A.J. wouldn't even trade for A.J.
In Friday’s post I hypothesized that the Yankees will land neither nor Yu Darvish this offseason. The Yankees are likely to pass on both players because they represent high cost, with little guaranteed reward. Wilson is a good but not great pitcher who risks locking the Yankees into another type deal while Darvish has potential. Given that either player would cost the Yankees about $100 million it makes a lot of sense for Brian Cashman to spend his money more wisely.
Given that the Yankees need pitching, if they are not going to be major players for the highest profile free-agent pitchers on the market then the team will have to plug holes either internally, from the scrap heap, or via trade. Internal candidates are for another post while scrap heap projects are difficult to project. Trade speculation, on the other hand, is the currency of the baseball blogger during the winter. Most trade speculation posts focus on players the Yankees will target. Instead, I thought I’d break down the current trade value of the Yankee players, going from those with the worst trade value to those with the most trade value.
Here’s the logic of this list. First, it is not meant to be an exhaustive list of everyone on the Yankees. Instead it is limited to the highest profile members of the organization. Second, placement on this list is based purely in terms of trade value, not playing value. That means that doesn’t rate highly on the list even though he’s the best pitcher on the Yankees and one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. As good as CC is, he is hard to trade because few teams can afford to pay his salary, even if they wanted him. Third, it ignores no-trade clauses, because paying attention to them would make this less fun to write. Finally, this isn’t actually a list in reverse order. Instead, I’ve grouped players into tiers because trade value differs from trading partner to trading partner. With that cleared up, here’s the tiers.
Tier 7: Untradeable
A.J. Burnett
With the exception of A.J. Burnett, there are a lot of good players on that list, but age and salary matter. Alex Rodriguez is still a productive baseball player, but he is also the least tradeable player in the game. He’s super-costly, declining and old. The same can be said for Derek and, to a lesser extent, Tex. A.J. and Soriano, meanwhile, are just grotesquely over paid. No team wants to clean that mess up, not unless the Yankees agree to eat a lot of salary. If the Yankees make a big trade this winter it won’t involve any of these players.
Tier 6: Extra Catchers
Cervelli only has trade value because he makes the league minimum and can suit up at Catcher. He can’t hit. He can’t field. He can’t throw runners out. He can, however, meet a need teams are likely to have, so he’s got that going for him. Romine has future potential, but most scouts predict that his ceiling is as a weak hitting back stop. Until he puts up some offense against real pitching he’ll serve at best as part of a larger trade.
Tier 5: Good, but expensive
CC Sabathia
If money wasn’t a factor, a year of CC or a year of Mo would generate incredible interest on the trade market. But money does matter for just about every other team in baseball and no one gets paid more to start or relieve than CC and Mo respectively. Obviously neither of these guys is getting dealt under any circumstances, but if the totally unthinkable were to happen so much money and value would have to change hands on both sides that a deal is virtually impossible.
Tier 4: Brian Cashman may get calls about these guys
These players are actually tradeable, and could produce some decent returns. Swisher has been mentioned frequently this offseason as a possible trade piece, but that actually doesn’t make sense for the Yankees. If the Yankees were concerned about being unable to resign him once he becomes a free agent then perhaps it would make sense to part ways with Swisher in a deal, but right now Nick represents above average power and on-base percentage for below average cost. He could get something back in a trade, but why would the Yankees trade him?
The rest of the guys in this tier are tradeable for different reasons. Russell Martin plays a critical position well for not a lot of money (I’m assuming the Yankees keep him). Brett Gardner is excellent at what he does, and cheap. is phenomenal, but as a middle reliever his overall trade value is limited. Hughes and Noesi have potential, but it is as of yet unproven. While none of these guys will land the Yankees a big arm, any one of them would be a solid component of a good trade.
Tier 3: The rotation of the future
Manny Banuelos
Ivan Nova’s trade value has never been higher. He always projected as nothing more than a back of the rotation starter until 2011, when he ended the season as the Yankees’ number two starter. He has no history of meaningful injury. He has improved each of the last two seasons. He handled pressure situations decently at a young age. Nova plus the right pieces could land the Yankees a young, proven, arm if the team on the other side needed to cut salary, for example, or meet additional roster needs.
Banuelos and Betances fall into the exact same category as Nova. They currently have less trade value than he does because they’ve yet to do much at the big league level. If either one of them is called upon to give the Yankees quality innings in 2012, and deliver, then they would leap frog Ivan into a higher tier because they project to have more upside.
Tier 2: No one thinks these guys are available
The Yankees’ best two hitters are both young. They play premium positions on defense. Either of them can breathe offensive life into a team that needs it. They make affordable salaries in 2012. For all of those reasons the Yankees would be crazy to trade either of these guys, but if Brian Cashman wanted to lose his job trade one of them it would be as part of a block buster deal.
