Matt Imbrogno’s post this morning was a very important reminder that we should be skeptical of the hype on the latest great thing, which ties in very nicely to my post on the shiniest of new toys (not things Matt, come on), Yoenis Cespedes, who just emerged on the scene in the last few days.
By now I’m sure most of you have read about the much-hyped Cespedes, a recent Cuban defector and soon-to-be free agent whose representation released an epic (apologies to Joe Pawlikowski, but I think it fits here) showcase . Rather than breaking down the 20-minute masterpiece myself, I’ll refer you to Kevin Goldstein’s recap of the video, which accurately describes the absurdity of the whole production, and gives some scouting insight on the 26 year-old outfielder.
Cespedes is rumored to be one of the top position players to come out of Cuba in a long time, and the Yankees are apparently very interested. They recently had him for a private workout in front of a number of high ranking front office personnel (per Ben Badler and Joel Sherman), and a number of other teams have reportedly demonstrated interest as well (especially the Marlins). Rumors are that Cespedes is looking for a contract similar to that of , who signed a 6-year deal worth just over $30 million with Cincinnati. Would Cespedes be worth this kind of money, and will anyone give it to him?
Scouting foreign players is always a challenge. However at 26, a veteran of years in the Cuban professional league and world competitions, Cespedes is different than a typical teenage signee from the DR. Kevin Goldstein describes Cespedes as “arguably the best all-around player to come out of Cuba in a generation”, and as a 5-tool centerfielder with speed and power (recently setting the single-season home run record for the Cuban professional league). Compared to Chapman, he would seem to be a much safer signing, because many scouts thought that Chapman’s command and mechanics would land him in the bullpen. Since Cespedes is 26 and in his prime, scouting him is less about projecting the development of his talent in future years and more about figuring out how his game will translate to the MLB.
The Yankees’ interest in Cespedes may be genuine, but for now they have no spot for him in the starting lineup. This means that the Yankees would have to trade an outfielder (probably ) to open a spot for Cespedes, or else send Cespedes to the minors for a year. I imagine Cespedes would not want to play in the minors (though if he’s getting paid enough, maybe he wouldn’t care), so it is possible that he would prefer to go to a team that can promise him a spot in the big leagues.
If that is the case, I think the Yankees should pass on Cespedes. He is certainly an intriguing talent, but the Yankees already have 3 very good outfielders, and it would not be worth shipping off a consistently productive player in Swisher (unless you can get a good pitcher in return) to open a spot for a major question mark. To be consistently competitive as the Yankees are, they need to have certainty of a high level of production, and bringing in Cespedes would be a huge risk.
However, if Cespedes would be willing to spend a year with Trenton or Scranton and get accustomed to the American game, I would be all for signing him (at the right price). For reference, the Rangers were able to send , another Cuban outfield signee, to the minors last year (though Martin is a few years younger). I have no idea if the hype on Cespedes is legitimate, but 5-tool outfielders don’t come along very often, and are usually not available to the Yankees in the draft. Occasionally these types of players can be signed through amateur free agency in Latin America, but at 16 it is much more a gamble on projection. Cespedes is 26, so the Yankees would be paying for what he is rather than what they hope he will become. With Swisher on a 1-year deal, it would be nice to have another option in the upper minors should he have a down year or demand a bigger contract than the Yankees would want to give him. It would also give the Yankees some flexibility to include in a trade for a front-line starter should the right deal come along.
I have no idea if Cespedes’ talents match the hype, but needless to say, I’m intrigued. A number of Cuban players have had success in the US, including , , , and of course Orlando and . The level of competition in the Cuban league is well known, and I imagine that the cultural change will be less difficult than it would be for a player coming from Japan (because so many major league players speak Spanish). Consequently, if the talent is there, I don’t have as many concerns about it panning out. I don’t know if he deserves or will get a Chapman-like contract, but the bidding will be high for sure.
