With or without Yu?
As the deadline for placing a bid on Japanese sensation Yu Darvish draws near, increasingly we are hearing various Yankee beat reporters downplaying the idea that the Yanks will be aggressive in pursuing him. Newsday’s Eric Boland says there are elements for and against bidding on Darvish, and that the final decision will rest with Hal Stienbrenner. Joel Sherman wrote earlier this week that he doubts the Yanks will even place a bid. (TYA fave) Marc Carig followed up with a similar piece on Thursday. In his latest post at ESPN-NY Wallace Matthews speculates that after speaking to sources in the Yankee brass, he thinks neither Darvish or Cespedes will be Yankees next year.
While I respect the Yankee beat writers, everything I’ve seen has been their interpretation of off the record remarks from unnamed Yankee officials. I’ve yet to read a single quote that leads me to believe the Yanks are out or not all that interested. One should understand that due to the unique nature of the Japanese posting system, it behooves the Yanks to downplay their interest publicly even if privately they’re drooling over him. Think about it. If the Yanks told the world that they love him, it would send a signal to the Blue Jays and Rangers to be more aggressive with their bids. This isn’t free agency where agents tell you what other teams are offering. It’s a blind bidding process, so one has to make a value judgement on the player AND try to gauge where other bidders will be. Anything that potentially holds down other bids could aid you in landing him. Keep in mind what I reported that Brian Cashman said at last year’s WFAN Breakfast-“Everything I say (publicly) has meaning. They’re like bread crumbs leading you in the direction of where I stand on a player.” With that in mind, let’s look at the recent Yankee quotes on Darvish:
Brian Cashman-(12/8)
“I think with anything else, you learn over time. I think we’re more prepared today than we have been in the past”
Some have read that to mean the Igawa experience led the Yanks to understand just how difficult the transition can be. But the Yanks are reported to have scouted Darvish far more extensively than Igawa, having scouts watching him for the past 3 years. I think when Cashman says they are more prepared, he’s saying they have much more information this time.
“Timing is everything, when people become available,” Cashman said. “Sometimes if you like somebody a great deal, it doesn’t necessarily mean you’re going to be in a position to participate. Obviously, he’s extremely talented, so if he’s going to get posted and stuff, it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.”
As is so often the case with Brian, this can be read two ways. Pro-Darvish fans can say his timing is right in a weak FA market and the Yanks having an obvious need, while anti-Darvish folks will say the Yanks have repeatedly claimed they don’t have a lot of room in their budget.
Hal Stienbrenner-“Every person is different, every player is different,” the Yanks’ Managing General Partner said. “We’re going to look at every single one, we’re going to look at every single option and we’re going to analyze it. We look at each person as an individual, and that” — previously failures with Japanese pitchers — “is not going to be a factor, at least not with me.”
That should take care of the ‘Yanks failed on Igawa’ crowd. It won’t, but it should.
Let me make something clear. I don’t intend this piece to be tossing crumbs to those who are pinning their hopes on the Yanks landing the star Japanese import. I happen to be in the camp that has enormous doubts about the prudence of spending 100M (120M+ after luxury taxes) on what is effectively a college pitcher. Too many times we’ve seen can’t miss prospects struggle at the major league level after dominating when facing lesser competition. We often see the Yanks being hesitant on pitchers transitioning from the NL West to the AL East, so how can one assume Darvish’s transition from the NPB will be successful? If the Yanks do make an aggressive bid on Darvish and land him, I will have to trust the judgement of talent evaluators who have been scouting him for the past 3 years. But if that day comes, I will enter the Yu Darvish experience with my eyes wide open. We’ve seen this Broadway show before, sometimes garnering rave reviews and other times being a total flop.
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Yu is not effectively a college pitcher. IN the least the Japan league translates to AAA while some say it is more like AAAA. What would the value of a minor leaguer be who put up a sub 2 era with more then a strikeout an inning in AAA and then somehow became a free agent? Basically take Matt Moore and put him on the open market…..
Most of the estimates I’ve seen have the level of competition at AA, and annual defections of top talent lead me to believe those to be more accurate.
