More October fail for Jolly old St Nick
One of the main targets in the sights of Yankee fans looking for someone to blame for the team’s 2011 post season failure has been Nick Swisher. Some fans have never liked his high-energy act, feeling he doesn’t fit the ‘True Yankee’ mold of more quit professionals like Jeter or Mo. I’m not quite sure what a ‘True Yankee’ means, since the was anything but a quiet professional on or off the field. The (arguably) 2nd best was quite the Hell-raiser as well. There’s room for all sorts of personalities on a 25 man roster, but I will admit that I prefer players from the Gehrig-DiMaggio-Jeter-Mo mold more than others. But that’s a personal preference of mine. It has nothing to do with making sound roster decisions.
Swisher’s critics often point to his thus far anemic post season numbers () as evidence that he’s not the type of player who will get the job done in October. They say he’s a dead red hitter who has too many holes in his swing and can be pitched to by the better pitchers. There’s nothing other than a small sample of bad October numbers to back this up with. His spray chart show him to be a player who hits the ball to all fields, swings at strikes, takes his walks. In other words, he’s a good hitter no matter how you measure it. In his early days there were doubts if he would ever be more than a the classic Moneyball hitter, namely someone who hits .230 with power and patience. But in his 3 years with the Yanks, he’s batted .266 across 3 seasons. Defensively, he’s not the most pretty or skilled outfielder but he makes up for it with excellent instincts and a baseball IQ that belies his ‘good ole boy’ nature. He has been known to be streaky, we saw that in his first 2 months with the team in 2009 and again the final two months of the 2011 season. He did suffer a platoon split this year, batting .327 vs Lefties and .232 vs Righties, but in 2010 (vs L-.294/vs R-.285) and 2009 (vs L-.244/vs R-.251) there was no such issue.
So we’ve established that Nick is good at baseball, no matter how you slice it. Now let’s look at who might be available to replace him should the Yanks opt to decline his 10 mil option for 2012. Here’s the list of available free agents:
Right fielders
Willie Bloomquist (34) – $1.1MM mutual option with a $150K buyout
Milton Bradley (34)
Michael Cuddyer (33)
David DeJesus (32)
J.D. Drew (36)
Kosuke Fukudome (35)
Willie Harris (34)
Brad Hawpe (33)
Jason Kubel (29)
Ryan Ludwick (33)
Xavier Nady (33)
Magglio Ordonez (38)
Cody Ross (31)
Nick Swisher (31) – $10.25MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Josh Willingham (33)
As you can see, there’s not much out there that’s all that exciting. Some have floated the Carlos Beltran option, namely Joel Sherman and Chad Jennings. Sherman estimates Beltran will cost 42 mil over 3 years (14 per). While his offensive numbers are enticing (.900+ OPS from both sides of the plate in 2011) I can’t see rolling the dice on someone who’s had the knee problems that Beltran had the past two seasons. As Chad noted, Carlos “didn’t play more than 81 games in 2010 or 2009, and this season he was hurt soon after being traded to the Giants.” The last thing the Yanks need is to get older and more expensive. Its tough to argue the Yanks should walk away from a 1 year/10.25 club option for a healthy 31 year old and lock in to 3 years/42 mil for a 34 year old with bad knees. The best option for the 2012 Yankees in RF is already on the team.
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Steve, what about Jason Kubel? He’s young I think about 29 or 30 and he should be less expensive. Seems like at least an option if the Yankees are looking at one. While not a switch hitter he does bat lefty.
Or the Yankees could wait until the end of the 2012 season I think some very good options should emerge then.
Kubel is a horrendous defensive player, both in reputation among scouts and UZR. No thanks.
He also has done absolutely nothing in his postseason career. I’m not saying he wouldn’t in the future, but if you are going to knock Swish for his postseason numbers, you can’t consider Kubel an upgrade.
By picking up Swisher’s option you are simply “waiting for 2012″. Someone has to play RF, and for one year Swisher is as good as anyone you could get. No one available is worth giving a 3+ year deal to, when a 1 year deal with Swisher is available.
On Beltran…actually do I even have to? Does anyone take the MSM seriously? Buying a FA in his mid 30s on a multiyear deal when he has an extensive injury history, and is worse defensively than Swisher? Hes clutch some people will say. When? Back in 06 the last time he was in the playoffs? This idea doesn’t even deserve to be entertained. Who doesn’t like 1 year deals for productive players who are a lock to exceed the value of the contract? Especially when, if you wanted to, grab a free agent after this year whose better than him? Or trade him mid season if you end up going with one of the kids on the farm team? Not picking up Swishers option would be letting emotion get into your business. And we all know its nothing personal, its just business.
I totally agree. There are no outstanding FA options to sign in Swisher’s place, and despite his splits and struggles in the PS, I’ll take his nifty OBP and attitude any day.
His PAs in the PS were disappointing if only because he obviously seemed to press. I can’t find the stat, but I’d be willing to guess he saw less PPA than normal, which is bothersome, considering that is one of his strengths.