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Is there any real risk to a 5 million dollar a year contract (30 million/6 years) for a team like the Yankees? Kei Igawa was a huge disappointment, but does anyone really believe his 20 million dollars over 5 years cost us anyone in free agency? I mean really at that price he’s worth the chance.
As a team we have very little depth in the minor leagues, and the players we do have don’t really suggest they will be forces at the major league level. Slade Heathcott probably has the most upside, but he’s still quite a bit away, and has a lot of holes to overcome.
If the Yankees like what they see in the workouts the only real questions left are is he really 26, and would he be willing to go to Scranton or come off the bench for a year. I’d be more worried about the age than anything.
One option not mentioned is that the Yankees could trade Granderson after next season if they don’t intend to re-sign him, and slide Gardner to CF and Cespedes to LF. He could go to Scranton or come off the bench this year, play RF next season, and move to LF/CF in 2013. I know trading Granderson isn’t anything anyone wants to think about right now. But if he has another monster HR season, it may be smarter to trade him for a starter instead of extending him into his mid 30′s.
There’s not much risk to the Yankees in a contract of that size unless it forces them to make other roster changes (such as dealing Swisher or Gardner) to accomodate Cespedes. If Cespedes wants a starting spot in the bigs immediately then it is a risk, but if he’s willing to spend a year in the minors/bench, then the risk is pretty small.
The Granderson trade option would be interesting, but that could only really happen if Cespedes becomes a star-caliber player (which I’d be happy with). Also, when was the last time the Yankees sold high on a major league player in a trade? I can’t really see that happening, though I suppose if somebody makes a big enough offer..
I agree there. I certainly wouldn’t trad Gardner or Swisher (unless blown away), to accommodate somebody who we have no idea if he can play or not.
Do you really see Granderson getting an extension? I always looked at his time with the Yankees being dictated by his original contract he came over with. He’ll get both options picked up, but after that he’ll be 32 or 33 and ready for a steady decline. I just don’t think his skill set carries on very well. A small power guy, who relies on quick bat speed to generate his power, and his defense is completely tied around speed. Grandy is one of my favorite players on the team right now, but I would be pretty mad if he got a 3-5 year contract at the end of his current deal.
Granderson getting an extension probably depends on whether he can maintain this high level of production (or not decline too much). I agree Grandy is probably not the type of player who ages well, but I don’t think he’ll be traded before his contract is up.
He should still be very productive by the time his contract is up, and I imagine the Yankees will likely ride the contract out rather than trade him. The potential exception would be if the Yankees go after Matt Kemp, at which point they could look to flip Granderson.
You may be right, and that is very likely what WILL happen. But do you agree with it? I mean from my way of looking at things you get much more value out of the turn around trade after next season. You don’t let Grandy walk away and free agency only to get a draft pick, you don’t re-sign an aging outfielder to a contract you’ll regret, and you could really get a top of the line starter at almost any position if he posts another 35-40+ HR season.
I would love Kemp in pinstripes, but I honestly don’t think he makes it to free agency. If the Dodgers sell gets wrapped up before then, there is no chance he does. A new owner is going to want to lock him up long term, or trade him and recoup the value if he can’t.
If Cespedes works out as advertised (or close to it), his projected salary is a bargain. We can stick him in right, move Swish back to 1B and make Tex expendable instead. Swish’s salary this year is likely to be the highest he’s likely to ever see again, so locking him and his production up for another 2-3 years would be both a reasonable expectation and an economical one. I love Tex, but he’s on the decline and would still have lots of trade value for someone looking for a big bat that can still flash the leather. Makes more sense to me dumping a clearly declining player with current trade value than making a move based on a guess when one of our team’s two best players is going to peak.
Interesting suggestion, though honestly I don’t think Teixeira has very much trade value with his big contract. I’m also more confident in Tex’s offensive production going forward than Swisher’s, so unless you get a good return for Teixeira (more than a salary dump), you are weakening the major league team.
