(Graphic courtesy of Tyler Wilkinson)
What makes a great manager? Is it a keen mind that grasps and applies strategy well? A foundation of organization and planning that allows the manager to rarely be caught off guard? A sense of the moment and the ability to improvise and go with his gut? The ability to handle the egos on his roster and survive in the media? All of the above?
Luckily, this is a question that the Manager of the Year voters never feel the need to address. Instead, they determine which team was the most surprising or had the most key injuries, and the manager of that club is dubbed Manager of the Year. Because defining good managing is difficult and quantifying all managerial decisions and actions is near impossible, voters take a shortcut and essentially award the “Manager Of The Most Surprising Or Resilient Team Of The Year” Award. Now, while the Yankees almost never qualify for that accolade, their performance this year, as well as ‘s actual observed performance, makes him just as good a choice as any for a postseason award.
While many predicted that the Yankees would make the postseason, few had them winning the division or finishing with the best record in the AL. Here at TYA, 9 of our 10 writers picked Boston to win the division, and all 45 of ESPN’s baseball experts took the Sox as well. A number of them had the Yankees missing the postseason entirely. Additionally, most pundits assumed that the Yankees would make a midseason deal to fortify their threadbare rotation, something that never came to fruition and likely would have lowered expectations if known before the season. As such, Girardi’s Yankees definitely qualify in the “exceeds expectations” department.
As for dealing with adversity, here are some issues that had to handle this season:
- His presumed #2 starter, , was terrible from the get-go and did not get significantly better as the season progressed.
- His #3 starter, , started the season reasonably well, but melted down in the 2nd half. Girardi handled the Burnett situation with aplomb, and something that could have created discord in the clubhouse instead remained an issue between player and manager.
- had a terrible start to the season and seemed to be becoming a clubhouse and media issue before his injury. However, once he returned from the DL, Girardi showed faith in him by plugging him back into an important role, and Soriano looks to be a key bullpen cog heading into October.
- and , expected to be important bullpen members, were both lost for the season. Girardi simply shuffled his relievers until he uncovered some solid options, and the Yankees once again have one of the best bullpens in baseball.
- started the season incredibly poorly, and many (myself included) were calling for him to play less and be dropped in the order. Joe showed incredible faith in the Yankee captain, and Jeter has responded by having an amazing resurgence. I have to imagine that he appreciates the trust that Joe exhibited.
- Conversely, was clearly nearing the end of the road, and outside of one blip, Joe has managed the move from regular catcher to part time DH to bench bat with aplomb. He recently allowed Jorge a few more innings at catcher and some frames at 2nd base, and gave him a chance to drive in the winning runs in the division clincher.
- Players like , , and went through extended slumps that spanned months, yet Girardi had faith in their talent and stuck with them. All three players snapped out of their funks and provided great value to the ballclub.
- has been injured for much of the 2nd half, yet Joe utilized his bench to cover that hole, and the offense did not miss a beat. Furthermore, has had a disappointing season, meaning the Yankees have gotten less than stellar production from their presumed #3 and #4 hitters.
Am I overstating Girardi’s impact on some of these events? Almost certainly. However, you could do the same for any of the other contenders for the award, and I doubt any comes out looking much better than Girardi. As we stand here at the end of the season, Girardi has navigated a tough second half schedule with one truly dependable starter, a number of key injuries in the bullpen, and some struggles from the middle of the order. Despite all that, the Yankees have won the division handily, will likely finish with the best record in the AL, and are reasonably healthy heading into October. Based on the way the honor has been awarded in the past, Joe Girardi is deserving of the Manager of the Year award.
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Larry/Moshe -
Have you guys ever tried to do some analysis around adjusted payroll? In other words, come up with an effective payroll number that only counts salary/game for active players on the roster. The Yankee number would clearly be lower than $200M (as it would be for probably most other teams). Maybe you could then compare various win/loss stats to that adjusted payroll number to argue for/against MOY.
Great post, great insight. I never really thought about Girardi as a candidate, but I think your points are very well taken
Great read Moshe! I know you think Girardi deserves the award but you don’t think he will actually win it though, right? It seems like every year the voting goes decisively anti-NYY.
When it comes to manager of the year, we all know there is only one thing that matters: the bunt. Girardi has been fearless in this area, regularly calling for bunts in situations that make little sense to managers that lack his mastery of baseball tactics. Time and time again Girardi chessmaster-like mind has found bunting opportunities that were so brilliant, even his critics had to admit they could not follow his thinking.
Bunting isn’t the ONE thing that matters though.
You are aware aren’t you that the Tigers, Rangers, Angels, and Rays have laid down more sacrifice bunts than the Yankees this year? That puts Girardi ahead of geniuses like Leyland, Washington, Sciosia, and Maddon. And it is the ONE thing that really matters.
Ah but they all bunted in situations that make sense according to conventional baseball wisdom, betraying the dull, unimaginative minds of those managers. It takes true genius to find times to bunt that make no sense to anyone, even after Girardi has explained it.
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MADDON
Terrific stuff, Mo. We hear ad nauseum about the advantages of managing in New York, but so many seem to forget how much there is to deal with here. Constant pressure to win, media bigger than anywhere but Boston, veteran egos, YES network demands on your time, and that’s all before you manage a single game on the field.
During the WFAN breakfast Francesa asked Cashman if he would like to be a GM in a small town, where he would actually get credit when things went well. Brian dismissed it, and likened being a small town GM to “retirement” compared to what he has to deal with here. People should consider that when downplaying what it takes to win in this town.
Throwing cold water on this: In what way have the Yankees really exceeded expectations this year?
They have a lot of good players signed. Those players are generally playing well. Looking at team WAR totals on Fangraphs, we are 3rd in hitting & 2nd in pitching in the AL. No other team is in the top 3 in both.
I’m not sure why Girardi should get credit for Cashman’s ability to buy low on Granderson, Swisher, Martin, or Colon, or the Steins’ ability to vastly overpay another team’s closer to be our 7th inning guy.
MOY will either (deservedly) go to Maddon, working with a $40 million payroll & a team WOBA of .317, or Jim Leyland, who took a team from .500 to 1st place. Most “experts” had the Yankees making the playoffs, but more ESPN folks had the White Sox or Twins winning the Central than the Tigers.
[...] Girardi for manager of the year? Somebody’s gotta win it, [...]
great insights, Moshe, and organized excellently. thanks.
[...] don’t like to define valuable. Moshe discussed it in his piece about Joe Girardi and the Manager of the Year award. The writers are beyond reluctant to define anything about anything and since they do that, [...]