Another home game, another dinger
When was called up in early 2007, he appeared to have all the promise in the world. He was highly anticipated as Baseball America’s top pitching prospect that year, exploded on the scene with a near no-hitter facing the Rangers, and Yankee fans thought they were watching a future ace grow up right before their eyes. Over the past few years he’s had his share of ups and downs, but loyalists insist he’s still young and that we should be patient. But after 5 seasons of gathering data on Phil, I think that patience is misplaced, at least when it comes to him being a successful, high end starter for the New York Yankees. I don’t say this out of frustration coming off a bad year, but rather taking a good look at who he is and always has been as a pitcher.
Look at Phil’s batted ball numbers from Fangraphs. He gave up fly balls almost 45% of the time in 2011, and line drives 23.2%. Only 5 starters had a higher LD% in all of baseball (min 120 IP) and only 9 gave up fly balls more often. He kept the ball on the ground just 32% of the time in 2011, which would be the 3rd lowest mark in all of baseball among starters (120 IP min). I know what you’re thinking, that 2011 was an aberration. But when you look at his career numbers, it isn’t. He has a 35% ground ball rate and a 45.2% fly ball rate for his career. That’s pretty much who he is as a pitcher, and that profile is a bad fit if you’re a right hander pitching for the New York Yankees.
We can talk about his dead arm, spring training trip to fat camp, lack of a 3rd pitch and whatever other excuse we want. He can , show up in camp in the best shape of his life and in my view it will change little. The simple fact is he’s a right-handed, extreme fly ball pitcher who pitches his home games in Yankee Stadium. If he’s not missing bats he’s in trouble, and he doesn’t do nearly as much of that as a starter (6.97 K/9) as he does when working out of the bullpen (11.18 K/9). His batted ball profile explains why his Home/Road splits have always been stark, and its also interesting to note that his GB/FB rates don’t change much whether he’s starting (0.78 ) or relieving (0.76). His career ERA is 5.01 at home and 3.88 on the road (443.2 IP). But even those numbers are a bit skewed by his stellar work as a reliever, particularly in 2009. His career ERA as a starter is 4.90 and a miniscule 1.44 as a reliever (4.46 ERA overall). Since his numbers are so much better as a relief pitcher, I thought it would be interesting to see what his Yankee Stadium ERA looks like without them, viewing him only as a starter at home. If you do the calculations his career ERA is 5.88 pitching as a starter at home (222 IP). Much of this is due to his fly ball tendencies. For his career he’s given up 37 HRs at home and just 16 HRs away, giving him a 0.67 HR/9 on the road and a 1.46 HR/9 at home. I’m all for patience with young players, but after 5 seasons I think the results are in. Phil just is flat-out awful in starting Yankee Stadium, and has been throughout his career. He was only successful in a small sample of starts in the first half of 2010, and even that year he gave up an ungodly 20 HRs at home and just 5 on the road. Let’s also not forget that he also enjoyed enormous that year, going 14-0 in the 16 games when the Yanks scored 6 or more runs for him.
If they want to send him to the bullpen, fine. His stuff plays up there, and the fact that he misses bats as a reliever keeps him out of trouble. But if they feel that’s not a desirable option, since it means he’s heading to an already crowded bullpen and you have to replace his innings as a starter, then Brian Cashman should trade him someplace like Petco or ATT where his style of pitching will fit and he can be successful. If Phil blossoms elsewhere, I won’t lose a minute of sleep over it since I have no reason to believe it was going to happen here. Asking Phil to be a #2 starter as a Yankee is asking him to do something that he hasn’t shown himself to be capable of on a consistent basis. His profile as a pitcher just isn’t a fit for Yankee Stadium, not unless he finds a way to more generate ground balls or somehow reinvent himself. Good management is all about putting players in situations where they can be successful, not asking them to do something outside their comfort zone. It appears to me that Phil Hughes and the Yankees would both be better off if they parted ways.
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Agree 100% with this
People expected too much from Hughes given that he has always been mostly a two pitch pitcher including a fastball which is fast enough but not blazing fast and is very straight. That said, if he straightens himself out there is little reason why he can’t be a valuable starter even if he’s never a 2 (which I frankly never expected him to be).
I think fans expect too much from the 3-5 starter positions. If he can eat innings and keep the team in a position to win, there’s a lot of value in that even if his stat line isn’t that impressive. There’s far more value in that than what he’d contribute as part of the bullpen mix. You say he’s 14-0 in games where he got 6 runs or more like that’s a bad thing. He’s winning games that he should win. That’s a good thing. And the Yankees score a lot which means he doesn’t have to shut down the opponent for the team to win. I did a quick count and found that the Yankees scored 6 or more runs last year 36% of the team. They scored 5 or more runs 50% of the time. If he can win those games, eat a lot of innings and put the team in a position to win even 10% of the games where they score less than 5 runs, that’s not bad at all for a 3-5 starter.