I don’t see anyone in baseball who could, or would take on Teixeira’s contract at this point. Both Pujols and Fielder are free agents, if you want to take on big money and a long contract you got that route. You’d have to eat almost the whole contract, and Teixeira isn’t playing bad enough for a salary dump. That would simply make no sense.
If you were going to move Teixeira I don’t see why the Yankees would re-sign Swisher long term. They would be better off playing Montero at first in that scenario, and actually getting him a position.
Besides all of this Teixeira had a better wOBA, SLG%, and WAR than Swisher this season. Plus he is twice the defensive first baseman Swisher is. Not to mention Swisher loses a lot of value in his bat moving from RF to 1B. Nothing about it makes much sense.
T.O. Chris, the fact Tex has a full no-trade and is guaranteed another $112.5 mil over the next five years, of course, renders him virtually untradeable and is not lost on me. He’ll certainly hang onto that job like grim death until the end. And the fact his numbers are better than Swish’s are, likewise, uncontestable, but hardly the point. He’s declining, Grandy’s ascending, and I was simply trying to show my distaste for the idea of playing a lineup bingo game that makes arguably one of our two best players expendable in the near term when we’re just a piece or two away from the promised land — or, in the context of this particular thread, the DR via Cuba. Sorry if my dry reaction got lost in the translation.
While Tex may be on a decline as he is past 30, there still a couple really good years ahead if he can stop being so pull happy. An increase of BABIP to .270 makes him a very solid five WAR player.
Hey man I wasn’t trying to offend you or anything. I was just refuting that he had “lots of trade value”, or that it would even make sense to trade him and sign Swish long term. We just must have gotten lost in translation at some point, or something.
However to say that Granderson is “ascending” I think is somewhat false. I believe he is really plateauing, and the likelihood he ever has another season this good is very slim in my opinion.
I wasn’t however trying to say we should get rid of Granderson, and I certainly didn’t mean to imply he was “expendable”. He certainly isn’t, and even if he doesn’t repeat 2011 next year he still provides tons of value in CF for the next 2 years. I was simply saying that if the choice is between two years of Granderson and letting him walk for maybe nothing (depending on the new CBA draft pick policy). Re-signing him to a long term 3-5 year deal. Or 1 year of Granderson and trading him at his peak level of value for a top of the rotation starter. I choose option 3. I think it’s pretty unarguably the most value seeking option. I don’t consider that “lineup Bingo”. I just think it’s smart baseball business to re-evaluate every player every year.
I would in no way however be upset with another two years of Granderson’s production in CF, or LF for that matter.
Watching the video, my first superficial impression is that his swing is too long. He shows good bat speed, but I might be skeptical of his ability to hit real Major League stuff. I think he would need a season or so in the Minors under the tutelage of a good batting coach.
I’ll admit I’m no hitting coach but I saw some good and some bad. The good is I saw a couple other way HRs in which his swing didn’t look all that unlike Jesus Montero. The bad however, I saw a lot of swings that looked Andruw Jones of today. Just a real hard, pull swing, trying to launch the ball out of the yard. Which is exactly what I think you are referring to with his long swing.
If you could get him to focus on trying to drive the ball the other way, not unlike Montero. You could end up with two really powerful right handed bats, that fit very well into the Yankee stadium design.
The good thing is we have a great hitting coach at the major league level in K. Long, who has re-tooled a couple of swings mid-season. I’m sure he’d love to get his hands on this kid, with that kind of raw power.
I think it all depends on price. Chapman seems like he has some good skills at CF, but once again no one really knows about him outside of the competition in Cuba, while good, still not MLB caliber. If the Yankees could get him for 5 to 6 million a year then you almost have to do it from the Yankees situation. At this point all he would have to do is be a 1-2 WAR player to be valuable which does not seem that much of a stretch if he can play center decently or hit 30 homers. The big thing as said is would he be willing to play some time in AAA whether it be six weeks, three months, or a year. At that point the Yanks could end up trading Swisher if they think he has potential for hopefully some minor league pitching prospects, because you can never have enough. However, this is the talent, along with Darvish, that you have to jump on because guys with that much upside whether 16,24, or 26 don’t come the Yankees way.