But he wasn’t alone with his struggles against Detroit and he certainly isn’t the reason the Yanks didn’t move on. Even if he was, there is no other viable option as an everyday RF at this point.
Great post!
let him go to camden yards he hits great there..no pressure.. i would try to trade for bosche from tigers..or give dickerson a shot..
You keep Swisher for one year, and then if he sucks it up in the playoffs, he done with the team, just in time for Kemp, Ethier, or the Yankees can invest the money in the plethora of really good pitchers who will be available. Oh yeah and resigning Cano, and doing something about the catcher situation. The Swisher option allows too much payroll and roster flexibility (something the Yankees will soon not have) to not be picked up. I know your pissed about the postseason, but really one more year to prove himself isn’t a big deal.
michael it is not just this year, it has been every year..no more chances to go home early again..we save 10mil..i rather have melky back ..and hurts to say..the kid had 200 hits this year.
Steve; you’re right, in terms of Swisher’s poor play in the post season, there’s nothing more to evaluate it other than a relatively small sample of October at-bats. But that underscores another point – it’s October, by definition there’s always and only a small number of games, replete with high pressure games and at bats. And for three seasons with the Yanks, over six series and 29 games, Swisher has done nothing but illustrate that he has not and likely cannot perform under that type of pressure.
I don’t dislike him (as if mattered if I did). He seems like a nice enough fella, although his goofy grab-ass act evokes a little too much Melky for me. I’d give some thought to Kubel, while simultaneously plumbing the depths of the trade market. If, as another post suggested (hoped for) Bosche becomes available, I’d move heaven and earth to get him.
Boesch would have to show that he knows there are acutally two halfs to a season before I’d ever consider him.
just like grandy had to prove here that he can hit lefties..joe.. paul o’niel…. remember how he came here and his lack of hitting lefties..bosche is an ideal fit and worth a trade just like these other two guys..kubel is a poor fielder..i agree with 161..if we can get him..
Boesch doesn’t have near the track record that Grandy had when we traded for him. True Grandy couldn’t hit lefties, but he did so many other things well that it was worth the gamble to give up a few prospects. It depends what the cost on Boesch is, but IMO I’d need to see more from him before I give anything else up. Especially considering we already have a relatively cheap option in RF at the moment. Maybe reasses this is 2013.
how about paying ellsbury and play him in center or right?
he won’t come here..
or is he not available till next year? I thought he was a free agent this year for some reason.
I look at the the replacement for NICK SWSHER and I feel the he is a better choice all oters players are sone else rejects
paesano…he is one in the same rejects, and should put him back out there..nobody gives him 10 plus mil.. we let damon go and swisher can not shine his shoes..ever..
Michael Cuddyer is miles above Swisher as a RFer – and for the same price. Nick is likeable and a fan friendly presence, but is a mediocre outfielder, streak hitter, and “not-too-bright” when it comes to baseball instincts (baserunning, throwing to the right base, advancing runners) We have all seen his post-season meltdowns. Obviusly A-Fraud’s contract is too exspensive to get rid of, and Tex is a great defensive presence in poastseaosn (even though he doesn’t hit)…so time to go, Nickie…see ya!
joe ..right on..
I would like to see the Y get Michael Cuddeyer. He has an excellent post season record (see mlb.com for stats) and plays a very nice RF.. I like Swish. He has a ton of energy and it sounds like he has an excellent clubhouse presence. Still, in NY its all about post season production. With Swish being a streaky hitter, if he would have had at least one postseason in which he got hot,or at least had one or two clutch hits I would say keep him. Try to sign Cuddeyer. If Yanks get him, let Swish go..
How about Chris Dickerson? He’s young,left-handed batter and fast. Better to develop your own,rather than pay for someone other team doesn’t want
i would have played this kid in game 5 with no problem ..girardi didn’t have guts to do it..
He’s not “our own”… He’s someone who has been rejected by other teams, and I believe he is 27.
Swisher needs to go, we need someone to produce when the time counts to do so and Swisher aint getting it done
and never will.
Just found this area. As for Swisher, he should stay. Unless the Yankees are able to trade for Heyward(highly unlikely), they are better off with Swisher. And he wasn’t the only one who slumped offensively. If you look at the season as a whole, you’ll notice that when the offense was hot, they usually rolled. But when the offense slumped, they stunk up the place. It looked like a power outage, so to speak. The offense as a whole needs to be evaluated. If anything, I think the Yankees should consider moving A-Rod to a DH role in order to keep his power numbers up and going after a 3B this offseason. A-Rod just doesn’t have the healthy body to be a full-time 3B anymore.
Why not trade Swisher for prospects, then use a package of those prospects and ours to get Kemp a year early via trade?
Please, please, please just so no to not so Swishalicous. His act is tired.
And for that matter, COMA Joe Girardi too. Guy can’t manage his way out of a wet paper bag!!!
trade for Reds 1b Joe Bova(sp?) convert to rf. Use Montero as DH and backup catcher. Go after Wilson as free agent pitcher. If you could package Tex for pitcher, then go after Fielder or Pulholz(sp?)