Stats to Watch: Rafael Soriano

By On November 22, 2011 · 2 Comments · In Statistical Analysis

I was not a fan of the signing. It didn’t seem necessary and it was for too much money. Sure, it made the 2011 Yankees better (before the season started), but it was still a short sighted move. Regardless of my misgivings, the Yankees are “stuck” with Soriano (oh how awful).

2011 wasn’t a failure for Soriano, but it definitely didn’t live up to his career standards. There are three areas in particular that I think we’ll have to pay attention to in 2012 to see if they revert back to his career numbers.

First, let’s start with ERA. Soriano’s ERA was a semi-bloated 4.12 last year (108 ERA+). That’s not bad at all, but it’s definitely the exception for MFIKY and not the rule. His career ERA is a fantastic 2.86, giving him a robust 148 ERA+. Soriano hasn’t had an ERA that high since 2002 when he had 8 starts (10 games) for the Mariners and threw to a 4.56 ERA in 47.1 innings. What made it so much higher this year? Let’s look at the other two stats I want to watch in 2012.

Part of Rafael Soriano’s appeal is his control. His career BB/9 is 2.82. This year, though, it shot up to 4.12. Over his career, Rafael has stranded 78.8% of the runners who’ve reached against him. This year, that number was way down to 73.3%. Those numbers–more runners on and more runners scoring–help explain the the rise in ERA.

Of course we should also note that Soriano seems to have been hit a bit harder this year and had more balls land for hits against him. His BABIP shot up to .276 (.245 career) and his tERA was 4.38, the highest it’s been in a full season. If you prefer the StatCorner version, Soriano was at 4.16, which led to a 102 tRA+, the lowest of his career.

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2 Responses to Stats to Watch: Rafael Soriano

  1. T.O. Chris says:
    November 22, 2011 at 9:45 am

    I think Soriano is going to have a good year. I assume he’s going into the season as the 7th inning guy, but I could see him taking back over as setup man if Robertson’s control problems cause him to stumble at the start of the season. I don’t think he will be as unhappy as he was at start of last season, and if he remains healthy I don’t see anyway he has the same kind of terrible year he had in 2011.

    Reply
    • Cris Pengiucci says:
      November 22, 2011 at 10:59 am

      Part of the issue he had with control (higher BB/9 than career norms) may have been due to his arm troubles. This (control issues) could also have led to better contact by hitters and hence the lower strand rate. I also think he’ll have a better year in 2012. If so, perhaps he becomes the closer in 2013 should Mo really decide to retire. I also expect a regression from Robertson (but I hope it doesn’t happen).

      Reply

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