect, is underrated. I’m not sure that I’d go as far as , but I might put him in the low 20s. It’s hard to believe that, just a year after being considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball, his 2011 season sucked the excitement out of fans and commentators as much as it did.

Let’s review: Banuelos pitched 129 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. He struck out a very healthy 125 batters (8.7 K/9), but issued a very unhealthy 71 walks (4.9 BB/9). He also allowed just 0.6 HR/9 and 9.0 H/9, to go along with an ERA of 3.75 and relatively high BABIP of .332.

Those numbers aren’t all pretty, but they aren’t weak either. But they don’t include the most important number: Banuelos was 20 years old for the full season, and does not turn 21 until March. He was playing in the Eastern League, where the average age of players is 24.3 years old, and the International League, where the average age of players is 26.7. Banuelos is at an age where college prospects are preparing for their junior year, and are about to get drafted. After being drafted, the really good ones may end up in High-A, but most will find themselves in short-season ball.

We should expect Banuelos to struggle at that level at his age. He certainly did struggle – he had pitch count issues, saw his K/9 dip a little bit over 2010, and issued tons of walks. But you know what? He didn’t get creamed. He didn’t allow a ton of hits or home runs. He stayed healthy all season, pitching a career high in innings. Banuelos is set up to succeed in Triple-A next season, and to possibly join the Yankees late in the year.

As much as Banuelos’ reputation, mostly due to sterling comments about makeup and poise, is as a command and control pitcher, the truth is he has always issued his share of walks. His career rate is 3.6 BB/9, and even in his breakout 2010 campaign he walked 3.5/9. He makes up for it by striking batters out. Tons and tons of batters. That’s where he’s going to be successful. They are different body types, but think about how Jon Lester succeeds. That’s the kind of player that we’re talking about. He’s not a #3 starter prospect, as I’ve seen people suggest, but a guy who could very easily put it all together and be a top-flight pitcher. And he’s got the skills to be effective even if everything doesn’t go right – in that case as a #3 starting pitcher.

Bet big on Banuelos.

Tagged with:
 
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
Delicious Digg

19 Responses to ManBan is Underrated

  1. T.O. Chris says:
    February 2, 2012 at 6:24 pm

    I think comparing him to Lester is a little off. Lester is a full blown ace, with talent in the top handful of starters in all of baseball. Banuelos is talented, but issues a lot of walks and he doesn’t limit hits. He’s likely going to be a guy who struggles in the WHIP departments, one who has to limit damage by stranding base runners with the K’s. In short he’s Gio Gonzalez. A very talented pitcher who could become a number 2 starter in anyone rotations, but whom as of today has only established himself by the numbers as a number 3 starter. To me the two are almost idential in repetoire, body type, and even minor league development is very similar.

    Banuelos is no ace. I’ve never seen that coming from him, but he could be a very solid number 3 starter, with upside of a number 2 depending on how far the control develops. If you’re betting on him being the kind of guy who can lead a rotation I think you’re taking the wrong gamble.

    Reply
    • SDM says:
      February 2, 2012 at 6:47 pm

      Banuelos is also a very big GB pitcher, its very likely that with better defense his number of hits will fall

      Reply
      • T.O. Chris says:
        February 2, 2012 at 7:05 pm

        Gio Gonzalez is a fantastic GB pitcher. In fact in his two full seasons in the league he has approached a 50% ground ball percentage, 49.3% in 2012 and 47.5% last season. They are very very similar pitchers and Gonzalez has been worth 3 WAR each of the last two seasons, posting FIP’s in the 3.6-3.7 range. If Banuelos can do that in his first two full seasons with the Yankees I will literally jump for joy.

        Watching some of his games in Trenton last year the defense certainly let him down at times, but he gives up close to 5 BB/9 and over 9 H/9, I don’t expect a major league defensive unit to suddenly drop these numbers to 2 BB/9 and 7 H/9. He’ll have a better defense behind him, though Jeter is limited at SS and Alex will only get older at 3B, but he will also have much better hitters 1-9 in the lineup at the plate.

        There’s nothing wrong with Banuelos is, he has a very high floor, but I don’t see an ace. Saying someone is a number 3 with the upside of a number 2 depending on control is a compliment, not an insult.

        Reply
        • SDM says:
          February 2, 2012 at 8:15 pm

          A guy who gets near 50% gb, is going to give up his share of hits, its the nature of the beast. His walk problems are still a recent occurrence but since the problem was a very large spike it heavily skews his walk numbers because prior to September of 2010, his career walk rate was under 3.

