Montero wasn't as good as advertised in September. He was better.
I was quietly apprehensive when Jesus Montero made his late season professional debut with the Yankees in 2011. Yankee fans everywhere know the hype that surrounds Montero’s bat, but the Yankee organization itself hadn’t shown much faith in its top prospect. Montero had failed to break spring training with the team, and the Yankees had tried to trade him for Ace starting pitchers each of the past two seasons. My concern was that Montero would be a dud in his debut, further eroding the team’s perception of his usefulness while harming his once considerable trade value.
Instead, my fears proved unfounded. Over 18 games and 69 plate appearances Montero raked to a .421 wOBA. If anything, Montero increased his trade value, removing any doubt that his bat can step into a lineup and contribute immediately (he will not, however, be a .421 wOBA hitter for a full season). Unfortunately, it remains unclear how the Yankees intend to use their budding young star.
RAB’s Mike Axisa worded the conundrum perfectly when he reported that Montero was the fifth highest ranked International League prospect. “Montero’s bat is big league ready,” Axisa wrote, “but the Yankees will have to come up with a way to get him in the lineup for 600+ at-bats next year.” The Yankees have consistently faced this problem with Montero. The team doesn’t believe he can get the job done at Catcher, but it also can’t place Montero at DH because the Yankees intend to use that slot to give rest to aging position players and . Montero is a potential impact bat without a home.
If that is the Yankee position, then it is a series of excuses in search of a problem. Alex Rodriguez had a .361 wOBA in 2011, while Derek Jeter had a .332 wOBA. and , the two players the Yankees gave the most at-bats at DH, platooned a .371 wOBA against lefties for Jones and a .353 wOBA against righties for Jorge. Montero will not be as hot over the entire 2012 season as he was in September of 2011, but right now he projects to be a better option at DH than any other player the Yankees may put in that spot, both against lefties, whom he pummeled with a .506 wOBA and righties, whom he beat up to a .367 wOBA.
Two factors play against Montero. The first is the Yankees’ organizational bias against young players. Apart from a select group of pitching prospects such as or Manny Banuelos, the team gives the impression that all its other prospects have to jump through hoops (that have been set on fire) to break into the team’s cadre of regular players. The second factor playing against Montero is the team’s incorrect belief that it can’t put him anywhere. Unfortunately he may not be athletic enough to play Catcher in the big leagues, but why should that prevent him from being the team’s everyday DH? If Montero looks to be the Yankees’ best option at DH, then the team should play him at DH and be done with it.
For the past two seasons the Yankee offense has been uneven, and prone to painful slumps as a result of this. The recent ALDS was a classic example. The Yankees scored a combined 19 runs in the two games they won, but only nine runs in the three games they lost. The average production is great, but the distribution is not. While the Yankees’ primary need remains starting pitching, the team also needs another offensive catalyst. Right now Montero is a low-cost, high-upside candidate to be that catalyst. There is no down side to giving him the everyday DH’s job, against lefties and righties to maximize his development. If he succeeds the Yankees have another solid bat to bludgeon pitchers while increasing his trade value, if that is his future. If he fails, an increasingly unlikely prospect, he’s young enough for the damage to be limited. What doesn’t make sense is blocking his promotion to give DH at-bats to the team’s aging players. If Montero is a better option at DH, he should be played at DH. If A-Rod or The Captain need half a day off, then they just as easily need a full day off and should be given that instead. Either way, the Yankees need to end their ambivalence toward Montero, now that it is clear that this ambivalence is harming the team.
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Couldn’t agree more, Mike. All this clamor about his defense, oy. He’s not a catcher; that’s fine, they have one already with a few others in the incubator. The Mariners’ lineup in the mid-to-late 90′s featured two Hall of Famers, Griffey and Rodriguez, a monster in Jay Buhner and Tino Martinez for a few seasons. However, whether it was May or October, every time I saw Edgar Martinez with a bat in his hand, my heart sank. Keep him and let him swing away.
“The first is the Yankees’ organizational bias against young players”
Uh, huh? I know this is a widely-held belief, but exactly what young players have they been holding out? They gave the left-field job to Brett Gardner and kept him there after a slow start, they put Robbie Cano in at second base in 2005 a year after he put up a .719 OPS at Columbus, they stuck with Nova from the start of this year, and gave Montero substantial at-bats in September of this year. Who, exactly, has been itching in the wings, ready to take over (and be better than) someone at 1B, SS, 3B, or outfielder?
It all depends on how you want to look at it. Gardner was not at all handed a starter’s job. He had to fight for it and the Yankees still platoon him when they shouldn’t. Nova also had to fight hard for his position and the team tried to go with veteran arms before giving him more of a role. Furthermore, he was demoted to AAA this year in a move that may have helped him, but didn’t help the club. None of the players you mention, not even Robbie, was seen as a guaranteed bet on the big league club. Tony Womack needed to get hurt for Cano to have a job. My impression remains that the Yankees generally look to veteran talent before exploring young players as options.
