The White Whale
Whether or not a trade happens between two teams can come down to many nebulous factors, from the relationship between the two GMs, how clubs value players, and the level of motivation a team has to move someone. But one important element that can be looked at objectively is how the teams match up. This is a series where I’m going to look at how the Yankees match up with the other team for their prospective trade targets.
What do the Mariners need?
Offense, just about everywhere. They scored the fewest runs of any team in baseball last year (556) and that list includes weak hitting teams in the NL. They were 66 runs behind next worst team in the AL (Twins). They finished the season with a 67-95 record and were last in the American League in runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The only players who had an OPS+ over the league average 100 number were 1B Justin Smoak (104) and 2B Dustin Ackley (117). Even Smoak falls short when you that consider he plays 1B, a position where the average OPS in the AL was 116 last year. Making matters worse the great Ichiro Suzuki started slowing down at age 37, and he has another year at 17M guaranteed for next year.
What do the Mariners have in their farm system?
If there’s any reason for Yankee fans to hope Felix will be dealt at some point, it’s the pitching depth in the Mariners farm system. Seattle’s farm system features “As enviable a trio of starters as any team” according to BP’s Kevin Goldstein. But it lacks MLB ready positional prospects and much of the remaining high end talent is in the lower levels of the system. The pitching trio includes a polished LHP in Danny Hultzen (eta 2012) power lefty James Paxson (eta 2013) and a potential future ace in RHP Taijuan Walker (eta 2014). They also have a very good SS prospect in Nick Franklin, who played well in a small sample of games in AA last year.
Yankee trade chips that match
Jesus Montero, Nick Swisher, Austin Romine, Ivan Nova, Brandon Laird, Hector Noesi, Mason Williams
The ephemeral:
It’s hard to believe King Felix is still just 25 years old. It seems like he’s been around forever, and he has, making his MLB debut at the tender age of 19. He’s a dream come true as a pitcher. He throws hard, throws strikes, has great stuff and hasn’t had anything resembling a serious arm injury, which suggest clean mechanics. He’s been worth 16.4 WAR over the past 3 seasons. He won the CY Young award at age 24, and came in 2nd the year before. The Yanks have inquired about his availability repeatedly, and each time they have been rebuffed. I’ll be watching closely to see if the M’s land Prince Fielder. If they don’t that pushes their timetable toward returning to being competitive back significantly, which could soften their position on Hernandez. It’s also worth noting that the big money on the contract he signed in 2010 kicks in this year, going from 10M last season to 18.5M, 19.5M and 20M over the next 3 years. Pineda has already shown the ability to assume the mantle of team ace, so they have his replacement in house.
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Captain Ahab had the White Whale, Yankee fans have King Felix. It’s been discussed and shot down so many times that its grown tiresome, but as I laid out in the piece the makings of a deal are there. The big money starts kicking in this year, and they’ve kept payroll around 90M the past few years. His bump and signing Prince would be a huge expansion of payroll to well over 100, though I have to think if they sign Fielder they’re going for it next year. The Rangers will be huge favorites to repeat next year, so they’re looking at the WC at best. They have Pineda in house to replace him at the top of the rotation, the Yanks have a few bats they could offer to bolster their sagging offense, and they can finish in last place without him.
Swisher, Montero and Nova?
If only it were so. I do believe that IF the Mariners are to consider trading King Felix the planets would have to align perfectly. The Mariners would have to have a dismal 2012 season. The rest of the starting rotation primarily Pineda would have to show that 2011 wasn’t a fluke. And like you said they pretty much have to be shut out of the Pujols/Fielder bidding and have little to no hope of improving offensively in the short term. If all of those things happen I can see the Mariners making him available late this coming season (at the trade deadline or prior to the 2013 season). I think it will take more than Montero/Swisher/Nova to pry him away even then. But I say go for it when and if that day comes. To hell with the Yankees theoretical budget.
Next year should have a strong FA class with Hamels, Cain, Anibel Sanchez, Liriano and others due to hit the market. So if you think you want to deal him, it makes more sense to do it this year when the FA class is weak. As with the Cubs, I’m very interested to see what happens after Pujols and Prince sign.
