Earlier this month, when I took a look at the Yankees and how they fared when compared to average hitters at their positions, the one thing that shocked me the most was just how depressed offense at the hot corner was. , who was not having an Alex Rodriguez year, was still sporting a 123/118/129 adjusted line when compared to your average American League third baseman.
Before we go farther, let’s talk about A-Rod’s season. To say it’s been bad would be selling Rodriguez way short. When comparing all American League third basemen with at least 100 plate appearances, Rodriguez’s wOBA (.367) and wRC+ (131) are second only to Boston’s (.377 and 136 respectively). He’s also second in fWAR (3.9) to Youkilis (4.1) despite having 125 fewer plate appearances than the bearded Bostonite. Still, something just doesn’t seem quite right with Rodriguez.
And there is something off. The power just hasn’t been there. His IsoP is at .187 coming into today, which is the lowest mark he’s ever had in a full season. He’s hitting more balls into the ground and more balls into the air, which continues a trend that started last year. However, when he is putting balls into the air, they’re not traveling for homers like they have been in the past. Last year’s 17.1% HR/FB was a career low, but this year it’s down to 13.7%. It would seem that when A-Rod is hitting the ball in the air, it’s with far less authority. By the “eye test,” we’ve confirmed this, too. It seems like A-Rod has “just missed” a bunch of balls this year. Perhaps this is just the normal regression of a great hitter, but it’s pretty freaking awesome that a declining A-Rod is still right up there as one of the best hitting third basemen in baseball.
Yesterday at FanGraphs, Eno Sarris had a piece up about the declining offense of third basemen, and that just reinforces the point made at the end of the last paragraph. What we’re seeing from Alex Rodriguez in 2011 is not what we’re used to. But, he’s still an above average hitting third baseman. If this downward trend continues, it will make Rodriguez even more important to the Yankees than he is right now. Offense has long been a given at the hot corner, but as this position continues into its “bust cycle,” as Sarris described it, offense from there will be more valuable.
The future does remain a bit uncertain. We can argue that Rodriguez hasn’t been fully healthy in a long time and that as he moves farther along, he’ll get healthier and his production will rebound. However, he’s also getting older, which means that the likelihood of him staying healthy isn’t as strong as we’d prefer it to be. There’s also the issue of his contract, but I’m over that. It was a bad contract, but fortunately, it was designed to be front loaded. As the years move on, Rodriguez will be making less money. Even so, it’s a lot of money, but we’ve got to get over it and realize that Rodriguez still has the capability to be a valuable player. The Yankees are stuck with Rodriguez until the end of that contract, unless a team wants to be incredibly generous and take it off their hands, and there’s about as much a chance of that happening as there is of me sprouting wings when this post hits the ‘tubes.
The nice thing about Alex Rodriguez is that he’s performed at such a ridiculously high level for so long that even when he’s in (what may be) decline, he’s still above average for his position. That could be a product of the position going down and A-Rod treading water, but I’ll take it. Rodriguez is the type of player who can look like he’s treading water one week, then be setting world records the next. If I’ve learned one thing in my years of watching baseball, it’s not to doubt the talent of Alex Rodriguez.
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Freudian slip in the title? The missing letter might be misconstrued.
Small complaint: although I know you know it, it probably should be explicitly mentioned in this article that A-Rod was playing hurt part of this year.
A-Rod is as important as ever? Really? If his career ended this offseason, the Yanks would collect insurance money from his contract and not miss a beat signing Jose Reyes for SS (Jeter to 3B) and Carlos Beltran for DH.
Gardner
Reyes
Granderson in his walk year
Teixiera
Cano
Beltran in his walk year if he was signed for 2012 only
Swisher in his walk year
Martin in his walk year
Jeter (new position on the field and in the lineup, too bad if he doesn’t like it, I’m not sold on his recent resurgence)
I think Seattle would take A-Rod, but the Yanks would have to pay at least half of the annual salary part of A-Rod’s remaining contract (Seattle pays the other half and the $30M for his homerun milestones.)
I don’t wanna read “stop” or “it’s not happening” from anyone re: the Yanks getting rid of A-Rod. IF (look up the word “if”) the Yanks have had it with A-Rod, they will ATTEMPT (look up that word, too) to get rid of him. A new GM if Cashman is gone after this year is just that and with a new GM comes a new outlook.