I wouldn’t trade Swisher in the middle of the season. I would hold onto him, and then let him walk in free agency to receive the draft pick compensation. There’s no reason to trade for prospects when the Yankees are trying to win next season, unless they have completely fallen out of the wild card race by the trade deadline. Which I think is next to impossible for a team with this much talent. Even if Cespedes is the real deal, I really doubt he will be as valuable as Swisher is next season. He likely won’t work counts much, and his on base skill probably leaves something to be desired. Riding Swisher through the playoffs, and possibly using Cespedes off the bench makes the most sense to me.
You never know what could go wrong. You could trade Swisher for some players who are years away, and then Granderson, Gardner, or Cespedes gets hurt and you are worse off than before.
Agree regarding Swish and the relative value Cespedes is likely to provide immediately. It’s times like this I don’t understand why, when a team “works out” a potential lotto ticket like this Cuban, our FO guys don’t bring along CC or one or two of our other top pitchers on the trip to throw him a simulated inning or two each. It would certainly be in the pitchers’ interests to help out the team and we’d have a far better idea where the guy stands development-wise. The way they run such things now strikes me as not much more reliable (if at all) than the NFL’s combine for potential draft picks. And as has been pointed out repeatedly, divining the likely skills tranposition from a foreign league to MLB is historically little more reliable than shooting a game of craps.
I would think agents wouldn’t really be too keen on that idea. If you’re trying to sell this kid as a Cuban phenom I would think the last thing you want is to have him trying to hit off of Sabathia.
Also I imagine none of the pitchers on staff have even thrown a baseball since the ALDS. Most go on an immediate vacation after the season, and don’t start throwing again until after the winter meetings.
These are just guesses though.
I would think if you were going to bring in a guest of some kind to go with you, the best would be El Duque. He’s somewhat of a Cuban legend at this point, and could relate to this kid on a level no one else in the Yankees organization can. He may not be able to help you with the physical baseball stuff, but he could help sell the idea of playing for the Yankees. As well as give a recommendation on the mental side of the kid. Not that you could learn a whole lot from a conversation, but better than nothing.
Heehee, I hear that. Of course the agents wouldn’t like it! For the chance to tap the Yankees billfold, though, I’d think Brian C. and company might come to some sort of creative accommodation in return for a “real” workout. …It was just an out-of-the-box thought. In any case, if we do wind up snagging this guy, I can’t see the Yankees not going all in with him as a 2012 starter and immediately running Swish or Brett up the flagpole as the lead player in a trade package for a blue-chip SP. …Just so happy we’re not here talking about Beltran tonight. If Boston pulls the trigger on a multi-year deal for him like they’re saying, it’ll be the highlight of my week. Their pitching situation is more mystifying than even ours!
I honestly see now value in trading Gardner or Swisher right now. Gardner probaby won’t return near the value he gives to the Yankees, and Swisher probably can’t be traded for any top end starter. Gardner could possibly be in a package deal, but at that point I think the cost becomes too great. Swisher on the other hand probably doesn’t represent enough value to a team unloading a real starter, since he isn’t under team control after this year, and he isn’t coming to you small market team cheap. Best to just hang on to both and let this kid work for a year in Scranton. If he makes demands let him go.
Not sure how much it matters really, but in the 2009 World Baseball Classic Cespedes hit .458/.480/1.000 with a double, 3 triples, 2 home runs, 5 runs and 5 RBI in six games.
This is what Wikipedia says his stats are from Cuba… Take it with a grain of salt since it’s wiki.
2003-2004- .302/.382/.503
2004-2005- .313/.403/.540
2005-2006- .351/.444/.649, 23 HRs, 78 RBI, 89 R in 88 games
2006-2007- .303/.402/.541, 17 HRs, 79 R in 89 games.