And Wally Pipp had to get sick to give Lou Gehrig a chance. Sure, all of them had to fight to get the spot, but get it they did, even someone like Gardner, who was on no one’s radar.
*slow clap* Thank you, thank you, thank you. Getting Montero at bats is not a problem. I dont understand when people say you need to keep the DH spot open to rest the older guys. Its like sitting someone down to keep them fresh and injury free for a night is out of the question.
Heres my solution to the Montero question. He is the everyday DH. When Martin needs to rest he is the catcher. When Arod or Jeter need to DH than Montero is the catcher at the expense of Martin. However I am assuming that Montero is going to be a fantastic hitter in the Edgar Martinez and even Miguel Cabrera mold. I also have to assume that the scouts are right, and he wont be good at all at catching. Thats okay, because when Tex needs to DH…you give Montero a 1B glove and let him play. Tex’s contract is up in 5 years, Montero’s arbitration years are up in 5 years. if hes passable at catcher then he stays at catcher. I would rather see him end up as our first baseman and have a better defensive catcher (Romine, JR Murphy, or Sanchez) end up behind the dish. Two young cost controlled players who are good at what they do is better than one.
“Resting” older players as the DH means about twenty games per year for each one. If Jeter and A-Rod do that, it means 40 games, a reasonable number for Montero to catch. Add another ten for good measure (say, when Martin sits) and that’s a total of 50. If Montero shows he cannot handle it, then he’ll DH a few less games or Jeter/A-Rod will get full days off. Romien gets a half-season or so in Triple A, then slides into the back-up/future full-time catcher role, if his bat justifies it.
Thanks for the comments guys. I appreciate them.
My one sentence summary of this post is that Montero should break camp as the big league club’s DH in 2012, regardless of the kind of spring he has.
If he continues to produce it is more important to give him a chance to hit every day than it is to give someone else 1/2 a day off. Give the old guys the entire day off and let Montero show us what he can do.
Yeah I can get a bit wordy when I get on a roll. But if he is as good a hitter as advertised, he is the future of the organization. A big part, a conerstone, cheap, and cost controlled. Necessary on a team that has a lot of players who are under contract way beyond their prime years.
This probably sounds crazy, but if Montero is not a major league catcher why don’t the Yankees move him to lets say right field? If he is the Yankees fourth outfielder / DH (If Swisher’s club option is picked up) in 2012 he will gain some experience and could possibly be the full time right fielder in 2013. That will keep his bat in everyday and will give some players 1/2 days off.
Having seen him several times at Scranton, my comments are as follows:
Outfield – Not a chance. Think Travis Hafner. He is very big and slow, and will likely get even bigger and slower. I can’t see it.
Catcher – He will surprise. Not a Gold Glover at all, but for a 21 year old, he is not nearly as bad as what has been written. No reason at all that he can’t DH and BUC.
Hitting – When you project him at say age 24, it is difficult not to be very excited. Incredible strength and ability to square it up. No limit to what he could do.
Next Year – As you say, just give him the DH job. He is far too good to be in the minors. End of story. Also, let him catch some games. He is going to hit in the middle of the order eventually.
Clearly the Yankees know more than I but I hope they don’t plan on abandoning all plans for him to catch. Wouldn’t that be a bit soon?
I will be the one dissenting voice here, because I think everyone is missing the big picture. Montero as a DH simply means he doesn’t have as much value to the Yankees as he does to another team that could play him at Catcher or (more likely) his eventual home at 1B.
Let’s put a few things on the table. We all know the Yanks love Russell Martin and Tex isn’t going anywhere. So the only long term place for him to get regular ABs is at DH.
Now lets look at leaders in WAR at DH
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=dh&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&players=0
Next leaders in WAR at 1B
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&players=0
A top flight DH is worth 3-4 WAR. A top flight 1B is worth 5-7 WAR.
Now let’s say a team has a 5+ WAR pitcher who’s contract is expiring that they can’t re-sign. The Yanks have a desperate need for that asset, and will be better off as a team having him on the roster as opposed to Montero. The best use of Montero is to use the square peg to fill a need, which will maximize his value to the Yankees, and actually for both teams in the deal. That’s what trades are all about in an ideal sense. By contrast, he would be wasting away at DH, losing anywhere from 2-4 WAR per year in value even if he was among the best in the game.
I could not disagree more. I think looking at this purely in WAR terms strips a lot of context. The Yankees are aging on offense, particularly in the middle of the order, and they have few spots where you could see them actually getting better. 6 years of cost controlled middle of the order type offense holds a ton of value for a team that is locked into big contracts to aging players, even if those at-bats are coming at DH.
Agree wholeheartedly Moshe.One alternative I would take a look which I haven’t seen mentioned would be to consider shifting Montero to 3b. There is a history of defensively deficient catchers making this transition successfully including Torre in the 1960′s and more recently Sandoval with the SF Giants.Presumably Jesus has the arm strength and enough lateral movement to make this move as well. This would enable him to concentrate on his hitting while opening the DH spot for Alex and others as A-Rod continues to decline.