A recent post by on this site said it was somewhere between MLB and AAA;
https://yankeeanalysts.com/2011/10/guest-post-an-informed-take-on-yu-darvish-35709
Using my own eyes are what has happened in the past I would say it depends on the player. Ichiro topped out at 372 in the US and 385 in japan, not much of a drop off. Irabu on the other hand was pretty much a bust in the US after dominating in Japan.
The Matt Moore comparison doesn’t work because we’ve seen him dominate a regular season game against the Yankees and a postseason game against the Rangers.
The more apt comparison would be someone like Mike Montgomery, who wouldn’t get close to 6 years 60 million on the open market. Let alone 100 million in total dollars.
Two things about your $120 million figure.
1) Posting fees don’t go toward the luxury tax. Which is a strong incentive for the Yankees to participate in this system (most of the “salary” toward a player is LT exempt, and NY has nothing but money).
2) If the Yankees do sign him but work to constrain their payroll in other ways, only the first few years would be over the LT. If he’s paid say 6/75 after posting, 45 of that might be under the LT.
This article was very good until the end for 2 reasons:
1. College pitcher? The NPB is compared to a AAAA league, higher than any minor league but below the majors. The level of college play is probably somewhere in between high A and AA (because of the number of kids fresh out of high school in the lowest levels. This is an absurd statement.
2. It will not be $120 million after luxury tax, that’s ridiculous. Of the $100 million it takes to get Darvish, $50 million would likely go into the posting fee, which is not a part of payroll and therefore not subject to luxury tax. Assuming the Yankees cut payroll to $189 million by 2014 (AJ and Soriano off the books takes care of this), the luxury tax drops to 17.5%. At this rate, over the course of Darvish’s contract, it will only cost $8.75 million in taxes. Even with the higher rate in his 2 seasons before the drop, it would barely total to $10 million.
I think you have to assume the Yankees will be over the threshold in 2014. The chances of them getting below 189 million are pretty slim.
No you really don’t…
Igawa ($4 million) and Posada ($13.1 million) are off the payroll this year. We also declined Brackman’s option (I think $2 million).
Burnett ($16.5 million) is gone after 2013, as is Soriano ($10 million).
Are you honestly going to sit there and tell me that arbitration raises and extensions for Cano and Grandy, plus signing Darvish, are enough to balance out $45.6 million coming off the payroll? I just don’t see how. I’ll assume Cano gets $20 million AAV on his extension, which adds $10 million, and I’ll say Grandy gets $16 million, about $7 million more than 2011. That’s $17 million added, which leaves $28.6 million. Say Darvish gets $12 million a year: that’s $16.6 million left. Arbitration raises could counteract that, but odds are we’ll dump just as many arb eligible players in the next 3 years as we’ll give more money to. Not to mention A-Rod’s salary goes down from $33 million to $25 million, so pile on $8 million more.
If they just sign Darvish and can restrain themselves for two more offseasons, they get under.
And I’m sorry the idea that the NPB is AA level play is hysterical. That’s just flat out wrong. Maybe the offense was AA level since they made the new dead-ball, but Darvish has success that began long before that ball was introduced.
I just do not really see why they wouldn’t go after Darvish.
Everyone says the league is AAAA and he has posted ridiculous numbers, strikeouts and 200+ innings seasons and has only gotten better.
I agree with above in that this is like signing Matt Moore type (Matt Moore didn’t post a 1.44 era and 275 strike outs in AAA) prospect for about 8M per year to the payroll which should be what they are looking for…posting fee will be repaid in merchandise/tickets sales.
This is a no brainer and it boggles my mind if they are not just trying to drive down the posting price.
1- why did Darvish say he may not post at all…maybe in January..
then Yankees signed a Japanese friend and..
2- Darvish suddenly posts the same night.
With the CBA partially closing the door on our drafting ability and getting a chance to add some high end talent…penalty free…
why wouldn’t the Yankees make this move?
for 8M dollars>?
They could even stack the contract so he is paid more in 2012,2013 but less in 2014 and back up in 2015 to ensure they are safe for the 189 M goal.
Last year they forced Cashman to waste 13M for a relief pitcher ( with 1 year of real success in his role) we didn’t really need ( just as an insurance policy)…WHY would they not go for someone with much more upside for less per year?
IF they are not being sneaky…I am completely missing something.
IF The Yankees are truly looking to lower payroll but want to add major league ready talent…isn’t Darvish and Cepedes exactly the kind of talent they are looking for?
What makes you think that Nakajima and Darvish are “friends”? They played on two completely different teams, and at best have only played together in the WBC and what not.
Isn’t it somewhat racist to assume all Japanese players get along? Have you ever met another American you didn’t like?
I was using brevity and not being literal obviously…I was talking of getting a fellow japanese player to ease the transition like the Red Sox did with Dice K.
Thought that was pretty clear. Amazing the reactions the internet can bring.
They didn’t sign him they won the right to negotiate with him and according to all reports that was a bit of a surprise to the Yankees so it’s hard to see how that was part of a strategy to pursue Darvish. Besides, why would Darvish even care about this?
The odds are that neither Darvish nor Cespedes (especially Cespedes) are major-league ready. Cespedes would almost certainly be sent to high-A with the hope that he can rapidly advance to AA and maybe AAA over the course of next season. I doubt he’d be able to contribute in a meaningful way until 2013. Darvish would probably open the season in AAA to allow him to adjust to the North American game and would probably (if things go well) be called up in June or July.
Darvish is going to start the year in the majors, I don’t see anyway he would go to Scranton. Dice-K never made a minor league start, he’s compared himself to Matsuzaka the whole way, I doubt Yu’s ego will allow for that. He’ll probably negotiate that he has to start the year on the major league roster while negotiating the deal. In his eyes he’s a proven ace, he isn’t going to want to pitch in AAA with guys who haven’t even played major league ball. Plus I doubt the Yankees are going to pay 10 million a year to a guy who will start his career in Scranton.
Well actually no one is going to Scranton since they’re rebuilding the ball park and the team will apparently not have a permanent home park next season. Also, there are a plenty of guys in AAA who have played in the majors (haven’t you ever heard of guys being optioned back to the minors?) and Darvish himself has never played in the majors so, while I agree his ego might be offended, that’s kind of a weak claim
I don’t think it’s out of the question that Darvish would get at least a couple of starts (and maybe more) at AAA. I know Dice-K didn’t but how did that work out? He might have benefited from such an experience. As far as the money teams spend big money every year on guys who will spend years in the minors. Steven Strasburg got $15 million and a major-league contract and he went to the minors – and his stuff is even better than Darvish’s.
No I’ve never heard of anyone being optioned back to the minor leagues, I just started watching baseball yesterday… Please, that’s an extremely insulting, condescending question to ask.
Of course Darvish has never played in majors but he considers himself an ace, and there is no doubt he is more decorated than anyone in the minor leagues. He isn’t going to want to play in the minor leagues to prove anything, I’m sure he will get it in writing he will start the year with the team. I would.
It actually didn’t work out all that bad, he threw 204.2 innings that first season and posted a 3.9 WAR. I highly doubt minor league ball would’ve have done anything for Dice-K that year, or prevented the injuries that followed several years later.
Stephen Strasburg also was coming from college and had never thrown a professional pitch in baseball. Darvish has thrown over 1,000 professional innings, they aren’t MLB innings, but they can certainly be counted as good as AA or maybe even AAA innings. They certainly mean more than Strasburg’s 68 innings in the minor leagues in 2010.
Also Strasburg was 21 when he was drafted, Yu is 25 years old. I can’t see him making any minor league starts without pissing him off royally. Which isn’t the smartest thing to do with someone you just invested 100+ million in.
If he was god awful after 10+ starts maybe they would consider sending him down, but I would think it would be out of the question to start his year off in AAA.
Yeah, let’s just appoint him player-manager and pitching coach while we’re at it. I’m not even sure a player contract can contain a clause stipulating that the player can’t be sent to the minors.
It’s a club decision as to what level of placement in the organization his performance merits. If Darvish can’t understand or accept that he can stay in Japan for all I care.
I’m sure the Yankees want him to be able to start at the MLB level but he’ll have to earn it in spring training (assuming the Yankees win the posting, and sign him). I’m sure Orlando Hernandez and Hideki Irabu wanted to start at the MLB level but both started in the minors as I recall. Darvish is far more talented than those guys but that’s not the same as saying he will be more successful.
Dice-K may have had a successful first season but he might have learned to have a bit more respect for the team concept rather than to stick with his idiosyncratic approach towards pitching which is what, in the end, derailed his MLB career as much or more than the injuries. I know a few Red Sox fans (and from what I read, also some in Red Sox management) who were sick of him long before he got hurt.
The Strasburg comparison is a fair one despite his coming from the college level and being younger because even at that age he could have pitched credibly in the majors but Washington was wise enough to send him out. Darvish will have to get used to a different sized ball, a different mound, more demanding travel, pitching more regularly than once a week and living in a new country where he is not proficient in the language or adapted to the culture. All of that is far more than what Strasburg had to adjust to.
They will sign him so again I was trying not to write a novel…again obviously and yes we all know SWB is being renovated too and those minor league players have a fraction of Darvish’s professional experience.
Staying on topic is more useful.
Darvish is major league ready and there is no doubting that…Cespedes believes he is as well and certainly by what he has done at the level he did shows he is close at the very least/worst or teams wouldn’t consider offering 30M to him.
Scouts expect Cespedes to impact a major league team this year.
This article told me everything that I already thought (or hoped) Cashman was up to on biding or not biding for Yu Darvish, but Steve S. went to small minded & conservative in his thinking in the end of your article. It makes me laugh when people worry about the Yanks spending “too much” much…. This organization is swimming in greenbacks. Nothing in life is guaranteed, but hey, from everything I’ve read about this 6-5 fireballer for the past 3 years tells me that the Yankees would be just plain cheapscapes if they didn’t an all out play for Yu Darvish…… and yeah, there’s no need to tell the world about it now.
All I want for Christmas is Yu Darvish in pinstripes!!!!!!!!
Not just that, the AAV of his contract will likely be around $11 million per year. I dare anyone to find me a potential ace on the market soon that we can get for that low of a cost. Hell, Hiroki Kuroda is looking for $12-13 million per year. The posting fee is nothing to the Yanks, the only reason they’re wary of high prices this winter is because they want to get the payroll under $189 million by 2014 (just for one season) to avoid sever luxury tax penalties. Hell, Edwin Jackson would cost more than Darvish per year at this point. There’s really no excuse not to go all in on him.
I’ve been talking this over with my friend the last few days. I was kind of on the fence about it all but the more I think about, find out about him and talk it through I was him more and more.
Like everyone has been saying, let’s say Japan ranks somewhere between AAA and MLB, “AAAA” let’s say. You get a guy who has dominated this level and gotten better every single year since he came up. A guy who seems to (by most accounts) have the ego, will and toughness to deal with NY. A guy who has (count ‘em) 7 pitches in his répétiteur. A guy who has never been a pure fastball pitcher but who has impeccable control and really seems to know how to “pitch.” That last one is important to me because a guy who throws 100 mph will eventually lose some on it and then usually be in trouble thereafter.
I like this kid more and more and I’m starting to really hope the Yankees go after him aggressively. Of course the Yankees have been scouting him for 3 years now and will know what’s best, I just hope they like him as much as I’m starting to.
What could be the financial benefit of effectively signing the biggest star (and i dont just mean baseball) in Japan…BY FAR…for the Yankees? That needs to be weighed against the cost of getting him. Small minded thinking views someone like Darvish as solely an $100-110 million cost from the financial side of things for the Yankees. The Yankees would be adding the current biggest icon in Japan to their team. Every shot in a Yankee uniform, every telecast, every jersey and souvenir bearing their brand. Everything Yu, everythin Yankee would offset what the Yankees would have to pay to get him…beyond what he actually does on the mound. The revenue stream from carrying Darvish will quickly recoup most if not all the money they will spend on the guy. Their were reports that the Yankees recouped the cost of signing Matsui within the first year. Darvish right now is bigger than Matsui was…popular not just with Japanese baseball fans like Matsui was but with teenagers (you want to know what age group is considered marketing gold?) throughout the far east that dont watch baseball but to see him. This is a no brainer.