          I agree Banuelos floor is a Number 3, but in my eyes any player that is capable of striking out a healthy number of batters, gets a well above average number of GB’s and has a history of good control, has an Ace caliber ceiling.

          (I have often heard Banuelos has a tendency to nibble which doesn’t help his walks or pitch efficiency but once again one would expect that to improve if he gets it back he has a very good chance of becoming a #1, if it shrinks but stays around the low threes I see him as a good #2, and if it doesn’t improve beyond the mid three’s he’ll be a #3)

          Reply
          • T.O. Chris says:
            February 2, 2012 at 10:00 pm

            I never said his floor was of a number 3 pitcher. His floor is of a closer, as his size could lead to injury problems and an inability to stay healthy for the course of a full season. It’s a high floor because I do see him being effective pitcher at the major league level, Betances on the other hand has plenty of question that about even becoming that. Though Dellin has a higher ceiling than Banuelos.

            Again I see Banuelos an almost carbon copy of Gio Gonzalez. They show remarkabley similar stats to this point in the minor leagues, they have similar body types, and very similar stuff/repetoire. This doesn’t mean they will be the exact same pitcher, but I do believe he is a very good analogy for what I envision Banuelos becoming. I don’t see ace upside in that. Gio is a very good number, who could become a number 2 pitcher with improved control but he is never going to be a Cliff Lee or CC Sabathia type ace.

            It may be that you have a different view of the term “ace” than me. The term is thrown around way too casually for my liking and people tend to describe whatever the best pitcher is in every rotation as their “teams ace”. There aren’t 30 aces in the major leagues. Describing Wandy Rodriguez as “Houston’s ace” as I’ve heard countless times just taints the whole idea of an ace pitcher. So in that sense I don’t see Banuelos with ace upside, though I suppose he could be a teams best pitcher one day.

            Reply
            • EJ Fagan says:
              February 2, 2012 at 10:05 pm

              Gio Gonzalez was the 8th best pitcher in the AL by WAR last season, so I’d say he’s a pretty solid #1 starter.

              Reply
              • T.O. Chris says:
                February 2, 2012 at 10:31 pm

                By that logic Michael Pineda was a number 1 starter last season. In 202 innings Gio posted a 3.5 WAR, Pineda in comparison posted a 3.4 WAR in 171 innings. He led the league in walks over the past two seasons, posting a 4.05 BB/9 mark last season. He is a very talented pitcher, he is however no number 1.

              • T.O. Chris says:
                February 2, 2012 at 10:40 pm

                Also Gio was helped by playing half his games in Oakland. On the road he walked 4.40 batter per 9 and he had a 3.62 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 3.99 xFIP on the road. Against better lineups he was really abused last year, Texas basically bent him over every time he played them.

              • EJ Fagan says:
                February 2, 2012 at 10:55 pm

                By that logic, Michael Pineda’ 3.4 (b)WAR makes much worse than Gio Gonzalez, and therefore not a #1 starter. This isn’t rocket science.

                And let’s not slice the numbers into small samples and pretend that Oakland is somehow a grand pitchers park. We’re talking about a .947 park factor – 20th in the league. Oakland can’t hit, so it looks worse.

                I definitely agree that Banuelos has a similar kind of skillset, although I maintain that ManBan has potential to keep his BB/9 in the 3s in the majors.

              • T.O. Chris says:
                February 2, 2012 at 11:17 pm

                My point is that neither one is a number 1 starter and simply going by WAR to try and prove one is is silly. WAR isn’t a be all end all stat, and even if it was posting a 3.5 WAR tends to fall into the number 2 pitcher category anyway. As most people would consider the cut off on a number 1 starter a 4+ WAR.

                Also looking at his career splits I would say it’s much more than chopping numbers down to small sample sizes.

                Away- 262.1 IP 4.32 ERA, 3.97 FIP

                Home- 273.0 IP 3.56 ERA, 4.15 FIP

                He maintains a similar FIP both on the road and home but there is a huge, almost full run difference, seperation in his home and road ERA’s. Clearly Oakland is a pitcher’s park, and one that suits Gio very well in a way road parks don’t.

                Condescending remark about rocket science haha.

            • SDM says:
              February 3, 2012 at 12:41 am

              I know what an Ace is, so don’t patronize me. An Ace is one of the 10-15 best pitchers in the World who are capable of contending for a Cy Young on a regular basis, I believe Banuelos has that type of potential; you don’t and that’s fine and whether he reaches that ceiling is a whole different discussion.