2007-2008- .284/.342/.552, 26 HRs, 78 RBI, 82 R
2008-2009- .323/.411/.601, 24 HRs, 76 RBI, 83 R in 87 games
2009-2010- .345/.426/.617, 22 HRs, 87 R in 82 games
2010-2011- .333/.424/.667, 33 HRs, 99 RBI, 89 R in 90 games
From what I understand Cuba is considered to be around the same level as triple A or triple A+.
I’ve only seen a few snips of his vaunted vanishing YouTube vid posted here and there. But from the many others online I see of him, he’d better learn to either put a little more giddyup in his HR trot or get used to a bullseye on his chin in MLB!
His swing reminds me a bit of Vad Guerrero’s. Somewhat similar body type and tools minus the once in a generation bat of course.
He doesn’t fill a hole on the roster per se but why shouldn’t the front office be open to making the team better? The way I see it if we were to sign Cespedes it would be as right fielder and we would likely trade Nick Swisher for an arm. Probably a good arm. If we stand pat we get another good year out of Swisher and then either give him a big contract into his mid-30s or let him walk. If we sign Cespedes to a six year, thirty million dollar contract to play right that would allow us to move Swisher, improve the pitching staff in the short run, and potentially improve the offensive core going forward. Worst case, we’re stuck with a cheap player who’s not quite what he was cracked up to be but given his raw tools and reasonable contract almost certainly a tradable commodity. Best case we have a special player to fill our right field spot for the next six years – six prime years – while making relatively little for a player of that caliber, as well as an improvement in the rotation going forward. What if we could flip Swisher for Brandon Beachy or Mike Minor? We could have a #3 or even #2 starter and a right fielder under team control for the next six years at a much smaller anual salary than our current right fielder is making in what is perhaps his last season with the team. I’m not saying this team HAS to go out and make a move to sign a Cespedes or look for a new right fielder. I’m saying if the opportunity presents itself – if the price looks right – it’s worth taking a look. The risk might be worthwhile.
I don’t get why signing Cepedes means trading Swisher. They are not, in my opinion, mutually inclusive.
What we need is a number 2 starting caliber pitcher, and I simply don’t see how Swisher can bring that back in any deal by himself. One year of team control, at 10 million dollars, for an on base right fielder doesn’t generate that kind of return. There is no long term gain for the team trading the pitcher. They have to trade a cheap, multi-year team controlled, young arm for 1 year of a decent sized contract, in an easy to fill position. Then they possibly have to re-sign Swisher to a long term, big money deal to make it worth the loss.
Swisher may bring a back of the rotation arm, similar to the Melky Cabrera trade. However that type of move wouldn’t help the Yankees in my opinion. It would only weaken the offense (for 2011 Cespedes can’t be as good as Swish), and give us yet another (possibly headache) back of the rotation arm. Which we are absolutley full of with Burnett, Hughes, Garcia, and Noesi. The Yankees need an arm to pitch behind Sabathia, and sit in front of Nova in the rotation. I simply can’t see Swisher filling that role in trade.
The biggest benefit of signing Cepedes would be to create depth in the outfield for this year, and have a ready to go replacement for Swisher next season. It would be silly to expect this kid to come in and play as well as Swisher will this season. Even if he hits the same amount of HRs his on base skills won’t be nearly the same. So to try and force a trade because of a signing makes no sense to me. If signing Cepedes means trading Swisher I’m not for it honestly.
Swisher isn’t going to bring in a top of the rotation starter but there is some middle ground between that and Freddy Garcia. Teams like the Braves, Giants, Phillies, White Sox, and Rangers have an excess of pitching and have spots that could be filled by a vet with Swisher’s skill set. There is almost certainly a market out there for Nick Swisher. That’s not to say I want Swisher gone. I don’t. I’m saying he’s moveable and that moving him could help the team in other areas.
I’d also point out that while Cespedes is unlikely to have Swisher’s on base skills early in this big league career, there is precedent for a player coming over at 25-26 years old and making an impact from day one. Alexei Ramirez didn’t spend a day in the minor leagues after defecting from Cuba and he hit .290 with 21 homers as a rookie while playing Gold Glove caliber defense at shortstop. He wasn’t nearly the kind of offensive talent Cespedes is either. I don’t know what this guy would bring to the table in 2012, but I don’t think we can rule out a major contribution if he’s really as gifted as scouts have said, especially when you consider how thoroughly he’s dominated some decent competition in Cuba.
Really, though, I think we need to look beyond 2012. We CAN choose how fast this window closes. Granderson, Cano, Tex, and Sabathia aren’t going to be around forever but I don’t think any of those player are on the downswings of their career. We can make shortsighted decisions – we can say signing Cespedes doesn’t make the team definitively better in 2012, so it’s not worth considering – or we can take the risks necessary to make this current and future core competitive for a long time. I think when you have the chance to sign a player with superstar talent who’s just entering his prime and can make an impact right away and the price tag is something around six years, five million a season… that’s a no brainer. You make room. You say yes and then you hang up the phone. There are some “ifs” in there. If the Yankees really see him as a superstar talent. If they think he’s ready to contribute at the big league level right now or in the near future. If the price tag is really a Chapman like contract. If we can answer yes to those questions though… why not? I’d take a loss or two more next season if it meant adding a superstar right fielder to this team for the next six years. That’s a risk worth taking.
I think you are missing the point.
I never said Cespedes doesn’t help the team in 2012 so there is no point. I am saying he SHOULD be signed, but just because we sing him we SHOULDN’T trade Swisher.
I would much rather go through 2012 with Swisher starting in RF, and then take the draft pick compensation when he leaves after the year. Which then opens up right field for Cespedes.
I’m looking at the short and long term of the deal. I don’t think it has to be one or the other as you are implying. It’s much more valuable to have this kid be in the minor leagues, or coming off the bench. While also starting Swish in RF.
Again my main point is that everyone seems to be saying if we sign Cespedes we trade Swisher. I don’t understand why that line is drawn.
Trading Swisher makes little to no sense. We already have plenty of 3-5 starters with Nova, Burnett, Hughes, Garcia, Colon, and Noesi all options. What we need is a number 2 starter. This is something Swisher can’t bring.
The Swisher question IMO is a side issue. The core issue is the total lack of minor league outfielder depth. Yanks will have to replace two pretty good outfielders in next couple of years and there is nobody in farm system on horizon. Heathhcott is 3 years away and I am doubtful on him anyway– far too many K’s. Murphy may be a better bet but could he play RF? And he is also 3 years away. So at some point in next year or two, Yanks will have to secure outfielder or two from outside system. Crespedes looks like a relatively cheap bet, assuming of course that Yankee brain trust is convinced he can hit in bigs.
Definitely a valid point, there’s no real replacement for Swisher in the minors should he walk after next season, and their best outfield prospects (Mason Williams and Heathcott) are several years away. The question is whether Cespedes would want to be minor league depth for a year, or if he wants to play in the majors right away.
I think it is all wrapped into one. If Cespedes is willing to come off the bench, or play in the minor leagues for a year there is no problem. But if he refuses to sign unless he starts from day 1, the Swisher thing becomes a major issue.
We shouldn’t weaken ourselves in 2012 by trading Swisher, just because this kid wants to start right away.
I agree he makes perfect sense for the Yankees when you consider the complete lack of depth in the system. I also completely agree that I am no where near sold on Heathcott. But I just don’t see a scenario where the return for Swisher makes it in our best interest to trade him. So because of that it only makes sense to sign Cespedes if he is willing to not start until 2013.
Just an fyi to my YA habituates: the Cespedes showcase video is back online in a hidden link: