As many of our readers know, we here at TYA tend to follow the Yankee farm system very closely, since it is often the source of the next generation of great Yankees (or trade bait to acquire great Yankees). In the past few years, the farm has been the source of a number of exciting young Yankees, including , Jesus Montero, and , and the next wave is coming. EJ put together an excellent top prospects list earlier, and I will probably put one together at some point when I have enough time to sit down and do a little extra research.
It’s definitely easy to develop a bit of an echo chamber within the Yankee blogosphere, so it is always nice to read assessments of the Yankee farm system that come from outsiders. I enjoy the reading the work of the mainstream prospecting community (such as Baseball America, Keith Law, John Sickels and Kevin Goldstein), but there are also plenty of writers and bloggers who do excellent research and analysis of prospects. One such site is Bullpen Banter, a collaborative project involving 4 bloggers from across the country who do a great job covering the minor leagues and the draft.
Bullpen Banter recently came out with a list for the top 15 prospects in the Yankee system, so I thought it would be nice to take a look and see what they thought about the Yankee farm. The full post is definitely a must-read, but I’ll provide the list and some comments here. There were two lists here (by Jeff Reese and friend of the blog Al Skorupa, each of whom have their own take on the system), so we get some idea of where there is some consensus regarding the rankings.
Both see the Yankee system as somewhat down compared to last season, which I think is a fair assessment. It’s still a very strong and deep system, but regression from a bunch of the guys who were near the top last season (the B’s, Gary Sanchez, etc.) prevented the top end from being truly elite. There is no question that there is definitely a lot of talent at the back of the list, which is evident in the lack of consensus Jeff and Al had at the second half of the list.
As you can see, Al and Jeff are in strong agreement about the top 7 names on the list, and for the most part, I agree. I might consider flip-flopping Montero and Banuelos since Montero looked so strong in his short stint in the majors this season, while Banuelos’ control regressed somewhat this year. However, I understand their rationale. I know both of them are pretty bearish on Montero’s defense, and consequently, the value of his bat is somewhat limited by his future position. Gary Sanchez not surprisingly gets a Montero comp due to his powerful bat and questionable defense, but there is more optimism about his ability to stick behind the plate. They are both fairly bullish on Ravel Santana and Dante Bichette considering they were both only in rookie ball last year, and neither of them were expected to be so good so quickly. Al mentioned that the scouting reports on Bichette seemed to have changed very quickly after the draft, which makes sense given his less exciting reports at the time of the draft and his dynamite debut.
In the 2nd half of the list, the only spot where Jeff and Al made the same pick was Cito Culver at #9, which seems like a reasonable slot. They vary significantly on a number of guys including Slade Heathcott (not on Al’s list, #10 on Jeff’s), Jake Cave, and JR Murphy, to name a few. I was a little surprised that Heathcott was left off Al’s list given his first-round pedigree and solid pre-injury performance, so I asked Al about it in the comment section. His answer:
Heathcott just missed my list. Its not a reflection of one major flaw, but rather a number of minor ones. Overall, I’ve gotten the impression from people I’ve talked to that his tools are more good than great despite his impressive physique. He’s had knee problems and his defense is pretty raw… I see him most likely ending up in a corner OF spot. He needs to make some big adjustments to his swing and approach, too. So those are the negatives, but don’t read too much into it… as I said, he just missed and its more a reflection of the list only going to 15 than it is anything else. He’s certainly the same quality of prospect as the guys above him going as high as even Romine… It was basically a toss up between him and Cave.
Sounds like a perfectly reasonable explanation, though I would probably lean Heathcott over Cave because Slade has a track record of minor league performance, and was more highly touted as an amateur (in terms of scouting reports, draft stock, and signing bonus). Slade certainly has more risk than the average first-rounder due to his injury history and personal issues, but I still consider him less risky than a guy who has never played a season of pro ball. Both guys are very high on Cave, especially Jeff, who was impressed with his performance this summer in the Coastal Plain League against collegiate competition.
There’s more good discussion in the post and comment section, so feel free to take a look at that for further information.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
I’ve never been a huge Slade fan to be honest. He obviously has some impressive tools, but his swing has always seemed like it had too many holes in it to me. I just think he is going to find it hard to adjust as he move up and sees more and more impressive breaking stuff from more advanced pitchers.
Aside from that the only two I’m not really familiar with are Santana and Cave. Is Santana likely to end up in CF? Or is he destined for a corner spot?
Santana has the speed to be a good CF, though he had a nasty ankle injury this year, which could affect things.
Cave is a high school outfielder who is probably not fast enough for center, but has the athleticism and arm to be a good RF. He has a good hit tool and power projection as well. Got the second-highest draft bonus in the Yankee class (only behind Greg Bird)
If Santana can continue to show this kind of impressive power/speed combination as he progresses the ladder, he makes a very impressive CF prospect. Add that to Williams and the possible addition of Soler and/or Cespedes and the outfield looks promising for the future.
