It is easy to be frustrated with the Yankees’ performance over the last few games against the Orioles. The offense has disappeared at times, defense has been sloppy, and Zombie Scott Proctor was back, throwing important innings in a close game. Wednesday’s starting lineup featured a bevy of reserves including Brandon Laird, while Thursday’s game saw a veritable pu-pu platter of relievers taking over for Ivan Nova, including Aaron Laffey and the aforementioned Proctor.
Seeing these players playing important innings in close games would lead one to believe that perhaps with only a monumental collapse preventing the Yankees from earning a spot in October, Joe Girardi is not going all-out to try to win the division. Since the recent lineup and bullpen usage seems to strongly support this observation, the real question is not whether he is taking his foot off the gas, but rather, should he be doing it? My answer is strongly in the affirmative.
Dropping close games to a mediocre division rival is infuriating to watch as a fan, but given the circumstances the Yankees are dealing with, it is understandable to see the Yankee manager exercise some restraint. The of rainouts and double-headers have wreaked havoc on the Yankees’ September schedule, leaving them with only one off-day remaining (September 15). And even that day is not likely to be much of a rest day, as they will be making a long trip from the West Coast to Toronto. Playing over a game per day for the next few weeks is not exactly a recipe for keeping players fresh, so I’m glad to see Girardi using some of the available reserves.
At this point, using callups like Laffey and Proctor serves to soak up innings and help save bullets for some of the Yankee bullpens’ most important arms, to ensure that they are fresh and healthy come October. The same goes for using the bench players to give some of the regulars a day off. This is important in typical circumstances, but is especially so in situations when the team is getting little rest. With a playoff spot virtually locked up, I don’t see any need to risk injuries or ineffectiveness by pushing the Yankee regulars to their limits. It is not clear to me that there is any significant advantage to be gained by winning the division or locking up home field advantage, and would rather the team play to make it into the playoffs with a full, healthy, effective roster.
Would I prefer to beat the Orioles than lose to them? Unquestionably. But I don’t want those virtually meaningless wins to come at the potential cost of playoff losses down the line. I trust the Yankee manager to keep the workloads of his key players under control down the stretch. And honestly, I have a little selfish interest in hoping that Girardi will use a few of the prospect callups, including Kontos, Betances, and Brackman, allowing them to get their feet wet at the big league level in some low-leverage situations. I would obviously love to see the Yankees win every game that remains, but I would be satisfied for the team to figure out their optimal playoff roster, get everyone healthy and well-rested, and go into October ready to go to work.
I know the idea of losing the battle to win the war is horribly cliched, but in this case, I think it is directly applicable to the Yankees’ managing strategy over the last few games. That’s not to say that the Yankees aren’t trying to win at all, because they clearly are. Why else would Joe Girardi have used some of his regulars to pinch-hit in Wednesday’s game? It’s pretty clear to me that he’s trying to make the best of a bad situation, and I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here. It will be interesting to see if this pattern of utilization will continue over the remainder of the season, or if he will amp it up if the division stays close. While this strategy may not be particularly appealing to people who believe in the importance of momentum in determining how well a team plays, give me rest and good health any day.
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Thanks. A really nicely considered and generously spirited article. And I tend to agree with the sentiments. Possibly those two sentences are related!
Girardi should aim to win the division so the Yanks don’t start EVERY postseason series on the road.
LOL at the movie “Moneyball”, a movie about a team who has yet to win a World Series with Moneyball. ‘Love Brad Pitt’s hair haha. I’m not feeling Phillip Seymour Hoffman as a manager. At least it’s a movie maybe 0.1% of the American population will get which is always a good thing.
Did you read the book?
‘Don’t have to read the book.
The As under Billy Beane or after he left never won a World Series let alone won an ALCS with Beane’s “Moneyball” philosophy, but they did get knocked out of the first round by the Yankees who did not employ Moneyball nor get players with that philosophy in mind a couple of times.
Four straight ALDS appearances where five games were played every series and an ALCS appearance is impressive but advancing to the ALCS only once in five tries and not winning am ALCS game shows me Moneyball is not necessarily the way to go.
I believe in high BA with moderate to high OBP. I also believe in having at least five hitters or over half your AL team hitting .290 or better. It’s nice to have a team OBP of .350 or higher but when you hit .240-.260, it’s difficult to score runs.
I know Moneyball’s main proponent was OBP over BA and to not give away outs with bunts or stolen base attempts, so nice try at trying to make me look like I don’t know what I’m talking about.
‘Put it to you this way:
If I had to choose between having nine everyday players who hit like Cano and nine everyday players who hit like Swisher, I would choose Cano even though Cano’s OBP is lower than Swisher’s by a significant amount.
Swisher posting .250-.260 BA with a .370-.390 OBP is nice, but I’d rather he post .290-.310 with a .350-.370 OBP like Cano generally posts.