If they can upgrade without trading away a lot of top prospects or giving a long term, pricey contract to a starter that isn’t a realistic 1 or 2, I’d be for it. Hughes trade value is pretty limited right now so I don’t think they should probably trade him and there is a good chance he’s one of the top five starters on the team next year and I’m fine with that.
Eating innings is fine except that it’s hard to eat innings when you’re getting bombed at home. If Hughes is pitching to a 5.88 ERA at home as a starter, it’s hard to simply ask him to stay out there and eat up innings when he’s more likely hurting the team’s chances at winning (the fact that the team scored 6+ runs 36% of the time, notwithstanding).
Agree, except two problems arise:
1) Convincing someone like the Padres that Hughes fits their ballpark isn’t hard. The hard part is getting them to give up something worth getting back. The Padres could easily hold their noses up and point to Hughes’s lack of performance (and lack of conditioning) and offer up something in return that we just wouldn’t want.
2) With only one year of control left, the Yanks are better off getting whatever they can out of Hughes now and then letting him walk (or signing him to a small deal if he’s willing). Trading him with one year of control left to a team like San Diego won’t net us much in return.
The answer would seem, then, that he should be in the bullpen. I’m fine with that. The fact that it’s crowded down there shouldn’t matter. Bullpen arms drop all the time; Hughes could simply be in the mix down there and let his performance (and the performance of others) dictate whether he gets meaningful innings or not. And while that decision may create a hole in the rotation, one could certainly argue — as you have done in your piece — that a hole exists already as long as he’s getting bombed at home.
I agree, but trading him was in the context of not wanting to relegate him to the 6th inning next year, thinking that he’d be more useful in a package that brings back a starter. The 6th is Luis Ayala territory, as bad as Phil was last year he’s overqualified for that job. They’ll have plenty of arms in AAA and last minute ST signings who can fill that role. Plus Joba should be back early next season.
He may have some value if the team on the other end of the trade views him as a reliever, or even a possible closer. A smart team will look at his home road splits and know there’s a chance to make him a solid starter as well. He’s not going to be the centerpiece of a Johan Santana-type deal anymore, but he still could be a useful piece in a deal. If not, we agree he belongs in the bullpen.
I wonder if he could be used in some sort of package to land Chad Billingsley? I’m not the biggest Billingsley fan in the world, but I think I would believe in him pitching 200 innings more than I would Hughes doing so.
Obviously by himself he doesn’t possess the value to land Chad by himself, but maybe with a Romine type, and a Warren/Phelps throw in.
Yeah, exactly. He’s still just 25, was great as a reliever and has huge H/R splits. A smart GM would take him as part of a package for a big player. Safeco is a big park that would suit him well, but I’m tired of talking about King Felix deals that are not going to happen.
I’d love to say Theo would take him for Garza, but fly balls are a no-no in Wrigley. I haven’t found a fit yet, but maybe there’s someone I’m missing.
Please correct me if I’m mistaken but doesn’t the period when he was pitching out of the bullpen (2009) coincide with when he was healthy and pitching reasonably well as a starter (8 K/9 innings in April and May)? Wasn’t he moved to the bullpen because of a shortage there rather than because of this performance as a starter?
Based on your previous posts you don’t think much of Hughes and have really gone our of your way to bash him. OK, fine. Since the first half of 2010 Hughes hasn’t done much to inspire confidence but I think it’s far too early to give up on him or banish him to a useless mop up role in the bullpen. He’s only 25 years old after all and has talent. It’s not as if the Yankees have anyone to replace him with at this point or would be able to easily obtain such a player.
Yes, the numbers show that Hughes gives up too many fly balls which is a problem for a RHP in Yankee Stadium. Isn’t that something that should be correctable with proper coaching (and application by the player) such as adding another pitch or adjusting his fastball grip to add some movement? It’s not like no pitcher has ever made those kinds of adjustments.
Hughes may not make it and he may end up being bullpen filler or trade bait but it’s in the Yankees’ interest to try to fix him. If they can’t or he won’t apply himself or doesn’t have the aptitude or can’t stay healthy or Dellin Betances has a monster year at AAA and supplants him in the rotation then that’s the way it goes. But to not even try, as you’re apparently suggesting, just doesn’t make sense to me.
Huhges’ ERA for April-May 2009 was high (5.45) but throwing out the one real stinker game he ad (1.2 IP 8 ER) his ERA was 3.55 including two starts in which he did not yield a run (earned or otherwise) in 14 IP, struck out 12 and walked only 3.
He was shifted to bullpen duty in June and never started another game that year.
But aren’t the totals the most important thing here? As a starter — including that stretch in 2009 which you are citing — he’s still pitched to a 5.88 ERA at home. Is that not troubling?
It’s misleading to say that he has a five year track record. His development hasn’t gone well but he only has 1 full year as a healthy, full time starter at the MLB level. It’s really not much to go on even recognizing that it’s critical that he have a good year if he wants to stay in the rotation.
5.88 sounds terrible and I’m not arguing it’s good by any stretch but it’s less than 4 runs over 6 innings. It is possible to eat innings at that performance level with a good offense and a great bullpen. If he was pitching to a 5.88 ERA both at home and on the road it would be one thing. Yankees stadium is far from a pitcher’s park and he’s still developing.
And I would add to that the fact that he might well have had a very successful season as a starter in 2009 but he was converted to a reliever to serve a team need. There’s nothing wrong with that and it sure turned out OK (World Championship and all that) but it might have affected Hughes’ development and health.
let’s not act like he was dominating in 2009 and just happen to get sent to the bullpen. He wasn’t pitching very well at all before he got sent to the pen.
In 2009 simply as a starter Hughes was surrendering a triple slash line of .276/.361/.507 to opposing batters. I don’t think you can look at that and say he was on his way to a very good season in the rotation. He had 34.2 IP as a starter in 2009 with an ERA of 5.45. This may not be a very big sample size, but he was getting blown up. So I don’t see how you can justify saying he would have turned it around and had a “very good season”.
You can’t just say throw out one game and ignore an .868 OPS against and a 5.45 ERA. evaluating someone simply doesn’t work that way.
Well, we have a fundamental disagreement there. That one game, actually one bad inning, had such a disproportionate effect on Hughes’ ERA (3.55 to 5.45) and his other stats for the April-May period when he was starting that I think it’s legitimate to discard it and look at what he did in the other games.
We’ll never know what Hughes would have done as a starter for the remainder of that season but it’s not at all fair to say he wasn’t pitching very well at the time he was sent to the pen.
His last 4 starts (following the brutal outing against the Orioles) he had a 3.91 ERA and a 23/7 K/BB ratio. His next to last start was an 8-inning no run, 6 K, 1 BB outing in Arlington. Is that what you equate with “not pitching all that well”?
You act like he wasn’t the one to pitch that terrible game against the Orioles. I remember watching that game, and he looked absolutely lost. I’ve seen it before from Hughes and it’s one of the biggest things I hold against him as a starter. When things start going really wrong he has a hard time stopping the bleeding. It’s one of the things that make me think he isn’t someone who can qualify as an “innings eater”.
Actually no. The totals are not impressive but you have to take into account injuries and growing pains. The potential is there and since the Yankees are struggling to put together a rotation it’s foolish to dismiss Hughes as a lost cause.
No one is saying it isn’t. But the past is the past – it can’t be undone. The question with a 25-year old guy is not so much what he’s done but what he can do going forward.
Even if you want to look at the one good year he had, Phil has never been a consistently good starter.
In the second half of 2010 he had a 4.90 ERA in 75.1 IP. So it boils down to him having one good half a season in his career as a starter, that everyone holds onto as his true potential. I just don’t see how so many can justify this.
But he’s still only 25, spent the best part of the one year when he was healthy in the bullpen when he might well have turned in a good performance as a starter and was likely injured and/or fatigued in the latter part of 2010.
Look, if the Yankees had better options I wouldn’t argue that Hughes should block them. But right now the rotation is CC, Nova, AJ (maybe) and … I like Nova but he’s a candidate for regression, AJ may not even make or be able to stay in the rotation and then there’s Hughes and whomever Cashman can pull off the scrap pile. Unless you expect ManBan or Betances to make the rotation out of spring training (unlikely) or you expect those Cole Hamels rumors to come true there are 2-3 rotation spots up for grabs and Hughes has to be considered a candidate even if it’s only for the 5th starter spot.
I just think too many people make excuses for Hughes because he was more than likely the first prospect they really followed, and they don’t look at him reasonably.
I have held fast in my opinion that Banuelos and Betances shouldn’t be in the rotation this year and shouldn’t even be called up before September.
Cole Hamels is going nowhere. The Phillies are going to try and win this year, and it makes more sense to let him walk and try to win this year than it does to trade him.
However I certainly don’t think Cashman is going to go into the season with the current rotation, or grab guys off the scrap heap again. I think the 5th spot in the rotation is going to be Freddy Garcia, but I also believe the Yankees are going to either sign someone (Darvish) or (more likely) make a trade for someone.
In that scenario both rotation spots are filled and Hughes goes to the pen.
I don’t think Steve said the Yankees shouldn’t try to coach Hughes out of his woes. I just think Steve is taking the position that, even with the coaching Hughes has received, he’s still a flyball pitcher.
If adding another pitch were as easy as just “doing it” then Hughes would’ve settled on a third pitch already. Instead, he’s tinkered with a cutter, a slider and a changeup, having never settled on any of those to complement his fastball/curve repertoire.
I agree that Hughes is young-ish and can still develop. I just think Steve is right that any future development may be best in another location.
I agree that he’d be best served developing elsewhere but that doesn’t mean the Yankees would be better served by it. His value to the Yankees is likely to be much greater than his trade value. He’s not cheap anymore so why would a team like the Padres give much up for him given his track record and cost. The Yankees need starters. Why would they just give one away given their need, his low trade value and the strong possibility that he’s at least a little better than he’s shown so far?
Agreed, and I said as much at the top of this thread.
So, because the Yanks can’t get much in return for him, I agree they should keep him on the team in 2011. After that, may as well cut him loose. His performance hasn’t warranted the contract he might necessitate to remain.
While I do think there are teams that would be willing to take a flier on Hughes, I’m quite certain that those teams would not give the Yankees enough to make the deal worthwhile.
Since June of 2010, Hughes has been a tick better than a replacement-level pitcher, both in terms of bWAR and fWAR. This is coupled with a decline in velocity and movement on his pitches, a noticeable change in body composition, and a disconcerting arm/shoulder malady. I think selling Hughes as a lightning in a bottle candidate would be easy, but I think any interested team would have too much ammunition to really allow Cashman to extract something of value.
In my mind, the Yankees best course of action would be to stay on top of him over the offseason. Have him work with Rothschild to find his mechanics, ensure that he gets in better shape, and give him a real shot at the starting rotation. I think the Yankees owe it to themselves to give him a realistic shot as he’s further removed from injury and see if there’s something there. I don’t see him becoming the ace that some expected, but I don’t think it’s sensible to cut him loose at this juncture.
Worst-case scenario? Shift him to the bullpen after a few starts and hope for the best. He could serve as a reasonable safety net for the question marks beyond Sabathia … and perhaps build up a bit more trade value.
To T.O. Chris
For some reason there’s no Reply button on your 7:30 PM or 7:35 PM comments.
Anyway, you said
Again, it was one bad inning. And you’re acting like he didn’t pitch that gem against the Rangers three weeks later. You want one inning to negate everything else the guy did? And you also didn’t really respond to Hughes’ stats for the four starts following the bad outing which were pretty good.
Then you just wave your hands and say the Yankees will sign Darvish – a guy who is not even posted yet, who they may not be able to even make an offer to, who has never pitched an inning in North American professional competition and who may need time in AAA before he can step into the rotation or trade for someone (OK – who? And what are you giving up?). Get back to me when any of that happens – and works out as well as you assume it will.
Yeah at a point the reply buttons dissapear. If you go up to the last reply button shown it will post under the last post in that section.
It’s not “one inning”. It’s quite literally a start in which he could only go one inning and got blown apart by a rather weak hitting Orioles team. This matters and has to be taken into account when evaluating a pitcher. If Burnett went “one inning” in a start and got blown to bits no one would be willing to just dismiss it as “one inning”. He would get shredded and rightfully so.
So he had 4 starts that were “pretty good” and he could have gone onto have a “really good year”? Sorry I just think that goes against everything he’s shown us in his career. Hughes has had good games, no one who’s watched him would deny that. But he’s had many more mediocre, bad, and terrible games. He’s a two pitch pitcher and neither pitch is dominant. Sometimes he will come out with a sharper curve, or good location and have a good game. But these are everything goes right scenarios. He simply doesn’t possess a to make him anything more than a back of the rotation pitcher, or bullpen guy. I’m also tried of speculating that one day he will add a third pitch that will turn everything around, at 25 he likely is who he is.
I think it’s time to move on, get by with Hughes the best we can, and when he hits free agency say goodbye.
I didn’t “throw my hands up” at all. I simply stated that I don’t believe that Cashman has any intention of going into this season with a patch work rotation. I believe Cashman will make a splash of some kind, most likely via trade, that brings in someone for the top half of the rotation. If you don’t believe that, and think he has no intentions of upgrading the rotation then it’s your opinion, but I respectfully disagree.
I’d like to comment, but most of my arguments have already been made (and then some) by MJ and TO. Good stuff from both of you guys.