I see one AAA pitcher who struggled and a catcher who can’t catch (so no trades to the NL)and little that has performed above the AA level.
So Eric Chavez and Undraw Jones look like can sigh in relief.
It would be awfully foolish to say Montero can’t play in the NL. It’s not like first base is full of high grade defensive players, and if he’s athletic enough to at least be behind the plate he’s athletic enough to man first.
The question is not whether he can play in the NL but how an NL team will value him at this time since the only position he’s played professionally is C. 1B is not the most demanding defensive position but you do have to catch ground balls and master the footwork on throws from infielders, play bunts, make throws on double plays and pickoff plays, etc. It might be reasonable to assume that Montero will be able to do those things at an acceptable level but it’s still an assumption.
If I’m an NL GM I’m not valuing Montero the same way an AL GM would because if he proves to be a liability as a fielder he’s got no role on the team except pinch hitter and emergency catcher. People in this and other Yankee forums are expecting NL teams to trade young, cost-controlled star players (like Andrew McCutchen) to the Yankees for Montero and I just don’t see an NL GM doing that unless guys like Baneulos (and perhaps others) are also in the trade and that makes the cost a bit too rich for me.
His bat will play, any GM trading for him will go off of that first and foremost. Even if he is an awful 1B and C, you can deal with splitting a guy between the two positions if he hits. He can play C, not well, but he can play it which means he can probably do the same at 1B. It’s highly unlikely he would be so bad at 1B he couldn’t man the position. have you seen some of the defense from players at first? Giambi was an everyday firstbaseman don’t forget. Posada man’d first this year. It’s not the hardest thing in the world.
I have no idea who’s talking about Andrew McCutchen, we don’t even need a CF.
I think you are really undervaluing him in NL GMs minds honestly. I could see getting Mat Latos with Montero without adding in Banuelos, maybe Betances, but that’s something different altogether considering his likely long term place is in the pen.
Hell Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder were the worst 1B in the league last year and had 7.3 and 5.5 WAR respectively. It’s an offensive position.
Agreed. But here’s where it was discussed:
http://riveraveblues.com/2011/12/scouting-the-trade-market-andrew-mccutchen-60001/
WOW that’s ridiculous. I love Andrew as a player but he makes no sense for this team with it’s current structure.
Yesterday I read that the Yankees are the favorites to land Jorge Soler right now, and now today I read that along with the Tigers and Marlins the Yankees have the strongest interest in Cespedes.
I think there is a real chance the Yanks could end up with both. Since Soler is 19 he’s going to need at least a year, probably more, before he makes it to the majors. So it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibilities. If that ends up being the case the Yankees outfield prospect depth could really become a strength.
If we do land both it probably doesn’t mean good things for Swish. I would still like to Cespedes go to Scranton for at least part of the year and keep Nick starting in RF, but if he gets the 50+ million he’s looking for it might be too much money not to start him right away.
Where’s you hear the Soler news? I haven’t heard much about him recently, but maybe I haven’t been paying close enough attention.
I’d be all for getting Soler assuming the Yankees’ evaluation of him is in line with his price. At 19 he would really be more of a prospect rather than an established professional, so he would not require a substantial financial commitment (at least compared to Cespedes) or a major league deal (in all likelihood). The comparison of a possible deal seems to be Leonys Martin, who got 3 years and a little over $15 million if I remember correctly.
With limits on international free agency spending upcoming, Soler could be the type of guy that the Yankees would be unable to sign with their soon-to-be limited budget. As a result, I wouldn’t be opposed to going big on him this year if they think he’s good.
I’m skeptical that the Yankees will end up with Cespedes, since there is no obvious hole he would fill right now (though I know Swisher has 1 year left)and the contract demands are reportedly pretty high. I would think Darvish is the top priority this offseason, but if they lose out on the bidding then it is possible they could shift focus to Cespedes. I can’t imagine there is room in the budget for both, though.
Were you getting the Soler info from Kevin Goldstein? I see that he mentioned something about the Yankees being possible frontrunners on Twitter.
Kevin Goldstein was asked who he thinks will land Soler he replied with “My bet would be Yankees, Rangers or Phillies, in that order”
I think Soler is all but a must. As you said he shouldn’t break the bank, only a little more than the three-year, $15.5 million deal the Texas Rangers gave Cuban center fielder Leonys Martin. He fits the bill for someone the Yankees shouldn’t be outbid for.
Looking at his swing it’s pretty long, so I do have my doubts about Cespedes but he makes sense. Swisher won’t be brought back next year, and while I don’t think it’s likely Nick could be traded before then. The reported price is getting a little higher than I like, but if he lives up to the hype it would be worthwhile price to pay.
I’m still not sure how into Darvish the Yankees are. Though I do think there is room for both Yu and Cespedes in the budget if Swisher is traded. Since at that point Cespedes would be more or less taking Nick’s place in the budget, and Yu’s posting fee wouldn’t count towards the payroll.
Apparently Bobby V “loves” Darvish and since he managed against him in Japan he has ton of insight on him. After the hiring of Valentine I think the Sox are bigger players than originally thought on Yu.
Somehow I skipped seeing where you already referenced Leonys Martin. Sorry about that.
Regarding Cespedes .. has anyone read this (behind ESPN paywall)
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7298446/mlb-statistical-projections-yoenis-cespedes
For those without a subscription the ZiPS projection for Cespedes is for a 2.8 – 3.4 win player over the next 5 years with triple slash numbers in the .260-.270/.327-.330/.430-.400 range with HR numbers in the low twenties. They’re projecting him as a “Kevin McReynolds, Mike Devereaux and Aaron Rowand” type. Not bad considering the current CF market but not that great for a corner OF. The quality of play in his Cuban league is portrayed as roughly equivalent to High-A ball.
The real caveat they raise is Cespedes age. If he’s older than his advertised age the cumulative WAR drops off pretty fast depending on how much older he might actually be.
I have no idea how accurate the ZiPS projections are but the article claims that this system accurately predicted the performance of Alexi Ramirez (another Cuban defector).
The low OBP projection and the long swing displayed in the video are frankly a bit troubling but he might be worth signing if he’s willing to go to AAA and prove himself. Since other OF help from the farm system is at least 2-3 years away he’s worth gambling on at the right price but my feeling is that he’s bound for Miami.
You can’t accurately predict WAR for someone who has no MLB game. They don’t have nearly enough info on his defense to know that. He could come here and be gold glover in CF and it change everything. Or he could be an average RF and it drag his offensive production value down. I’ve also heard Cuba compared to AAA and at worst AA+, that is first I’ve ever heard of it being compared to A ball.
Also MLB Rumor has “one executive comparing him to Cameron Maybin with more power and less speed”.
I would take not just those but all triple slash line projections with a real grain of salt, no one can really do more than guess what he’ll do at this point. Honestly he could be a total bust, or he could get with some hitting coach fix his problems and be a beast, or anything in between.
I agree he has a long swing in the video, but so has Andruw Jones and he was once considered on a HOF path. Plus he showed some other way power in the video, and he had to cut the swing down to do that. I’ve seen Long do some pretty crazy things with guys swings, I wouldn’t be shocked at anything he could do at this point.
I also highly doubt he goes to Miami. He’s from Cuba so that is really where all the people saying he’ll go to Miami are coming from, but honestly I think they are going to blow their budget on Reyes. After signing Bell and Reyes how much left would they have for Cespedes, especially considering they are also trying to sign Buehrle.
Before the Reyes signing, I don’t think anyone would’ve thought the Marlins were seriously going to come away with much in free agency. Most thought they were floating rumors of their interest just to drum up ticket sales for their new stadium.
Now that they’ve spent on Heath Bell and Jose Reyes — and are rumored to be making a push for Pujols as well — it would be premature to rule them out of the Cespedes sweepstakes.
I predicted they would sign Reyes in the post above.
“I also highly doubt he goes to Miami. He’s from Cuba so that is really where all the people saying he’ll go to Miami are coming from, but honestly I think they are going to blow their budget on Reyes. After signing Bell and Reyes how much left would they have for Cespedes, especially considering they are also trying to sign Buehrle.”
My point still stands… They’ve signed Bell and Reyes, and if they give Buehrle his no trade I think they sign him as well. After that I see no way they can also shell out 50 million for someone who has never played pro ball before.
@T.O. Chris:
“My point still stands… They’ve signed Bell and Reyes, and if they give Buehrle his no trade I think they sign him as well. After that I see no way they can also shell out 50 million for someone who has never played pro ball before.”
I’m not sure that’s as much a point as it is an opinion. I don’t see why giving $50M to a Cuban defector would be so hard after they’ve already spent more money in one week than they’ve spent in nearly 10 years.
While I’m completely perplexed as to how they’re projecting these kinds of revenue streams from their new stadium — the Mets are proving that a new stadium doesn’t guarantee revenues two or three years later — that doesn’t seem to be stopping the Marlins. I don’t know where this money is coming from, but it certainly seems like that’s not going to stop them this winter.
Fine my original opinion still stands. You clearly know what I meant…
Your point is really what I’m getting at. I just don’t see how they are realistically going to spend 214 million in one offseason, which is about what it would take to sign Reyes to 106, Bell to a 27, Cespedes to 50+, and Buehrle to somewhere around 14-15 million for 3 years. At some point they have to say we’re good.
I understand the Reyes signing, the Bell signing to a lesser degree, and Buehrle makes tons of sense. But to add 50 million to all of that, with a team with no history of being able to support that kind of budget, for someone with zero track record seems beyond foolish.