I think you can scratch Liriano off the “strong” FA class for next year. He’s a disaster.
I enter a plea of “no contest”.
Good enough.
Steve, next years FA class has the potential to be strong it depends how many of the players actually make to to FA or if some of them sign with their current teams before then.
I do agree if the Mariners what to get the most value for Felix they probably would look to move him by the 2012 trade deadline. I’m sure by middle to end of July they will pretty much know their fate for the 2012 season. Hopefully they pull the trigger on a trade and the Yankees are right there.
I get goosebumps thinking of the potential CC/King Felix top of the Yankees rotation for the next 4 or 5 years.
Another thing I wanted to add but didn’t quite know where to put in the piece. The M’s have (C) Miguel Olivo under contract for 2012, and (1B) Smoak was one of the few guys who hit at all for them last year. They don’t have an easy fit for Montero, unless he’s a DH/back up catcher this year.
Steve, give the Yankees King Felix and Matt Cain for Christmas and the entire 2012 season and beyond and I promise never to complain about AJ being in the Yankees rotation for the next 2 years.
Hell I wouldn’t even complain if they extended AJ!
Very good point. But may be pay him a little less next time.
I think the money is the least of the M’s concerns. They aren’t the Rays who simply can’t afford to pay a top player, and if you are going to pay anyone it might as well be Felix. If they ever do trade him it will be to get players, not because they can’t afford him.
I still think even if they do trade him we won’t be the ones receiving his services. As for me, I’ve given up hopes of ever seeing Felix in pinstripes.
Felix won’t be pitching for the Yankees. Period.
I honestly think you can add an “ever” to the end of that sentence. It’s a pipe dream.
Is it? He will be a free agent eventually. I don’t see a likely scenario where the Yankees wouldn’t pursue King Felix, especially in free agency.
Yeah, I can understand people’s frustration but that’s just silly. He could ask to be traded, Jack Z could change his position or you could get him as a 29 year old FA. The Yanks don’t keep calling because they think it will “never” happen. Obviously, they think things could change at some point.
He could hit free agency, but I honestly think people are being foolish to write off Felix re-signing with Seattle. If they can pay him 20 million in the last season of the deal why couldn’t they pay him 20-24 million after that? Again Seattle isn’t some tiny market team with no ability to pay players, that myth simply isn’t true.
The Yankees keep calling because of the talent. They would continue to call even if someone had told them if would never happen. The likelihood is he will never play for the Yankees.
Even if he hits free agency every team in baseball will bid for him. The Red Sox would be just as likely to get him as we are, plus the Jays seem like a team who are competing to spend for the long term as well. Not to mention the Dodgers will be set by that point as well.
Felix at no point has made it seem as if he doesn’t love Seattle, it seems people have forgotten he turned down more money as an IFA from the Yankees to sign with Seattle in the first place.
Jered Weaver would never have taken less money to stay with the Angels… until he did. Lee was a lock to sign with the Yankees… until he showed he would rather play with the Phillies. These things happen. We can’t get everyone just because we want them.
..and CC wanted to play on the west coast, Tex was minutes away from signing with the Sox, and Mussina was a quirky, small town guy who wouldn’t work in NY. We could do this back and forth all day. Things can change, sometimes quickly. Does that mean the Yanks will definitely get him? Of course not, but saying it will never happen I think goes too far.
Completely agree.
The Lee argument works both ways. Everyone thought he would go for the most money, but he signed for lesser money in a place he really liked. This displays the fact that we fans never really know what a player’s true desires are. We could speculate all we want about whether Felix is about the money/winning or about playing where he really likes (as in Seattle). However, as Cliff Lee, Sabathia, Teixeira, Mussina, etc. exemplified, we really don’t know anything.
I never thought CC would play out West. Teixeira seemed to maintain if the money was equal he wanted to play for the Yankees. My whole point is all Yankee fans seem to think there is no chance at all he re-signs with Seattle when he has already done so for less money. It’s just my opinion but I don’t think he plays for the Yankees in his prime years, if ever.
No Mike D I don’t really think we could. I think it’s very clear he doesn’t play for the money. Winning may eventually win out over playing somewhere he likes, but he has already given up enough money to prove that he prefers other things over money. As I pointed out below he could have wade way more in the 5 years he re-signed to stay with Seattle.
He signed a 75 million dollar 5 year extension, over that same time via arbitration and free agency he would have likely made 98 million minimum.
If the man was all about the money he wouldn’t have inked the 5 year extension in Seattle in the first place. He would be a free agent right now in that scenario, and via arbitration he would have had made more than the 6.5 million he made in 2010 and the 11 million he made this past season. I think it’s very safe to say money isn’t an overwhelming factor in his decision making. Or he simply can’t add.
If he was a free agent this year, with this weak pitching market, and Sabathia signing for 25 million a year he would have raked. It’s reasonable to assume he could have asked for, and received, 7-8 years for 24-25 million a year from the Yankees.
Your example to prove your point simply doesn’t hold. They bought out his arb years, plus a few years of free agency. In order to give up the flexibility of arb and guarantee the money, the team asks for a reduced AAV on the deal. The Yanks did the same thing with Cano, and so have a ton of other teams. That doesn’t tell us anything about him as a person, that the nature of deals extending a player with a few years of arb left.
I don’t see how it doesn’t hold… He could have more through arbitration than 6.5 million in 2010, he could have more than 11 million in arbitration in 2011, and as a free agent he could have made more than 18.5, 19.5, and 20 million over the next 3 years. Combine that with the fact that he turned down more money as an IFA from the Yankees to sign with Seattle in the first place and it’s pretty clear he value playing Seattle over other places.
This is from his press conference after the extension.
“For me, it’s not about money,” Hernandez said moments after a Safeco Field press conference announcing an extension that had been the talk of his adopted home since Monday. “For me, it’s about being here. I know the fans need to be in the playoffs. We need to be in the playoffs. And we knew we had to get things done, early this year, before spring training, and now my mind is clear, all I’ve got to do is go out there and pitch. That’s the only thing I’ve got on my mind right now. This is a great place to be.”
He has chosen Seattle over more money every time the opportunity was presented.
The Cano – Hernandez comparison is what doesn’t hold. Cano signed his extension after 2007, no where near the same leverage in arbitration/potential free agency that Felix had.
Felix was 2 years away from free agency while Cano was 3 years away.
Felix signed his extension coming off a 238.2 IP, 8.18 K/9, 2.68 BB/9, 2.49 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, 6.8 WAR season. He had already established himself as one of the best pitchers in the AL at this point.
Cano signed his extension after a 19 HR, 93 R, 97 RBI, .306/.353/.488, 4.9 WAR season. A very good season, but a far cry from his 3 consecutive 25-29 HR, 6.5, 5.6 WAR seasons. He was a good up and coming second baseman, but back then everyone was saying the most HRs he would ever hit in a season is 20-25, and his manager and GM were saying he was “too much of a line drive hitter to reach 30″. does anyone think 30 is out of reach now?
It holds because he could have blown out his shoulder in year 1 and would have got nothing in arb or free agency. The team guaranteed some money, and the player accepted less per year. That’s how all of these extensions work. If you were going to pay him the same amount he’d get in arb/FA why extend him? You lose all flexibility and lock in money that could be dead weight. Felix wasn’t be benevolent, that’s SOP on extensions for players with a few years of service time.
As to those quotes, I have trouble taking them too seriously. Players are coached by their agents to tell fans what they want to hear in those settings. All that tells me is that most Mariners fans want to believe the game isn’t big business, which we all know it is.
Players believe in themselves, I can’t be made to believe he only took that extension and forfeited 23 million dollars because he thought he would blow his elbow out over the next 2 years. He signed the extension because he likes Seattle.
Obviously he isn’t going to come out and say “I took the extension for security only, I really hate it here”. But he also clearly really loves Seattle. He chose them over the Yankees and Red Sox as an IFA because he wanted to play for the same team Freddy Garcia played for, and he took the extension to stay when he could have made double what he made through arbitration.
If you want to believe he is chomping at the bit to play in New York, or he simply signed the extension as a safe guard to a major injury he’s never shown signs of having I can’t dissuade you. I simply don’t see it like that. The evidence is heavy enough for me to believe he truly loves Seattle, and it would take a lot for him to leave.
I’m not saying he would never leave Seattle, but I think it would take more than 2-3 million here or there to do so.
or maybe a wise word from Freddy, say, about the joys of winning.
Freddy wouldn’t be on the Yankees by the time Felix can decide if he wants “join” the Yankees on his own. He may have joined the Mariners because of Seattle as a 17 year old kid, but he set down root sin Seattle because he liked what he’s experienced there. He also has a kid now, so he isn’t the same hero worshiping kid he was then.
Has anyone bothered to consider that one day Felix may just get tired of all the losing in Seattle.
As Mike D. said above. All any of us do is speculate. I hate to say this but since none of us have any inside information, one persons opinion has no more validity then another’s. Anything is possible.
I remember not that long ago on these very boards posters where adamant the Darvish would not be posted this year. The most recent news out would seem to contradict that. I only point that out to show things and circumstances change.
Since when does disagree with someone lead to saying “one persons opinion has no more validity then another’s”?
It’s called an argument. Someone presents there opinion and then others repudiate or agree with it. If you disagree you then have to present a case for why you believe your opinion to be right. That doesn’t however, mean you are saying “one persons opinion has no more validity then another’s”. You just don’t believe it is right.
I still don’t think Darvish will be posted, though I am starting to lean the other way on that. If there is any chance his wife is able to take a dime I think he would be stupid to ask to be posted. He’ll get just as much money next year, he just won’t have to give away any to his ex-wife. This is the only thing I’ve based my opinion on the whole time. I simply know if I was him I would wait until next year if that was my situation.
Also while reports are coming out that he will be posted right after the winter meetings, his Father said yesterday he wouldn’t ask to be posted until the middle to end of January either way. So his father basically contradicted the most recent reports. No one knows anything on Yu I suppose, not even Yu.
In my opinion when people disagree and that disagreement/argument or difference of opinion is based on rumor and or innuendo and not based on any specific facts or specific knowledge that tells me that “one persons opinion has no more validity then another’s”.
That’s just the way I see it.
So then no one would ever be allowed disagree on something that didn’t have 100% fact behind it? There would never be disagreements then.
I guess you simply don’t believe in friendly disagreement then. People don’t have to hate each other, or think the other is stupid in order to disagree.
Both Steve and Mike’s opinions have validity, I just disagree. They could be right, I simply don’t think they are.
Chris I think you are putting words in my mouth so to speak. Of course all fans of good intentions can disagree, argue or any other words you chose to use. All I’m saying is that no one’s opinion has any more validity then anyone else’s. I’ll say it again “no one’s opinion has any more validity then anyone else’s”.
I’m not sure but this back and forth seems to me to be more about semantics then substance. Regardless, I’m not sure what else I can say to explain my position. Therefore I will end my participation in this discussion by merely saying I wish the Yankees every success in the world in 2012 whether or not King Felix is in their future.
Again where have I ever said someone’s opinion has any less validity than anyone else’s?
Disagreeing doesn’t mean you think the other persons opinion has any less validity, it just means you disagree. You can disagree without disregarding someone else’s opinion.
I think you are confused on the meaning of validity…
“Valid: Well grounded or justifiable.”.
Steve’s, Mike’s and my opinion are all “well grounded and justifiable”, we simply disagree on which one of us is right (or I disagree with Steve and Mike anyway, as Steve and Mike agree).
So again not one us is saying the other’s opinions are less valid than the other, we just have differing opinions on which one of us are ultimately right.
I actually think a trade for Pineda is more likely at the current juncture. Even if the M’s were willing to trade Felix it would likely take a package of Montero, Banuelos, Betances, Nova, and maybe Nunez to do it. Which honestly probably isn’t worth it in the long run.
I doubt they are willing to trade Pineda either, but I could see a Montero+ 1 for Pineda happening before boat load for Felix.
It would take us selling Seattle the entire farm system to get Felix out of Seattle. He’s the face of their franchise – he’s all they’ve got right now to get butts in the seats.
He’s right. Larry Bernandez is the big drawing card in Seattle right now, especially so since Ichiro has dropped off skill wise. Maybe Pineda becomes that next star with drawing power, but you can’t count on that after one year if you are Seattle.