A couple weeks ago, Mike Axisa of RAB contemplated on whether the Yankees could benefit from an early extention on Cano’s current contract. The Yankees had previously broken their own policy regarding contract negotions for Cano once before as they signed him to a four year, $30M deal that included two additional club options (in 2012 and 2013). Anecdotally speaking, although Cano’s by no means cheap now, he still is probably half as expensive as he could be on the open market (seriously!). In 2010, Cano’s 6.6 fWAR was valued at approximately $26.4M and this year’s 4.5 fWAR (which is still counting) is already up to $20.4M.
Mike concluded in his post that despite the inherent risk of a new long term deal, renegotiating Robby’s contract would behoove the Yankees.
In a perfect world, I think the contract would cover six years. The Yankees could guarantee his 2012 and 2013 options, then tack another four years on top of that. That would take Cano through his age 33 season, giving him enough time to land one more big contract, assuming all goes well. The money would certainly be substantial, something like $14M and $15M in the two option years, then $19M, $20M, $21M, and $22M in the four additional years. That’s six years and $111M right there, then throw in a signing bonus and a buyout of a seventh year option, and you’re talking $120M guaranteed. Definitely less than what he’d probably get on the open market after 2013, but also a freaking ton of money [that would provide Cano with the generational weath he's expecting].
Although I generally agree with the Yankees philosophy of not renegotiating contracts early, in this particular case, I couldn’t agree more with Mike’s conclusion. Aside from the () possibility of a discounted rate, the benefits of retaining Cano’s services speak for themselves — especially when contrasted against the uncertainty of the free agent market and the farm system as we currently know it.
Consider Robby’s production in the tables below.
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | PA | AB | HR | RBI | Awards | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | 18 | NYY-min | Rk,A- | 59 | 241 | 208 | 3 | 36 | .231 | .328 | .361 | .688 | YNK,STI · GULF,NYPL | |
| 2002 | 19 | NYY-min | A,A- | 135 | 599 | 561 | 15 | 81 | .276 | .319 | .437 | .756 | GBO,STI · SALL,NYPL | |
| 2003 | 20 | NYY-min | A+,AA | 136 | 571 | 530 | 6 | 63 | .277 | .322 | .374 | .695 | TAM,TRE · FLOR,EL | |
| 2004 | 21 | NYY-min | AA,AAA | 135 | 563 | 508 | 13 | 74 | .283 | .339 | .457 | .796 | TRE,CLB · EL,IL | |
| 2005 | 22 | NYY-min | AAA | 24 | 114 | 108 | 4 | 24 | .333 | .368 | .574 | .942 | CLB · IL | |
| 2005 | 22 | NYY | AL | 132 | 551 | 522 | 14 | 62 | .297 | .320 | .458 | .778 | 106 | RoY-2 |
| 2006 | 23 | NYY-min | AA,Rk | 4 | 18 | 15 | 0 | 3 | .467 | .556 | .600 | 1.156 | TRE,YNK · EL,GULF | |
| 2006 | 23 | NYY | AL | 122 | 508 | 482 | 15 | 78 | .342 | .365 | .525 | .890 | 126 | AS,MVP-22,SS |
| 2007 | 24 | NYY | AL | 160 | 669 | 617 | 19 | 97 | .306 | .353 | .488 | .841 | 119 | |
| 2008 | 25 | NYY | AL | 159 | 634 | 597 | 14 | 72 | .271 | .305 | .410 | .715 | 86 | |
| 2009 | 26 | NYY | AL | 161 | 674 | 637 | 25 | 85 | .320 | .352 | .520 | .871 | 121 | MVP-17 |
| 2010 | 27 | NYY | AL | 160 | 696 | 626 | 29 | 109 | .319 | .381 | .534 | .914 | 142 | AS,MVP-3,GG,SS |
| 2011 | 28 | NYY | AL | 130 | 557 | 512 | 23 | 95 | .303 | .346 | .529 | .876 | 130 | AS |
| 7 Seasons | 1024 | 4289 | 3993 | 139 | 598 | .308 | .347 | .494 | .841 | 119 | ||||
| 162 Game Avg. | 162 | 679 | 632 | 22 | 95 | .308 | .347 | .494 | .841 | 119 | ||||
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com:
Generated 8/29/2011.
Generated 8/29/2011.