Ichiro Suzuki is a free agent after next year and who knows if he stays with Seattle beyond that? Felix Hernandez won’t be a free agent for awhile but who knows if he stays with Seattle beyond his current contract? I doubt it’ll happen but what if he’s mediocre by the end of it? Seattle could have as little as one star for 2013.
Under my plan to get rid of A-Rod, the Yanks would have to pay $71.5M to Seattle as follows:
2012: $14.5M
2013: $14.0M
2014: $12.5M
2015: $10.5M
2016: $10.0M
2017: $10.0M
The Yanks would clear / A-Rod would cost Seattle $101.5M ($71.5M salary + $30M homerun milestone money) across six years.
If they could get an MLB-ready 3B they could bat ninth, that could soften the blow esp. if he’s a Scott Brosius-type. They’d have to beef up DH after this year, possibly get new players for C, RF, CF, and DH after next year and a new SS after 2013/14 with or without A-Rod anyway.
$71.5M a ton of money but paying that to get rid of A-Rod is better than paying $173M across the next six years including $30M for quite frankly hollow numbers to keep him. He cheated for three years and will probably be a full-time DH in the final three years of his contract which means he needed steroids and the DH to break the homerun record.
Oh btw I don’t post under multiple names. MXT is a friend who happened to be over and decided to post in my defense last night, so grow up. Wow, I posted as DI once, DI is short for my handle, guy. And if I posted under multiple names, wouldn’t I do so in every post? Yes, but I don’t do that.
Why would Seattle want to pay $101.5M for a guy that you think is finished?
I never said he was “finished” but thanks for putting words in my mouth, I am saying in so many words that he is nowhere close to being worth the money he is being paid.
He is a 25-30 HR, 95-110 RBI guy now. That’s very good, but the Yanks didn’t sign him to a new decade-long contract to post that, they signed him to post 31-45 HR, 111-130 RBI a year most of those years, I’d say for at least six if not seven years. Those days are sadly over. He’s finished as the offensive force he once was before his new contract, but nice try at omitting my qualifier. He is overpaid NOW. The guy was barely hitting them out before he got hurt e.g. 13 HR through 7/7. He’s barely made it to 30 HR ever since he signed his new deal. He’s 36. He gets hurt all the time now. This year is his 2010 Jeter year, it just is. His free pass is over.
Seattle can’t hit. ‘Say they took him on under my plan as early as next year. He’d be their best all-around hitter, do not tell me Ichiro or Justin Smoak would be. A-Rod would most likely post the most HR and RBI in the cleanup slot. The Mariners could have him DH a bit – who’s their DH?
35-103 in 2008
30-100 in 2009
31-125 last year
Nice, but ordinary and nowhere close to what he did before that.
13-52 this year. At age 36.
The homerun record is meaningless when he cheated for three years (2001-2003) and he’ll be a full-time DH for at least three.
OK, so he’s not finished. That doesn’t change my question to you in the slightest. Why do you believe that Seattle would want to pay $101.5M to Rodriguez over the next six years? How would that benefit them?
More to the point — since, presumably we’re both Yankee fans — how does this help the Yankees? Why would the Yankees want to pay $71.5M to be without Rodriguez? If, as you said, “[h]e is a 25-30 HR, 95-110 RBI guy now. That’s very good” then how would the Yankees be better served without that level of production at a cost of $71.5M?
I’m sure Jeter really cares if you are sold on his resurgence.
You would gain credibility if you said for once something like “I was full of shit. I called him CCHA. I was wrong. He has something left.”
“If they could get an MLB-ready 3B they could bat ninth, that could soften the blow esp. if he’s a Scott Brosius-type.”
Or, they could just keep one of the best hitters in the history of baseball. I’d rather have that than a Scott Brosius type hitter.
+13
I like the rationale, Matt. The jammed thumb seemed like a Freudian slip, too; but, I’ll be glad to believe Alex that his power was sapped by the knee for the prior month. Even without the long ball, I’ll wager the doubles he hit with men on base had him on pace for the 125 rbi level, which is not fashionable anymore, but rather telling, nonetheless.