2011 ALDS Game 3 Preview | CC Sabathia vs. Justin Verlander redux, with some bonus notes on the changeup

Being that I already wrote a - preview, there’s no sense in rehashing the entire thing, so just click here if you need a refresher. The primary aspect of the initial preview post that changes is that they’re not at Yankee Stadium anymore, which probably slightly favors Verlander, though it’s not as if Sabathia’s chopped liver on the road.

One trend I did want to note prior to tonight’s game is the Tigers’ effective deployment of the changeup against the Yankees thus far in the series.

In Game 1, the Yankees saw 20 changeups, 7 of which were balls, 4 of which were swinging strikes, 3 called strikes, 3 foul and 3 put in play.

• The Yankees got one hit on the 20 changeups; a single. The other two balls put in play were groundouts.
• Two of the 20 were ball four.
• Of the four swinging strikes, two were strikes threes.

• saw 8 of the 20 changeups.
• Jorge Posada saw 6.
• saw 3, swung through two and fouled one off.

In Game 2, the Yankees saw 35 changeups, 14 of which were balls, 8 of which were swinging strikes, 5 called strikes, 5 foul and 3 put in play.

• The Yankees got no hits on the 35 changeups. The three put in play were two groundouts and a pop out.
• One of the 35 was ball four.
• Of the 5 called strikes, three were strike three, one to Curtis Granderson, one to and one to .
• Of the 8 swinging strikes, two were strike three – Mark Teixeira in the fourth and in the eighth.

• Robinson Cano saw 8 of the 35 changeups.
• Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira each saw 5 of the 35 changeups.
• Jorge Posada saw 4.
• Curtis Granderson saw 3.

Given the Yankees’ trouble with the change all season long, none of this really a surprise.

Justin Verlander throws a change nearly 20% of the time, and it was the 8th-most valuable in the AL (1.91 wCH/C). Game 4 starter only throws it 12% of the time, and it carried a negative run value this season. I would expect the Tiger staff to continue throwing the Yankees changeups until they show they can actually do something with them. Hopefully the Bombers’ lefthanded bats can make the proper adjustments.