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | RAR | WAR | oRAR | oWAR | dWAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 22 | NYY | AL | 18 | 1.8 | 24 | 2.4 | -0.6 | $ |
| 2006 | 23 | NYY | AL | 41 | 4.1 | 32 | 3.2 | 0.9 | $381,000 |
| 2007 | 24 | NYY | AL | 57 | 5.6 | 42 | 4.2 | 1.4 | $490,800 |
| 2008 | 25 | NYY | AL | 12 | 1.2 | 8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | $3,000,000 |
| 2009 | 26 | NYY | AL | 52 | 5.1 | 43 | 4.3 | 0.8 | $6,000,000 |
| 2010 | 27 | NYY | AL | 64 | 6.3 | 62 | 6.0 | 0.3 | $9,000,000 |
| 2011 | 28 | NYY | AL | 41 | 4.0 | 43 | 4.1 | -0.1 | $ |
| 7 Seasons | 286 | 28.1 | 254 | 25.0 | 3.1 | $18,871,800 | |||
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com:
Generated 8/29/2011.
Generated 8/29/2011.
Honestly, who’s going to provide better results in the immediate future? Dustin Pedroia? (assuming he’s healthy and not showing signs of aging, which is a major “if”)? Perhaps, ? Not that it really matters; those guys are all unavailable anyway. It’s not as if external candidates from around the league are itching to help the Yankees cause either. Here’s a fairly uninspiring list of second basemen who are expected to hit free agency in 2012 and 2013 (compliments of MLBTR).
2012
(34)
(33)
(34) – $1.1MM mutual option with a $150K buyout
Orlando Cabrera (37)
(37)
(36)
(41)
(35)
Jr. (36)
(32) – $4MM mutual option with a $250K buyout
(30) – $8MM club option for 2012 and $8MM club option for ’13
(30)
(30)
(36)
(32)
Jose Lopez (28)
(35)
(31) – $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout
2013
(32)
(35) – $8MM club option with a $2MM buyout
(32)
(29)
(32)
(31) – $10MM club option with a $500K buyout
Luis Rodriguez (33)
(35)
(33)
With the exception of Kinsler, who will probably demand a fairly sizable payday anyway, there is not another guy I would even consider remotely close to Robby’s talent level. Frankly, if the Yankees are considering who they should pay vast sums of money to — for what will likely represent at least some decline years — between either Kinsler or Cano, I’d just assume they stick with Cano. At least then they have the batting average to go along with the power.
In terms of internal possibilities, there are some considerations I suppose. Guys like Corban Joseph or David Adams are both prospects with some potential. However, these guys are both highly unproven ballplayers (neither of which have any experience in MLB). I spoke to TYA’s very own prospect specialist, Eric, regarding both these players and here’s what he had to say.
“The Yankees have two promising second base prospects in David Adams and Corban Joseph who have had success in the upper minors, and could probably be big league ready in the next two years. However, both have question marks: Adams has not played much since suffering a terrible ankle injury in 2010, and Joseph’s ability to stick at 2b defensively is not certain (though he has showed significant improvement). Neither of these guys project to be anywhere close to Cano offensively or defensively, though both could be above-average regulars at the position if everything goes well. Then again, Robinson Cano the prospect was not supposed to become the star that he is now, so I guess you never really know.”
Basically, on their best day, neither prospect is predicted to be as prolific as Cano, and on their typical day, they both represent a hell of a dropoff. Additionally, it is both unfair and unrealistic of us as fans to expect either of those kids to come up immediately and deliver MVP caliber numbers while simaltaneously adapting to the league. We all know that more often than not, baseball simply just doesn’t work that way.
The best part (in my eyes) of Mike’s proposal is that the Yankees would still be able to release Cano come the 2017 season. He’d only be 34 at that point (only a couple years past the point most second basemen begin to rapidly fade). If the Yanks wanted to extend him out yet again, they certainly could. He’d also be at a reasonable stage in career to potentially test the free agent market should he want too.
However, if the Yankees wanted to part ways, they’d be able to go that route before “it was too late” (another uber-expensive guy entering into his late thirties). Yes, the proposed contract would be an albatross in terms of duration and dollars, but at least it would be one that would occurr during the most desirable timeframe. By the time Cano ends the new deal, the Yanks would also have a better idea of which prospect is best prepared in the minors to make the transition or be able to make a better choice from what could very well be more desirable class of free agent second basemen.
Granted, this arrangment wouldn’t exactly be fair to other players on the team, but sometimes exceptions have to be made. That’s also part of the business of baseball. What this all comes down to is the fact that Cano is a tremendously gifted player. Given the volatility associated with the position in general, the prudent decision has to involve locking up a guy who is already a “sure thing.” Financial savings aside, there just isn’t another option for the Yankees that can deliver the way that Cano can during the immediate future; and as it just so happens, the desired contract duration seems to coincide with this way of thinking. Lock Robby up already!
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I doubt Cano would accept less than five years. He will have given the Yanks seven overall solid seasons through this year and will probably produce two more for nine total overall solid seasons, a year shy of a decade of them. How can you give a top-shelf 2B who’ll be only 30 years old at contract’s end less than five years? Cano might think “They gave me a four-year deal, now they want to give me another one – bleep that.” and be pissed. His agent Scott Boras will merely point to the current Jeter and A-Rod contracts and privately think 2014 Cano would be better than either and he’d be right. Jeter may not even be a Yankee in 2014 and A-Rod should be an overpriced shadow of himself by then the way he is going with his stream of injuries, homerun droughts, and getting older not better. Boras will probably figure there’s plenty of money to devote to prime-age Cano with Burnett off the books after 2013, Jeter after 2013 or 2014, Teixiera after 2016, and A-Rod after 2017.
I’d offer Cano five years at $20M a year for $100M total which would I believe be the second-largest contract by money given to a Yankee farm system player in team history after Jeter’s 2001-2010 contract. If Cano didn’t think that money was enough, he can sign elsewhere.
If you offer him 5 years at 20 per, what is the point of signing him now? That is just about market value and the Yankees would probably rather overpay by a couple million later then do that now and risk significant regression over the next two years… (Not likely, but possible)
The only reason to extend him now would the benefit of a discount.
correct
I’d offer him 5 years at $20M per after 2013.
Let’s see what he does next year and 2013.
I think he’ll have two more solid seasons after this one, but you never know.
I think the Yankees could explain it away, about “not breaking” the rule, since Robbie has two option years and not two guaranteed years.
Agreed, and also, how freaking badass was Cano’s granny today? Not sure I’ve ever watched an at-bat like that before absolutely knowing that the end result was going to be a ball put into the seats.
There was literally no chance Cano wasn’t taking Jakubauskas yard there. What a bomb.
I don’t see what the rush is. You have him for the next two years, during which a LOT can change. Unless you were going to save significant money off an estimated FA deal, why bother? You’re guaranteeing around 120 mil over the next 6 years, rather than pay him the 30 mil (which could be half since they’re 2 team options). For me to give up all that flexibility as a GM and lock in to guaranteed money for 6 more years I have to get a big discount on his FA years, and I doubt Robbie will go for that.
The Yanks always have the money to pay their FAs, and given that so much can change over the next two years I would just stand pat. Frankly, I think it makes the most business sense.
I thinks it’s possible that in the post-steroid era we may be witnessing the development of best player of our lifetime, In a word, Schmooov!
I wonder if he’ll have to move to third base in a few years due to his size. If that’s the case, maybe a top-tier second baseman comes along that the Yanks could snag…. Just speculating about something that has a lot of ‘what ifs’…….
right field..he has a canon
I am with Steve S. We will ahev the money in two years. I would amybe look to tack on another 2 at 18, and gaurantee the others, maybe with an option at 20M on the back. What would he get in free agency – 120 over 6? The savings has to be bigger to give up the flexibilty.
The Yanks should pick up his 2012 and 2013 options after this season so he knows he’s a Yankee through 2013, no him wondering if he’ll be one after next year. He’s still my 2B even if he turns out his worst year next year.
I’d give Cano 5 years and $20M as follows:
2014: $18M Jeter possibly off the books
2015: $19M Jeter off the books if he returns for 2014
2016: $20M Teixiera’s walk year
2017: $21M Teixiera off the books, A-Rod’s walk year
2018: $22M A-Rod off the books
2019: $23M (mutual option)
2020: $24M (mutual option)
Sabathia’s walk year would be 2016, 2017, or 2018 depending on how many years the Yanks give him after he opts out.
Cano could earn $123M for 6 years (average $20.5M per year) or $147M for 7 years (average $21M per year) under this contract.
HE IS THEIR BEST PLAYER GOT IT HE IS BEST SECOND BASEMAN IN MAJOR LEAGUES UNDERSTAND THAT– HE IS ONE OF TOP THREE PLAYERS IN MAJORS– HE MUST STAY