              Reply
    • EJ Fagan says:
      February 2, 2012 at 8:43 pm

      Lester’s an example of a lefty who has great strikeout stuff, but issues his share of walks. He gets by through preventing especially hard contact, and not putting extra baserunners on. Both Banuelos and Lester had control issues in the minor leagues, and fairly similar progressions, if you account for Banuelos signing younger.

      Lester serves as an example that you don’t need to be have a 2.2 BB/9 rate to be an ace. That’s really all I meant by that.

      Reply
      • T.O. Chris says:
        February 2, 2012 at 10:14 pm

        Lester also had cancer and pitched through it which throws off his numbers somewhat, which is why in 2008 he struckout less than 7 batters per 9. Lester is also 6-4 240 pounds and averaging 93.5 MPH on his fastball in 2009 and 2010. Banuelos is no where near as well built and from all reports his velocity is more in the 91-92 MPH range on average. Lester has also done a fine job of limiting hits in his career, so even when his walks went up from 2.8 to 3+ his WHIP still stayed in the 1.2 range. In fact even in the minors he never approached giving up the ammount of hits Banuelos has, never giving up more than 8.7 H/9 in any season (A ball), and surrendering under 7 H/9 in his full season of AA. They just aren’t very comparable even if you are just trying to set a precident.

        Reply
        • SDM says:
          February 3, 2012 at 12:35 am

          Lester’s minor league whip is 1.307 the only time it dipped below that was when he was that one year in AA. Lester’s minor league h/9 was 8.0 and he has never had a season in the minors where his bb/9 dipped below 3.5

          Banuelos career whip is 1.277 his career h/9 is 7.9 the his hits per 9 has only been at nine or up this year, the previous high was 8.8 a full .1 higher than Lester’s highest

          What makes Banuelos special is that what he’s done so far does not compare to many pitchers, he’s much younger than Gio and Lester were when they reached AAA.

          Reply
  2. Domenic Lanza says:
    February 2, 2012 at 7:13 pm

    The opinions of most of the “name” analysts – Sickels, Goldstein, Manuel, Mayo, Piliere – haven’t really changed, and I think it’s quite fair to stand pat on Banuelos’ ratings at this time.

    That Banuelos was able to maintain his uptick in velocity through the entirety of 2011 is fantastic, to be sure, and his strikeout and groundball rates were above-average to elite at both levels. However, there are fair reasons to temper our expectations a bit. Banuelos’ strikeout rates have dropped as he moved from Tampa to Trenton to Scranton, and that has been matched by sizable increases in walk rates. In chart form:

    A-: 2.3 BB/9, 8.7 K/9
    A+: 2.8 BB/9, 12.7 K/9
    AA: 3.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9
    AAA: 5.0 BB/9, 8.1 K/9

    Yes, he’s very young – that’s an important consideration. Yes, we’re dealing with small sample sizes and injury-shortened seasons – another important consideration. But there have been definite growing pains, and it is disconcerting to see walks and strikeouts trend in such a direction.

    This is an important consolidation season. Hopefully, he’ll avoid the non-baseball injuries that have hindered him a bit, and work in a full-strength season at Scranton. And again, my opinion on him really hasn’t changed – he profiles as an excellent third starter or a solid two.

    Reply
    • SDM says:
      February 2, 2012 at 8:17 pm

      Well he only has (had) one appendix, and blisters aren’t that big a problem.

      Reply
    • EJ Fagan says:
      February 2, 2012 at 8:47 pm

      Given his development path, I think those deteriorating K/BB rates are exactly what we should expect. Banuelos was rushed through a minor league level at a very young age due to a non-baseball injury.

      Disaggregating his numbers by level, instead of by season, actually makes Banuelos look much better. At the end of his (injury-shortened) age-19 season and the beginning of his age-20 season, Banuelos pulled off a 9.2 K/9 at Double-A, with a doable walk rate. He struggled when promoted to Triple-A, but that’s to be expected all things considered.

      He’s not a finished product yet.

      Reply
      • T.O. Chris says:
        February 2, 2012 at 10:25 pm

        What numbers are you looking at? This year in AA Banuelos only had a 8.87 K/9 rate and a 4.91 BB/9, which I wouldn’t consider a doable rate. If you’re talking 2010 he actually struck out more, but that’s only 15 innings which isn’t a sample size worth looking at. He’s never actually struckout 9 K/9 at any level, though that is his minor league career total K/9.

        He’s certainly not a finished product, however trying to act like a number 3 projection is underrating him is a little bit over the top in my opinion. He has a slightly higher attainable ceiling but all in all that’s a pretty fair assesment of his ability.

        Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Set your Twitter account name in your settings to use the TwitterBar Section.