‘Say Swisher hits 25 for 100 with 13 walks for a .380 OBP and Cano goes 31 for 100 with 4 walks for a .340 OBP. I would rather have the 6 more hits every 100 AB than the extra 9 BB. That’s 36 more hits than Swisher in 600 AB.
There’s nothing wrong with getting on base less as long as you hit enough to make up for the less baserunners. Everyone has their own minimum BA they’d want to see posted so I won’t say what it should be (my minimum is .280.) Who gets on Cano for not posting high enough OBP? The guy usually hits .300 or better every year, drives in enough runs and gets on base enough that no one’s complaining. My only gripe with him if you could call it one is he hasn’t had the prime A-Rod-like season he is talented enough to have although he is in the middle of his prime so it’s possible i.e. I (we) hope it is.
I will say I would be more than happy if he produced his 2011 each year for the next decade and he’d be a first ballot Hall Of Famer if he did that (not to mention a collector of two or three ALMVP awards.)
In short, I’m for as high BA and as much contact as possible and I think OBP is more a lack of pitchers throwing strikes than the batter drawing walks. If we’re gonna give accolades to a pitcher for striking out 200 or more batters in a season, then we have to say 70 or more walks (to me bad pitching) is way more his fault than batters being patient at the plate.
CORRECTION: Beane is still the As GM. His team has been so irrelevant the past five years I forgot he still was their GM. So have alot of other people. He’s still collecting guys who can’t hit as seen by his team’s lousy offense.
Btw since when do I have to buy and read a book about Moneyball to get it or know what I’m talking about?
Again, OBP and all the other stats which promote getting on base and not giving up outs over BA.
Beane would rather have a guy post .250 OBP with a .400 OBP than .300 BA with a .350 OBP. I would choose the .300/.350 guy cuz guess who that is essentially in real life? Robinson Cano. As much as I love Swisher, I will take Cano with the bases loaded against Felix Hernandez over Swisher any day of the week because bottom line is Cano has a better chance of collecting a hit and driving in 1 to 4 runs with it than Swisher.
It’s all about hits, something Beane’s As had trouble collecting in the ALDS and one year ALCS.
Do not tell me the Red Sox employed Moneyball because their forte since 2003 when they started making the postseason on a consistent if not annual basis again has been starting pitching and a power-drive offense. They’re not a base-stealing team in general because they have the power and the little ballpark to not need it. If Ellsbury and Pedroia get on base to lead off an inning, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Ortiz, and even Crawford are not bunting them over especially if the game is at Fenway. They’re swinging for the fences.
OBP did exist before Beane, just sayin’.
Aside from the relievers included in the pu-pu platter, I think most would agree. But as a proponent of positive momentum, I say Joe should downshift and hit the gas to sweep the Red Sox at the end. Be a good last test for the back of the rotation.
I’m willing to give Girardi a pass on resting the regulars after the late night (and early morning) on Wednesday. After all, most of them (Cano, Granderson, Tex, Swish) had multiple chances to affect the outcome and didn’t get it done.
What bothers me is the use of Proctor. He’s another guy (like Mitre) that must have dirty pictures of Cashman and or Girardi because otherwise his presence on the roster is unexplainable. I would have no issue if Girardi had used a guy who may have some future like Kontos or Brackman. But Proctor, if he should be on the roster at all, should only be used to eat innings in blowouts.
As far as Girardi taking his foot off the gas, well that’s a product of the wild card system – it removes incentives to compete in situations like this. I can’t blame Girardi for acting rationally given the system he’s working in.
We don’t really know what kind of rest is best. As Bill James said, the point is to try to ask questions that are answerable, and as far as I know no one has reduced this to a quantifiable question. Last year, the Yankees rested all the way through September and looked flat in the playoffs anyway. Perhaps someone can look at games playes per regular in September and see if it correlates to playoff success, or something along those lines. But right now, I can’t say anything about it; I just don’t know.
Well, I can say a few things, even in ignorance, just because no one is going to stop me. Girardi is, in general, a rester. He runs guys through the DH to give them a half day or rest, he plays the bench guys every so often, he doesn’t play his catcher days games after nght games, etec. He does this through the season. Doesn’t that mean that the guys should be OK for a stretch run?
I would also say, again without really knowing, that the number one priority should be to get the team running on all cylinders for the playoffs. Is what Girardi’s doing helping that, or hurting it?
Girardi’s getting lucky: the Red Sox are losing right along with the Yankees. If the red Sox had won the last three games and the Yankees were now in second place, there would be howling.
This is a Yankee team is very inflexible. It doesn’t know how to “turn it on”; it doesn’t have a backup plan if something doesn’t work. It just shrugs and carries on. Maybe that’s all a matter of luck; maybe some of it has to do with rest, or playing regularly, or a mental approach, or Girardi’s managing, or something else. I don’t know and I doubt anyone else does, unless one of the biggies has done a study I haven’t read about, which is certainly possible if not likely.
Here’s the one thing I can say definitively: I don’t like watching this.
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