Tier 1: You know who
One could argue that no player has more trade value in all of baseball than Jesus. He’s been heralded as one of the game’s best offensive prospects for several seasons now. The Yankees dangled him in front of the Blue Jays for in 2009. In 2010 they almost got for Montero. Those deals almost happened based on potential. Montero’s strong showing this past September has jacked his value up higher than ever before. Until he can get it done for a full season he remains a prospect, but now Montero has some impressive swings at the big league level to entice opposing general managers even more.
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Mike, who do you think the Yankees could attract with a package headlined by Betances, Noesi and perhaps a lower prospect? Just curious.
I’m not as well versed on other teams’ rosters as some of my conspirators here at TYA, so take my analysis with a grain of salt when it comes to complete trade proposals. I wrote this post because I thought it would make for fun reading during the offseason.
With all that wonderful hedging out of the way, my rule of thumb has always been that the potential of the prospects being dealt needs to double the asset received if those prospects are unproven. That means that the Yankees could get a middle of the order starter for a package of Noesi and Betances right now, think Edwin Jackson vintage (if he wasn’t a free agent). Betances rates higher than that, but he can’t step in and produce right now, limiting his value as a stand alone trade prospect.
AJ and Montero for Gio Gonzalez
Trading partners matter. The A’s wouldn’t make that trade because you’re asking them to take on $16.5 million in salary. That’s not going to happen. The Yankees would effectively be asking the A’s to subsidize their bad decisions, which Oakland can’t and won’t do.
I’m not a fan of Gio Gonzalez, so I wouldn’t offer Montero for him. I’d go the Noesi/Betances route, if I wanted him. However, if you rate Gio highly, as a lot of scouts do, then I would offer Montero straight up. (Even then, by the way, I’d have reservations because there is no such thing as a pitching prospect.)
I doubt if Jesus really has more trade value than Robinson Cano or Curtis Granderson unless you really believe that he is a catcher long term. That said, I agree that Cano and Granderson are very unlikely to be traded and the top three tiers are where the greatest value lies. I think the players in those tiers and maybe Russell Martin, Bret Gardner and DRob are the guys who could headline deals for anyone of significance.
I think we’ve all spent enough time evaluating the trade value of Montero, Betances, and Banuelos. I’d be more curious what the trade value of Nova, Hughes, DRob, Gardner, and DRob really is. I suspect DRob is worth more than you imply. I think he’d close for most teams and given the cost of a closer on the free agent market, he’s very cheap.
I think you are correct in your assessment of Romine’s value. I think most Yankee fans tend to overrate his value. He may end up being as good as internal reports suggest but he hasn’t really hit that much and outside scouting reports on his defense usually aren’t as strong as the internal reports. He still has value as a close potential starting catcher but I don’t think he’s the trade chip that a lot of people think he is.
I doubt anyone will push back to much on any analyst who feels that Cano or Granderson have the most trade value for the Yankees. However, I’d still argue Montero for the following reasons: 1. He’s just 22 years old. 2. He’s under team control for a long time, and costs just $500k right now. Here’s where trading partners matter again. What would you rather have? Two years of Robinson Cano at about $14 million per year, before he becomes a free agent or six years of Jesus Montero, many of them at under a million dollars per year. My bet is that most teams would roll the dice on Montero, with a thinner market for Cano, based purely on the dollars of it, not the guaranteed performance.
Honestly, I don’t think a single one of DRob, Hughes, or Gardner has much trade value. Relievers, starters with shaky track records or injury history and defensive players don’t get much more than that back in return. Even for closers the market is limited to mid-level position players or other closers/relievers. It is too easy to fill those roles internally for most teams to make a splashy trade for such players.
Nova has real value. He’s now got a season and a half as a full time pitcher under his belt. It was a big debate in my mind, given my focus on cost and age, to put him behind Cano and Granderson, as opposed to ahead of them.
In general, I’m hesitant to put much trade value on unproven prospects. Romine is entirely unproven. His cup of coffee did not go well, but he was asked to make the leap from AA to the big leagues, which is not easy. Until he proves something, however, he is a throw in, nothing more.
I can see your point but Granderson and Cano both play premium positions well and provide a lot of offense at positions that are not known for their offense. They are not cheap but they still generate a lot of surplus value. I think Montero is a pretty sure bet to be a major leaguer and his cup of coffee was impressive. Unless he can stick at catcher though, he’ll be playing a position where you’d expect premium offense. If Montero is stuck at DH for instance, you can buy a Vlad Guerrero/Jim Thome type for a fairly reasonable price so how good does Montero have to be to have his cheaper salary make up for the positional difference and strong proven offense of Cano/Granderson? As a practical matter, the Yankees aren’t likely to consider trading Cano or Granderson (especially Cano) so Montero is likely the greatest potential trade chip.
The Yankee willingness to trade Montero probably reduces his value as a trade chip, but to answer your question, he doesn’t have to be all that good to generate better value than Cano or Granderson, relative to salary.
According to Fangraphs Montero was worth $2.9 million in 2011. He was paid just $500k, so his net value was $2.4 million. Vlad Guerrero was paid nearly $8 million and generated no value, according to Fangraphs while Thome was worth $5.8 million on a $3 million salary. That means that Montero was almost as valuable as Thome, in a fraction of the time, in terms of net value.
Next year you have to figure, in terms of offense alone, Montero will be a .360 wOBA player, at minimum. A full season of that is worth about 2.5 wins, which is roughly $10 million in value, net of his salary. Cano and Granderson must be six or seven win players to match that net value, plus they will be free agents much sooner, which erodes their value further.
No matter how you slice it, regardless of where he plays, Montero has incredible value over the next four or five years because of his team control. Most teams in baseball would rather pay for his production than for Cano’s or Granderson’s because you get Montero cheaply.
I know you are using fangraphs because there really isn’t a lot of alternatives out there but I just don’t agree with how they value WAR. I don’t think the value of WAR is linear and thus I don’t think Cano and Granderson would have to be 6-7 WAR players to be worth more than Montero.
I’m not a huge fan of WAR, but I’m not in a position to come up with anything else. If you reject the linearity of player value, which is widely held position, then Montero definitely loses some of his luster.
As I said, arguing that Cano or Granderson is the most trade valuable player on the Yankees is well supported position to take.
I think Gio Gonzalez might be our answer, but to your point, what pieces do you think the A’s need? Cashman loves a good three-way, I’m wondering if we don’t have what they need who does and might we have something to offer a third team at that point (since we are so catcher heavy, I’m thinking a team with a big need there)
I’m not the best person to ask about Gio Gonzalez because I’m not a huge fan. From what I’ve seen I’m not convinced he’ll be that much better than Ivan Nova. I wouldn’t trade Nova or Montero for him.
The A’s always need the same thing: affordable hitters. Once Montero is removed I’m not sure the Yankees have anything the A’s would want. Any three team deal would have to feature a solid hitter (think Nick Swisher) with some years of team control left. The Yankees would probably have to part ways with two of Noesi, Betances or Banuelos, plus Nunez if the team keeps Banuelos.
“One could argue that no player has more trade value in all of baseball than Jesus.”
I’m not sure one could argue this. He’s a tremendous prospect but I don’t think you can find many talent evaluators who would take him over Byrce Harper or Matt Moore or Mike Trout. Shelby Miller and Jameson Taillon might very well be more valuable prospects themselves. Extend this to the big leagues and I’d say Stephen Strasburg, and Evan Longoria, and Felix Hernandez, and Clayton Kershaw, and Mike Stanton and a host of others have signficantly more trade value. Could Jesus headline a package for just about any player in baseball? Sure. I think there are clearly more valuable pieces out there though and it wouldn’t shock me, given how set we are at first base and offensively in general, if Montero were on the move. It’d take a player like Felix Hernandez or Tim Lincecum or Clayton Kershaw coming available… but if that happened, sure, he could be traded.
Seek and ye shall find. Allow me to argue it.
There’s no such thing as a pitching prospect. That knocks just about all your young arms out of the conversation. In addition, any player yet to make his big league debut is also less tradeable. That knocks out Harper, and his ilk. Remember, Delmon Young was a can’t miss prospect, until he wasn’t.
As for the bigger money pitchers, that erodes their value because it limits their markets. Lincecum and King Felix, for example, will never make less than $10 million a year for the next six years, barring injuries. Most teams can’t afford them, even if they were available.
Montero is a top five prospect in all of baseball, and he just put together an incredible major league debut. He’s super cheap for a long time, and now it is regarded as a near certainty that he’s an above average major league hitter. There’s not really any other player who combines that value and proven talent right now.
I think you’re making a lot of assumptions here. Our organization is arguably the worst in baseball at developing pitching talent into frontline big league arms. We have failed miserably in this regard. Thing is, I can’t say the same about the Rays, Red Sox, Angels, Cardinals, Athletics, Braves, or just about any other team. That’s because pitching prospect are valuable commodities. Almost every first or even second starter in baseball was a very highly regarded prospect. While pitchers possess significant risk health wise it’s also significantly easier to evaluate them on a talent level. You can see things like velocity, movement, and command much better than you can see an approach at the plate, timing, vision, and a complete strike zone. I don’t think it’s fair to dismiss the idea of a pitching prospect because one organization has failed. I certainly don’t think that’s the consensus around baseball. I don’t think pitching prospects lack trade value. Is Matt Moore a proven commodity? No. Yet I think I learned just about as much from his two big league starts, which were both unbelievably dominant, as I did in Jesus Montero’s short stint with the big league club. I’d take Matt Moore at his level of development over Jesus Montero at his level of development 10 times out of 10. I think that’s the consensus around baseball. I’d take Stephen Strasburg 10 times out of 10. He’s already one of the best pitchers in the league. Talent wise he’s the best pitcher in the league. I’d take Clayton Kershaw 10 times out of 10. He can give Strasburg a run for his money on pure stuff and command and he’s probably the best pitcher in baseball right now, period. And he’s 23. On the offensive side of things, I’d rather have Mike Stanton. He was a probably an even better prospect than Montero is and last year he OPS’d .900 at 21 years old while playing elite level defense in right field. If Jesus Montero has the potential to be Miguel Cabrera then Mike Stanton has the potential to be Miguel Cabrera with Gold Glove defense in right. Yeah, I’d also probably take Bryce Harper. He’s a generational talent. He’s the best high school prospect perhaps since ARod. He’s got better power, right now, than Montero does. He’s got more defensive value, right now, than Montero does. He’s a much better baserunner than Montero is. The bat does need to develop if he’s going to equal Montero’s value but if it does then we aren’t talking about Miguel Cabrera, we’re talking about Mickey Mantle or Ken Griffey Jr. We’re talking about multiple .300 season with 50+ homers and Gold Glove defense and a handful of stolen bases. We’re talking about a guy teams are going to fear so much he’s going to walk 100 times a year without even trying. I don’t know. I’d just rather have those player. Doesn’t mean I don’t really like Jesus Montero, but I think he’s probably the fourth or fifth best prospect in baseball and I think guys like Strasburg, Kershaw, and Stanton are better players with similarly team friendly contracts. Montero is going to be a great player but there are better ones out there.
I cracked up while reading “if Brian Cashman wanted to lose his job” and “Tier 1: You know who”~ Keep this kind of fresh fun semi-analysis coming! Tired with “pitching pitching pitching” and “delusional regarding team’s offensive capabilities” that sort of scrutiny. :P
Glad you liked the post. Thanks!
Not to hijack, but it revolves around trades. I just saw Melky Cabrera was traded for Jonathan Sanchez… I haven’t seen if there is anymore to it, but if this is the case the Royals got a steal. I don’t think Sanchez is much more than a 3, but I don’t see Melky ever having a year like this again.
I definitely don’t think Melky will repeat his 2011, but I understand this trade. The Giants have pitchers and desperately need cheap hitters.
That said, I agree. This smells like buying high on Leche and selling low on Sanchez.
I think you could’ve found a much more reliable return than Melky somewhere. I mean maybe they couldn’t, but this just seems like buying into Melky being this Melk man going forward. When he had a career low walk % of 5.0, career high K% in 13.3, career high BABIP, and a career high SLG% by a wide margin. Everything about it screams career year, with very little likelihood of ever repeating this kind of success.
Sanchez is never going to be an ace, but with his stuff he’ll always tempt you with what he could be.
I believe this move probably takes away two options on next years trade market though. The Royals should be looking to lock up Sanchez on some kind of extension with their window opening soon, and I don’t see the Giants trading Sanchez and letting Cain walk free.
I wouldn’t trade Montero for anyone. This is a once in a generation hitter.
That’s silly to say. you can’t literally be saying you wouldn’t trade him 1-1 for Felix Hernandez, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, David Price, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels. Everyone is tradeable, and Montero is more tradeable than most since he doesn’t have a position. He is very valuable, but there are more than a few pitchers anyone would be foolish not to trade him for in the right deal. Someone like Kershaw would be infinitely more valuable than Montero to the Yankees.
I would only want to see the Yankees trade Montero for one of the names mentioned in T.O.’s list. If the Yankees can get David Price or Tim Lincecum for Montero, more or less straight up, they have to make that trade and hope that Montero is a career .365 wOBA hitter and not a career .400 wOBA hitter.
Whatever the Bombers choose to do, they’re in an enviable position with Montero.
So you would only trade Montero for David Price or Tim Linecum? I think this is either a real overvaluing of Montero on your part, or completely disrespectful to the talents possessed by Kershaw and Felix Hernandez.
I mean the kid has tremendous amounts of talent don’t get me wrong, but you already have him marked down for a career as good or better than Vladimir Guerroro’s with a career .400 wOBA. This simply doesn’t make sense to me. Montero likely isn’t even the most highly ranked hitter in the prospect rankings, considering many in baseball would probably take Bryce Harper and Mike Trout over him in a selection process.
I misread what you wrote. I read it as you would only want 1 of the names on the list, not the whole list. Completely my fault, for lack of reading comprehension. Sorry.