The Yankees don't need to make trades to improve the offense in 2012
One thing I’ve learned over the past several seasons is not to make bold predictions about what the Yankees will do during the offseason. I’ve been surprised almost every year.
In 2009 every one and his uncle knew the Yankees would make a hard run at and , but Red Sox fans were pre-ordering jerseys when the Yankees shocked the baseball world and signed the heavy hitting first baseman. In 2010 I was adamant that the Yankees needed to add a starting pitcher, but looked no further than the free-agent market, which consisted solely of . Brian Cashman pulled out of a hat, in a move that ultimately backfired, but was widely heralded at the time. He added to boot. This past offseason former-future-Yankee spurned New York’s big bucks for Philadelphia’s slightly less big bucks, so the Yankees went to the scrap heap and added and to a surprisingly effective rotation. Three years. Three different outcomes. This offseason will be no different.
Having established why it does me no good to predict these kinds of things, allow me to make a handful of observations about what I think is likely to happen between now and Spring Training. With respect to the offense, I don’t expect the Yankees to do anything. The Bombers have a player returning at every single offensive position (I’m including ) except Designated Hitter. The entire outfield is relatively cheap, and in its prime. Apart from the infield may be expensive and aging, but it’s still productive. A combination of cost and lack of need will keep all eight of the everyday position players right where they are.
Don’t expect the Yankees to make a big splash for a professional DH. For several seasons now the Yankees have expressed an interest in keeping the DH slot flexible to rest older regulars. 2012 figures to be the only season where that actually may be a good strategy because it behooves the team to get Jesus Montero into the lineup on a regular basis next year without closing the door on using him as a Catcher. He’s tailor made to be the team’s semi-regular DH, while trying to give him reps at Catcher when other players need half a day off. This is a low cost option that figures to improve the offense immediately. gave the team a .353 wOBA as a DH against righties in 2011. In an admittedly small sample size, Montero was better against righties, posting a .367 wOBA, while annihilating lefties with a .506 wOBA. After such a strong cup-of-coffee in September, combined with his low cost, the DH/Catcher spot seems Montero’s to lose.
Montero, obviously, remains tantalizing trade bait for the Yankees to dangle for starting pitching, but Joe Pawlikowski at RAB summed up nicely why Jesus will probably stay put. I agree. Montero’s trade value has never been higher, but that’s only because he’s made himself such a known quantity. Unless the Yankees can get a young starter with proven front line potential my money is on Jesus providing the improvements to the offense in 2012.
On the pitching side of the ledger my hunch is that the Yankees will pass on both and Yu Darvish. Wilson seems like a Burnett/Lackey redux. He’s clearly a good starter, but he’s not great with a lot of question marks. Ponying up the $90 million or so (before the luxury tax) that it will take to sign him seems like a desperation move, and the Yankees aren’t desperate. They can make the playoffs again with their current personnel plus some additions. Why, then, add another long term contract for a pitcher the team doesn’t need? There are other clubs who will give Wilson his pay day.
Darvish, on the other hand, has the make up that the Yankees are looking for. He’s young, cheaper and has more upside. The problem is the posting fee, combined with the spotty track record Japanese pitchers have had in the US. The Yankees are already at most two years away from having young, upside pitchers who will be less expensive. In that environment Darvish only seems like an option if the Bombers are in love with his stuff.
This is why I’m expecting the unexpected. The Yankees have a clear need for pitching, but there are no obvious targets. My expectation is that the Yankees will be active in the trade market this offseason, even if that market isn’t well developed yet. The Yankees are prime counter parties for a trade. The farm system is deep and talented and the Bombers can absorb young players who are about to become expensive or older players who have one year left on costlier deals. Brian Cashman has done an excellent job of meeting the team’s needs each of the past three seasons. This season will be no different, but none of the big names floating about figure to be on the Yankees in 2012.
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It can’t be filed under unexpected now since it’s been talk about in trade rumors latley, but I think the discussions of Montero for Mat Latos are really interesting.
I don’t know if the Padres would be willing to do such a deal, but I the Yankees would really have no choice but to accept. A young, ace upside pitcher, who could immediatley throw 200 innings behind CC. It would fill the number 2 spot in the most perfect manner.
Well, they could also choose to not accept, right?
Latos has good numbers and not much of a home/away split but pitching in the NL West and in an extreme pitchers park he only has a career ERA+ of 108. Will that translate to the AL East?
Besides, why would the Padres do the trade? Montero’s best position might be DH which is useless to an NL team and Petco might seriously dampen his offense. Would you trade a young, front-line starter for a guy who might not fit with your team and ball park?
The Yankees should not trade Montero. They need him as a RH (and perhaps full-time) DH and he deserves a shot a being the starting C when Martin’s run ends. I might change my mind if Felix Hernandez was in play but I don’t think Latos is at that level.
I clearly meant the value that Latos could bring for the next 10 years as an ace pitcher would force the Yankees to make the trade despite how much they may or may not like Montero.
He “only has a career ERA+ of 108″ yet he’s also ONLY 23 years old, and about to pitch 200 innings in a season for the first time next year.
He struggled at the beginning of the year, his velocity was down and he was trying to pitch differently than the year before. His velocity picked back up into the mid 90′s as the season went on however, and he finished the year with a 2.87 ERA after the All-Star break with a BAA of .205. He’s a nasty young top of the rotation starter, he’s more than worth bringing to the AL East.
Montero would clearly be moved to 1B with any NL team. He would replace Adrian Gonzalez and he would probably have to be traded with one or two of a Noesi, Phelps, Warren combo. Or maybe even Montero and Betances alone for Latos. I’d be fine with either.
We really need to get over this “Montero is worthy of no less than Hernandez” attitude a lot of fans seem to have. Not every pitcher is Felix Hernandez, but many have a lot of upside and high value. Felix is never going to be available, but a 23 year old with ace upside possibly is. The Hernandez’s and Kershaw’s of the world are not realistic trade prospects, Latos is closer in that direction.
10 years? That’s a pretty liberal assumption. How do you know he’ll be good for that long or not get hurt?
Clearly? How do you know he can even play 1B? Has he ever done so at the professional level?
Well, you’re entitled to your opinion but there’s no guarantee that his stuff will translate from Petco and the NL West to Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park, and Camden Yards in the AL East.
Another assumption based only on your own opinion. I seem to remember Tom Seaver, Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson being traded in their primes. King Felix and Kershaw are not immune to being traded. In fact, I don’t understand why Seattle or LA would be less inclined to trade those guys than the Padres would be to trade Latos. At least the M’s could use Montero as a DH.
Don’t get me wrong – my position is that the Padres would never do the deal and I’d rather keep Montero period.
The word “could” was used for a reason… I never said anything would happen. However the value of a potential ace for the foreseeable future is more valuable than that of a DH for the same period of time.
He may not be a great first baseman, but he could physically play the position. Miguel Cabrera is a similar guy in terms of size, and lack of foot speed and he plays the field.
Latos is a 6-6, 225 pound, 23 year old who throws 93-95 MPH on average. “His stuff” will assuredly translate, it’s the other parts of his game (mentality, mechanics & control) you have to look for translating. I’ve seen him pitch a lot over the last 2 years and I don’t question his mental makeup at all. As a 22 year old he lead the Padres rotation to be as competitive as possible in 2010. Then he struggled mightily to start this season and he bounced back big, never got down on himself and pitched his way through it. Also for a young kid with electric stuff his walk totals have been fantastic, posting a 2.44 BB/9 in 2010 and 2.87 BB/9 this year.
Not an assumption at all. Jack Z has said on multiple occasions they have no interest in trading Felix, and he has said no to both the Yankees and Red Sox in trade proposals before. He even took Justin Smoak over Montero for Cliff Lee, I doubt he wants Montero now for Felix.
The M’s have made it clear they have no desire to trade Felix. The day all Yankee fans get over the pipe dream he represents I think the better off we all will be. The Dodgers are also not going to trade a single player until their franchise is officially sold, and in the hands of it’s new owner. This may take all of the upcoming season to finalize. At the bare minimum Kershaw is guaranteed to stay through that, and I don’t see any reason for a new owner to trade their best player as their first move. If anything the new owner will look to keep both Kershaw and Kemp longterm.
Felix and Kershaw are more proven than Latos at this point, and if the money strapped Padres can get a first baseman of the future, and a high upside pitcher in Betances they might do it. Though I said to start I didn’t know if they would do it, and really only wanted to know the Yankee fan opinions around here on our side of it. It’s not a trade idea I made up. Word out of San Diego is the Padres want a bat, and they may be willing to move Latos to acquire one. I think they have pitching prospects coming up.
I would go as far as trading Montero, Betances, and Phelps/Warren for Latos honestly. Considering he has 4 years of team control left.
I definitely like the sound of Latos, Chris. Your deal sounds like a fair one that the Padres could like. I’d wanna see the arm x-rays, etc, with Jimenez as example.
I think you’re probably correct that the Yanks won’t sign Yu Darvish, but I don’t like that decision. He has a reasonable shot at becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Hi everyone. Thanks for the comments.
Until I read about it here I wasn’t aware of the Mat Latos for Montero rumors. In principle that is the kind of trade the Yankees would make, if they are going to deal Montero. Latos is young, has good numbers even when his home park is taken into consideration, and upside. Whether or not the Yankees like him specifically is unknown, but that is the kind of pitcher they would trade Montero for.
The Yankees don’t need offense, so while I believe Montero is going to remain on the team, it is not at all guaranteed. The team continues to maintain that it needs pitching. As I said in the post, that means that Montero will be offered for any young, frontline starter. Typically, however, the guys who represent fair value for Montero don’t come on the market, which is why I’d bet he stays put, but an offensively challenged team with lots of pitching, like the Padres and Giants, are ideal trade partners.
If Darvish could be had without the posting fee I think the Yankees would jump all over him, but the posting fee adds a difficult, unknown variable. I struggle to see them bidding too much money in that process.
Yu Darvish is exactly what the Yankees need, a young powerful #2 pitcher that won’t cost a draft pick and keeps the farm full. Darvish is not Matsusaka, if fact he is not like any other pitcher to ever come out of Japan. The I hope the Yanks put in an aggressive bid and don’t let him slip away, especially to Texas.
Darvish will be a Yankee, IMO. The posting fee doesn’t count towards annual salary.
If the Yankee scouts like Darvish I can’t see any possibility that the Yankees dont go after him. His posting fee doesnt count as annual salary and wont cost them luxury tax money. He fills a huge need and will allow them to hold on to prospects for at least another year. The Yankees have had plenty of US players fail as well as S.American players fail, yet they still go after them. Look no further than A.J. Burnett and Carl Pavano. Pitching is a risky propositon, no matter where they come from.
No way would the Dodgers part with Kershaw. EVER. He’s about to win the Cy Young Award… he’s an untouchable. Now the Yankees or Sox could get Felix or Lincecum obviously, but would have to give up tons.
There are a few untouchable pitchers right now… Verlander, Kershaw, Halladay, Hamels, David Price and a few others…
But you don’t want C.J. Wilson. Dude’s so overrated it’s crazy and he wants money as though he’s one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball.