A word of caution on Cole Hamels

By On November 19, 2011 · 19 Comments · In Player Analysis

Buyer beware

This past week Buster Olney speculated (subs required) that on the heels of the Jonathan Papelbon signing, the Phillies might seek to trade Cole Hamels. His reasoning was (as usual) very sound, thinking they could make payroll space for other moves and replenish their depleted farm system by dealing him in advance of hitting free agency in 2012, when they would only receive draft picks if he leaves. As a win-now team, you could argue that getting MLB ready talent back in areas of need could make you better overall than being so heavy in the rotation with glaring weaknesses elsewhere.  It’s the same strategy they employed with Cliff Lee, although it must be noted that the return for Lee from the Mariners of J.C. Ramirez (minors), Phillippe Aumont (minors) and Tyson Gillies (minors) has yet to bear any fruit two years later. Phillies GM  Ruben Amaro did his best to shoot down these rumors last week, saying of dealing Mr Hamels. But we can dream, can’t we? Maybe its just posturing, this is a perfect offseason to deal a front line starter. The free agent class is weak, the best starter available may be a guy from Japan who’s never thrown a single pitch in the big leagues. Certainly a proven, high quality starter should fetch a kings ransom in a year like this.

As a pitcher, there’s nothing not to like. Tall (6′ 3″) left handed and still just 27 years old. He throws hard, throws strikes, misses bats and gives up few walks. He’s been nothing but a horse, breaking the 200 inning plateau three times in his 5 year career and just missing it the other two years. His stuff is good and velocity shows no sign of decline. He also seems to be entering his prime years as a pitcher. In addition to missing his usual  healthy amount of bats (career 8.45 K/9) in 2011 his 52.3% ground ball rate was the best showing of his career, and a marked improvement over his 43.3% career mark. His HR/9 was unsurprisingly down as well, down from 1.12 in 2010 to 0.79 in 2011. All of this pitching in that hitter’s haven known as Citizen’s Bank Ballpark. If you could build an ideal Yankee starting pitcher, his numbers would look very similar to that of Mr Hamels.

So what’s not to like? This, his injury history. Once you get past the minor bumps and bruises I count 4 elbow injuries, 2 shoulder strains (one as recent as last year) and 3 lower back issues related to a “degenerative disc condition”. He has a relatively slight build (175 lbs) for a power pitcher his size (6′ 3″) and guys like that typically don’t age well as they approach their 30′s.  If he became available, I’d love to have him as a 1 year rental. But I’d be very cautious dealing for him with the intention of signing him long term, and by long term I mean 3 years, max. There’s a reason why the Phillies have extended nearly every other core player but him. Never forget that teams always know their players better than anyone else.

 
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19 Responses to A word of caution on Cole Hamels

  1. Billy15 says:
    November 19, 2011 at 10:30 am

    Good effffing article Stevie. Your right on the money with this blog!!!!!!!!!

    Reply
  2. Steve says:
    November 19, 2011 at 10:43 am

    Hamels innings by year 181*, 183, 227, 193, 208, 216. But he’s injury prone?

    *minors+majors

    Reply
    • Steve S. says:
      November 19, 2011 at 12:47 pm

      Not “injury prone” he’s an injury risk. I made the same point you did in the article, if you read the whole thing.

      Reply
      • Steve says:
        November 19, 2011 at 1:44 pm

        Then every single pitcher, ever, is an injury risk. That’s the nature of human beings. Hamels has a very strong track record of being healthy enough to take the ball every 5 days, and therefore carries less risk.

        Reply
        • Steve S. says:
          November 19, 2011 at 2:18 pm

          That’s not true, either. Most of his injuries are arm-related, which is a higher degree of risk than someone who pulled a hammy or had the flu. Look at Chad billingsley for example, he’s had just as many injuries, but almost all were lower body. All pitcher carry some risk, but there are high levels and low levels of risk.

          Reply
          • UYF1950 says:
            November 19, 2011 at 3:39 pm

            Steve S. – I guess this is as much a comment as a question. To a degree I kind of have to side with “Steve”. Aren’t all players but pitchers especially an “injury risk”? If for no other reason then the throws a pitcher makes requires in many cases an unnatural motion (action) of the arm. I would think that in itself would qualify the pitcher as a injury risk. I may be wrong but two pitchers that come to mind that I don’t believe had any “arm” issues prior to their to the 2011 season are Adam Wainwright and our own Joba Chamberlain. Now certainly there are degrees of risk, but it would seem to me that the very nature of being a major league pitcher puts a player at some degree of injury risk. Just my opinion.

            Reply
            • Steve S. says:
              November 19, 2011 at 3:52 pm

              I’m not familiar with Wainwright, but Joba had an arm injury on draft day, which is why he fell to the Yanks in the supplemental round. It was either bicep or forearm, which could signal TJ.

              Reply
              • UYF1950 says:
                November 19, 2011 at 4:34 pm

                Steve S. – That’s over 4 years removed from the start of the 2011 season for Joba. Couldn’t it be just as likely maybe even more so that Joba’s problem was a result of if you’ll pardon the term of all the “jerking” around with relieving, starting then the “Joba Rules” then relieving again. Just a thought.

              • Steve S. says:
                November 19, 2011 at 7:43 pm

                That isn’t the point. If someone keeps injuring a certain part of their arm over and over again, chances are there’s a flaw in their delivery that’s causing it. What caused the initial injury with Joba is likely the same thing that sent him to Dr Andrews 4 years later, namely some flaw in his motion. If Hamels keeps hurting his arm, even in minor ways, that doesn’t bode well for him as he ages.

  3. fredweis says:
    November 19, 2011 at 3:14 pm

    I can’t see any good reason why the Phillies trade Hamels. The injury thing is a joke. Not one serious injury on his resume.

    The Phils have more than enough revenue to afford him, are chasing another World Series ring and aren’t desperate to develop younger players.

    Likewise I see no reason why Hamels would want to sign anywhere else. He’s had great success and the Phils arguably give him the best chance to continue that success.

    Reply
  4. T.O. Chris says:
    November 19, 2011 at 6:22 pm

    The nature of pitching carries with it injury risk. Throwing a baseball is an unnatural motion for the human arm. Doing so at excess of 90 MPH, 100+ times a game, 33 games a year is always going to carry a risk of injury with it. Some carry more of a risk than others, and while I concede he is no Randy Johnson when it comes to his injury history I wouldn’t be worried about a breakdown. I’d have no problem giving him a 5-6 year deal easy, though with all players in general 6-7 year contracts rarely workout for the entire deal.

    None of this will matter anyway as I believe he will stay a Philly for the long term, but if he became available I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to try and sign him.

    I can’t honestly say there is much more injury risk in signing a 6’3, 175 pound lefty over signing a 6’7, 300+ pound lefty and we did that. If anything I would be worried CC’s body will breakdown of stress before I would worry about Hamels arm.

    Reply
    • Steve S. says:
      November 19, 2011 at 7:50 pm

      Since you brought up Sabathia, here’s his injury history:

      http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=SABATHIA19800721A

      Mostly lower body stuff, including the knee cleanup he had last year. But remember how the Yanks added a clause in the extension on how the options don’t kick in if he has a shoulder injury? 2 of them in 2004 and one in June of 2009 that I wasn’t even aware of. Teams don’t add clauses like that for no reason, the Sox did the same thing with Lackey’s elbow.

      Reply
      • T.O. Chris says:
        November 19, 2011 at 8:02 pm

        That clause is so limited though it’s almost a certainty that it vests. If they were really worried about it in the short term they wouldn’t have re-signed him.

        Still though I think it’s overboard to suggest you would want Hamels for more than a 1 year rental, or possible 3 year contract.

        Reply
  5. T.O. Chris says:
    November 19, 2011 at 8:23 pm

    I would also add that sometimes past injury history doesn’t indicate future injury projections. For instance the biggest concern for most people when signing Burnett is health. Before 2008 AJ had started 30 games only once in his career, and he was considered an injury plagued starter. Since that point he has had 4 straight seasons of 32 starts or more. He has been ineffective as he has lost his stuff due to age, but that has nothing to do with his health. In fact he has been remarkably healthy in his time as a Yankee, much healthier in fact than anyone thought he would be.

    He by all accounts fixed the injury flaw in his mechanics. Because of this he has been healthier at age 30 and beyond than he ever was before 30. That would mean Hamels, or anyone for that matter, could in theory do the same.

    Reply
    • Steve S. says:
      November 20, 2011 at 7:45 am

      Burnett’s a great example of someone who was injury prone and learned the importance of doing what it takes to stay on the field. Most pitchers have some flaws in their mechanics, but most can stay off the DL if they do their strength and conditioning work. By his own account Burnett learned that from Halladay, and has been healthy ever since.

      Conditioning can be a big difference maker when it comes to health. Someone like Liriano has been notoriously lazy, it took him 2 years to recover from TJ. Then he showed up in camp last year out of shape, hurt his shoulder and wasn’t right for the first month+ of the season. I don’t know if Hamels does all his work or not, but that could be the cause of the arm issues and could be correctable. Hamels played with Halladay last year, I’ll keep an open mind that he will learn a thing or two from him as AJ did.

      Reply
      • Steve S. says:
        November 20, 2011 at 7:57 am

        BTW-If you want a great example of a pitcher who was a walking MASH unit early in his career and then later became known as having an indestructible rubber arm, check out David Wells’ career. He was always hurt in the minors, after breaking 150 IP at age 20 he barely broke 100 after that and missed his entire age 22 season. He was working out of the bullpen until his late 20s because the Blue Jays thought he just couldn’t hold up through a full season of starting every 5th day. Then he became very reliable in his 30s (200+ innings 9 of 10 years age 32-40) and pitched into his mid 40s.

        Reply
        • T.O. Chris says:
          November 20, 2011 at 12:08 pm

          If you haven’t read Well’s book I highly recommend it. He goes into great detail about his entire injury history, and he even talks about how he almost quit baseball after suffering a brutal injury in the minor leagues. He was ready to walk away when his pitching coach convinced him to rehab and give it one more try. He also goes into great lengths about his back problems in the latter half of his career and how much it affected him. At one point he was taking a needle almost every other start simply to get on the field, before an eventual back surgery.

          It’s also a really funny book and a great read for any Yankee or baseball fan.

          Reply
  6. bottom line says:
    November 20, 2011 at 10:26 am

    “He has a relatively slight build (175 lbs) for a power pitcher his size (6′ 3″) and guys like that typically don’t age well as they approach their 30′s”

    Would be interested in examples that prove this point.

    Reply
  7. Phillies Phan says:
    November 21, 2011 at 3:59 pm

    Hamels already said that he loves playing for the Phillies and he has no intention of signing with another team.

    Reply

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